According to the most optimistic investors, the recent bearish movement will kick off the altcoin season. According to the most pessimistic the bull market is over. What is the truth? Does it all come down to quantitative easing?
The season of quantitative easing still appears distant, while the prices of significant assets—ranging from cryptocurrencies to equities—have dropped significantly in recent days. What is lacking in this bull market, which seems quite different from previous ones? While nothing has been lost, the global landscape regarding monetary policies, particularly those of the United States, appears far from a turning point.
In this article, we will explore quantitative easing and discuss why igniting the next alt season might be necessary.
Quantitative easing: what is it?
Understanding quantitative easing is crucial for navigating the current market landscape. Simply put, it is “the central banks‘ secret weapon” for stimulating the economy. This contrasts with quantitative tightening, which involves raising interest rates and decreasing the money supply.
Quantitative easing involves significantly lowering interest rates, making it easier for individuals and businesses to borrow money. It also includes the purchase of government bonds and other financial assets. It acts like an “all you can eat” buffet for central banks. This influx of cheap liquidity, which comes from the money that investors choose not to invest in bonds due to their very low yields, then flows into assets that are considered riskier, particularly stocks and cryptocurrencies.
For the past fifteen years, quantitative easing has been the solution for every crisis, from the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It has also fueled recent bull markets. However, the current situation is different. Despite declining inflation between 2021 and 2023, interest rates remain above the 2% target, at 3% in January 2025. This limits the potential for aggressive monetary policy easing. Additionally, this comes on the heels of Trump’s recent announcements about new tariffs, which have been confirmed for Canada and Mexico. According to the Federal Reserve, cutting rates too quickly could lead to excessive speculation in the financial markets and an overheated economy.
The growth of Bitcoin’s market capitalisation
Despite the absence of quantitative easing monetary policies, the market has experienced explosive growth in the final months 2024. Since November 2022, Bitcoin’s price has surged by 448%, and its market capitalisation has risen from USD 300 billion to USD 1,760 billion, peaking at USD 2,150 billion.
This impressive growth is partly due to the approval of spot ETFs. These financial instruments have attracted approximately $38 billion to Bitcoin and currently hold $101 billion worth of BTC, representing 5.79% of the circulating supply. Bitcoin had never before seen a market capitalisation increase of $1.7 trillion at its peak in January 2025. A look at past cycles reveals the following performance:
- 2015-2017: +11,082% over 1,068 days, with a $326 billion increase in market capitalisation.
- 2018-2021: +2,021% over 1,060 days, with a $1.21 trillion increase in market capitalisation.
Overall, this market cycle appears strongly positive when analysing Bitcoin’s performance and the milestones achieved over the past three years.
For example, Bitcoin (BTC) has become a central topic in global financial discussions, significantly influencing debates in the United States, including during the presidential elections. Notably, Senator Cynthia Lummis and former President Donald Trump have both advocated for creating a strategic reserve of BTC for the U.S. Treasury.
Some considerations on the market cycle we are currently experiencing
Let’s set aside quantitative easing, which we’ve already noted is a missing element in this market cycle, and instead focus on how this cycle differs from previous ones. The key question for many crypto enthusiasts is: Will there be an altseason, and will it follow the recent market crash?
It is difficult to determine ‘where we are in the cycle’.
On one hand, we can confidently say that we have not yet experienced a true altcoin season. On the contrary, we have gone through one or more meme coin seasons, the most recent coinciding with the launch of TRUMP, a meme coin introduced directly by the former U.S. president in January.
On the other hand, the price of Bitcoin has increased significantly, rising by 60% from the previous cycle’s all-time high. Additionally, it has been over 12 months since Bitcoin first broke its all-time high in January 2024, making this cycle even more unusual.
Despite this, some industry experts believe the outcome is still uncertain. The new retail investors who have entered the market—partly due to the launch of TRUMP—could return if an altcoin season finally takes place.
Has the meme coin casino replaced the altseasons?
This point is closely related to the previous one. The launch of numerous new meme coins, along with the strong performance of associated platforms such as pump.fun, acts as a funnel that attracts and drains liquidity from the crypto market.
As a result, many investors have shifted their focus to the meme coin sector, while others are giving up on altcoins. Additionally, the high expectations surrounding Donald Trump’s election have somewhat diminished. The president has notent has commented in a while on crypto, particularly since the launch of his meme coin.
An axiom that has always applied in previous crypto market cycles—likely triggered by quantitative tightening and liquidity injections—states that the price of Bitcoin rises first, then Ethereum’s price follows. Finally, liquidity flows into smaller altcoins. However, today, the situation seems to have changed. Only time will tell if this marks a paradigm shift or a delay.
Major market players are continuing to accumulate.
Let’s conclude this article with some positive news. Despite the lack of quantitative easing, which has historically catalyzed bull markets, the current cycle demonstrates remarkable resilience. Bitcoin, fueled by institutional ETFs and unprecedented political recognition, has defied historical patterns by growing in a more restrictive monetary environment. However, the absence of a traditional ‘alt season’ and the dominance of meme coins prompt questions about the future of cryptocurrency: Are we witnessing a paradigm shift or merely a temporary pause?
The answer may be found in patience. Institutional investors continue to accumulate assets, indicating that long-term confidence remains strong. While the current macroeconomic climate—characterised by high interest rates and geopolitical tensions—may dampen enthusiasm, it also creates opportunities for strategic accumulation, potentially setting the stage for a future surge. The actual ‘trigger’ for market movement may not be the return of quantitative easing but rather the market’s adaptation to new rules, where innovation, regulation, and mass adoption craft a different narrative. As the history of past cycles teaches us, one certainty remains: markets always surprise us, often just when expectations are low.
