Casino: The house always wins; investing your money instead of gambling is better.

casino

It is often said that “the house always wins.” The house does not always win but it wins more often than the players. What are the odds of winning at the casino, and why is it better to invest?

What is the expected value of playing casino games, and how is this concept measured in investments? Besides the inherent probabilistic laws that govern them, what commonalities exist between these two activities?

The house always often wins.

Interestingly, both casino games—colorful and vibrant—and what some might consider the duller financial assets can be statistically analysed and compared. Each has an expected value, but how is this calculated, and for which asset is it higher?

It’s often said that “the house always wins.” This popular saying underscores the undeniable advantage of gambling establishments (or the state) and effectively illustrates the underlying reality.

The fundamental statistical concept related to this is expected value. This concept is also prevalent in the investment world, where it is referred to as expected return. It is an essential tool for investors seeking to evaluate the potential outcomes of their decisions.

What is the expected value?

Before we delve into the formal definition, let’s consider a practical example to understand the concept better. Imagine we’re in a casino playing Craps, a game in which players bet on the outcome of a roll of six-sided dice. What is the probability of rolling a two?

The answer to this question is ⅙, as there are six faces on a die, and the probability of rolling each number is the same. To find the expected value, we sum the possible outcomes (the numbers on the die) and multiply each by the probability of that outcome occurring, which, as we mentioned, is ⅙.

Here is the calculation to be performed: 

(1*⅙) + (2*⅙) + (3*⅙) + (4*⅙) + (5*⅙) + (6*⅙) = 3.5

The next time you see a die rolled in a casino, you’ll understand that the expected value is 3.5. This means that if you roll a six-sided die many times, the average result will be 3.5. Now, let’s focus on a more formal definition.

“In probability theory, the expected value (also called mean or mathematical expectation) of a random variableX is a number denoted byE(X) formalises the heuristic idea of mean value of a random phenomenon.”

In summary, the expected value of an event is calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by the probability of its occurrence and then adding those products. In simpler terms, it can be understood as the weighted average of all possible outcomes. This definition will be helpful when discussing investments.

The house always wins: why it is not worth playing at the casino

Let’s teleport to a casino. Now that we understand expected value, everything shines a new light on the situation: this value is always negative for players but always positive for the house.

If this point went unnoticed, you may have missed an important detail: We have just scrutinised an industry that generated EUR 131 billion in revenue in Europe alone in 2023.

The explanation is straightforward. Gambling games are structured to give the casino an advantage, known as the house edge. This house edge ensures the casino’s business model remains viable; if the expected value were positive for players, running a casino would mean giving money away to customers over time.

However, not all games are the same. Some, like roulette, have only a slightly negative expected value, while others, such as SuperEnalotto, have such unfavorable odds that winning big is virtually impossible. Let’s look at the expected value of the most popular casino games.

A practical example: the expected value of Roulette

One of the most generous casino games for players is European roulette, which features a single zero. To illustrate this, let’s calculate the odds of a simple bet, such as on red or black, even or odd, or the ranges 1-18 or 19-36. In European roulette, there are 37 possible numbers: 18 red, 18 black, and 1 green zero.

For example, when betting on red:

  • Since there are 18 red numbers, the probability of winning is 18 out of 37 (approximately 48.65%).
  • The probability of losing is 19 out of 37 (approximately 51.35%) because, in addition to the 18 black numbers, there is also the zero, which causes red bets to lose.

The payout for a winning bet on red is 1:1. If you place a bet of 1€, you will receive a total of 2€ if you win, which includes a net profit of 1€. Conversely, if you lose, you forfeit the entire amount wagered.

Therefore, the total expected value will result from the difference between the expected value of the probability of victory (18/37) and defeat (19/37), resulting in a loss of 0.027€ per euro wagered. To simplify matters, we have not given the formula, but you can check it by calculating this difference after applying the same procedure as we did for the dice.

The Expected Value in Financial Investments

Now that you’re familiar with the concept of expected value in casino games, it’s time to discuss investments. Similar probabilistic principles estimate the future performance of financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, indices, and even cryptocurrencies.

First, it’s important to note that changing the reference system alters the approach to probability. We cannot analyse the financial world in a purely objective probabilistic manner, as it does not consist of perfectly symmetrical and well-constructed events (like a coin toss). In this context, probabilities are modeled based on historical data.

The expected value of investments, also known as the expected return, is the weighted average of the possible returns on an investment, factoring in the probability of each potential outcome. This definition closely resembles the one used in the context of casino games.

This article will explore the concept of expected value in finance using one of the longest-running stock indices: the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is one of the most significant stock indices globally, tracking the performance of the 500 most prominent and capitalised companies in the United States. With a historical data record spanning nearly a century, it is a reliable tool for estimating long-term stock returns. Historically, the S&P 500 has provided a positive average annual return.

The expected one is currently about +10%, considering historical data from 1928 to today, including reinvested dividends, over long periods. It would be interesting to do the same with Bitcoin, but unfortunately, fifteen years of history is minimal to evaluate a financial phenomenon from a statistical point of view. To date, the expected return would be 85%, analysing its performance from 2011 to the present.

Buy Bitcoin!

Why investing is not like gambling: conclusions

While both investing and gambling involve risking capital to make a profit, the key difference lies in the nature and sign of the expected value.

In gambling, the expected value is negative for the player. The system is effectively closed and operates as a negative-sum game: the house always keeps a portion of the bets as its margin. No matter how long a person plays or their betting strategies, the expected value remains unchanged. Systems like the Martingale can alter the short-term distribution of winnings but do not affect the predicted value in the long run.

In the long run, players tend to lose, on average, a percentage that reflects the house’s advantage. The saying “the house always wins” is not just a cliché; it is a mathematically proven reality due to the structure of casino games.

In contrast, financial investments, particularly in the stock market, typically offer investors a positive expected value. This is because the economy continuously generates new wealth: Companies grow, produce profits, and innovate, contributing to a long-term increase in value. Investors can participate in overall economic growth by investing in a diversified market index.

While there is always the risk of choosing the wrong investment or facing short-term downturns, these risks can be managed through diversification, setting long-term goals, and maintaining discipline. This level of strategic planning is impossible in gambling, where each bet is independent and inherently disadvantageous.

Volatility and expected value: the relationship

The final point to consider when comparing casino games with the world of investments is volatility, particularly in contrast to the certainty of incurring losses. In casino games, including scratch cards and Superenalotto, the long-term outcome is predictable—players can expect to lose a fixed percentage of their total wagers. As wagering increases, the volatility typically decreases relative to the volume played.

In investments, however, volatility does not diminish over more extended periods. It can lead to more significant uncertainty regarding outcomes in the medium term. Nevertheless, the likelihood of achieving a positive return increases over time because the expected value of investments is positive.

Holding a stock for just one day is akin to flipping a coin—it usually results in a 50% chance of a positive day and a 50% chance of a negative one. However, if you hold a stock for a year, there’s a good chance of achieving a positive return, although it’s not guaranteed. On the other hand, holding stocks for 10 or 20 years has historically always ensured a significant return.

In contrast, if you play roulette repeatedly for 10 or 20 years, you will likely have a negative net result that approaches the theoretical expected value unless you experience extraordinary and unrepeatable events.

In conclusion, wise investing is statistically successful over the long term, while gambling is guaranteed to lead to losses. Investment creates wealth within the economic system, whereas gambling merely redistributes value and often diminishes it, with a portion of the losses going to the banks. It’s important to note that investing involves risks; however, investors are rewarded with a premium for the risks they take. In contrast, gambling typically results in further disadvantages without any expected rewards.

Pectra: Ethereum’s next big update explained simply

Ethereum Pectra update: How does it work?

The Ethereum Pectra update is set to arrive on May 7. This article explains what it is, how it works, and the improvements it introduces.

The Ethereum Pectra update is set to be activated on the Ethereum blockchain. Currently undergoing testing, this update has clear objectives: to enhance the network’s speed, scalability, and user-friendliness.

With the Pectra update, users will no longer be required to pay gas fees solely in ETH. Additionally, it aims to improve the execution of smart contracts. In the long term, innovations such as Verkle trees and Peer DAS are expected to make the entire network more affordable, powerful, and capable of accommodating millions of additional users.

Pectra may not be as well-known as The Merge, but has the same revolutionary potential. It is a hard fork, representing a significant structural change that will create a clear division between the ‘before’ and ‘after’ of the Ethereum blockchain. The name Pectra comes from combining two distinct updates: Prague, which affects the execution layer and Electra, which impacts the consensus layer. For example, in 2024, with Dencun (from Deneb + Cancun), Pectra merges two components into one evolutionary upgrade.

How does Pectra work?

To truly understand what Pectra is and how it works, we must focus on practical aspects that are more effective for successfully mastering technology.

1. Account Abstraction

The Ethereum Pectra update’s first focus is account abstraction, a key concept that has gained significant attention in the on-chain world over the past two years. Account abstraction refers to a technology introduced through the technical proposal EIP-4337 on the Ethereum blockchain. It merges the functionalities of traditional accounts with smart contracts, resulting in the creation of smart wallets.

This innovation simplifies the user experience by eliminating the need for a seed phrase, automating transactions, and reducing gas fees. Account abstraction is the technology that will make decentralised applications (dapps) as seamless as traditional applications.

This change will also impact the current status quo, where users must hold at least a small amount of Ether (ETH) in their wallets to cover gas fees—transaction costs incurred whenever a transfer is made or when interacting with a dapp.

2. More efficient smart contracts

The second focal point of the Pectra update is the efficiency of Ethereum smart contracts, particularly concerning their execution. One planned improvement is the introduction of proposal EIP-7692, which consolidates several other technical proposals. 

To summarise, this proposal alters how smart contracts are compiled from a coding perspective and managed overall. For example, contracts will be divided into sections with clear headers, making code analysis, maintenance, and security easier. New commands will be introduced to jump between sections, manipulate the stack, and read data more efficiently. 

Additionally, code validation will occur only once during deployment rather than at each execution, which will help reduce costs and errors. These changes will occur at the bytecode level instead of in a high-level language like Solidity. In practice, the EVM Object Format (EOF) will change how Solidity code is compiled and executed within the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).

3. More flexible validators

Let’s focus on the consensus front, where the Ethereum Pectra update will significantly improve the Ethereum network. Currently, a validator must stake a minimum of 32 ETH ETH to receive rewards. However, any amount staked above 32 ETH does not generate additional rewards; it remains idle and unused. The Pectra update will modify this system by introducing flexible staking (EIP-7002) and increasing the maximum staking limit per validator from 32 to 2048 ETH (EIP-7251). These changes will enhance the system’s flexibility and efficiency, particularly for entities managing large amounts of ETH, such as companies or institutional traders.

Another essential feature of the update is the “consolidation of validators.” This function will enable platforms like Lido, which stake on behalf of multiple users, to manage fewer validator nodes for the same amount of ETH. The outcome will be reduced pressure on the network, increased efficiency, and a more sustainable use of resources.

4. Verkle Tree

This integration is quite technical, so we will explain it without delving into the details. Verkle Trees will enable network nodes to store less data than currently. The outcome? A lighter, faster, and more scalable network. 

This is a new and more efficient way of organising data compared to the current method. This change will ultimately make Ethereum more efficient and cost-effective to use in the long run.

5. Peer DAS for Layer 2

Ethereum relies on Layer 2 solutions, such as Arbitrum (ARB) and Optimism (OP), to enhance network scalability. With the recent Ethereum updates, Peer Data Availability Sampling has been introduced. This technology helps reduce costs and improve transaction speeds on these Layer 2 solutions by allowing rapid verification of transaction data without downloading it. It is a practical measure to keep fees low, even during periods of high on-chain activity.

A double update in two stages

Pectra will be released in two phases. The first phase, which will feature the more visible new enhancements, such as account abstraction and updates for validators, is scheduled to be released in less than a month, with the official date set for May 7, 2025. The second phase will focus on more technical improvements, including the EVM Object Format (EOF) and Peer DAS, which are intended to enhance Layer 2 solutions and smart contracts., This phase is expected to arrive in 2026. What is the impact on ETH price? Hard to say…

Ethereum is currently facing some challenges. After reaching multiple all-time highs, it has lost over 60% of its value and appears stuck in a continuous downward trend. For this reason, we are not confident that the Pectra update will significantly impact its price.

However, this update could pave the way for broader adoption and may positively affect Ethereum’s fundamentals, which is the most crucial aspect. With features such as the ability to pay gas fees using any token, more efficient writing and deployment of smart contracts, and flexible staking management, it’s clear that these enhancements make Ethereum more attractive to both developers and end users.In summary, Pectra is not just another upgrade; it represents a critical step toward creating a more scalable, affordable and accessible Ethereum network. This update is a quiet but significant stride toward overcoming the blockchain trilemma of scalability, security, and decentralisation, ultimately preparing the network for mass adoption.

Why is the bull market struggling?

Will quantitative easing kick-start the explosive bull market?

According to the most optimistic investors, the recent bearish movement will kick off the altcoin season. According to the most pessimistic the bull market is over. What is the truth? Does it all come down to quantitative easing?

The season of quantitative easing still appears distant, while the prices of significant assets—ranging from cryptocurrencies to equities—have dropped significantly in recent days. What is lacking in this bull market, which seems quite different from previous ones? While nothing has been lost, the global landscape regarding monetary policies, particularly those of the United States, appears far from a turning point.

In this article, we will explore quantitative easing and discuss why igniting the next alt season might be necessary.

Quantitative easing: what is it?

Understanding quantitative easing is crucial for navigating the current market landscape. Simply put, it is “the central banks‘ secret weapon” for stimulating the economy. This contrasts with quantitative tightening, which involves raising interest rates and decreasing the money supply.

Quantitative easing involves significantly lowering interest rates, making it easier for individuals and businesses to borrow money. It also includes the purchase of government bonds and other financial assets. It acts like an “all you can eat” buffet for central banks. This influx of cheap liquidity, which comes from the money that investors choose not to invest in bonds due to their very low yields, then flows into assets that are considered riskier, particularly stocks and cryptocurrencies.

For the past fifteen years, quantitative easing has been the solution for every crisis, from the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It has also fueled recent bull markets. However, the current situation is different. Despite declining inflation between 2021 and 2023, interest rates remain above the 2% target, at 3% in January 2025. This limits the potential for aggressive monetary policy easing. Additionally, this comes on the heels of Trump’s recent announcements about new tariffs, which have been confirmed for Canada and Mexico. According to the Federal Reserve, cutting rates too quickly could lead to excessive speculation in the financial markets and an overheated economy.

The growth of Bitcoin’s market capitalisation

Despite the absence of quantitative easing monetary policies, the market has experienced explosive growth in the final months 2024. Since November 2022, Bitcoin’s price has surged by 448%, and its market capitalisation has risen from USD 300 billion to USD 1,760 billion, peaking at USD 2,150 billion.

This impressive growth is partly due to the approval of spot ETFs. These financial instruments have attracted approximately $38 billion to Bitcoin and currently hold $101 billion worth of BTC, representing 5.79% of the circulating supply. Bitcoin had never before seen a market capitalisation increase of $1.7 trillion at its peak in January 2025. A look at past cycles reveals the following performance:

  • 2015-2017: +11,082% over 1,068 days, with a $326 billion increase in market capitalisation.
  • 2018-2021: +2,021% over 1,060 days, with a $1.21 trillion increase in market capitalisation.

Overall, this market cycle appears strongly positive when analysing Bitcoin’s performance and the milestones achieved over the past three years.

For example, Bitcoin (BTC) has become a central topic in global financial discussions, significantly influencing debates in the United States, including during the presidential elections. Notably, Senator Cynthia Lummis and former President Donald Trump have both advocated for creating a strategic reserve of BTC for the U.S. Treasury.

Some considerations on the market cycle we are currently experiencing

Let’s set aside quantitative easing, which we’ve already noted is a missing element in this market cycle, and instead focus on how this cycle differs from previous ones. The key question for many crypto enthusiasts is: Will there be an altseason, and will it follow the recent market crash?

It is difficult to determine ‘where we are in the cycle’.

On one hand, we can confidently say that we have not yet experienced a true altcoin season. On the contrary, we have gone through one or more meme coin seasons, the most recent coinciding with the launch of TRUMP, a meme coin introduced directly by the former U.S. president in January.

On the other hand, the price of Bitcoin has increased significantly, rising by 60% from the previous cycle’s all-time high. Additionally, it has been over 12 months since Bitcoin first broke its all-time high in January 2024, making this cycle even more unusual.

Despite this, some industry experts believe the outcome is still uncertain. The new retail investors who have entered the market—partly due to the launch of TRUMP—could return if an altcoin season finally takes place.

Has the meme coin casino replaced the altseasons?

This point is closely related to the previous one. The launch of numerous new meme coins, along with the strong performance of associated platforms such as pump.fun, acts as a funnel that attracts and drains liquidity from the crypto market.

As a result, many investors have shifted their focus to the meme coin sector, while others are giving up on altcoins. Additionally, the high expectations surrounding Donald Trump’s election have somewhat diminished. The president has notent has commented in a while on crypto, particularly since the launch of his meme coin.

An axiom that has always applied in previous crypto market cycles—likely triggered by quantitative tightening and liquidity injections—states that the price of Bitcoin rises first, then Ethereum’s price follows. Finally, liquidity flows into smaller altcoins. However, today, the situation seems to have changed. Only time will tell if this marks a paradigm shift or a delay.

Major market players are continuing to accumulate.

Let’s conclude this article with some positive news. Despite the lack of quantitative easing, which has historically catalyzed bull markets, the current cycle demonstrates remarkable resilience. Bitcoin, fueled by institutional ETFs and unprecedented political recognition, has defied historical patterns by growing in a more restrictive monetary environment. However, the absence of a traditional ‘alt season’ and the dominance of meme coins prompt questions about the future of cryptocurrency: Are we witnessing a paradigm shift or merely a temporary pause?

The answer may be found in patience. Institutional investors continue to accumulate assets, indicating that long-term confidence remains strong. While the current macroeconomic climate—characterised by high interest rates and geopolitical tensions—may dampen enthusiasm, it also creates opportunities for strategic accumulation, potentially setting the stage for a future surge. The actual ‘trigger’ for market movement may not be the return of quantitative easing but rather the market’s adaptation to new rules, where innovation, regulation, and mass adoption craft a different narrative. As the history of past cycles teaches us, one certainty remains: markets always surprise us, often just when expectations are low.

Out Tesla, in Bitcoin: Standard Chartered revolutionises index Mag 7

Standard Chartered replaces Tesla shares with Bitcoin

Standard Chartered has replaced Tesla with Bitcoin in its Mag 7B index, citing higher yield and lower volatility. Discover how cryptocurrency has entered the realm of elite assets.

The banking giant Standard Chartered has released a new report proposing a variation of the well-known “Magnificent Seven,” which includes seven major tech companies that dominate the global stock market. In this latest version, called “Mag 7B,” Tesla shares have been replaced by Bitcoin.

This approach evaluates whether cryptocurrency can be a viable alternative—if not a superior oneto one of the most iconic companies in the technology sector. Early results indicate that Bitcoin has provided higher returns with less volatility. Tesla is struggling due to the significant downturn it experienced following Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House.

Tesla shares and Bitcoin: what is the Mag 7B index and the information ratio

Substituting Bitcoin for Tesla shares in the Mag 7 index, which replicates the behavior of top global technology assets, creates what we can call the Mag 7B. This idea is not original; it comes from Standard Chartered, one of the leading banks in the UK. Interestingly, Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s Head of Digital Assets Research, stated that this new composition could generate returns approximately 5% higher from 2017 to the present while reducing average annual volatility by nearly 2%.

This claim is particularly evident when analysing the information ratio, which measures an asset’s extra return compared to a market benchmark about the volatility of its differential returns against a reference index. The information ratio helps evaluate an asset’s performance by comparing it to its associated risks.

Replacing Tesla shares with Bitcoin within the Mag 7 index yields a higher information ratio, suggesting better performance: 1.13 compared to 1.04. Kendrick’s decision to include Bitcoin instead of Tesla shares is based on the observation that Bitcoin behaves more like a tech stock than a traditional store of value. Consequently, it is more correlated to the Nasdaq 100—an index tracking the performance of the 100 most capitalised American tech companies—than gold.

Additionally, the data indicate that since January 2025, following Donald Trump’s assumption of the presidency, Bitcoin’s price performance has shown similarities to Nvidia’s, while Tesla’s seems to be more closely aligned with Ethereum’s in terms of volatility.

Will Bitcoin in institutional wallets become the norm?

The decision to include Bitcoin in the Mag 7B index at the expense of Tesla shares is more than just an academic exercise; it signifies a significant shift in the investment landscape. Various funds, including sovereign wealth funds, are increasingly exploring direct exposure to Bitcoin. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has emphasised this trend over the past two years. With the recent launch of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF in Europe, the prospect of institutional investors allocating capital to Bitcoin has become even more tangible. Furthermore, Europe is home to many affluent savers considering investing in a new but undeniably solid asset.

In summary, Kendrick’s analysis extends beyond potential returns. The lower volatility that could be achieved by substituting Tesla shares with Bitcoin indicates that this cryptocurrency may help rebalance the overall risk of a technology-focused portfolio. The conclusion is clear: Bitcoin is no longer an outsider; it can now be regarded as a legitimate asset in innovation-oriented portfolios.

The new stablecoins of Fidelity and Donald Trump

The stablecoins of Fidelity and the Trump family

Fidelity Investments and World Liberty Financial, the decentralised finance project (DeFi) backed by the Trump family, announced the launch of two new stablecoins.

Two significant pieces of news regarding stablecoins have recently garnered attention in the crypto market. The first involves Fidelity Investments, one of America’s leading investment firms and an issuer of Bitcoin spot ETFs.

The second stablecoin is USD1, promoted by World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a decentralised finance (DeFi) project backed by former US President Donald Trump. Read on to learn more about these two new stablecoins in the crypto market!

Fidelity Investments prepares to launch a stablecoin

Fidelity Investments, a leading global asset manager, is set to launch its stablecoin, which is expected to be released by the end of May 2025. The Boston-based investment firm aims to create its version of digital cash, following its exploration of the cryptocurrency sector with the introduction of spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2024.

The upcoming stablecoin is part of Fidelity’s recent proposal to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to introduce a tokenised version of its Treasury Digital Fund. This fund comprises cash and U.S. treasuries (government bonds) and is only available to institutional investors and hedge funds.

This initiative may have been influenced by Donald Trump’s election, which marked a shift in the previous administration’s stance toward cryptocurrency. Since the early stages of his election campaign, Trump has promoted pro-cryptocurrency policies and supported the growth of stablecoins.

World Liberty Financial introduced USD1

To illustrate our earlier point about Donald Trump’s support for stablecoins, we present recent news about World Liberty Financial. The Trump family’s DeFi project has launched USD1, a stablecoin.

This stablecoin, similar to the fund Fidelity plans to introduce to blockchain through tokenisation, will be fully backed by U.S. Treasury bonds, cash, or equivalent assets. Not much is known about USD1 except for the blockchains on which it will initially be available: Ethereum and the Binance Smart Chain, which is compatible with EVM.

In summary, recent developments in the cryptocurrency world reveal that Fidelity Investments has decided to launch its stablecoin in preparation for the public release of its Treasury Digital Fund. This product falls into the Real World Asset (RWA) category and has great potential to drive increased crypto adoption.

President Donald Trump has also shown a growing interest in cryptocurrencies and has actively promoted initiatives to position the United States as a leader in this sector. The establishment of World Liberty Financial and the launch of USD1 are concrete examples of this commitment.

Investing is simple but not easy: 5 paradoxes of personal finance and the crypto world

personal finance

Laziness is a virtue in the investment world! Discover five other paradoxical and counterintuitive (but true) assumptions from the world of personal finance.

What are the central paradoxes of personal finance? Our blog primarily focuses on cryptocurrencies but occasionally explores other areas of the vast investment landscape.

Recently, we came across an intriguing article by Dedalo Invest. The author, Andrea Gonzali, outlines personal finance’s 10 contradictions (or paradoxes). We decided to revisit this article because many of its points resonate strongly with the crypto world.

The investment world can often be counterintuitive. 

While the primary goal of those exploring the markets is logical—maximising returns and minimising losses—many investor actions can seem irrational, especially without the benefit of hindsight. In summary, the objective is clear, intuitive, and rational, but its methods can be complex.

There isn’t a single reason for this complexity. Historically, humans have developed intuition for two key purposes: to ensure the survival of our species and to perpetuate it through procreation. This focus does not include increasing financial capital. To quote the original article’s author, “The fundamentals are intuitive: save regularly, invest wisely, diversify your portfolio, and maintain it over the long term. It is the management of money that is complex.

Laziness is a virtue.

Let us start with perhaps the most paradoxical statement: laziness often maximises performance, while hyperactivity tends to hinder it. Of course, this observation is not meant to generalise; exceptions certainly exist, such as the highly active meme coin trader who is our friend’s cousin. However, when analysing broader investment and personal finance trends, many of society’s beliefs about the value of hard work and commitment are challenged.

It is essential to clarify that in this context, laziness refers specifically to the operational side of investing, such as the frequency of buying and selling or rebalancing, rather than the time spent studying concepts or theories. This idea also applies to the world of cryptocurrency. The more trades one makes in a particular timeframe, the greater the risk of making mistakes that can lead to significant losses, especially when dealing with certain types of cryptocurrencies.

In traditional finance, so-called “lazy portfolios”—portfolios that simply diversify among a few asset classes using financial instruments that require minimal intervention—have historically outperformed many more complex, actively managed strategies. The same can be said for portfolios predominantly composed of Bitcoin and a few altcoins, even over shorter investment horizons.

Several reasons account for this phenomenon. First and foremost, every trade made on a brokerage platform or a crypto exchange incurs costs and increases the likelihood of making errors. Due to the unpredictable nature of the markets, even professional investors do not try to time the market effectively—that is, they do not attempt to sell assets at their peak value or buy them at their lowest point. Finally, it’s important to note that any capital gains realised from trading are subject to taxation.

You have to follow your intuition

Intuition is crucial for our safety, alerting us to danger before it becomes apparent. However, relying on intuition can be risky when it comes to investments. While humans have only recently begun investing their money, our intuition and the cognitive biases linked to it have developed over hundreds of thousands of years. In simpler terms, our intuition evolved to protect us from threats like wild animals or poisonous plants, not to navigate the complexities of the post-Trump trade market crash.

These cognitive biases are mental shortcuts that shape our beliefs and influence quick decision-making, significantly affecting our investment choices:

1. Anchoring: We assign excessive and irrational value to specific price points. A notable example is the $100,000 threshold for Bitcoin, where many investors made mistakes during the 2021 bull market because they believed BTC would reach this level.

2. Overconfidence Bias occurs when we overestimate our knowledge, decision-making abilities, or predictions’ accuracy.

3. Confirmation Bias: This bias leads us to selectively seek information supporting our existing opinions while ignoring data that contradicts them.

For this reason, rigid investment approaches characterised by clear, unbreakable rules—such as a recurring and buy-and-hold strategy—tend to yield better results than those based on an investor’s instincts or subjective perceptions.

Sales do not attract buyers.

In finance, especially in cryptocurrency, a price decline often drives buyers away, contrary to what typically occurs in other markets. For instance, if we are interested in a pair of shoes and their price drops by 50%, we will likely welcome this reduction and make a purchase. This creates a paradox where, in the markets, the opposite behavior is observed. The well-known meme illustrating a long line of buyers when Bitcoin’s price is $100,000 and an empty line when it falls to $6,000 effectively captures this reality.

The herd effect can explain the concept: when everyone is selling, our instinct prompts us to follow suit, even though we know rationally that it might be the best time to buy. Discounts can be intimidating in the markets because falling prices are typically linked to negative news or behaviors, altering the perception of investors anticipating further declines.

Investing near the highs is the norm, not the exception.

Let’s shift our focus from the crypto sector to traditional financial markets, particularly the stock market. This shift isn’t because the concepts we’re discussing are exclusive to traditional markets but because crypto assets are relatively young compared to stock indices. As a result, we have insufficient historical data to support our thesis fully.

Those entering the investment world for the first time often fear buying at market peaks or feel they are entering too late. However, this concern is unfounded mainly when we examine the history of the S&P 500, the leading stock index that tracks the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States and, in many ways, reflects general market trends. 

The S&P 500’s chart, which begins in 1957, shows that it spends a significant amount of time near its all-time highs. Between 1957 and March 2025, the index recorded 1,242 new highs. Typically, these all-time highs are separated by very short periods, although there have been a few notable exceptions, such as the seven-year gaps between 2000 and 2007 and between 1973 and 1980. 

In summary, reaching new all-time highs in traditional finance is not an extraordinary event but the norm.

The notion that investing during a bearish market is easier is often misleading. When markets collapse, fear and uncertainty prevail, making investing paradoxically more challenging, even when prices are significantly lower.

What about the world of cryptocurrency? Currently, Bitcoin cannot be compared to the S&P 500 due to the 50-year history that separates them. This difference contributes to Bitcoin’s value being more cyclical and subject to volatility. However, Bitcoin has recently reduced the time between reaching all-time highs, likely due to increased interest from institutional investors. Over time, although we cannot be sure, Bitcoin’s price movements will probably start to resemble those of traditional assets, with gold being a prime example, as both share the characteristic of scarcity.

Investing near the highs is the norm, not the exception

We arrive at the fifth and final point, aptly summarised by Daedalus Invest, in the following paradox:

  • It is essential to start investing as early as possible to benefit from compound interest
  • However, you cannot act blindly; you must fully understand what you are doing and educate yourself before you begin investing.

The first statement is straightforward if you know how compound interest works. It refers to the percentage return you earn on an amount that includes previously accumulated interest—essentially, it’s interest on interest. Nevertheless, jumping in without a solid foundation of knowledge can lead to mistakes that may be costly and disheartening, prompting individuals to step away from investing altogether.

So, how can you overcome this challenge? Start by exploring the wealth of resources available on our Academy and Blog!

Crowdfunding in crypto: all the advantages and how to do it

Crowdfunding in crypto

How does crowdfunding operate in the cryptocurrency sector? It is an innovative approach to raising capital.

Cryptocurrency crowdfunding is a new, direct, immediate, simple and participative way to raise capital. This approach has gained popularity because it allows companies and individuals to quickly access funding or invest in rapidly growing startups.

Businesses seeking financial support and individuals wanting to fund their projects can use cryptocurrency crowdfunding platforms. These platforms enable them to reach a broad base of potential investors without depending on traditional banking channels or venture capital. In this article, we will explore crypto crowdfunding and how it works.

What it is and how it works

Crypto crowdfunding is a fundraising method that utilises cryptocurrencies instead of traditional fiat currency as the primary source of capital. Unlike conventional fundraising, this process often occurs without intermediaries or third parties, enabling investors to access opportunities directly.

This approach significantly speeds up the fundraising process and improves security and transparency. Today, startups can leverage blockchain technology and smart contracts to raise capital quickly and efficiently, bypassing the cumbersome procedures that were common before the digital age.

The advantages of crowdfunding in crypto

Cryptocurrency crowdfunding offers several advantages over traditional funding methods. First, it is generally more efficient, faster, and flexible, providing a reliable infrastructure. This efficiency is crucial for both companies seeking funding and investors.

Companies benefit from the security provided by smart contracts, which leverage the transparency of blockchain technology to manage fundraising effectively. The blockchain permanently records all transactions and details related to fundraising, ensuring complete transparency. This allows investors to monitor how their funds are used in real-time.

Additionally, cryptocurrency crowdfunding provides global access to investors, eliminating the geographical barriers often found in traditional funding. Like conventional crowdfunding, investors are encouraged and supported in evaluating the organisations or projects they wish to fund, but they have access to more independent information for their research.

The main types

There are various types of crowdfunding in the crypto space, with the most well-known—though often misused—being Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). This fundraising method can be safe and beneficial; a prime example is the ICO of Ethereum, which allowed the project’s first supporters, led by Vitalik Buterin, to invest early on. However, when successful ideas emerge, they tend to be exploited by many, including those with questionable intentions who are simply looking to profit.

Only two parties typically participate in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs): the company and the investors. Initially, the start-up launching the fundraising event presents its project to potential investors through a whitepaper summarising the business plan. Additionally, the presence of a token is crucial, and it must have a specific function. For example, the token may grant investors access to certain services related to the product or provide them with a share of the company’s future dividends.

Following the rise and decline of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), new forms of crowdfunding in the cryptocurrency space emerged, including Initial Exchange Offerings (IEOs). IEOs signify a notable advancement in crypto crowdfunding, as cryptocurrency exchange platforms directly handle them. Unlike independent ICOs, IEOs involve an exchange that oversees the crowdfunding process.

The main advantages of Initial Exchange Offerings (IEOs) include:

1. Increased Security: IEOs are conducted on regulated exchange platforms, providing investors greater trust and security than Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), often linked to fraud and scams.

2. Access to Markets: IEOs provide startups with a direct channel to investors through the exchange platform, enabling them to access a large user base without establishing their investor network.

3. Simplified Procedures: IEOs streamline the participation process, allowing investors to use funds directly from their accounts on the exchange platform. This eliminates creating a separate digital wallet or navigating complex procedures.

4. Technical Support: Exchange platforms hosting IEOs typically offer technical support and assistance to investors and startups, reducing the risk of errors when purchasing cryptocurrencies.

5. Regulation: Since IEOs are hosted on regulated platforms, rules and procedures are established to prevent illegal activities and fraudulent behaviour and ensure compliance with national and international laws.

Initial Exchange Offerings (IEOs) provide a secure and convenient way for start-ups to raise funds through cryptocurrencies and for investors to participate in these projects. Thanks to blockchain technology, IEOs enable quick and transparent transactions.

To learn more about how our B2B services can support your company’s growth through this type of fundraising and other blockchain and cryptocurrency-related services, please visit our B2B services page or contact us at [email protected].

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ETFs on Solana. When (and if) they are approved.

etf solana

The Solana ETFs have not yet been approved. Some expected them to arrive on 25 January, as the first SEC deadline loomed for the proposed approvals of the VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, and Bitwise ETFs.

What do the experts foresee concerning recent events related to the new US president? What impact could a future approval have on Solana’s price? Find out in this article.

Buy Solana

What is missing for ETFs on Solana?

According to some crypto analysts, the SEC could have approved the Solana ETFs on January 25, as the first deadlines for the proposals from VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, and Bitwise were approaching. However, similar to the situation with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the Solana ETFs were not approved by the initial deadline. As a result, we will have to wait at least until March 11, the date for the second deadline.

Optimists point out that the SEC’s chairman is no longer Gary Gensler, who has been a long-time critic of the industry. This reflects much of the prevailing sentiment within the US Democratic political landscape. Mark Uyeda, a pro-crypto Republican, has taken office. The political landscape includes Republicans and Donald Trump, who recently launched a meme coin related to Solana’s blockchain.

In summary, the future of Solana ETFs remains uncertain. According to Polymarket, the leading prediction market in the crypto world, there is a high probability (89%) that approval will occur by the end of 2025, although the timeline may still be unpredictable. With Donald Trump back in government, the volatility in the market seems to have increased, making it clear that anything could happen at any time.

A good time for Solana

Solana is performing well, regardless of whether its ETFs are approved in March or face further delays. A significant factor in this success is that the US president selected it as the infrastructure for launching his official meme coin.

Let’s focus on some concrete figures. The total value locked (TVL) on the network has reached a new all-time high of $12 billion, surpassing the previous record of $10 billion set in 2022. Trading volumes are also at their highest: according to DefiLlama, Solana’s blockchain processed over $200 billion in transactions in January alone.

Lastly, it’s important not to overlook the impressive revenues, which, as expected given the results mentioned, reached almost USD 100 million in January alone.

The recent price movements of Solana (SOL)

What has been described so far is also reflected in the price trend of Solana, one of the few altcoins that has risen in recent days. Following a low of $185 on January 13, the cryptocurrency experienced a strong rebound, recording four consecutive days of upward movement, ultimately reaching $220 on January 18.

Check out Solana’s graph!

However, something unexpected happened shortly after: Donald Trump launched his official meme coin. At that moment, many cryptocurrency enthusiasts began to realize that, at least at this stage of the market, Solana is outperforming all other Layer 1 protocols in the race towards mass adoption. From the $220 level reached on January 18, SOL surged to a new all-time high of $295 in less than 48 hours.

The subsequent physiological retracement settled around the $230 mark and appears to have already run its course. SOL is now heading back towards $270. So, where could it go in this bull market?

The calendar of quarterly results of listed companies

NVIDIA's quarterly data

Check out NVIDIA’s quarterly data calendar and the most important companies in the stock market.

The quarterly data calendar for NVIDIA and other major stock market companies is vital for monitoring market trends. NVIDIA and all publicly listed companies must release quarterly reports every three months. These reports provide essential information about the company’s financial performance for the previous quarter, including revenues, profits, expenses, future forecasts, and more.

This article explains why these reports are essential, how they influence investors’ decisions, and provides an updated timetable for their release.

Quarterly reports: why should companies like NVIDIA publish them?

Before exploring the quarterly earnings calendar of NVIDIA and other major companies in the stock market, it is important to understand some key aspects of these reports. First, it’s essential to note that the publication of these documents is a regulatory requirement designed to ensure a certain level of transparency in the markets.

Quarterly reports are pivotal in enabling investors to evaluate a company’s performance. They help them determine whether the company is growing and generating profits and provide the necessary information to decide whether to buy or sell its shares.

These reports reflect a company’s financial health and serve as a tool for comparing it with competitors. For instance, NVIDIA’s results can be compared to those of other companies in the technology sector. Are NVIDIA’s profits, derived from its GPU production, sufficient to justify its market capitalisation? Are there emerging competitors that can produce at lower costs? The analysis of quarterly reports can partly provide answers to these questions.

How they influence the markets

Like many publicly traded companies, NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings significantly impact the markets. However, the effects are not always obvious and require experience and a thorough understanding to interpret correctly. The reality is more complex and not always linear, adding an element of intrigue to the market dynamics.

There is no precise formula for predicting how the market will react to quarterly earnings reports. Multiple factors influence reactions, with investor expectations playing a crucial role. The stock typically rises if a company’s results align with analysts’ forecasts or exceed them. Conversely, if results are positive but fall short of expectations, the stock may decline.

Another essential factor to consider is the macroeconomic environment. During market uncertainty or weakness periods, even a positive quarterly result may not receive the recognition it deserves. For instance, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 29, favourable quarterly results might fail to have a positive impact. Conversely, in a bullish environment, the market may view even less impressive results positively.

Additionally, several other aspects are crucial in how the market reacts to quarterly results. The size of the company, its industry, its market share, and its overall reputation are all factors that can significantly influence market perception and reactions to its quarterly performance.

NVIDIA quarterlies and more: the complete calendar

2025 will be a crucial year for Big Tech and the market in general. Here is the updated calendar with the quarterly reports of the primary listed companies.

Wednesday, 15 January 2025

  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. ($761 billion)
  • Wells Fargo & Co. ($274 billion)
  • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ($206 billion)
  • BlackRock, Inc. ($152 billion)
  • Citigroup Inc. ($153 billion)

Thursday, 16 January 2025

  • Bank of America Corp. ($358.4 billion)
  • Morgan Stanley ($220.15 billion)

Tuesday 21 January 2025

  • Netflix, Inc. ($415.44 billion)

Monday 28 January 2025

  • LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE ($377.21 billion)
  • T-Mobile US, Inc. ($274.5 billion)
  • Alibaba Group Holding Limited (USD 174 billion)

Wednesday, 29 January 2025

  • Meta Platforms, Inc. ($659.88 billion)
  • Microsoft Corporation ($3.23 trillion)
  • Tesla, Inc. ($397.15 billion)

Thursday 30 January 2025

  • Apple Inc. ($3.46 trillion)
  • Visa Inc. ($647.53 billion)
  • Mastercard Incorporated (USD 489.65 billion)

Tuesday 4 February 2025

  • Alphabet Incorporated, Google’s holding company ($1.91 trillion)

Thursday, 6 February 2025

  • Amazon.com, Inc. ($2.48 trillion)

Wednesday, 26 February 2025

  • NVIDIA Corporation ($2.9 trillion)

Over the past few days, it has become clear that 2025 will be a critical year for assessing artificial intelligence’s true impact. This topic is central to leading companies worldwide, including Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Alphabet. Stay tuned to our blog for the latest updates.

How to stake. All the ways to get rewards from your crypto

Learn how to stake cryptocurrencies, what staking is for, which service to use and which tokens can be locked up in staking.

Staking is a common crypto mechanism that permits the functioning of Proof-of-Stake blockchains. In fact, to achieve network consensus – which is necessary to validate transactions – these particular blockchains do not use an external source such as electricity or computational power; instead, they use internal resources, i.e., user guarantees. In other words, staking is the basis of a blockchain’s validation mechanism. However, staking can also refer to the process of locking up cryptos to obtain rewards without necessarily becoming a network’s validator. This article will look at how to stake and all the options available to obtain rewards from cryptos.

What is staking for? 

People who choose to stake might have different goals. Some people stake to become a validator, while others lock up their cryptos only to obtain a reward, delegating to other users the task of transaction validating. Let’s take a look at the different types of staking: 

1. Staking cryptos to become a blockchain validator

The validating nodes of a blockchain are responsible for finalising the network transactions. Contrary to what happens in Proof-of-Work chains, no special technical equipment is needed to validate transactions in Proof-of-Stake chains – it is sufficient to simply stake your crypto. In most cases, people or entities already have some experience in the blockchain field who become validators. You have to open a node after staking a certain amount of cryptocurrencies. This type of staking requires downloading a wallet that enables staking in the chain you want to become a node of, and staying online 24/7. Some blockchains also stipulate a minimum share of crypto to be staked, for example on Tezos it is 8,000 XTZ, on Ethereum 2.0 it will be 32 ETH

2. Delegating your stake

If you do not want to manage a validator node, you can delegate your stake to an existing node. Delegation is a convenient alternative if you wish to participate in the consensus mechanism of a blockchain with a lower investment of time and money. When you delegate a node, the amount of cryptocurrency you have staked joins the node’s stake. This way, the validating node will also use your cryptocurrencies to contribute to the functioning of the network. The rewards obtained for the validation work are distributed proportionally between the node and those delegated. You can delegate a node through platforms (decentralised or otherwise) that offer this service. 

3. Staking cryptos to take part in a blockchain’s governance 

In some cases, staking is used to let users participate in blockchain governance. Whoever stakes a certain amount of crypto earns the right to vote on updates, improvements and the direction of the blockchain’s roadmap. This way, staking increases the decentralisation of a project’s decisions.

4. Locking up cryptos to get rewards

Cryptocurrency staking can also mean simply locking up your cryptocurrencies for a period of time to obtain rewards, calculated annually and expressed in APY. These rewards are the equivalent of what traditional finance calls an annual percentage return. Locked cryptocurrencies cannot be traded or sold until the end of the staking period selected. How can I take part in this type of staking? This option is particularly suitable for people who are not particularly familiar with the crypto sector because it does not require any technical expertise, all you need to do is find out about the third-party service you choose. Now let’s see where you can stake! 

Where can you stake?

You can choose different third-party services for staking cryptocurrencies – there are decentralised platforms, dapp, and exchanges (centralised and not), as well as offline options such as external hardware.  

1. Staking via hardware 

Offline staking is called cold staking. In this type of staking, cryptocurrencies are locked up and stored in cold wallets, i.e. wallets that are not connected to the internet. Cold wallets can be hardware, paper wallets or offline applications. Cold staking is often used when locking up large amounts of crypto and to avoid the potential risk of cyber attacks. This type of staking is highly secure, but the staking is managed autonomously, without third parties mediating. For this reason, you need to be familiar with the mechanisms. Even if they are offline, cryptocurrencies in cold wallets are always connected to the blockchain and rewards are earned as in online staking. 

2. Staking via a CEX or DEX

One of the most commonly used services for staking online is through exchanges. Whether centralised or decentralised, exchanges often provide step-by-step guides on how to use staking tools. Each exchange has its features, differing in the type of solution, supported cryptocurrencies, and offered APY. You can choose the one that best suits your needs.

On Young Platform, you can access a simple and intuitive staking solution directly. Currently, you can lock various cryptocurrencies that support staking and earn rewards calculated based on APY, proportional to the amount you decide to stake.

Young Platform offers two staking methods:

  • Liquid Staking allows for greater flexibility with staked crypto without long-term locking.
  • Proof of Stake enables active participation in network security while earning higher rewards than other solutions.

For more information: Staking introduction: an innovative way to put your crypto to work

3. Staking Pools: decentralised protocols and dapps

Many decentralised protocols and dapps offer different staking opportunities. For example, you can lock cryptocurrencies up in Staking Pools, i.e. smart contracts or features that aggregate stakes of other users. Staking pools are usually used by blockchain nodes to increase the size of their stakes and, thus, the probability of being chosen as validators. Furthermore, DeFi protocols and platforms also offer options for Derivative Staking and Liquid Staking, in which rewards are earned through derivative products.  

Staking NFTs

Staking doesn’t end at coins or tokens – the latest frontier of decentralised finance also includes NFT staking. This works similarly to traditional staking – you lock up your non-fungible tokens on unique platforms to obtain rewards in crypto. Not all NFTs are suitable for this practice. Moonbirds, by the startup Proof, is a collection that has implemented a staking feature. Staking NFTs allows people to maximise their digital artwork and sometimes participate in the governance of their projects.