The war between Israel, the US, and Iran continues: the Strait of Hormuz is repeatedly closed and reopened, leaving stock markets confused. And the crypto market?

The war between the United States-Israel and Iran has entered its third month: the Strait of Hormuz, a fundamental chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG production passes, remains semi-blocked, even though Iranian and US delegations seem intent on reaching an agreement. Global stock markets, of course, have no idea what the future might hold but remain highly optimistic. The crypto market follows, but has been feeling the strain lately: what is the situation?

War in Iran: the timeline of the conflict

On the Italian morning of February 28, the United States and Israel officially launched a series of coordinated bombings against Iran: in less than 24 hours, they achieved one of the main goals of the raids, eliminating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. A few hours after the event, the Revolutionary Guards, one of the three Iranian armed corps, declared the Strait of Hormuz closed: “If anyone attempts to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships on fire”.

In the days that followed, the traffic in the Strait was drastically reduced: media and international security organizations reported the presence of naval mines in the channel. The price of energy commodities, consequently, skyrocketed: through the Strait of Hormuz passes between 25% and 30% of global oil and LNG (liquefied natural gas) production. With the opening of the front, Brent—the international benchmark—skyrocketed and remained steadily above $100 a barrel.

The three subsequent months saw a continuous alternation between mutual threats and negotiations, but the warring parties have managed to find common ground: officially, as we write, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran have temporarily buried the hatchet.

In this regard, over the weekend of May 23-24, major international media spoke of steps forward toward a definitive end to the war: CNN, for example, reports that “the United States and Iran show signs of progress in efforts to end the conflict, but crucial details of a framework agreement are still being negotiated”.

Although the situation is not entirely clear, the aforementioned news has brought the price of Brent below $100 a barrel for the first time in more than a month.

The performance of major stock indices

When energy prices grow out of proportion, the real economy suffers: companies spend more to produce due to the across-the-board increase in costs, such as transportation and electricity in general. The result: the price hikes, in the end, are passed on to the consumer, who sees a generalized rise in prices, also known as inflation.

And markets know all too well that rising inflation increases the likelihood of an interest rate hike—the next FOMC meeting will take place in less than a month. What does all this mean in numbers?

Starting with the United States, the three main indices have returned well into positive territory: since day one of the conflict, the Dow Jones is gaining 3.4%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have set new All-Time Highs and are gaining 8.6% and 18% respectively—the Dow Jones suffers more than the other two precisely because it is more exposed to energy price variations.

The turning point, i.e., the bottom followed by the trend reversal, occurred on March 30. Since that day’s close, the three indices have staged a significant recovery: the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 are gaining 11.86%, 17.8%, and 30.4% respectively.

But let’s fly to Europe, which is faring slightly worse: the Eurostoxx 50 (STOXX), the index that includes the top 50 European companies, has returned to positive territory for the first time since the start of the conflict: currently, it is up 2% compared to the close on March 2. However, the situation is not bright for everyone: in detail, London is down 2.9%, Paris 1.8%, while Frankfurt and Milan, on the contrary, are gaining 2.5% and 8.15% respectively.

In Asia, the situation has turned more favorable: the Nikkei, which represents the 225 most important companies in Japan, updated its all-time highs and, since March 2, is marking a +13.6%, while the KOSPI, the main South Korean index which had lost up to 18% with the outbreak of the war, reversed its trend with an impressive performance: +35.5% since the close on March 3. In China, the Hang Seng travels in negative territory: -1.6% since Day One.

Focus precious metals: gold and silver

In this chaos, one would expect good behavior from precious metals, universally conceived as safe havens in times of strong turbulence. That is not quite the case.

The price of gold, since the start of the bombings, has dropped by 14.1%, closely followed by silver (-12.5%). At the same time, despite not being a precious metal, the dollar returns to assuming a store-of-value role: in these ten weeks, the DXY—the dollar vs six major foreign currencies—is gaining 1.15%.

And the crypto market?

The crypto market seems to be linked, with due proportion, to the performance of the US tech sector: since Friday, February 27, Bitcoin is gaining 17.8%, after weeks of high volatility in which it targeted $70,000 four times, finally managing to break that ceiling and launch an attack on $80,000; Ethereum is underperforming but still growing by 9.8%; Ripple and Solana, on the other hand, post more modest performances, rising by 0.5% and 5% respectively. In general, the Total Market Cap has grown by approximately 308.5 billion dollars (+13.7%).

Some interesting data

According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, over the past thirty days, Public Companies have increased their Bitcoin stakes by 2.2%. In other words, listed companies—such as Strategy (MSTR)—have brought the total held in Bitcoin to 1.24 million BTC. The opposite is true for ETFs and exchanges: recent outflows have reduced the amount of BTC held by 0.2% (total: 1.62 million BTC).

In this regard, it is interesting to compare the stakes of the most representative entities in these two categories: Strategy (MSTR) for Public Companies and IBIT for ETFs. It is an extremely close head-to-head: the former holds 843,738 BTC, the latter 804,921 BTC.

What lies ahead?

It is the big question that crypto (and non-crypto) investors have been trying to answer for days. Clearly, no one has the answer, because the future cannot be predicted. In these moments, the best thing to do is to study the fundamentals and understand how protocols work.

Don’t know where to start? Don’t worry: our Academy is excellent for those who want to start, but also for those who are already experts and want to review.

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The 15% tariffs and geopolitical tensions frighten the markets: US futures in the red, crypto follows, the dollar loses ground, and gold rises

The Supreme Court’s ruling provokes a reaction from Trump, who introduces global tariffs at 15%. Meanwhile, the United States continues to mass its military fleet in the Mediterranean: is an attack on Iran getting closer? Investors, playing it safe, enter risk-off mode: fleeing from the most volatile assets in search of stability. Here is the situation.

Tariffs and Iran: the macro context

The spark that made the markets lose their nerve has a name: Donald Trump. Indeed, while the potential military escalation in Iran, and the ensuing uncertainty, have occupied the front pages of newspapers for weeks, the move that triggered the sell-off comes from the White House. What happened?

Trump did not appreciate the US Supreme Court’s ruling

The news arrived on Friday, February 20 like a bolt from the blue: according to the US Supreme Court, most of the tariffs imposed by Trump are illegal. The President of the United States, obviously, did not appreciate the ruling and declared that he already has a “backup plan” ready: more tariffs.

The occupant of the White House, on the immediately following weekend, introduced additional 10% global customs tariffs, only to raise the stakes by increasing the threshold to 15%. On his social media platform Truth, Trump literally wrote: “I, as President of the United States of America, will immediately raise the global tariffs by 10% applied to countries – many of which have ‘robbed’ the United States for decades, without suffering consequences (until I arrived!) – bringing them to the 15% level, a threshold fully permitted and confirmed in legal venues.”

Investors in risk-off mode

This combo caused a sharp shift in sentiment: we have entered a phase of strong risk-off, where capital exits very quickly from assets considered volatile or risky to seek safety in traditionally more stable havens.

To give an example, the Fear & Greed Index – the index that measures the fear of crypto investors – is currently sitting at 5, “Extreme Fear”. Conversely, and by the book during geopolitical crises, gold scored a +3% starting from Friday the 20th, returning above $5,000/ounce.

Market update: equities and crypto numbers

On Wall Street, the picture seems clear even at the time of writing, before the stock markets open: Dow Jones futures are down 0.3%, while those on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are losing 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

The price of oil is also feeling the impact: Brent futures are down 0.5% to $71.2 a barrel, while WTI – the US crude – stands at $66.11 a barrel, down 0.6%.

The crypto market follows suit: in the last few hours, the total market cap of the sector managed to shed over $100 billion in two days, only to recover half of it on Monday. Bitcoin recorded a heavy drop of about 5.5%, touching $64,300 but bouncing back and settling, for now, around $66,300.

The situation regarding liquidations is very interesting: about $468 million in long positions were liquidated between Sunday and Monday. But that’s not all: a single trader saw a whopping $61.5 million go up in smoke in a single trade.

Two more pieces of side info, between Ethereum and Nvidia

Let’s close with two news items that could cause further repercussions on the market, given their relevance.

First of all, the on-chain data tracked by Lookonchain indicate a movement that, generally, the community doesn’t like very much, to put it mildly: Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum, has gone back to selling ETH. Over the weekend of February 21-22, Buterin sold 1,869 ETH, cashing in more than $3 million. Ethereum, during those same hours, dropped by up to 6.4%, even pushing below $1,850.

Finally, on Wednesday, February 25, Nvidia will publish its highly anticipated quarterly earnings. The reason behind the importance of these numbers should be clear to the whole world: Nvidia is not just a tech company, it is the engine of the entire narrative linked to Artificial Intelligence and, by extension, of the US stock market over the last two years.

If the data were to disappoint and fail to beat the very high forecasts of analysts, the event could trigger a further wave of volatility, dragging down with it the tech sector in general, cryptos included.

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According to the US Supreme Court, the reciprocal tariffs imposed by Donald Trump are illegal: the ruling arrived on Friday, February 20

The reciprocal tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump on the occasion of “Liberation Day” on April 2, 2025, have been ruled illegal by the United States Supreme Court. The reason revolves around the methods by which they were applied. Let’s quickly see what happened.

US Supreme Court: “Congressional authorization is required”

On the Italian afternoon of February 20, the United States Supreme Court ruled on the legality of the reciprocal tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.

Chief Justice John Roberts drafted the majority opinion, which reads: “President Trump claims the extraordinary power to unilaterally impose tariffs of unlimited magnitude, duration, and scope. Given the breadth, history, and constitutional framework of such claimed powers, he must demonstrate clear Congressional authorization to exercise them“.

In short, SCOTUS – the Supreme Court of the United States – is telling us that the emergency powers Trump attempted to invoke, therefore, “are not sufficient“.

The tariffs, in fact, were introduced by bypassing the standard procedure that requires approval from the United States Congress: to do so, Donald Trump appealed to IEEPA, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

IEEPA, for context, is a US federal law that allows the President to declare the existence of “a threat to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States” that originates “in whole or substantial part outside the United States” – as stated in Article 50 of the United States Code – and act accordingly.

In this case, according to Trump, the trade deficit between the United States, heavy importers, and the rest of the world, which exports heavily to the US, constituted a threat to the national economy. And tariffs represented the tool to reduce this disparity.

The blocked tariffs are a stinging defeat for Trump

To understand the scale of the event, we must contextualize it politically: this ruling is, according to many analysts, the most significant legal defeat that the second Trump administration has suffered from a conservative-majority Supreme Court. There is, however, one unresolved issue: if the tariffs are unconstitutional, what happens to the money already collected?

The Supreme Court, in fact, while declaring the maneuver illegal, did not specify what should happen to the over 130 billion dollars in tariffs already collected by the federal government. An issue that will most likely translate into an avalanche of lawsuits from damaged importing companies.

What’s next?

According to some sources, President Trump reportedly stated that this decision “is a disgrace” and that “I have a backup plan“. The fundamental point, however, is one: Trump’s trade strategy, based on using tariffs as a negotiating lever against everyone, has just been neutralized by his own country’s judiciary.

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