Will the United States’ gold reserves be converted to Bitcoin?

Bitcoin News: Will the USA sell gold to buy BTC?

The latest Bitcoin news reveals that Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed converting part of the USA’s gold reserves into BTC.

In recent days, the cryptocurrency landscape has been shaken by not only a dramatic price surge but also by significant news concerning Bitcoin, primarily from the United States. Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a bill proposing the conversion of a portion of the U.S. gold reserves into Bitcoin.

If approved, this initiative could mark a historic shift in the economic and financial trajectory of the United States and the world.

A New Era for State Reserves

Senator Lummis’ proposal aims to create a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” for the United States by converting a fraction of the country’s vast gold reserves into BTC. Currently, the United States holds the largest gold reserves in the world, totaling over 8,000 metric tons. Germany ranks second with 3,352 tons, followed by Italy with 2,452 tons.

According to the latest financial report by the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. holds approximately $5.4 trillion in assets, while liabilities amount to $42 trillion. Of this, $26.5 trillion represents public debt and its associated interest. Lummis’ proposal includes the accumulation of 1 million BTC for 20 years, aiming to support the dollar against its gradual and inevitable devaluation.

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A strategic Bitcoin reserve: Trump’s vision

The bill, widely discussed in Bitcoin news outlets, comes months after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to establish a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” to strengthen the country’s financial position. During his campaign, Trump accepted cryptocurrency donations, participated in Bitcoin 2024—the world’s premier cryptocurrency conference—and pledged to make the United States a global leader in blockchain technology.

Additionally, Trump has stated plans to dismiss Gary Gensler, the current chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), known for his regulatory stance against cryptocurrencies.

A historical parallel: Bretton Woods

This proposal recalls 1971, when the United States abandoned the Bretton Woods Agreement, effectively ending the gold standard. The introduction of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could serve as a “third chapter” in the Bretton Woods saga, established in 1944, heralding a new era in global monetary history.

It’s worth noting that since the abandonment of Bretton Woods in 1971, the U.S. dollar has lost approximately 98% of its value. Establishing an alternative asset or store of value to support the dollar might be necessary.

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A global influence

The U.S. proposals are already impacting other nations. In Poland, Sławomir Mentzen, a candidate in the 2025 presidential elections, has pledged to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve if elected. A long-time cryptocurrency advocate, Mentzen revealed that he invested all his savings in Bitcoin in 2013, showcasing his confidence in its potential.

These recent political initiatives in the United States and Poland indicate the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a state-level store of value. If implemented, these proposals could mark a turning point in global economic history, redefining the role of cryptocurrencies in the international financial system.

Is the Altseason coming? Get ready with Young Platform’s Altcoin Friday

Altcoin Friday: 50% off on altcoin

The bull market is here, and it might be time to prepare for the much-anticipated altseason. How? With a 50% discount on altcoin trading fees!

This November, the crypto market has witnessed an explosion of bullish momentum, igniting euphoria among traders and investors. However, this growth has primarily benefited Bitcoin, with a few exceptions such as Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM). Many crypto enthusiasts, captivated by Bitcoin’s recent rally, are asking one pressing question: “When will the altseason begin?”

While no one can predict the market with certainty, we can offer some guidance on key metrics to monitor and detect the start of the altseason. We’re offering a 50% discount on altcoin trading fees to help you get ahead. Read on for details!

Could Altseason be just around the corner?

To predict the altseason, it’s essential to monitor two key indicators: Bitcoin Dominance and the ETH/BTC ratio.

  • Bitcoin Dominance
    This metric compares Bitcoin’s market capitalisation to the entire cryptocurrency market, expressed as a percentage. After climbing steadily throughout 2023, Bitcoin Dominance has plateaued in recent weeks and is now beginning to decline. Since 22 November, Bitcoin Dominance has dropped from 61.3% to 58%, suggesting that Bitcoin’s influence in the crypto market is diminishing.
  • ETH/BTC Ratio
    The ETH/BTC chart shows Ethereum’s relative strength to Bitcoin. This ratio has been in a downtrend since 2021 but recently found support around 0.031 BTC, halting its decline. Monitoring Ethereum’s relative strength is crucial, as ETH has historically led the alt season, often achieving strong performance before smaller-cap altcoins follow suit. Currently, the ETH/BTC ratio is at 0.037 BTC, marking a 15% increase since 22 November.

Altcoin Friday: 50% off altcoin trading fees

Now that you know what to watch to spot the start of the altseason, it’s time to talk about Altcoin Friday. To celebrate the crypto market’s bullish momentum and Black Friday, we’re offering a 50% discount on all altcoin-Euro trading pairs.

This promotion runs until Sunday, 1 December, at 11:59 PM, and applies to orders with a minimum value of €100.

Take advantage of the Discount!

For members of the Young Platform Clubs, this discount is stackable with your existing Club discount. For example, if you’re part of the Bronze Club with a 30% discount, it will be applied first, followed by the additional 50% from the Altcoin Friday promotion.

Note: This offer applies exclusively to Altcoin-Euro trading pairs on the Young Platform app (not Young Platform Pro) and does not include trading fees for altcoin-stablecoin pairs, such as ETH-USDT.

Moonshot, l’app dedicata alle meme coin su Solana

Le meme coin su Solana e l’ascesa di Moonshot

È nata una nuova stella nell’ecosistema Solana. Scopri moonshot, la nuova app per vendere è comprare soltanto meme coin.

La meme coin mania su Solana non accenna a passare. Da dicembre 2022, dopo il lancio di Bonk (BONK), diverse crypto “nate per gioco” sono esplose a intervalli regolari. Stiamo parlando, per esempio, di dogwifhat (WIF), che ha raggiunto una capitalizzazione di 4,3 miliardi di dollari e la trentaseiesima posizione nella classifica globale. O ancora di Popcat (POPCAT), cat in a dogs world (MEW) e Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT), che sono state create e si sono affermante nell’universo di Solana.

Nell’ultimo periodo è sata lanciata una nuova applicazione per smartphone che sta promuovendo ulteriormente questo trend. Un nuovo modo estremamente facile e intuitivo per comprare e vendere meme coin su Solana: Moonshot una piattaforma che rende queste crypto nate per gioco accessibili a tutti.

Solana risplende grazie alle meme coin

Se una volta le meme coin più di successo, ad esempio Shiba Inu (SHIB) e Pepe (PEPE), risiedevano su rete Ethereum, oggi la situazione sembra irreversibilmente mutata. Gli irrisori costi di transazione e la velocità di finalizzazione di queste ultime, uniti ai miglioramenti attuati dagli sviluppatori della rete, che hanno risolto i problemi di interruzione che la affliggevano, sono i motivi principali di questo successo. 

L’esplosione di quello che è da molti definito un “fenomeno culturale” sta influendo positivamente sia sulla blockchain creata da Anatoly Yakovenko che sul prezzo della sua criptovaluta nativa. SOL, dall’inizio del 2024 ad oggi, ha registrato un +174% avvicinandosi sempre di più ai suoi massimi storici del 2021, a quota 250$ circa. La sua rete, invece, ha raggiunto un valore totale bloccato (TVL) di 8,4 miliardi di dollari e generato un volume di trading complessivo di $7,4 miliardi.

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Moonshot, l’applicazione che ha ridotto all’osso il trading di meme coin, si colloca all’interno di questa incredibile esplosione della blockchain Layer 1, e punta ad accelerare ancor di più l’adozione di Solana e del mondo crypto in generale.

Moonshot: cos’è e come funziona

Fatte le dovute premesse è il momento di affrontare il tema principale di questo articolo e quindi comprendere cos’è e come funziona Moonshot, l’app per fare trading di meme con su Solana. In realtà rispondere a questa domanda è molto semplice, dato che rendere estremamente facile e intuitiva questa attività è il principale scopo della piattaforma.

Su Moonshot si possono acquistare meme coin create sulla blockchain di Solana in due modi: utilizzando la crypto SOL o direttamente la propria carta di debito/credito o il proprio conto corrente, attraverso Apple o Google Pay.

Nonostante per questo tipo di crypto si più popolare l’acquisto diretto c’è naturalmente anche la possibilità di depositare senza effettuare nessuna transazione e attendere quindi il momento pià opportuno. Su Moonshot non è però possibile acquistare tutte le meme coin di Solana, bensì solamente quelle che sono state verificate e poi integrate sulla piattaforma.

Uno dei punti di forza di questa app è sicuramente l’essenzialità. Scordatevi indicatori tecnici o grafici avanzati, anche perché non sono particolarmente utili per fare trading di meme. Su Moonshot si può tenere d’occhio l’andamento delle meme coin attraverso grafici rudimentali e analizzare pochissimi dati.

Ad esempio la capitalizzazione di mercato, il volume e la fornitura (supply) totale e circolante.Proprio per la sua essenzialità ha riscosso molto successo di recente, soprattutto tra i neofiti, registrando più di 130.000$ di utili in un solo giorno e raggiungendo la top 30 dell’App Store nel segmento Finance.

Tuttavia l’essenzialità di Moonshot non è soltanto una caratteristica positiva. Gli utenti più esperti potrebbero preferire gli exchange centralizzati più strutturati o quelli decentralizzati come Raydium, per comprare e vendere le meme coin di Solana. I primi, solitamente, rendono disponibili determinati crypto asset sulla piattaforma soltanto dopo un’attenta due diligence, mentre i secondi sono completamente liberi e richiedono, quindi, più esperienza per essere utilizzati.

Dai un’occhiata alle meme coin disponibili su Young Platform

Meme coin su Solana: il rischio è molto alto

Utilizzare Moonshot e, in generale scambiare le meme coin di Solana, è un’attività rischiosa. La maggior parte di quelle che nascono sono destinate a soccombere in poche settimane (o addirittura giorni). Questo perché è l’attenzione che una “crypto nata per gioco” riesce ad attirare che determina il suo successo o il suo fallimento. 

Acquistare una meme coin appena nata è praticamente come scommettere, dato che non è possibile orientare la decisione utilizzando analisi sui dati storici o sulla qualità dei fondamentali. Per questo motivo è consigliabile, se proprio non si riesce a fare a meno di svolgere questa attività, utilizzare una piccolissima porzione del proprio capitale. Come abbiamo detto più del 90% delle meme coin che vengono create ogni giorno non durano più di un mese. Ma la stessa percentuale si applica al numero di utenti impegnati in questa attività che riescono, nel lungo termine, a generare un profitto.


Al contrario, potrebbe avere senso puntare sull’infrastruttura che consente alle meme coin di risplendere: Solana. Essendo la criptovaluta nativa dell’omonima blockchain Layer 1, è indispensabile detenere SOL per utilizzarla e una piccola parte viene bruciata ogni volta che un utente processa una transazione. Questo processo, a lungo andare, limita la quantità circolante e tende a rendere, in futuro, la crypto deflazionaria.

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) boosts Dogecoin’s popularity

department-government-efficiency-boosts-dogecoin-doge

Discover how Donald Trump’s new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) impacts the meme coin Dogecoin.

Donald Trump has officially announced a new governmental body named the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The acronym, bearing a striking resemblance to the popular cryptocurrency Dogecoin, is no coincidence. This unexpected move highlights a growing trend where politics and meme culture intertwine, and the implications are worth exploring. Let’s dive into the political strategy behind this, its cultural significance, and its impact on the crypto market.

Meme politics meets cryptocurrency

Donald Trump and Elon Musk are no strangers to leveraging meme culture for attention and engagement. The creation of DOGE underscores how political leaders increasingly adopt internet-savvy strategies to resonate with younger, tech-savvy audiences.

Publications like the Harvard Business Review and Politico have examined this phenomenon, often called “meme politics.” By incorporating humour and recognisable symbols, leaders like Trump and Musk create a sense of belonging, particularly among non-conformist communities. The naming of DOGE—deliberately referencing the crypto world’s most iconic meme coin—perfectly aligns with this approach.

Why Dogecoin?

Dogecoin (DOGE), originally created as a joke, has evolved into a symbol of decentralisation and rebellion against traditional financial systems. With a market capitalisation exceeding $50 billion, Dogecoin recently outpaced legacy corporations like Ford in market value.

Trump and Musk’s decision to link their initiative to Dogecoin is not merely symbolic but strategic. The meme coin represents an opportunity to connect with a decentralised, grassroots movement that aligns with their political narratives’ ethos.

The Department of Government Efficiency: a radical vision

The Department of Government Efficiency, affectionately nicknamed DOGE, is more than a playful acronym. According to sources like The Washington Post, the department aims to reduce bureaucracy, slash public sector inefficiencies, and optimise government spending.

This initiative was spearheaded by Trump and Elon Musk, who had long advocated for “lean governance,” as reported by Bloomberg. Joining them is Vivek Ramaswamy, known for his success with Roivant Sciences, a biotech company celebrated for its resource-efficient strategies. Trump has likened this endeavour to a “Manhattan Project” for bureaucracy, underscoring the scale and urgency of the reform.

Dogecoin’s price surge: a familiar pattern

The announcement of DOGE has already significantly impacted Dogecoin’s value. Within days, its price doubled, climbing from $0.20 to over $0.40. This isn’t the first time Dogecoin has reacted to Musk’s or Trump’s activities. Previous instances include Musk’s tweets or the temporary rebranding of X (formerly Twitter) with Dogecoin’s logo.

Dogecoin, now ranked sixth by market capitalisation among cryptocurrencies, continues to gain momentum from this high-profile endorsement.

The future of DOGE and Dogecoin

Dogecoin’s rise reflects how politics and cryptocurrency are becoming increasingly interconnected. With Trump and Musk driving this narrative, it’s worth asking how far Dogecoin can go.

Stay tuned as DOGE, the department and the cryptocurrency, continues to make waves in politics and markets.

Bull Market and Altseason in Crypto: How to Navigate and Maximise Potential

Bull Market and Crypto Altseason: How to Manage Them

What is a Bull Market and Altseason?

Navigating a crypto bull market and altseason can be both exhilarating and challenging for investors. Historically, these cycles have presented significant opportunities, but managing these favourable moments isn’t easy. This guide offers practical strategies to help you approach the bull market and altseason, helping you avoid common pitfalls driven by emotions such as greed and unchecked optimism.

Before diving in, note that while we reference historical data, past events may not replicate exactly in future cycles.

When do Bull Markets and altseasons begin?

Determining when a bull market or an altseason begins takes a lot of work. Typically, each cycle starts with Bitcoin’s price moving upwards, sparking widespread predictions. However, understanding the timing of a market cycle is often more valuable than chasing arbitrary price targets.

Key indicators to monitor include Bitcoin dominance, which reflects BTC’s market weight relative to other cryptos, and the ETH/BTC ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s performance to Ethereum. Another essential metric is the time elapsed since the last Bitcoin halving event, which often correlates with shifts in market phases.

The crypto market cycle and the role of Bitcoin halving

The crypto market cycle is closely tied to Bitcoin’s halving events, which occur approximately every four years. Halving halves the mining rewards, effectively reducing BTC’s supply growth. Each halving has historically set off a new cycle, usually lasting about 1,000 days. Peaks generally occur a year after the previous all-time high (ATH).

Bitcoin’s market cycles usually follow this structure:

  • Bull Market: A prolonged upward trend, with BTC leading initially.
  • Altseason: Often a sub-phase within a bull market where alternative cryptocurrencies, or “altcoins,” outperform Bitcoin.

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Key phases of a Bull Market

Everyone now knows that we are in a bull market. The price of BTC has just surpassed $90,000 and seems poised to continue rising. However, let’s take a look—drawing on historical data—at the main phases of past bullish cycles.

Phase 1: Bitcoin takes the lead

At the beginning of a bull market, Bitcoin typically absorbs the majority of new liquidity entering the market. Other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, often need help keeping up with Bitcoin’s explosive gains.

Phase 2: Ethereum gains momentum

Once Bitcoin’s price stabilises or reaches a local peak, liquidity matures into Ethereum. This marks the beginning of Ethereum’s outperformance relative to Bitcoin, often accompanied by gains in promising altcoins.

Phase 3: altseason begins

As Ethereum gains traction, confidence in higher-cap altcoins rises, igniting altseason. In recent cycles, altcoins with lower market capitalisations have experienced significant price increases during this period, driven by a renewed interest in diversifying beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

During the last bull market, the undisputed standouts were Solana (SOL), which rose by +1,200% from May to November 2021, and Avalanche (AVAX), which increased by +1,500% from June to December 2021.

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Phase 4: altseason peaks

The end of altseason often coincides with high-risk, explosive price movements in smaller, less established cryptocurrencies. This period is high in FOMO (fear of missing out) and requires caution. Once prices start to decline, it may signal the end of the bull market, and holding riskier assets can lead to substantial losses.

Why Ethereum often lags behind Bitcoin early in the cycle

Ethereum’s initial lag behind Bitcoin has become even more pronounced in recent cycles. This disparity is largely due to Bitcoin’s status as the most established and “safer” asset within the crypto space. During the early stages of a bull market, investors typically favour Bitcoin over altcoins, including Ethereum. This preference has been amplified with the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs by major investment funds, enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as a lower-risk investment.

A concept called “capital rotation” explains this pattern: initially, liquidity flows into Bitcoin, and as Bitcoin stabilises, investors begin to allocate funds to Ethereum and, later, other altcoins. For this reason, tracking Bitcoin dominance and the ETH/BTC ratio is crucial, as they often provide early signals of altseason onset.

Historical Timeline of Market Cycles

Examining the timing of previous cycles is helpful for effectively managing a bull market and all seasons. While exact patterns don’t repeat, they can offer valuable insights into potential timelines.

2017 Bull Market

  • Halving Date: 11 July 2016, BTC price at $650.
  • First ATH Post-Halving: 225 days later, on 21 February 2017, at $1,115.
  • Peak ATH: 297 days after halving, on 15 December 2017, at $19,000.
  • Overall Return: Approximately +2,800% from ATH to ATH.

2020 Bull Market

  • Halving Date: 11 May 2020, BTC price at $9,000.
  • First ATH Post-Halving: 216 days later, on 13 December 2020, at $19,200.
  • Peak ATH: 330 days post-halving, on 8 November 2021, at $69,000.
  • Overall Return: +259% from ATH to ATH.

2024 Bull Market

  • Halving Date: 22 April 2024, BTC price around $65,000.
  • First ATH Post-Halving: 195 days later, on 5 November 2024, BTC reached $80,000.
  • Speculative Projection: Bitcoin might reach the peak ATH for this cycle around September 2025 if history repeats.

Ethereum’s Timeline

Ethereum, launched in 2015, has less historical data, but in the previous bull market, it exceeded its ATH from January 2018 to January 2021. If the pattern holds, Ethereum could reach a new ATH soon.

Conclusion 

A disciplined approach to timing and strategy can be a significant advantage during bull markets and altseasons. Remember that while the crypto market tends to follow cyclical patterns, these cycles don’t guarantee identical outcomes. Tracking market indicators like Bitcoin dominance and the ETH/BTC ratio can be instrumental in spotting the onset of altseason. However, as the end of the cycle nears, it’s essential to reassess exposure to high-risk assets to avoid potential losses when the market reverses.

Stay mindful of these cycles, adapt strategies accordingly, and remember to balance optimism with caution.


Bitcoin price forecast for 2025: expert predictions and future trends

Bitcoin price forecast

What does the 2025 bitcoin price forecast look like?

Bitcoin’s price forecast for 2025 is a hot topic, with experts and analysts closely watching BTC’s trajectory. In 2024, Bitcoin achieved impressive gains, starting the year at approximately $40,000 following a strong rally in 2023. From January to March 2024, Bitcoin experienced one of its most explosive movements, climbing to an all-time high of $73,700. Following Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory in early November, Bitcoin’s price broke record after record, demonstrating the currency’s resilience and appeal.

Here, we’ll explore expert forecasts and potential price movements for BTC in 2025. Will Bitcoin reach the ambitious target of $100,000 or more?

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Bitcoin price forecast for 2025: optimistic predictions

Among the most bullish Bitcoin forecasts for 2025 are some eye-catching targets from well-known figures in the crypto space.

  • Himanshu Maradiya, founder of CIFDAQ Blockchain, forecasts that BTC could reach $1 million by the end of 2025. While this projection may seem highly optimistic, various factors support it. These include rising adoption, the approval of spot ETFs in January 2024, hyperinflation weakening fiat currencies, and increased profitability for miners.
  • Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy and one of Bitcoin’s most dedicated advocates, echoes this sentiment. Saylor believes Bitcoin could reach the million-dollar mark due to its strength as a global store of value, particularly in times of economic uncertainty.
  • Chamath Palihapitiya, a prominent venture capitalist, also envisions Bitcoin as a potential safe haven from global economic instability. His BTC price forecast aligns with the $1 million mark, citing Bitcoin’s unique resilience and finite supply as key factors.

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Mid-range predictions: a realistic take on Bitcoin’s price potential

Not every expert is aiming for the $1 million mark in their Bitcoin price forecast for 2025. Others offer more conservative yet still ambitious estimates.

  • Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, predicts BTC could hit $170,000. He attributes this to Bitcoin’s limited supply and growing demand, particularly as spot ETFs make Bitcoin more accessible within global stock markets. Scaramucci notes, “Bitcoin under $100,000 will soon be a thing of the past.”
  • Pantera Capital has reiterated its Bitcoin price forecast of $114,000 by August 2025. Pantera’s projections hinge on factors such as potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and improvements in Middle Eastern stability. Pantera’s analysis also considers Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model, where the BTC supply was cut by 50% following the April 2024 halving, further increasing its scarcity.
  • Tim Draper, founder of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, targets a BTC price of $250,000 by 2025, emphasising Bitcoin’s acceptance as both a financial and technological asset.

Cautious bitcoin price forecasts for 2025

While bullish predictions dominate, some voices remain cautious or sceptical about Bitcoin’s long-term value.

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) has historically expressed scepticism. In 2022, following the FTX collapse, ECB representatives predicted Bitcoin’s decline, suggesting its stabilisation was artificially driven and claiming that BTC would become irrelevant. However, Bitcoin has more than tripled since its November 2022 low, contradicting such pessimistic views.
  • Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, has repeatedly criticised Bitcoin, describing it as a “waste of time” and comparing it to a Ponzi scheme. Dimon argues that BTC’s value will diminish as mining rewards decrease, though he recently pledged to refrain from further commentary after Bitcoin’s recent price surge.

What could influence Bitcoin’s price in 2025?

Numerous factors could impact Bitcoin’s price forecast, including:

  1. Global economic conditions
    Bitcoin often thrives during inflationary periods, and with concerns over fiat currency devaluation, demand for BTC as a hedge may rise.
  2. Spot ETFs and institutional adoption
    The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has already boosted demand, providing an accessible way for traditional investors to enter the crypto market. Greater institutional involvement could further drive up BTC’s price.
  3. Regulatory developments
    Clearer regulatory frameworks in major markets could support adoption, though overly restrictive policies could hinder growth.
  4. Market cycles and halving effects
    The April 2024 halving reduced Bitcoin’s supply rate by half, and historical patterns suggest that supply shocks can lead to price increases.

Conclusion: what’s next for Bitcoin in 2025?

The 2025 Bitcoin price forecast remains varied, with experts predicting prices from $100,000 to $1 million per BTC. Regardless of the exact figure, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid, and its appeal as an asset seems resilient in the face of both economic and regulatory challenges. While some sceptics remain unconvinced, the majority of analysts agree that BTC’s role as a store of value is likely to grow.
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Oil price forecast for 2025: expert predictions and market drivers

oil-price-forecast

2025 oil price forecast: expert insights on Brent and WTI. Discover how OPEC+, U.S. policy, and geopolitical tensions may impact oil prices next year.

As we look towards 2025, oil price forecasts are a key focus for investors and industry stakeholders. Currently, Brent crude sits at around $74 per barrel, with WTI trading slightly lower at $72 per barrel. The price of oil is influenced by a variety of factors, including the latest decision by OPEC+ to extend production cuts and ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East. These elements will likely shape the oil price forecast for 2025.

OPEC+ and the Middle Eastern conflict: key factors impacting oil prices

In early November 2024, OPEC+ announced extending voluntary production cuts until December 2024, setting a maximum daily production cap at approximately 2.2 million barrels. This move is intended to support oil prices, although recent market fluctuations—exacerbated by the U.S. election outcome and Trump’s victory—have added complexity to forecasts.

While OPEC+ aims to stabilise oil prices, many analysts suggest prices could face downward pressure in 2025. Some experts predict oil may drop to around $60 per barrel by the year’s end, although much depends on the stability of the Middle Eastern region. A potential escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict could prompt a significant price spike if the energy infrastructure in Iran were impacted.

Brent and WTI: understanding the key oil benchmarks

When discussing oil price forecasts, it’s essential to differentiate between Brent and WTI. Brent crude, primarily produced in the North Sea, is a pricing benchmark for markets across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. On the other hand, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is a mix of oils sourced in the United States, representing the American oil market. Both benchmarks are referenced in barrels, with price fluctuations influenced by supply, demand, and geopolitical factors.

Key oil price forecasts for 2025 from major institutions

Financial institutions have issued their oil price forecasts, factoring in complex geopolitical and economic conditions. Here are some of the latest insights:

  • Goldman Sachs: Initially forecasting Brent oil prices around $95 per barrel for 2024, Goldman Sachs revised its 2025 forecast downward to an average of $76 per barrel. The recent Israel-Iran tensions haven’t impacted oil prices as expected, leading Goldman to believe these geopolitical factors may not significantly affect 2025 prices.
  • JP Morgan: The bank’s outlook is slightly more bearish. It predicts a Brent price of around $75 per barrel at the start of 2025, decreasing to approximately $60 by year-end. This forecast assumes no major geopolitical shocks and a moderate global demand environment.
  • Bank of America (BoA): BoA projects Brent prices to remain stable in the second half of 2024, settling around $75 per barrel, with WTI expected to hold steady at $71. BoA’s conservative forecast considers increased output from non-OPEC countries, such as Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, which could add downward pressure to prices.
  • Citi: Citi predicts a decline in oil prices in 2025, with an average price target of $60 per barrel. The bank attributes this forecast to Trump’s re-election and the potential for new tariffs, which may prompt OPEC+ producers to ease production restrictions, thereby increasing supply and lowering prices.

Key drivers shaping the oil price forecast for 2025

The following factors are expected to influence oil prices in 2025 significantly:

  1. OPEC+ production policy
    OPEC+’s continued production cuts are a critical stabilising factor for oil prices. However, OPEC+ may adapt its approach to global demand changes or market pressures, which could alter the price trajectory 2025.
  2. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
    Ongoing conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, create supply risks that could lead to price volatility. An escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict or potential disruptions in energy infrastructure could push prices higher.
  3. U.S. foreign policy under Trump
    With Donald Trump’s re-election, potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy towards OPEC+ and Iran may impact global oil supply. Trade tariffs or increased domestic production could alter the global supply-demand balance and affect prices.
  4. Increased Non-OPEC oil supply
    Oil production from countries outside of OPEC, such as Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, is expected to grow. This could place downward pressure on prices, particularly if OPEC+ continues its current production cut strategy.

Conclusion: what’s ahead for oil prices in 2025?

In summary, the 2025 oil price forecast suggests a potential decline, with most financial institutions projecting Brent and WTI prices between $60 and $75 per barrel. The market remains sensitive to geopolitical shifts, production policies, and global economic conditions. As OPEC+ and major oil producers navigate these dynamics, oil prices are expected to reflect a balance between stabilisation efforts and increased supply.


Donald Trump wins the 2024 election: a look at the new U.S. president’s agenda

donald-trump-wins-2024-election-us-president-agenda

Donald Trump is the new president of the United States

Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election and returned to the White House. His decisive victory reflects a clear shift in American priorities, with voters drawn to his tough stance on immigration, expansive economic policies, and a more isolationist foreign policy. Trump will officially take office in January 2025, ready to lead with a strengthened Republican majority in Congress. Here’s a closer look at his win and what his administration could mean for America’s future.

How did Donald Trump win the presidency?

The U.S. electoral system is indirect, meaning American citizens do not elect the president directly. Instead, each state appoints a set of “electors” based on population. With 538 total electors nationwide, a candidate needs a majority—at least 270—to win.

In the U.S., most states operate under a “winner-takes-all” rule, meaning that the candidate who receives the majority of votes in a state claims all its electors (with Maine and Nebraska as exceptions). Key swing states—including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—played a critical role in Trump’s victory. Traditionally unpredictable, these states were ultimately decisive in the election outcome.

The role of swing states in Trump’s victory

Until election night, polling showed a close race, with neither candidate emerging as a clear frontrunner. However, in the early morning, Trump claimed enough swing states to clinch victory. With its 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania was particularly important, where Trump won by a slim 2% margin. He also secured North Carolina with 51% and Georgia with 50.7%.

Currently, as votes are still being counted in a few remaining states, Trump has a solid lead with 266 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’s 219. He is also leading in other key states, meaning a Trump presidency is almost certain.

Key policies in Donald Trump’s agenda: immigration, economy, and foreign affairs

Now that Trump is set to lead, his platform promises significant changes. Americans voted for a shift in direction, so what does Trump’s agenda entail? His policies have been designed to appeal to a conservative base and are likely to have a broad impact given the Republican majority in Congress. This means he will have substantial freedom to enact his plans, both economically and socially.

Immigration: tighter policies and enforcement

Trump has pledged to take strong action on immigration, a top concern for 61% of Americans. His rhetoric on the campaign trail has been strict, portraying immigrants as a source of crime and economic burden. Trump’s vice president, J.D. Vance, has even suggested that the administration could pursue one of the largest deportation plans in recent history. This policy could lead to a major crackdown on immigration, though Trump will need to consider constitutional protections.

Economy: protectionist policies and crypto-friendly initiatives

On the economic front, Trump has promised protectionist policies, including tariffs aimed at reducing dependence on foreign goods, particularly from China. His approach could lead to what some experts call a “trade war,” potentially impacting international markets and raising prices domestically, which could further strain inflation rates.

Trump’s stance on cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, has drawn attention. His administration has hinted at using U.S.-held Bitcoin reserves to bolster the national economy and supporting BTC mining in the U.S. The initial market reaction has been positive, with Bitcoin surging to an all-time high of $75,000 following the election news. Some states, like Florida, have already supported Bitcoin, proposing to include it in public pension funds. Other areas, like Michigan and Wisconsin, have begun to invest in Bitcoin ETFs.

Foreign policy: a shift toward isolationism

Regarding international relations, Trump’s foreign policy is expected to take an isolationist approach. He has indicated that he may scale back economic support to Ukraine, potentially destabilising U.S. relations with NATO allies. During Biden’s presidency, the U.S. gave Ukraine approximately $174 billion in aid. Trump’s stance could mean a significant shift, reducing American involvement in global conflicts and focusing on domestic priorities instead.

Trump’s administration has also signalled support for Israel in the Middle East but may reduce the scope of U.S. involvement. His approach could reshape U.S. alliances, especially in Europe, where many countries rely on U.S. support for strategic stability.

What’s next for Trump’s America?

As Donald Trump prepares to re-enter the White House, America is set for substantial changes. His policies on immigration, the economy, and foreign relations reflect a bold vision aimed at strengthening U.S. interests and security, albeit with potential challenges in terms of international diplomacy and market stability.


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The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points

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The FED meeting on 7 November: the US central bank cut rates by 25 basis points. Discover the impact on markets and future rate expectations

The Federal Reserve met on 7 November 2024 to decide on interest rates. Since the FOMC did not meet in October, what happened after the 50 basis point cut in September? Could the combination of Donald Trump’s victory and the reduction in the cost of money further boost the price of Bitcoin?

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Economic indicators are influencing Fed decisions.

Before analysing what happened at the 7 November 2024 FED meeting, it is good to list the economic indicators that the US central bank assesses before deciding on interest rates.

One of the main objectives of the Fed’s monetary policy is to contain inflation. When prices rise excessively, the central bank raises interest rates to curb and stabilise demand. From August to October, the consumer price index (CPI), the main indicator used to estimate inflation, fell 50 basis points to an annual rate of 2.4 %, down from 2.9 %. 

This slowdown in inflation was made possible by the restrictive monetary policies implemented by most Western countries in the past two years. Since, today, the situation seems to be under control, central banks are proceeding with progressive interest rate cuts in order to stimulate the economy after having previously cooled it down.

Employment and, thus, the health of the labour market also plays an important role in the Fed’s decisions. In recent months, the unemployment rate has been stable at around 4.2%, but if it had risen, it would have been necessary to intervene with a tighter plan of interest rate cuts. However, since this did not happen, the Fed could, and probably will, proceed gradually.

Finally, when the Fed decides on interest rates, it also considers Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Excessively fast economic growth may fuel inflation, while weak growth may suggest the need for economic stimulus, such as rate cuts. In October, economic growth in the US slowed, and the Fed responded with a 25 basis point rate cut.

Has the election of Donald Trump affected rates?

The election of Donald Trump did not affect the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, whose decision was in line with expectations on interest rates. Some experts thought that the FED might leave rates unchanged given the new US president’s willingness to apply tariffs on goods from abroad, particularly from China, which might raise inflation again in the future.

However, the majority still expected a 25 basis point cut, which, in fact, happened. Polymarket, the crypto world’s leading prediction market, effectively summarised the consensus view, which, as with the presidential election, guessed correctly.

Gregory Daco, Chief Economist of Ernest Young, one of the world’s leading consulting firms, was also of this view, stating on Wednesday: “Declining inflation and wage and productivity growth should favour a gradual recalibration of the Fed’s monetary policy with a 25 basis point rate cut after the election.”

November 2024 FED meeting: the impact on the market

It is very difficult to estimate the possible impact of the rate cut at the Fed’s meeting on 7 November 2024, mainly because it comes after the two most important days of the year. Wednesday saw the conclusion of the US elections, in which Donald Trump emerged as the winner, who will return to Capitol Hill after the Democratic interlude of the last four years.

Had Kamala Harris won, the situation would probably have been different. Still, the Republicans in power from January onwards will be the ones who have also won a majority in Congress. What has happened and all the promises associated with a new Trump mandate have caused the price of major assets, especially Bitcoin and Tesla shares, to explode upwards. Less than twenty minutes after the opening of the markets, spot ETFs on Bitcoin recorded $1 billion in volume, while on the day of 7 November, the absolute record of capital inflows was $1.38 billion.

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However, the last word has yet to be said. Regarding the crypto world, what happened this week seems to have rekindled the bull market, which was abruptly interrupted in April after the all-time highs (ATH) were reached—historical highs which, again, have been updated in recent hours. Analysing the stock market, one can see that the main indices, above all, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, have been recording bullish price movements at a very sustained pace for quite some time.

In short, the million-dollar question related to the FED meeting on 7 November is one: will the interest rate cut make the markets rise further, especially Bitcoin? Or will the major assets slow down after the bull run of the last few days?

What Will Happen to the Stock Market in Q4 2024?

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How is the stock market faring, and what can we expect in Q4 2024? An analysis based on BlackRock’s quarterly report

BlackRock’s latest quarterly report on the stock market opens with a thought-provoking quote from Tony DeSpirito, the Global Chief Investment Officer: “The economy is not the stock market. And that’s good news.” This line suggests that the stock market may not necessarily follow suit even if the real economy slows down. Here, we break down BlackRock’s outlook for the stock market over the final quarter of 2024.

Stock Market: General Observations

The fourth quarter of 2024 promises to be a dynamic period for both the stock market and cryptocurrencies. BlackRock analysts predict that risk assets may experience heightened volatility, driven primarily by the upcoming U.S. elections and central banks’ potential rate cuts, especially by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Overall, BlackRock’s experts anticipate that rate cuts could bolster the stock market and create fresh investment opportunities.

However, the third quarter of 2024 was also marked by significant volatility, largely due to concerns over economic deceleration and recession risks. The Fed’s seemingly delayed response to these issues has added to market uncertainties. Despite these challenges, BlackRock’s report underscores that the fundamentals of the stock market have remained strong.

Two Sides of Volatility

The report delves into the topic of volatility, a critical factor in understanding the stock market’s outlook for the months ahead. BlackRock’s analysts remind us that while investor sentiment can move markets in the short term, fundamentals ultimately prevail over time. Investors should therefore stay focused on long-term value creation, even if the coming months bring sharp price swings.

Tony DeSpirito elaborates on the benefits of volatility with four key insights:

  1. Volatility can be advantageous: Market corrections allow investors to increase their exposure to high-quality assets, particularly when these price drops stem from sentiment-driven events that don’t alter the asset’s underlying fundamentals. By taking advantage of dips, investors may strengthen their portfolios.
  2. Volatility is normal: The stock market has always relied on its ups and downs to recover from major downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis. BlackRock expects a similar scenario in the coming months, with peaks in volatility likely due to the Fed’s decisions.
  3. Market corrections are common: Over the past 35 years, the S&P 500 has experienced 20 corrections of over 10%, yet it has delivered an average annual return of +14%. The takeaway is clear: investing with a long-term perspective can help investors ride out market fluctuations effectively.
  4. Higher volatility can yield better returns: BlackRock’s data show that periods of increased volatility often lead to superior returns when the Volatility Index (VIX) remains below 12 points and six-month returns for the S&P 500 average around 5%. However, when the VIX hits 29 or higher, these returns jump to 16%. In short, volatility can drive short-term returns.

U.S. Elections and Their Impact on the Stock Market

The November U.S. elections are another major event that could influence the stock market this quarter. BlackRock has analysed how previous elections have affected stock performance, concluding that while election results often cause immediate price swings, the longer-term effects tend to be muted. Since 1996, only two out of seven elections have triggered post-election volatility lasting more than eleven months.

BlackRock’s message is clear: even during times of political uncertainty, investors should maintain a long-term view. History shows that the market has overcome many challenges since 1974, from presidential resignations to stagflation, the 1987 crash, the dot-com bubble, the 2008 crisis, and COVID-19. Patience, it seems, remains an invaluable virtue in the world of investing.

The Impact of Fed Rate Cuts

BlackRock’s report also explores the potential impact of Fed rate cuts on the stock market. The analysis confirms that stock markets tend to perform well when rates are reduced, especially if these cuts do not coincide with a recession. Historically, large-cap stocks have typically outperformed smaller-cap stocks for up to three years following the first rate cut.

When broken down by sector, the report shows that healthcare and consumer goods stocks tend to experience above-average growth in the year following an initial rate cut. This insight could benefit investors seeking defensive exposure in an uncertain environment.

And What About the Crypto Market?

In recent months, BlackRock and its CEO, Larry Fink, have shown a growing interest in cryptocurrency. BlackRock’s latest report highlights Bitcoin’s unique potential as a portfolio diversifier. Unlike traditional stock market assets, Bitcoin is largely uncorrelated with equities, which can provide additional resilience to a portfolio. Bitcoin’s rallies tend to be more explosive, offering investors a high-growth asset option with its own distinctive cycle.

Thanks to its secure, immutable blockchain technology, Bitcoin is viewed as a reliable store of value. Its Proof of Work system ensures that thousands of nodes and miners verify each transaction, providing unmatched security. This immutability and transparency set Bitcoin apart, cementing its position as a unique alternative asset for long-term investors.

Conclusion

The fourth quarter of 2024 presents both challenges and opportunities for the stock market. Investors can expect volatility to continue with the upcoming U.S. elections, potential rate cuts by the Fed, and ongoing global economic shifts. However, BlackRock’s analysis suggests that a long-term perspective and focus on fundamentals can help investors make the most of these market conditions.

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