The ranking of the tallest skyscrapers in the world

Les plus hauts gratte-ciel du monde : classement 2025

The world’s tallest skyscrapers are primarily located in Asia and were constructed in the past 15 years. Here is the ranking.

Constructing the world’s tallest skyscraper has been a challenge for nearly 150 years, dating back to the Home Insurance Building, which was completed in Chicago in 1885. Since that time, skyscrapers have emerged in numerous cities, serving both urban planning needs and symbolic purposes related to power and status. Today, advancements in technology allow skyscrapers to achieve remarkable heights. Explore the current ranking of these towering structures!

The ranking of the 10 tallest skyscrapers in the world

Thanks to recent technological and construction innovations, engineers worldwide have designed skyscrapers that challenge the laws of physics in terms of height and grandeur. This top 10 list includes completed buildings only, excluding those that are under construction or in the planning stage. Let’s explore together the 10 tallest skyscrapers in the world.

  1. Burj Khalifa, Dubai: 828 m

The Burj Khalifa, situated in the capital of the United Arab Emirates, has held the title of the world’s tallest skyscraper since its completion in 2010. This engineering marvel features approximately 185,000 square meters of indoor living space and comprises 163 floors. It accommodates offices, hotels, and residential apartments.

  1. Merdeka 118, Kuala Lumpur: 679 m

This skyscraper, completed in 2023, is among the newest additions to its category. Known as PNB118 and KL118, it features offices, a hotel, and a five-story shopping centre. Construction began in 2014 and took approximately seven years, costing around USD 2.5 billion.

  1. Shanghai Tower, Shanghai: 632 m

Ranking third among the world’s tallest skyscrapers, this impressive building is renowned for its aesthetics. Its curved, spiralling façade symbolises China’s transformation from poverty to economic prosperity. The Shanghai Tower is also one of the most sustainable skyscrapers globally, thanks to its choice of materials, advanced ventilation systems, and the integration of renewable energy sources.

  1. Mecca Royal Clock Tower, Mecca: 601 m

The Mecca Royal Clock Tower is part of a building complex known as Abraj Al Bait and is situated above the Holy Mosque of Mecca and the Kaaba, which is considered Islam’s holiest site. The clock in this tower has a diameter of 43 meters, making it the largest in the world by area and also the tallest. The tower houses a hotel that can accommodate approximately 100,000 pilgrims. Completed in 2012, the construction of this skyscraper cost an estimated $15 billion, which may make it the most expensive building in the world.

  1. Ping An Finance Centre, Shenzhen: 599 m

Completed in 2017, it is the second-tallest skyscraper in China and, like the Shanghai Tower, carries significant symbolic meaning. Its impressive height reflects the remarkable growth of Shenzhen, a city whose population has surged from 60,000 to 13.5 million since 1980. Additionally, it is the second-largest skyscraper in the world by total area, boasting a floor space of approximately 500,000 m².

  1. Lotte World Tower, Seoul: 555 m

The Lotte World Tower is the only building from South Korea included in the ranking. Its design is inspired by the country’s culture: the tapered shape resembles brushes used in Korean calligraphy, while the clear glass exterior reflects the region’s traditional ceramics and porcelain. With 123 floors, the tower features a 7-star luxury hotel, office spaces, and residential apartments.

  1. One World Trade Centre, New York: 541 m

Also known as the Freedom Tower, One World Trade Centre is the tallest skyscraper in the Western Hemisphere. The building holds significant symbolism for several reasons: its height of 1,776 feet commemorates the year of the United States Declaration of Independence, and its construction, which was completed in 2014, symbolises rebirth following the tragedy of September 11, 2001. In fact, the soaring Freedom Tower represents a vision for the future, while the 9/11 Memorial, which is set lower to the ground, serves as a poignant reminder of the past.

  1. Guangzhou CTF Finance Centre, Guangzhou: 530 m

Known as the East Tower, this building is the third-tallest skyscraper in China. It was designed and engineered by the same firms that created the Ping An Finance Centre in Shenzhen, which is the fifth-tallest skyscraper in the world. The East Tower features 111 stories and includes office spaces, luxury apartments with inner courtyards, a five-star hotel, an indoor swimming pool, as well as various bars and restaurants.

  1. Tianjin CTF Finance Centre, Tianjin: 530 m

Although the Tianjin CTF Finance Centre and the Guangzhou skyscraper are the same height, the Tianjin CTF Finance Centre ranks ninth among the world’s tallest skyscrapers. This ranking is due to differences in measurement techniques. Factors such as architectural height, measured without including antennas, and other parameters like the height of the highest occupied floor and the total number of floors are considered. The Guangzhou CTF Finance Centre ranks slightly higher because it performs better in these two specific categories.

  1. CITIC Tower, Beijing: 528 m

The final skyscraper among the tallest in the world is located in the Chinese capital and is known as China Zun. This building, like many others in Asia, holds significant symbolic value: the “zun” is an ancient Chinese ceremonial vessel, and the architecture of this remarkable structure is inspired by its shape. An interesting fact about the skyscraper is that from its top three floors, one can see Zhongnanhai, the headquarters of the Chinese Communist Party. In 2018, the Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao even proposed expropriating the building for national security reasons.

Now that you know the top 10 tallest skyscrapers in the world, you may be inspired to book a trip to see them in person. By joining one of our clubs, you can enjoy discounts on your travels, so take advantage of this opportunity!

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ECB April 2025 meeting: results

Réunion de la BCE

The ECB met on 17 April to decide on monetary policies for the Eurozone: what happened to interest rates? Here the results

The European Central Bank meeting on Wednesday, 17 April 2025, saw the twenty-six members of the Governing Council meet to discuss, among other things, monetary policies in the Eurozone. On the table were decisions on cutting interest rates, complicated by Donald Trump’s recent announcements on tariffs. What are the results?

ECB meeting: What is the economic context?

The ECB’s third meeting in 2025 was held against a particularly challenging economic backdrop, further complicated by Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcement and subsequent pause on those tariffs. Markets are experiencing significant turbulence, and economic uncertainty is prevailing across Europe. The main discussion topics included economic growth, which is adversely affected by the tariffs, and the deflationary pressure they could cause. Let’s take a closer look at what was decided.

ECB cuts interest rates

Wednesday, 17 April, Frankfurt. The Governing Council of the European Central Bank announced its monetary policy decision for the euro area. As expected by most analysts, the ECB cut its three key interest rates. Accordingly, the rate on the primary refinancing operations falls to 2.40%, the rate on the marginal lending facility to 2.65% and the rate on deposits at the central bank to 2.25%, effective from 23 April 2025.

The motivations behind the choice

The ECB explained that the decision was guided by the fact that the disinflation process is in line with expectations: inflation in the euro area is expected to be around the Governing Council’s medium-term target of 2% on a sustained basis. The Eurozone economy has shown resilience against the recent shocks in the global market, although the future outlook has worsened due to the trade war and tariffs. 

Future Perspectives:

Reducing interest rates is an expansionary economic policy aimed at fostering growth by lowering the cost of borrowing. This allows companies to borrow more easily, increasing production and overall wealth creation, which benefits the economy. When borrowing money becomes cheaper, the stock markets also tend to thrive, as low rates encourage the flow of capital. Companies can more easily access funds for financial transactions, acquisitions, and expansions, which increases their potential earnings and enhances the likelihood of rising share prices.

Investors often shift from more stable but less profitable securities like bonds to riskier financial assets offering higher potential returns. This second category includes stocks and their indices, as well as cryptocurrencies.

With this meeting, the ECB confirms the trajectory

In April 2025, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. This move reflects progress in the fight against inflation, and the central bank remains cautiously optimistic, confirming its future plans. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether the data supports this outlook and the ECB’s next steps. The following monetary policy meeting is scheduled for June 4, 2025.

Stay informed on essential updates with Young Platform!

How to make money: beyond the promises of the gurus

How to make money: beyond the promises of the gurus

How can one make money? This question has been asked throughout history, and while many TikTok gurus offer dubious advice, this guide provides solid arguments. Let’s get started!

Sellers of miraculous amulets and infallible methods to become highly wealthy have always existed. Humans inherently desire to believe there are ways to achieve maximum results with minimal effort. With the rise of the internet, these merchants of false promises have multiplied, crafting increasingly absurd strategies. Today’s goal is to dismantle these ridiculous illusions and, more importantly, to provide you with serious (though more labour-intensive) alternatives for increasing your wealth. Enjoy the journey!

The Fuffa Guru, who tells you how to make money 

In 2024, the authoritative Treccani encyclopedia included the neologism “fuffa guru” in its vocabulary, defining it as “one who, exploiting marketing techniques, organises and manages courses, videos, and seminars on the internet for profit, while fraudulently promoting easy ways to make money.” This definition is perfect, elegant, and highly realistic. The fuffa guru is a merchant of illusions, presenting himself as a modern hero. 

Often emerging from the poorer segments of society, he may have experienced a childhood steeped in abject poverty, initially despised by those around him and later burdened with debt. He is an outcast who feels destined to remain among the marginalised. However, the fuffa guru refuses to accept this fate. Driven by an insatiable desire for wealth and an even stronger thirst for revenge, he ultimately realises,This is not my destiny.” He believes that “a change of mindset is necessary because poverty is a state of mind, not merely a lack of money.”

The fuffa guru shares his story of sleepless nights devouring books and completely renouncing parties, birthdays, and weddings, stating, “While others were busy collecting gigs, I was busy collecting skills.” He uncovers secrets that the masses- the 99%—%-overlook, takes the red pill, and exits the Matrix. The fuffa guru is now prepared for the climb to success. Armed with a new mindset and the knowledge he has gained, which will form his ‘method’, he proudly claims to have achieved wealth rapidly and exponentially. Reflecting on his journey, he expresses gratitude to himself “for not being weak and for not giving up.”

In the final phase of his story, he enjoys a life of unrestrained luxury between Dubai and Manhattan, travels on private jets, and drives Lamborghinis. This lavish lifestyle serves as concrete proof that his method is effective and that anyone, by adopting the right mindset and following his advice, can attain similar success, though it comes at a cost. But what does this infallible method entail?

Making easy money, fast and effortlessly: the fuffa guru’s formula

Despite the absence of evidence of his work experience or how he amassed his supposed fortune, this self-proclaimed guru insists on teaching you how to make money quickly and effortlessly. His motive, he claims, is to share knowledge and help you achieve financial freedom. How does he propose to do this? He charges hundreds, if not thousands, of euros for access to his seminars and webinars, where you can listen to him speak.

The formula for wealth he promotes inevitably revolves around the same side hustles. He talks about dropshipping, explaining how to create a successful online store without the need to hold inventory, all while promising high profits with minimal effort. Alternatively, he may introduce you to “passive” affiliate marketing basics. This method automatically generates enormous passive income through affiliate links, allowing you to earn commissions on promoted products.

Another recurring theme is network marketing, often accompanied by the enticing phrase “become your entrepreneur!” In this model, making money hinges on selling products (such as cosmetics, supplements, or services) while primarily focusing on recruiting others to join your network. These recruits, in turn, would earn money by bringing in even more recruits. Does that sound familiar?

It’s important to highlight the concept of real estate flipping, which involves purchasing, renovating, and selling a property for a higher price. This method is often combined with real estate arbitrage, where an individual rents a property long-term and then sublets it to generate a return on their investment. 

Additionally, we can’t forget about online trading, which is often seen as the ultimate opportunity by those participating. Many enthusiasts claim that ​​dedicating just a few minutes a day, it’s possible to earn substantial amounts of money through supposedly foolproof signals and highly confidential techniques taught in expensive, exclusive courses. But are these methods as effective as they claim to be?

What the fuffa gurus don’t tell you 

When they ‘explain’ how to make a lot of money quickly and effortlessly, the so-called gurus conveniently forget to mention the downsides of these activities, which, let’s remember, are legal and legitimate. 

For example, dropshipping comes with various expenses related to advertising, shipping, and supplier management, along with the need for customer service. Additionally, the market is highly competitive, and the risk of losing large quantities of unsold inventory is significant.

Switching to affiliate marketing, it’s essential to understand that generating passive income requires high traffic. This means that many users must purchase a product through your specific link. You might achieve this if you are an influencer with tens of thousands of followers. Otherwise, you must build a large audience, create valuable content, and invest in SEO and advertising—hardly a passive endeavour.

Multi-level marketing is essentially a refined and professional term for a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme. The profits predominantly come from new participants recruiting additional newcomers, and like any Ponzi scheme, it is, by nature, doomed to collapse.

When it comes to side hustles in real estate, many successful figures fail to mention that you need collateral and substantial initial financial resources to start a business in this field. Additionally, online trading— especially intraday trading that involves significant (and often unintentional) leverage — can be hazardous. It’s no secret that most retail traders (over 90%) who engage in these trades lose money. While it is possible to make money trading, it requires thorough research, strong skills, and capital to invest. Often, claims of infallible signals and secret techniques are ineffective or even scams.

Now that we’ve addressed the illusions of success, let’s move on to more serious matters.

How to make serious money: Patience is the virtue of the strong

Generating passive income is possible but requires time, patience, and financial investment. One popular method is affiliate marketing, which can be effective but often stems from prior work. To earn significant commissions, you need traffic, which can only be achieved after creating a quality product.

Being a content creator is a legitimate career today, but demands dedication, effort, passion, and specific skills. Investing in real estate is also a time-honoured activity that many Italians are enthusiastic about; we are fond of bricks and mortar! However, initial financial capacity and support from specialists for market analysis and legal and commercial advice are required.

A more accessible option could be real estate crowdfunding, a collective financing method where multiple individuals invest together in real estate projects to share profits. This type of crowdfunding is divided into two categories: lending crowdfunding, which allows lenders to provide funds for real estate transactions in exchange for interest; and equity crowdfunding, in which investors purchase shares in a company, becoming partners who share in both profits and losses.

In conclusion, we cannot overlook stock market investments if asked how to make money and grow our capital. However, it’s important to clarify that we are not referring to speculative trading, but rather to the art of long-term investing. John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, strongly advocated passive investing through low-cost index funds. His philosophy was built upon several key principles, including broad diversification, minimal costs, a long-term perspective, and a risk-adjusted asset allocation. This approach involves holding funds that reflect market trends, such as the Total Stock Market or Total Bond Market, over many years, typically in the form of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

Long-term investing pays off, the data says so

Many gurus promoting easy money strategies overlook the importance of investments when discussing ways to make money. They typically start with the obligatory disclaimer:past returns are not indicative of future returns” because predicting the future is impossible. However, historically, long-term investing in the stock market has proven to be profitable. 

For instance, the S&P 500, one of the most well-known indices representing the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the U.S., has achieved an average annual real return of 6.5%, adjusted for inflation. Similarly, the MSCI World index, which includes the largest publicly listed companies worldwide, has reported average annual real returns of 5.6%

It’s important to factor in the power of compound interest, which Albert Einstein called “the eighth wonder of the world.” Practically, leveraging compound interest means reinvesting the returns earned to generate additional returns. This creates a “snowball” effect: as the snowball rolls down a slope, it accumulates more snow, increasing its size and accelerating its speed.

Let’s consider an example involving a TikTok guru who offers lessons on making money through dropshipping. They charge €50 for an introductory lesson, €500 for a comprehensive basic course, and €2,500 for an advanced course, totalling €3,050. The question is: Will this investment be successful? It’s impossible to know for sure.

Let’s compare that investment with putting the same amount into the S&P 500 for 20 years. Based on historical data and reinvesting profits, you could potentially end up with around €10,500 at the end of this period. 

While neither scenario can guarantee a specific outcome, nearly 70 years of historical data and academic research inform our decisions regarding the S&P 500. In contrast, when it comes to the TikTok guru, we can often only rely on an inflated online persona supported by fake followers and rented cars for show.

 An inflated online persona supported by fake followers and rented cars for show.

The road to making money is long and winding, and the gurus know it.

Understanding how to earn a substantial amount of money without enduring long waits or struggles is a human desire. Even those who sell false promises of happiness are often just looking for creative—and sometimes deceptive—ways to achieve this. Consider this: why would someone who travels in private jets, drives only Lamborghinis, and dines exclusively on Kobe beef tartare waste time attending lengthy seminars and engaging in one-on-one calls? Is it to “diversify”? Or to “help humanity”? Or perhaps because the real way to get rich effortlessly is for you to purchase their course? The answers are clear.

Instead of relying on dubious figures found online, it is wiser to roll up your sleeves, study, and explore more realistic and legitimate alternatives, such as long-term investments in the stock market. If you’re interested in this topic, we at Young Platform regularly publish content on subjects like why you should invest in Bitcoin for the long term. Subscribe below to stay updated!

Emergency fund: what it is and why it is essential

Emergency Fund: what it is and why it is essential

The emergency fund serves as a personal treasury for unexpected events, and it can be a lifesaver. How is it created, and what is its significance?

Many people recognise the emergency fund as a well-known concept, but often postpone creating it. The reason for this is straightforward: an emergency is an unpredictable and distant event that tends to seem less urgent than immediate issues with tight deadlines. However, when an emergency does occur, it can lead to significant stress and anxiety. In this article, we will explore why building an emergency fund is essential and provide a step-by-step guide on how to do it.  

Have an emergency fund: Be the ant in a world of cicadas.

The importance of the emergency fund has been part of human culture since time immemorial, if we think that Aesop wrote the fable of ‘The Ant and the Cicada‘ more than two thousand years ago. Admittedly, the Greek author does not tell us about the emergency fund, but he makes us realise how important it is to arrive prepared for the challenges that life, sooner or later, presents us with. The cicada sings all summer and does not worry about winter. At the same time, the ant slowly accumulates the necessary supplies: the cold arrives, the cicada goes hungry, and the ant serenely enjoys the fruits of its labour

This moral, although simple and obvious at first glance, shoves reality in our faces. We know perfectly well that the future will come knocking sooner or later, but despite this, we are only willing to take the initiative when we feel the breath on our necks. The result? Total unpreparedness mixed with panic and stress. 

The emergency fund serves precisely to avoid these unpleasant situations and to continue living our lives in peace, regardless of accidents, surprises or sudden desires. It allows you to buy a new phone, repair your car, or even go see Green Day in Florence without having to – a random example – sell the Ethereum you staked on Young Platform. Now that its usefulness is obvious, let’s see how to build an emergency fund, step by step. 

Creating an emergency fund is challenging, but it can be done.

Before proceeding to set aside finances, one must understand one’s savings goal because it is uninspiring and unwise to hoard money to the bitter end. To do this, you need to track and analyse your monthly expenses, fixed and extra, such as rent, petrol, food, subscriptions and so on. You can write them down in pen, use Excel or make your life easier with a budget management app. Now, multiply the figure by three or six, depending on your needs: the result of this complex mathematical operation equals your savings target, because the primary purpose of the emergency fund is to allow you to live without a fixed income. Once you have worked out how much you need to save, creating a strategy to make it a reality is time.

Putting money aside is a test of great discipline: the art of saving has to come to terms with the human soul and its irrepressible and impulsive desire for gratification. Moreover, it is exhausting when the goal is a large sum of money because it seems so far away. To reduce this cognitive load, specific strategies allow you to reach your goal by taking advantage of time, i.e., by installing the set amount in periodic instalments. Of these, the famous 52-week challenge would take you a year to build up your emergency fund. If, on the other hand, you want to speed things up, the advice is to make a kind of accumulation plan and withdraw a fixed amount of money. In this case, remember the teaching of the well-known book ‘The Richest Man in Babylon‘: if you receive a fixed monthly income, take it out and then live on the rest, never the other way around. This means that if you earn €1,300 a month, you first take out €100 and then recalibrate your life based on the €1,200 that remains, as if the €100 had never existed. 

Let us give a practical example to avoid any doubt. Our example is Mario, a 28-year-old boy living in Milan who works as an office clerk. Mario writes down everything for a month and discovers that his essential expenses amount to about €1,185, divided as follows: 

  • 750€ rent per month for a two-room apartment (he was fortunate)
  • 100€ bills
  • 45€ internet (Wi-Fi and mobile)
  • 40€ vehicle subscription 
  • 250€ supermarket shopping 

Mario decides it is time to start thinking about an emergency fund. He is 28 years old, young and knows that if he loses his job, he will be able to find another one in a relatively short time. His fund, therefore, should correspond to four months’ expenses: 1185 x 4 = 4740€. He rounds up and opts for the 5,000€. At this point, he will just have to figure out how to accumulate it. 

Perfect. You know how much you have to save, and you also know how to do it. The time has come to work on self-control. Of course, being rigorous and consistent in saving does not imply embracing asceticism: nobody is asking you to be the new Mahatma Gandhi. It just means concentrating and understanding what you really need. An interesting technique is to wait until the next day and ask yourself, “Do I still need that limited edition poster with Walter White and Gus Fring having lunch in Los Pollos Hermanos?” Yes, you will still need it. But you have been practising, and this exercise might save you a little extra next time. 

Nice but… the emergency fund has a big problem.

Your emergency fund now exists and is no longer just a good New Year’s resolution. However, it doesn’t end there, there is still one hurdle to overcome, the number one enemy of savings, the final boss: inflation. Indeed, in theory, this liquid treasure you have built up with so much effort, like a bit of ant, is destined to stay put for quite a while – knock on wood – because it is meant for emergencies. The problem is that time passes, inflation rises, and your emergency fund loses value.

You thought you had the solution ready to face the final boss, huh? Super Mario had to cross eight worlds to defeat Bowser and retrieve Peach. All you have to do is sign up below and read the articles we post about it, like this one. Until next time!

How do interest rates work? Why does the ECB raise them, and what are the implications?

Hausse des taux d’intérêt

What are the consequences of the European Central Bank (ECB) raising interest rates? It might seem like a technical adjustment, but the impact of this policy is significant, affecting everyone—from businesses to individual savers. So, what actually happens when the ECB makes this decision during its monetary policy meetings?

Here is the full calendar of the European Central Bank’s meetings for 2025.

What Are Interest Rates?

Before exploring the consequences of an ECB interest rate hike, it’s essential to clarify a few basic concepts. Generally speaking, interest rates are percentages that indicate the cost of borrowing money—that is, what you pay the bank when you take out a loan. At the same time, they determine how much your savings earn—essentially, the return on money deposited in a bank.

For example, if you borrow €10,000 at an interest rate of 3%, you’ll need to repay the original amount plus 3%, which comes to €300.

On the other hand, if you deposit €10,000 at a 3% interest rate, you’ll earn €300 per year.

ECB interest rates, however, are more like “fees” that the institution charges commercial banks in the Eurozone when it lends them money. These rates act as a benchmark for the rates that banks then offer to their customers.

ECB Interest Rates: The Different Types

The ECB sets three main types of interest rates:

  • Main refinancing operations rate: This is the rate applied to banks borrowing money from Frankfurt for a period of one week.
  • Marginal lending facility rate: This applies to overnight loans—those that must be repaid by the next working day.
  • Deposit facility rate: This is the rate paid on money that banks deposit overnight with the central bank.

These are three distinct but interrelated rates, and the European Central Bank usually adjusts them simultaneously, either raising or lowering them together. You can follow this section each month to stay updated on forecasts and outcomes from the ECB’s monetary policy meetings.

Why Does the ECB Raise Interest Rates?

For the European Central Bank, interest rates are a key tool of monetary policy used to fulfil its main objective: maintaining price stability.

This stability is most commonly threatened by inflation, which drives prices up significantly. When inflation is high, the purchasing power of individuals falls—in other words, people can buy less with the same amount of money compared to periods of lower inflation.

To help restore purchasing power, the ECB resorts to raising interest rates. But how exactly are these two elements connected, and what are the consequences of such a monetary policy decision?

ECB Interest Rate Hikes: What Are the Consequences?

More Expensive Loans and Reduced Spending

One of the first consequences of a rise in interest rates is that borrowing becomes more expensive. As a result, people are encouraged to save rather than spend, and the amount of money in circulation decreases—since borrowing and investing money becomes less attractive.

Higher Returns for Savers

When the ECB raises interest rates, it becomes more expensive for banks to access funding. Consequently, it’s less favourable for customers to take out loans. Mortgages become less affordable, and it becomes harder for businesses to secure financing. However, savers benefit from higher returns on their deposits.

Currency Appreciation

Higher interest rates can attract foreign investment, strengthening the euro. This can make imports cheaper and contribute further to reducing inflation.

These are the most immediate effects of an ECB interest rate hike. However, the decision is part of a broader monetary strategy. Raising rates also helps to lower inflation expectations, which can ease pressure on wage demands—as workers are less likely to push for higher salaries. The European Central Bank also aims to avoid a wage-price spiral and protect the labour market.

Current Situation: 2025

Following a period of interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation, the ECB began cutting rates in 2025. On 17 April 2025, the Bank reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate down to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate to 2.40%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.65%.

This decision was made against a backdrop of falling inflation and sluggish economic growth, with the goal of stimulating the Eurozone economy.

Impact on Mortgages

The rate cuts have had a positive effect on mortgages:

  • Variable-rate mortgages: Monthly payments have decreased; for instance, a typical 25-year mortgage of €126,000 has seen repayments fall by around €17.
  • Fixed-rate mortgages: These have become more attractive, with rates currently ranging between 2.19% and 3.85%.

Banks are adjusting their offers in line with the ECB’s policy shift, making this a favourable time for anyone looking to take out a mortgage.

The ECB’s next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 5 June 2025, during which further rate cuts may be considered, depending on inflation trends and economic performance.

How to save money: the 52-week challenge

how to save money

How can I save money on a new phone or a trip to Spain? Here is a super method to make your wishes come true

If you’re struggling to save money and create an extra budget for yourself, you’re not alone, and we completely understand. Saving money can be exhausting, requires discipline, and often involves making sacrifices. However, there are strategies that can make this process easier. One effective method is the 52-week challenge, which enables you to save a significant amount of money without even realising it. Here, we explain how it works.

How to save money in 52 weeks: why get involved  

Saving money is essential and should be prioritised regardless of circumstances. Starting a savings challenge, like the 52-week money challenge, is beneficial because the perceived effort is minimal compared to the rewards. This challenge’s strength lies in its long-term goal of saving over a year, allowing you to build your savings without significantly disrupting your lifestyle.

Imagine walking past a music shop and seeing a beautiful Fender Stratocaster guitar that you fall in love with. You want it badly, so you go in to ask for the price: €1,149. While this is a substantial amount of money, you set your goal to have the guitar in three months. This means you would need to cut about €400 from your monthly miscellaneous expenses, leading to three months without dining out and strict spending on Friday and Saturday nights.

However, if you extended your savings plan to twelve months, you would only need to save €100 each month, a much smaller figure that has a less significant impact on your lifestyle and, as a result, lowers your perceived effort.

The 52-week challenge outlines a method for saving money without even noticing it.

Saving €1,149 over twelve months is undoubtedly easier than doing so in just three months. The 52-week method is specifically designed to prevent impulse purchases, as it allows for a longer time frame. This is crucial because, as we have discussed in this article, impulse purchases can hinder effective saving strategies. The 52-week challenge divides the savings goal into manageable portions, allowing you to think of it as a prepayment spread out over 52 convenient instalments.

The principle behind this savings method is straightforward yet effective: it involves setting aside an amount of money that corresponds to the week number you’re in. For example, during the first week (week one), you will save €1; in the second week (week two), you’ll save €2; in the third week (week three), €3; and so on, until the last week (week 52), where you will save €52. By the end of the year, you will have accumulated a total of €1,378. 

The last month can be particularly challenging, as you’ll need to save around €200. However, you can easily adapt the challenge to fit your needs. For example, you might choose to start from week 52 to tackle the most difficult savings first, double the weekly amounts to reach a total of €2,756, or even shorten the duration based on your specific savings goals. In summary, this system allows for flexibility and creativity, providing a gentle, low-impact way to develop your saving habits.

After learning to save money, make it work for you.

Congratulations! After 52 weeks, you now own a brand new Fender Stratocaster. Unbeknownst to you, this challenge has also helped you develop a valuable skill: the art of saving. Since you’ve gotten into the habit of setting aside money, consider purchasing a larger piggy bank. You can save a portion of your salary each month, not for a specific goal, but simply to build an emergency fund for any unexpected expenses.

However, it’s important to remember that saving faces a hidden threat: inflation, which gradually erodes the purchasing power of your money over time.

To protect yourself against inflation, it’s important to ensure that your money works for you, maintaining your purchasing power over time. For example, if a cup of coffee at a café cost €1 ten years ago, it now averages around €1.20. This means that purchasing power has decreased, as coffee prices have risen by 20%. In other words, inflation has reduced the value of that €1 coin by 20%. How can you beat this challenge? If you’re interested in learning more about it, Young Platform offers a wealth of content on the topic, including an article explaining how to shield yourself from inflation using Bitcoin. Remember, “If you don’t take care of the economy, the economy will take care of you.” So, don’t hesitate—subscribe below to stay informed!

How were Donald Trump’s tariffs calculated?

Les droits de douane de Trump : comment ont-ils été calculés et leur impact

Donald Trump has announced tariffs on a large number of countries. How much are they, and how have they been calculated? Spoiler: bad

Donald Trump’s announcement of duties on Tuesday sent shockwaves through various groups: politicians, citizens, companies, and especially the markets. Specific points were particularly emphasised. One notable aspect is the range of countries targeted by the US president’s decision—nearly all countries, including an island in Australia home only to penguins, except Russia, Cuba, North Korea, and Belarus.

However, the most intriguing aspect of this sovereignist, anti-globalisation decision is how the duties were calculated. This article will explore this aspect in greater detail.

A wave of global tariffs

The Trump administration’s trade offensive includes additional tariffs on nearly all goods imported into the United States, varying rates based on the country of origin. Here are some key details from the tariff plan:

  • Universal Basic Duty: A 10% tariff will be applied to all imports into the U.S.

“Worst Offenders”: Approximately 60 countries accused of unfair trade practices will face significantly higher tariffs starting April 9. These include:

  •  China: 34% tariff, added to the existing 20%, for 54%.
  •  Vietnam: 46% tariff.
  •  Thailand: 36% tariff.
  •  Japan: 24% tariff.
  •  European Union countries: 20% tariff.

The following section will discuss how misleading this classification can be.

Automobile Tariffs: A special 25% tariff will be imposed on all foreign cars and their components, significantly impacting foreign car manufacturers.

President Trump did not hold back in his trade offensive; countries from Europe to China, Japan to Brazil, are all set to “pay the price.” This list includes microstates and remote territories, ranging from the Svalbard Islands in the Arctic Circle to the uninhabited Heard and McDonald Islands, home only to penguins.

“We have been robbed for more than 50 years, but that won’t happen again,” thundered Trump, asserting that jobs and factories will return to the U.S. thanks to the tariffs. He even invited foreign companies: ‘If you want zero tariffs, come produce in America.’ In summary, this is America First version 2.0, which this time criticises virtually anyone living beyond the borders, even penguins.

How are duties calculated? The confusion between duties and VAT

As you may have noticed from the quotes, Donald Trump’s narrative has consistently centred on reciprocal tariffs. The former president has referred to his tariffs as “reciprocal tariffs,” claiming that the United States will impose duties only equivalent to the tariffs other countries have on American products. On the surface, this reasoning seems almost reasonable; however, the calculation method used by the White House is flawed.

In practice, Washington classified any existing foreign levy to justify high tariffs, confusing value-added tax (VAT) with actual duties. For instance, regarding Europe, Donald Trump claimed, “The EU is charging us 39%!” However, this figure is derived from Europe’s actual duties on some American products (less than 3%) and the VAT. This consumption tax varies from country to country. This calculation also includes any environmental or technical regulatory taxes, leading to a misleading representation of the actual tariff burden.

In simpler terms, the U.S. administration interpreted every existing tax on European products as punitive tariffs against the U.S.. It used basic mathematical operations to calculate the duties we see today. 

No serious economist would equate the Added Tax (VAT), which all consumers pay, including Europeans, with a duty specifically targeting foreign goods. However, this is how it is perceived to work in the “alternative reality” of the Trump trade war.

Reverse engineering on the trade deficit

The second part of the creative process by which the Trump administration determined the duties to impose on other countries is quite intriguing. The primary focus here is the trade deficit. Trump has consistently viewed this deficit as a scorecard: if the US imports more from one country than it exports, he interprets it as ‘losing’ and believes the other country is cheating.

For instance, it is well known that the US has a trade deficit of around $2.5 billion with Russia (importing more from Moscow than it exports). Trump frequently highlighted this fact in the past to justify implementing punitive measures.

During his narrative, the president mistakenly conflated the trade deficit with subsidies and integrated it into the formula discussed earlier. The result? The duties announced by the Trump administration are simply derived from the trade deficit divided by the respective country’s total exports to the United States.

Let’s illustrate this with a practical example by calculating the duty applied to Indonesia. The United States has a trade deficit of $17 billion with Indonesia, while Indonesian exports to the US amount to $28 billion

Calculating it: 

17 / 28 = 0.64 → 64%, precisely the figure on Donald Trump’s chart.

This aligns with ​​the government’s Reciprocal Tariff Calculations page: you take the US trade deficit in goods with a specific country, divide it by the total imports of goods from that country, and then divide the result by two. A trade deficit occurs when a country imports more physical goods from other countries than it exports to them.

The possible impact of these decisions

We have already observed the impact of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, at least on the surface. During the first day following the announcement, the US stock market plummeted approximately 8% (S&P 500), while the NASDAQ dropped about 9% since the beginning of the week. 

On the other hand, Bitcoin has held up slightly better. Although it is currently down about 7%, it remains in a favourable position compared to last week. 

From a geopolitical perspective, the situation appears even more critical. It is difficult to understand the rationale behind the decisions made by the US president. Trump seems to be aiming to dismantle globalisation, which is the process that has gradually removed barriers to free trade and facilitated economic integration between countries.

There’s an interesting paradox: for many countries, selling goods abroad at higher prices has been a means to accelerate capital accumulation and move closer economically to wealthier nations. This is how China experienced rapid growth, and Europe has also benefited somewhat from this process. However, the real winner of globalisation has been the United States. Why is that?

The U.S. gained favour with half the world by defeating the Soviet system, which failed to provide both consumption and growth. The United States initiated this process by reducing tariffs and showcasing the strength of its market economy. Free trade allowed the U.S. to emerge as a cultural, technological, and economic superpower, contributing to the decline of both the Soviet Union and Maoist China. This approach has generated significant wealth.

Contrary to what Trump might suggest, global trade does not harm the United States today. Thanks to its technological advantages, the US has focused on sectors that yield high productivity and added value. The outcome is a wealthier nation that produces fewer low-cost goods (which it imports) while buying these products at a low price, thus maintaining a very high per capita income.

This success is primarily due to American dominance in the services sector. Consider how many digital services we use daily—such as social media, search engines, streaming platforms, and software—are designed, operated, and monetised in the United States.

BTCFi: What is Defi on Bitcoin and how it works

BTCFi: qu’est-ce que la DeFi sur Bitcoin et comment ça fonctionne

Taproot has enhanced Bitcoin’s competitiveness by introducing new features like smart contracts and decentralised finance (DeFi). This gave rise to BTCFi. What is it all about?

The Taproot update in 2021 enhanced Bitcoin’s competitiveness by improving its efficiency and privacy while enabling features previously outside its protocol, such as smart contracts and decentralised finance (DeFi). Since then, significant progress has been made, leading us to the concept of BTCFi (Bitcoin + DeFi). What does this entail?

DeFi: Finance for all

DeFi, the synthesis of Decentralised finance and Finance, is a universe of financial services that aims to exclude traditional intermediaries—typical of centralised finance—and their associated costs. This is possible because DeFi is built on blockchain and works thanks to smart contracts, self-executing digital agreements written in code and registered on a blockchain. These contracts are automatically activated without intermediaries when predefined conditions occur. 

We have been discussing decentralised finance since 2015, when Ethereum launched smart contracts, which are fundamental to its functioning. This article provides everything you need to learn more about this topic.

Today, the total TVL (Total Value Locked, an indicator that measures the total value of assets deposited in a decentralised finance protocol) in DeFi is around $90 billion, and more than 50 per cent of it is locked up in Ethereum. However, something has changed in recent months.

Taproot: Let the DeFi on BTC begin!

The Taproot update is considered a significant upgrade for the Bitcoin network. It increases its efficiency and privacy and, above all, extends the capabilities of smart contracts. Two main functions, the MAST and Schnorr signatures and Tapscript, Bitcoin’s programming language update, make this possible. We have discussed this in detail here.

Taproot has enabled new possibilities for programmability and privacy within the protocol. These changes naturally also affect Bitcoin, which is gaining use cases

Bitcoin dominates the market but is little exploited in DeFi.

As is well known, BTC represents about 63% of the crypto world’s total market cap, with a value of about USD 1.6 trillion. However, due to the incompatibility between its blockchain and Ethereum, it is tricky for holders to find a secure solution to profit from the asset held. Of course, some ways, such as wrapping and bridging, allow Bitcoin to be ‘transferred’ from its native blockchain to other chains, such as Ethereum.

Wrapping and bridging: risky solutions

The main problem is the security of the transactions, as one is exposed to the risks of the entities involved in these processes: merchants, custody services, and bridges could be subject to attacks and exploits, in addition to the inherent risk of the individual platforms operating in DeFi. However, the main deterrent is only one: Usually, those who hold Bitcoin do not want to part with it for any reason, and these transactions necessarily go through custodial wallets

Hence, there is a need to implement something that meets these demands: DeFi on Bitcoin or BTCFi.

What is Bitcoin DeFi?

BTCFi is an ecosystem of decentralised applications (DApps) of a financial nature built on Bitcoin. As simple as this may seem to be a definition, it carries complex consequences, especially if one relates it to the ‘old’ ways of using BTC in DeFi. The main differences:

  • Network: In Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem, one has to use WBTC to trade, exposing oneself to the risks we saw earlier. On BTCFi, transactions are processed directly with BTC.
  • Security: Unlike wrapping BTC, which requires trusting the custodian, merchant, bridge, DeFi platforms, and underlying infrastructure, BTCFi is based on Bitcoin’s blockchain, which is unique regarding security and decentralisation.
  • Usage: While WBTC on Ethereum (or other chains) is mainly used as collateral or a medium of exchange in DEX, BTCFi potentially opens up all the use cases of traditional DeFi, as we will see below.
  • Custodianship: While wrapped, Bitcoin is held by a custodian such as BitGo, a centralised entity. BTCFi is natively non-custodial, as it is managed exclusively by decentralised protocols.

The advantages of a native DeFi on Bitcoin are apparent, and Bitcoiners seem to have understood this well. Defillama’s graphs speak for themselves: since April 2024, the TVL on the Bitcoin chain has increased from $490 million to $5 billion, equivalent to 63,000 Bitcoins. 

At the moment, the protocols that have catalysed the most BTC are Babylon, Lombard, and Solv Protocol. The first of the three dominates the ranking, with almost 4 billion (out of 5) Bitcoins on the chain. Lombard and Solv Protocol follow.

BTCFi: How to use it?

As we mentioned, Toot Bitcoin has use cases similar to traditional Bitcoin. The difference is that it is built and developed on the native blockchain without wrapping or bridging. Look at some practical use cases introduced by BTC’s native blockchain protocols.

Staking with Babylon

Babylon, for instance, allows BTC to be put on lockdown on the Bitcoin network to guarantee and actively participate in the security of other Proof-of-Stake networks. This mechanism, which has long been popular on the Ethereum mainnet, is called restaking. In this case, it uses the computing power dedicated to mining BTC by indirectly transferring it onto proof-of-stake networks. All this happens without the user being aware of it, since it is as if he receives rewards by staking his BTC, while on the opposite side, Proof-of-Stake blockchains can exploit locked Bitcoins to improve their systemic security. 

Liquid staking with Lombard and LBTC

Lombard also offers a similar service with an extra feature: liquid staking. Once one’s BTC is locked up, one can mine LBTC, an asset collateralised 1:1 with Bitcoin, to generate additional income. Due to its cross-chain nature, it is possible to use LBTC ‘around’ DeFi, as collateral for lending and borrowing, or even to provide liquidity to DEX. In short, LBTC is the equivalent of stETH for BTCFi.

Solv Protocol: towards unified liquidity

Finally, Solv Protocol, which offers restaking services, issues a version of BTC called SolvBTC. This represents an interesting attempt at BTC wrapping because it aims to solve the problem of Bitcoin’s fragmented liquidity: the various wrapped versions of BTC – WBTC, BTCB, BTC.b, etc. – are chain-specific and have little cross-chain interoperability, resulting in de facto ‘siloed’ Bitcoin. – The various wrapped versions of BTC – WBTC, BTCB, BTC.b, etc. – are chain-specific and have little cross-chain interoperability, being in fact ‘siloed. ‘ 

SolvBTC aims to unify Bitcoin’s liquidity across multiple chains as a universal BTC pool for DeFi’s users. This will allow for more agile asset use across different protocols. 

Advanced liquid staking: SolvBTC.LSTs

In addition, Solv Protocol, like Lombard, also has liquid staking functionality since you get SolvBTC by blocking SolvBTC.LSTs (SolvBTC Liquid Staking Tokens) in return. These, in turn, are divided into Pegged LSTs, which are pegged 1:1 to the value of Bitcoin, and Yield-Bearing LSTs, which grow in value over time because the revenue gained from the stake is automatically reinvested in the token.

We are only at the beginning of BTCFi

As you may have guessed, this is a newly developing world with infinite return opportunities: using your Bitcoins in DeFi while maintaining custody, without necessarily having to use WBTC, was a long-overdue possibility. If you want to be part of the change affecting BTC and DeFi on BTC, click below!

Are Bit Bonds, US government bonds with underlying Bitcoin, on the way?

Obligations sur Bitcoin: les Bit Bonds sont-ils en approche?

The Bitcoin Policy Institute has proposed Bitcoin bonds, an innovative financial instrument that guarantees good returns without risk. Learn more about it.

Bonds based on Bitcoin may soon become a reality. The Trump administration’s favourable stance towards cryptocurrency is evident and has been demonstrated at various times, particularly with the approval of government reserves in Bitcoin.

Recently, however, discussions have emerged regarding an innovative financial development: a new method for integrating Bitcoin into the global financial system. Could BTC potentially serve as one of the pillars supporting U.S. debt through “Bit Bonds”? How do these instruments work?

US debt rises and worries.

The proposal to introduce Bitcoin-backed bonds has emerged in response to the growing US public debt, which has steadily increased relative to the GDP since the pandemic began. Naturally, when a problem becomes acute, the search for solutions accelerates. In this case, that could lead to the launch of Bitcoin-backed bonds.

Bitcoin does not fully collateralise these bonds; ​​they are financial instruments that include a strategic allocation to cryptocurrencies. The fundamental concept is quite ambitious, so we find it appealing. The idea is to enhance virtually risk-free financial instruments with a digital commodity, creating a net benefit for both governments and investors.

Buy BTC!

How Bit Bonds Work

Bit Bonds function similarly to traditional US government bonds. They are essentially Treasuries—debt securities issued by states to raise funds at a lower interest rate (coupon rate) than the market average. The yield on these financial instruments is lower not because they are inefficient but because a market segment that accommodates Bitcoin must be created.

The interest—or yield—is lower because part of the money raised through these bonds is invested in Bitcoin. As Bitcoin’s value increases, it could positively impact the bonds’ interest.

As you can see, the theoretical framework for how Bit Bonds work is straightforward and advantageous for both parties involved: the state and the investors. Since the rate associated with these bonds is lower, the state saves billions of dollars in interest payments on debt. At the same time, investors gain indirect exposure to Bitcoin (BTC), an asset historically appreciated over the long term.

Why are they not risky financial instruments?

The most interesting thing about Bitcoin bonds is that they are not risky. Rather, they have the same degree of risk as government bonds. How is this possible? The price of Bitcoin does not always rise, so there must be some risk associated with it.

False! Every time a new Bit Bond is issued, a small part of the capital raised is used to buy Bitcoin, which is then locked in a separate pool. At the bond’s maturity, you receive back all the initial capital (principal), just like when you buy a normal bond. In addition, if the price of BTC has increased, you will receive an extra payment proportional to the increase

This means that your investment is unpacked in two: a fixed tranche (typical of government bonds) and a variable tranche that follows the price trend of Bitcoin. Similar instruments such as TIPS (inflation-linked bonds) or gold-linked ones exist. 

However, as historical data shows, Bit Bonds incorporate higher volatility and a much higher expected return. The reason? The price of Bitcoin has always experienced soaring bullish movements in every market cycle, whereas the fluctuations that gold or inflation are subject to are much smaller.

This makes Bit Bonds more attractive for the state, which can afford lower interest rates, and for the investor, who can obtain a return similar to that guaranteed on average by the stock market (around 10 per cent) and a minimum degree of risk.

Buy BTC!

How much could the US save thanks to ‘Bit Bonds’?

According to some estimates, refinancing $2 trillion of debt with Bit Bonds at 2% instead of 5% would save the US government about $700 billion over 10 years. These savings could lower some debt, finance public programmes, or make infrastructure investments without raising taxes.

The key concept behind Bit Bonds is familiar to anyone interested in the investment world: the asymmetry between risk and return:

  • In the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin does not go up, but the government still pays less interest.
  • In the best case, Bitcoin will rise, and the state will collect extra income to repay the debt.

This structure is not very different from many structured products already used in traditional finance, in which a low-risk asset is combined with a more volatile one to create a profile with a more favourable risk-return balance.

Moreover, pension fund issuers, insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds are often reluctant to invest directly in cryptos. But if rating agencies were to classify Bit Bonds as ‘quasi-risk-free’ (because the state guarantees the principal), these instruments could enter institutional portfolios.

In short, for the retail investor, Bit Bonds could be the perfect gateway into the crypto world. They don’t require wallet setup or the vagaries of custody. They’re just like government bonds but with an edge.

In an era of trillion-dollar deficits and a total lack of fiscal discipline, Bit Bonds offer an innovative solution: harnessing the growth of Bitcoin to ease the burden of interest and lower (at least some of) the national debt. 

One thing is sure: if even part of this idea becomes a reality, we could be at a turning point. In a few years, we might say, “This is when everything changed.”

Casino: The house always wins; investing your money instead of gambling is better.

casino

It is often said that “the house always wins.” The house does not always win but it wins more often than the players. What are the odds of winning at the casino, and why is it better to invest?

What is the expected value of playing casino games, and how is this concept measured in investments? Besides the inherent probabilistic laws that govern them, what commonalities exist between these two activities?

The house always often wins.

Interestingly, both casino games—colorful and vibrant—and what some might consider the duller financial assets can be statistically analysed and compared. Each has an expected value, but how is this calculated, and for which asset is it higher?

It’s often said that “the house always wins.” This popular saying underscores the undeniable advantage of gambling establishments (or the state) and effectively illustrates the underlying reality.

The fundamental statistical concept related to this is expected value. This concept is also prevalent in the investment world, where it is referred to as expected return. It is an essential tool for investors seeking to evaluate the potential outcomes of their decisions.

What is the expected value?

Before we delve into the formal definition, let’s consider a practical example to understand the concept better. Imagine we’re in a casino playing Craps, a game in which players bet on the outcome of a roll of six-sided dice. What is the probability of rolling a two?

The answer to this question is ⅙, as there are six faces on a die, and the probability of rolling each number is the same. To find the expected value, we sum the possible outcomes (the numbers on the die) and multiply each by the probability of that outcome occurring, which, as we mentioned, is ⅙.

Here is the calculation to be performed: 

(1*⅙) + (2*⅙) + (3*⅙) + (4*⅙) + (5*⅙) + (6*⅙) = 3.5

The next time you see a die rolled in a casino, you’ll understand that the expected value is 3.5. This means that if you roll a six-sided die many times, the average result will be 3.5. Now, let’s focus on a more formal definition.

“In probability theory, the expected value (also called mean or mathematical expectation) of a random variableX is a number denoted byE(X) formalises the heuristic idea of mean value of a random phenomenon.”

In summary, the expected value of an event is calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by the probability of its occurrence and then adding those products. In simpler terms, it can be understood as the weighted average of all possible outcomes. This definition will be helpful when discussing investments.

The house always wins: why it is not worth playing at the casino

Let’s teleport to a casino. Now that we understand expected value, everything shines a new light on the situation: this value is always negative for players but always positive for the house.

If this point went unnoticed, you may have missed an important detail: We have just scrutinised an industry that generated EUR 131 billion in revenue in Europe alone in 2023.

The explanation is straightforward. Gambling games are structured to give the casino an advantage, known as the house edge. This house edge ensures the casino’s business model remains viable; if the expected value were positive for players, running a casino would mean giving money away to customers over time.

However, not all games are the same. Some, like roulette, have only a slightly negative expected value, while others, such as SuperEnalotto, have such unfavorable odds that winning big is virtually impossible. Let’s look at the expected value of the most popular casino games.

A practical example: the expected value of Roulette

One of the most generous casino games for players is European roulette, which features a single zero. To illustrate this, let’s calculate the odds of a simple bet, such as on red or black, even or odd, or the ranges 1-18 or 19-36. In European roulette, there are 37 possible numbers: 18 red, 18 black, and 1 green zero.

For example, when betting on red:

  • Since there are 18 red numbers, the probability of winning is 18 out of 37 (approximately 48.65%).
  • The probability of losing is 19 out of 37 (approximately 51.35%) because, in addition to the 18 black numbers, there is also the zero, which causes red bets to lose.

The payout for a winning bet on red is 1:1. If you place a bet of 1€, you will receive a total of 2€ if you win, which includes a net profit of 1€. Conversely, if you lose, you forfeit the entire amount wagered.

Therefore, the total expected value will result from the difference between the expected value of the probability of victory (18/37) and defeat (19/37), resulting in a loss of 0.027€ per euro wagered. To simplify matters, we have not given the formula, but you can check it by calculating this difference after applying the same procedure as we did for the dice.

The Expected Value in Financial Investments

Now that you’re familiar with the concept of expected value in casino games, it’s time to discuss investments. Similar probabilistic principles estimate the future performance of financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, indices, and even cryptocurrencies.

First, it’s important to note that changing the reference system alters the approach to probability. We cannot analyse the financial world in a purely objective probabilistic manner, as it does not consist of perfectly symmetrical and well-constructed events (like a coin toss). In this context, probabilities are modeled based on historical data.

The expected value of investments, also known as the expected return, is the weighted average of the possible returns on an investment, factoring in the probability of each potential outcome. This definition closely resembles the one used in the context of casino games.

This article will explore the concept of expected value in finance using one of the longest-running stock indices: the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is one of the most significant stock indices globally, tracking the performance of the 500 most prominent and capitalised companies in the United States. With a historical data record spanning nearly a century, it is a reliable tool for estimating long-term stock returns. Historically, the S&P 500 has provided a positive average annual return.

The expected one is currently about +10%, considering historical data from 1928 to today, including reinvested dividends, over long periods. It would be interesting to do the same with Bitcoin, but unfortunately, fifteen years of history is minimal to evaluate a financial phenomenon from a statistical point of view. To date, the expected return would be 85%, analysing its performance from 2011 to the present.

Buy Bitcoin!

Why investing is not like gambling: conclusions

While both investing and gambling involve risking capital to make a profit, the key difference lies in the nature and sign of the expected value.

In gambling, the expected value is negative for the player. The system is effectively closed and operates as a negative-sum game: the house always keeps a portion of the bets as its margin. No matter how long a person plays or their betting strategies, the expected value remains unchanged. Systems like the Martingale can alter the short-term distribution of winnings but do not affect the predicted value in the long run.

In the long run, players tend to lose, on average, a percentage that reflects the house’s advantage. The saying “the house always wins” is not just a cliché; it is a mathematically proven reality due to the structure of casino games.

In contrast, financial investments, particularly in the stock market, typically offer investors a positive expected value. This is because the economy continuously generates new wealth: Companies grow, produce profits, and innovate, contributing to a long-term increase in value. Investors can participate in overall economic growth by investing in a diversified market index.

While there is always the risk of choosing the wrong investment or facing short-term downturns, these risks can be managed through diversification, setting long-term goals, and maintaining discipline. This level of strategic planning is impossible in gambling, where each bet is independent and inherently disadvantageous.

Volatility and expected value: the relationship

The final point to consider when comparing casino games with the world of investments is volatility, particularly in contrast to the certainty of incurring losses. In casino games, including scratch cards and Superenalotto, the long-term outcome is predictable—players can expect to lose a fixed percentage of their total wagers. As wagering increases, the volatility typically decreases relative to the volume played.

In investments, however, volatility does not diminish over more extended periods. It can lead to more significant uncertainty regarding outcomes in the medium term. Nevertheless, the likelihood of achieving a positive return increases over time because the expected value of investments is positive.

Holding a stock for just one day is akin to flipping a coin—it usually results in a 50% chance of a positive day and a 50% chance of a negative one. However, if you hold a stock for a year, there’s a good chance of achieving a positive return, although it’s not guaranteed. On the other hand, holding stocks for 10 or 20 years has historically always ensured a significant return.

In contrast, if you play roulette repeatedly for 10 or 20 years, you will likely have a negative net result that approaches the theoretical expected value unless you experience extraordinary and unrepeatable events.

In conclusion, wise investing is statistically successful over the long term, while gambling is guaranteed to lead to losses. Investment creates wealth within the economic system, whereas gambling merely redistributes value and often diminishes it, with a portion of the losses going to the banks. It’s important to note that investing involves risks; however, investors are rewarded with a premium for the risks they take. In contrast, gambling typically results in further disadvantages without any expected rewards.