Cognitive Bias in Finance: A Guide to Conscious Investing

Cognitive Bias in Finance: Invest More Consciously

Cognitive biases have a greater impact on your investment decisions than you realise. Explore the most prevalent ones in finance and practical strategies for recognising, managing, and overcoming them.

Cognitive biases are mental distortions that affect our thinking and decision-making, often clashing with the fundamentals of traditional economic theory. Because of these systematic biases, we, as investors in the financial world, are far from being the ‘rational actors’ that classical economists envisioned.

For a long time, the significance of cognitive biases has been overlooked. People tended to view individuals as robots, acting solely based on a balance of risk versus return and costs versus benefits. However, reality—and particularly the data, which rarely lies—presents a very different picture. 

What exactly are cognitive biases? How does behavioural finance define them? And, most importantly, how frequently do we fall victim to them?

Cognitive bias:  The origin of the term

Do you think you’re a good driver? Maybe you believe you’re better than the “average Italian driver.” If so, you’re not alone; most drivers share the same conviction. This phenomenon itself is paradoxical. The reason behind it? The overconfidence bias. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves; we’ll discuss that shortly.

To explore the intriguing world of cognitive bias in finance, we first need to understand what “bias” means. It’s an English term derived from the Greek word “epikársios,” which means “slanted” or “skewed.” Initially related to the game of bowls, it described a slightly off-target shot. You probably never heard your grandfather shout “Bias!” at the bowling alley, and there’s a reason for that: since the 1500s, the term has taken on a broader meaning. Today, we often refer to it as a “predisposition to bias” or, more specifically, in our context, a “systematic distortion of judgment.” In short, it refers to the tendency to see things a bit… askew.

What are Cognitive Biases?

The term “cognitive bias” has its origins in etymology, which we have briefly touched upon. It is essential to note that this concept has a strong foundation in psychology, mainly due to the pioneering research of two prominent figures: Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. These Nobel laureates began exploring this complex topic in the 1970s.

So, what does “cognitive bias” actually mean? One could consider it synonymous with mental automatism or shortcuts, though these terms often carry a negative connotation. Our brains, to conserve energy, tend to take shortcuts instead of processing information straightforwardly. Unfortunately, these shortcuts can sometimes lead us astray. Cognitive biases can influence the beliefs we hold, the decisions we make, and even our habits. In summary, cognitive biases are serious matters; they can significantly alter our thinking processes, especially if we fail to recognise and address them. The key to managing these biases is to acknowledge their existence and thoroughly understand them.

Heuristics, sometimes dangerous mental deterrents

We are discussing cognitive biases related to finance, but money and investments often lack concrete evidence, don’t they? Don’t worry; we’re getting there. First, we need to clarify one last fundamental concept: heuristics, a term you will frequently hear in connection with bias.

In simple terms, heuristics are mental shortcuts that help us make quick decisions. The word originates from the Greek “heurískein, “meaning “to discover” or “to find.” These quick mental processes allow us to reach conclusions swiftly, enabling us to make decisions on the fly. Isn’t that fascinating? When an idea suddenly “pops into your head” without the need for extensive thought or complicated reasoning, that’s heuristics at work!

This phenomenon, often referred to as ‘magic’, occurs in our brains through a process known as attribute substitution. This process usually happens without our awareness. Our brain replaces complex concepts with simpler ones, allowing us to reach quick conclusions with minimal cognitive effort.

This intriguing mechanism can lead to cognitive biases. However, it is essential to recognise that not all heuristics are detrimental; some are known as ‘effective heuristics’. These are shortcuts that can be beneficial and make our lives easier. The real issue arises when we rely too heavily on ‘lazy’ or flawed heuristics, which can lead to problems, especially in finance.

Cognitive bias in the world of finance: When shortcuts become traps

Have you ever made a trade and felt like the Warren Buffett of your region, almost invincible? Or, conversely, have you recorded a loss and, instead of taking a moment to reflect, decided to increase your investment to try to “recover quickly”? If you’ve nodded in agreement at least once, welcome to the club—you’ve had your encounter with cognitive bias.

Don’t feel alone or wrong; this is entirely normal. Research shows that irrational thinking patterns are pervasive and significantly influence the decisions of many individuals when faced with uncertainty, such as in financial markets. Kahneman, in his book “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” explains that these “systematic errors” are an integral part of our thought processes.

It is essential to closely examine the most prevalent biases that impact the investment world. The goal is to recognise these biases so we can work to mitigate their impact. While eliminating them may be nearly impossible, we can aim to manage and reduce their influence.

Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias refers to the tendency to seek out, interpret, favour, and remember information that supports our pre-existing beliefs or values, essentially acting as a form of selective blindness. 

For example, suppose you invest in shares of ‘Company X’ or a trending cryptocurrency. In that case, you may actively search for positive news about that asset on forums or social media, while ignoring or downplaying any negative information. You might think, “Oh, that famous analyst says it will go up? That’s fantastic! The other analyst believes it’s a bubble. He doesn’t know what he’s talking about!”

A study conducted by Park in 2010 and published in the Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience utilised functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to demonstrate that when confirmation bias is at work, areas of the brain associated with reward become activated. In simple terms, our brains release dopamine when we encounter information that aligns with our beliefs, even if those beliefs are incorrect.

Overconfidence bias

It is a very human tendency to overestimate one’s abilities, knowledge, and the accuracy of one’s predictions. Consider entrepreneurs who underestimate the challenges of starting a business or employees who are convinced they can meet unreasonably tight deadlines. While optimism can be a powerful motivator, it becomes problematic when confidence turns into arrogance. This overconfidence can lead to hasty decisions, disregard for genuine risks, and ultimately disappointing outcomes.

Research by Barber and Odean (2001), titled “Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment,” highlights that this cognitive bias occurs more frequently among male investors. Males tend to overestimate their capabilities, which often results in more frequent trading and lower net returns compared to their female counterparts.

Anchorage bias

Anchoring refers to our tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information we receive about a topic, even if that information is not particularly relevant or accurate. This initial piece of information acts as a mental ‘anchor’ that affects all subsequent judgments. For instance, when we are tasked with making a numerical estimate, we are often influenced by a number we have encountered before, regardless of its relevance to the current situation.

A study by Hersh Shefrin in 2000, which is detailed in his book ‘Beyond Greed and Fear’—a classic in the field of behavioural finance—demonstrates how investors tend to ‘anchor’ themselves to historical price levels. This could be the price at which they purchased a stock or its historical high. These ‘anchors’ can significantly influence their expectations and future decision-making.

Bias of the Present

You may fall victim to this cognitive bias, which can lead to adverse outcomes, when you overvalue immediate benefits at the expense of future gains, even though the latter could be significantly greater. This reflects the mindset of “everything and now.” 

A 2008 study on retirement savings by Laibson, Repetto, and Tobacman demonstrates how this bias can contribute to chronic procrastination in long-term savings decisions. The common thought of “I’ll start my savings plan next month” often shifts to “next year,” and, eventually, “when the kids are grown up.”

This bias is effectively illustrated by economic models such as the “beta-delta” model, which simply shows that people do not discount time uniformly. We tend to give much more weight to rewards we can obtain immediately than to those that will come in the future, even when the wait is minimal. It’s as if our “future self” is a stranger to whom we are reluctant to show kindness.

Representativeness Bias

Tversky and Kahneman extensively addressed this heuristic in their seminal 1974 article, “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” This heuristic is based on our tendency to evaluate the likelihood of an event or its association with a category by comparing it to a well-established prototype or stereotype in our minds. Unfortunately, this often leads us to ignore what is known as ‘base probability’—the actual frequency of that event in reality.

A classic example in finance is when investors choose to invest in a company merely because it belongs to a ‘hot’ sector, such as artificial intelligence today or renewable energy yesterday. They might also invest simply because the company’s name resembles that of a successful enterprise or because its founder has a likeness to Steve Jobs. In these cases, people focus on superficial similarities while neglecting essential fundamental analysis.

Consider roulette: if red appears five times in a row, many people would choose to bet on black, thinking it must come up next. This belief stems from the idea that the sequence R-R-R-R does not fit our perception of randomness. However, it’s important to remember that the roulette ball has no memory, and the probability remains the same with each spin.

Framing Effect

Even when not influenced by bias, we must acknowledge the framing effect. This psychological phenomenon illustrates how our decisions can change significantly based on how information is presented, or “framed.” Although the underlying facts may be the same, our perception—and ultimately our choice—can vary significantly depending on the way they are framed.

As Kahneman and Tversky have taught us, how a choice is formulated in terms of potential gains or losses can make a considerable difference. For instance, stating that a medical treatment has a “90% chance of success” feels much more reassuring than saying it has a “10% chance of failure,” even though both statements convey the same information.

Similarly, when we say that an active investment fund generated a 4% return while the reference market yielded only 2%, it can be framed as a success. However, if the annual management fees are 3.5% and inflation is 3%, the actual return is negative.

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How to unhinge cognitive bias

Now that we’ve become familiar with this cheerful little collection of mental traps, you might be asking yourself, “Am I destined to make poor financial decisions for the rest of my life?” The answer is a resounding NO! Understanding the problem is the first essential step toward overcoming it. Here are some practical tips—no magic formulas, just genuinely helpful advice:

  1. Give yourself clear rules and follow them:
  • Set clear financial goals: what do you want from your investments? A quiet retirement? Buying a house? Having defined goals and a defined time horizon helps you keep a straight tiller when the seas get rough;
  • Create a written investment plan: do not navigate by sight. Decide on your risk profile first, how to diversify your portfolio, and set clear rules for buying, selling and rebalancing. Write it down in black and white! And, above all, stick to the plan, even when instinct (or a damn bias!) screams at you to do the exact opposite.
  • Automate as much as possible: accumulation plans are a blessing. Regular, automatic deposits and purchases save you the agony of deciding ‘when is the right time to enter’ (spoiler: nobody knows for sure) and protect you from impulsive decisions dictated by the emotionality of the moment.
  1. Scepticism, in finance, is a virtue:
  • Actively seek divergent opinions: Are you overwhelmingly convinced you want to invest in a specific crypto, e.g. SOL? Perfect. Now go and look up all the reasons why it might be a bad idea. Read analyses from those who think differently and compare your thoughts.
  • Draw up a ‘pre-mortem’: before making a significant financial decision, imagine for a moment that it went wrong, a complete disaster. What could have been the causes? This mental exercise can help you identify risks and flaws in your reasoning that you might otherwise overlook.
  1. Keep an investment diary:
  • Write down why you made a specific investment decision, what you expected at the time, and how you felt (euphoric? worried?). Rereading the diary after a while is a powerful way to recognise your ‘favourite’ behavioural patterns and biases, the ones you fall into most often.
  1. Think long term:
  • The financial and cryptocurrency markets are generally considered risky and volatile in the short term. If you stand there every day checking the charts and getting anxious about every little change, the bias will have an easy time. Take a deep breath, remember your long-term goals and don’t get overwhelmed by the panic or euphoria of the moment. As Warren Buffett says, “The stock market is a mechanism for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” 

Cognitive bias in finance: Frequently asked questions

After all this immersion in the somewhat convoluted world of bias, it is normal to have a few doubts or curiosities. Let’s try to anticipate a few, see if we get it right:

  • Is it possible to eliminate cognitive bias? 

The honest answer is that cognitive biases likely cannot be eliminated. They are a fundamental part of being human, much like our shadows or our regional accents. Instead of trying to eradicate these biases—an unrealistic goal akin to never feeling hungry—the more realistic approach is to recognise and understand them. By developing strategies to manage and mitigate their effects, we can work toward a better understanding of ourselves. This is an ongoing process, much like constant mental maintenance..

  • How important is the psychological factor in finance?

It’s crucial to remember that knowledge alone isn’t enough. You might have read every finance book available, but when it comes time to click ‘buy’ or ‘sell’, letting emotions and biases influence your decisions can jeopardise all your analytical insights. Many experts and successful investors argue that a significant portion of successful investing—possibly as much as 50% or more—depends on managing one’s psychology. Therefore, analysis and psychology must work together in a seamless manner.

  • Are there biases that are more ‘dangerous’ than others for beginning investors?

For beginners in the market, certain biases can be particularly dangerous. For instance, overconfidence following initial gains can create a false sense of security, leading to unnecessary risks. Additionally, confirmation bias is often prevalent among individuals with limited trading experience.

  • How can I identify the biases I am more susceptible to?

The most effective approach to self-improvement is through honest and consistent self-observation. One helpful technique is to maintain a diary of your investment decisions. In this diary, record not only what you buy or sell but also the reasons behind your choices and how you felt at the time (were you euphoric, worried, or feeling pressured?). Over time, when you reread your entries, you may notice recurring patterns in your behaviour. For example, did you make impulsive decisions during a market crash? Did you hold onto a stock ‘out of principle’ even as its value continued to decline?

  • Are financial professionals (traders, fund managers) immune?

Not! Cognitive biases are universal; they affect everyone because they are rooted in the way the human brain processes information and makes decisions. It is often overconfidence that can mislead those who consider themselves exceptionally knowledgeable. The key difference is that a good professional should be trained to recognise these biases and develop strategies to mitigate their impact. However, nobody is perfect—not even those who work on Wall Street!

We have reached the end of our journey to explore cognitive biases in the realm of finance. If you have made it this far, you have already taken a significant and crucial step: you have become aware that these “mental biases,” or “deceptive shortcuts,” truly exist. They impact you, just as they affect every single person on this planet.

Biases are not just a product of psychologists trying to sell more books; they are fundamental mechanisms that are deeply ingrained in our way of thinking, stemming from our evolutionary history. These biases serve as shortcuts that our brains, which prefer efficiency over effort, use to navigate an incredibly complex world filled with vast amounts of information. Sometimes, these shortcuts help us reach our goals quickly and safely. However, other times—especially when it comes to our hard-earned savings and the unpredictable nature of financial markets—these biases can lead us to make significant mistakes.

The good news is that we are not bound to be mere puppets of our biases! Awareness is our most powerful tool. By understanding how these mechanisms work, recognising the warning signs in our behaviour and thoughts, and adopting effective strategies to ‘defuse’ them or at least reduce their impact, we can make a significant difference in our lives.

The next time you hear that little voice inside urging you to make an impulsive financial decision, —making you think, “What the heck, I’m going to jump!”—pause for a moment. Take a deep breath and ask yourself, “Am I being influenced by some cognitive bias that might lead me astray?”

What Labubu are and why they are viral

Labubu: Why These Plush Toys Are Going Viral

Labubu: The Viral Soft Toys Loved by the Stars. Is the “Lipstick Effect” at Play?

Have you ever noticed how specific trends suddenly go viral on social media? Well, “Labubu” is the latest sensation capturing everyone’s attention. These furry little creatures have quickly become fixtures on the bags of the world’s most celebrities, dominating TikTok and creating a buzz at major fashion week events.

But what exactly are Labubu? How did they rise from being simple keychains to coveted status symbols? And, most importantly, how does this phenomenon relate to the economic theory known as the “lipstick effect”?

The history of the Labubu

To fully understand what Labubu is, we should start with their origin as plush puppets initially created as cute key rings. These key rings can be attached to backpacks, bags, or anywhere you want to add a touch of extravagance. A notable episode in Italy illustrates the popularity of this phenomenon. Picture this: in Milan, on Corso Buenos Aires – one of the prime shopping destinations – a queue stretching a kilometre long formed at dawn in front of the Pop Mart store, a Chinese giant in the collectable toy industry. This long line was reminiscent of hype surrounding an iPhone launch or a rock star concert. The reason for such excitement? The arrival of the latest and highly anticipated Labubu collection. This event even piqued the interest of those who had never heard of these furry little monsters before.

Who is responsible for the creation of these now-viral objects of desire? The father of the Labubu is Kasing Lung, an artist originally from Hong Kong. These puppets are not solitary beings; they belong to a much larger universe filled with a variety of little monsters, collectively known as “The Monsters.” 

Artistically speaking, what makes the Labubu particularly fascinating is its ability to blend two styles that might initially seem contradictory. On one hand, there are the oriental influences stemming from the artist’s heritage, and on the other, the imagery drawn from Nordic European fairy tales. Kasing Lung is intimately familiar with this latter world, having spent part of his childhood in Belgium.

Interestingly, the Labubu is not a recent creation; the first models were introduced in 2015. However, it wasn’t until 2019 that Pop Mart recognised their potential, acquiring the rights and preparing them for a leap to global fame.

But why does everyone go crazy over a Labubu?

Labubu’s rise to popularity has been notable for some time, but the real surge—what can be described as a tsunami—has a specific epicentre: the social media profile of Lisa Manoban, the charismatic rapper and singer of Blackpink, the most famous and influential K-Pop girl group in the world. Lisa, who also starred in the acclaimed latest season of *The White Lotus*, has played a pivotal role in this phenomenon. 

Towards the end of 2024, she began sharing her passion for small animals with her millions of followers, regularly showcasing them as fashionable accessories at glamorous events, often attached to her designer bags. The effect was profound: an unstoppable media wave, one that only social networks, with their viral power, can generate and amplify.

From that point onward, a collective frenzy ensued. Other international divas, such as Dua Lipa, Kim Kardashian, Selena Gomez, and Rihanna, began sporting these unique accessories, attaching them to their fashionable bags. The result? An unprecedented Labubu hunt, leading to a staggering increase in the prices of the rarest specimens and limited editions. These items have now become authentic collectors’ pieces and lucrative investments.

Does the Labubu phenomenon mean recession?

Now, let’s delve into the less glamorous yet more intriguing aspect of this phenomenon: its potential connection to the current period of economic uncertainty, or even outright recession. This seemingly strange link can be explained by an economic concept known as the “lipstick effect.” Don’t worry; you don’t need an economics degree to grasp it! In short, this theory outlines a tendency that has been observed throughout history: during times of economic crisis, consumers tend to prefer purchasing cheaper and more accessible luxury goods. When finances are tight and larger purchases, such as a new car or a house, feel out of reach, we often seek small comforts—little luxuries that provide a sense of satisfaction without significantly impacting our budgets.

The concept of lipstick as an economic indicator, known as the “lipstick effect,” originated from observations made by Leonard Lauder, the son of Estée Lauder and chairman emeritus of the Estée Lauder Companies. This idea gained popularity during the recession that followed the September 11, 2001, attacks and the beginning of the war in Afghanistan. Lauder noticed an interesting trend: while many sectors of the economy struggled and demand for luxury goods declined, sales of cosmetics—especially lipsticks—remained steady and even increased. It’s intriguing, isn’t it? After all, lipstick is not a basic necessity.

The idea that small luxuries can play a significant role during difficult times isn’t entirely new. For instance, it is said that Winston Churchill, during the Second World War, chose to exclude cosmetics from rationing. He reasoned that these products were essential for maintaining the morale of the population, particularly women, during a time marked by immense sacrifices and concerns. Allowing for a small act of normalcy and self-care helped people cope in a world turned upside down.

Why do lipsticks, and by extension, other small pleasures like Labubu today, become “crisis-proof” goods? The answer lies in the psychological gratification that comes from purchasing something that satisfies a small desire or vanity, especially when we have to give up so much else. During times of crisis, when morale is often low and worries about financial security are prevalent, buying a product that appeals to the aesthetic sphere or personal pleasure can significantly boost one’s mood. 

A branded lipstick, a fragrance, or a cute accessory like a Labubu, while not strictly necessary, serve as affordable luxuries that provide a sense of pampering and help one feel more at ease. Sometimes, people forgo their usual inexpensive options to indulge in a slightly more expensive and desirable version of these small luxuries. This behaviour is known as compensatory consumption: I may not be able to afford a thousand-euro designer bag, but I can attach a collector’s Labubu to my existing bag, which yields a similar, albeit lesser, dopamine rush.

Social dynamics also play an essential role in this phenomenon. Maintaining a certain aesthetic standard or possessing trendy items can help preserve self-esteem and foster a sense of belonging.

The effects of consumer behaviour observed in previous years are still evident today. Market data from 2022- 2023, analysed by companies like Circana, reveals that sales of beauty products have continued to grow, including a notable increase in luxury cosmetics, despite a challenging global economic environment.

To understand the connection between these cute (and often pricey for collectors!) Labubu puppets and the economy make it clearer that they may represent a ‘lipstick effect’ 2.0. This phenomenon suggests that, similar to the past with lipsticks, people are seeking small joys and affordable status symbols as a way to momentarily escape the complexities and uncertainties of the world around them.

Pectra: Ethereum’s next big update explained simply

Ethereum Pectra update: How does it work?

The Ethereum Pectra update is set to arrive on May 7. This article explains what it is, how it works, and the improvements it introduces.

The Ethereum Pectra update is set to be activated on the Ethereum blockchain. Currently undergoing testing, this update has clear objectives: to enhance the network’s speed, scalability, and user-friendliness.

With the Pectra update, users will no longer be required to pay gas fees solely in ETH. Additionally, it aims to improve the execution of smart contracts. In the long term, innovations such as Verkle trees and Peer DAS are expected to make the entire network more affordable, powerful, and capable of accommodating millions of additional users.

Pectra may not be as well-known as The Merge, but has the same revolutionary potential. It is a hard fork, representing a significant structural change that will create a clear division between the ‘before’ and ‘after’ of the Ethereum blockchain. The name Pectra comes from combining two distinct updates: Prague, which affects the execution layer and Electra, which impacts the consensus layer. For example, in 2024, with Dencun (from Deneb + Cancun), Pectra merges two components into one evolutionary upgrade.

How does Pectra work?

To truly understand what Pectra is and how it works, we must focus on practical aspects that are more effective for successfully mastering technology.

1. Account Abstraction

The Ethereum Pectra update’s first focus is account abstraction, a key concept that has gained significant attention in the on-chain world over the past two years. Account abstraction refers to a technology introduced through the technical proposal EIP-4337 on the Ethereum blockchain. It merges the functionalities of traditional accounts with smart contracts, resulting in the creation of smart wallets.

This innovation simplifies the user experience by eliminating the need for a seed phrase, automating transactions, and reducing gas fees. Account abstraction is the technology that will make decentralised applications (dapps) as seamless as traditional applications.

This change will also impact the current status quo, where users must hold at least a small amount of Ether (ETH) in their wallets to cover gas fees—transaction costs incurred whenever a transfer is made or when interacting with a dapp.

2. More efficient smart contracts

The second focal point of the Pectra update is the efficiency of Ethereum smart contracts, particularly concerning their execution. One planned improvement is the introduction of proposal EIP-7692, which consolidates several other technical proposals. 

To summarise, this proposal alters how smart contracts are compiled from a coding perspective and managed overall. For example, contracts will be divided into sections with clear headers, making code analysis, maintenance, and security easier. New commands will be introduced to jump between sections, manipulate the stack, and read data more efficiently. 

Additionally, code validation will occur only once during deployment rather than at each execution, which will help reduce costs and errors. These changes will occur at the bytecode level instead of in a high-level language like Solidity. In practice, the EVM Object Format (EOF) will change how Solidity code is compiled and executed within the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).

3. More flexible validators

Let’s focus on the consensus front, where the Ethereum Pectra update will significantly improve the Ethereum network. Currently, a validator must stake a minimum of 32 ETH ETH to receive rewards. However, any amount staked above 32 ETH does not generate additional rewards; it remains idle and unused. The Pectra update will modify this system by introducing flexible staking (EIP-7002) and increasing the maximum staking limit per validator from 32 to 2048 ETH (EIP-7251). These changes will enhance the system’s flexibility and efficiency, particularly for entities managing large amounts of ETH, such as companies or institutional traders.

Another essential feature of the update is the “consolidation of validators.” This function will enable platforms like Lido, which stake on behalf of multiple users, to manage fewer validator nodes for the same amount of ETH. The outcome will be reduced pressure on the network, increased efficiency, and a more sustainable use of resources.

4. Verkle Tree

This integration is quite technical, so we will explain it without delving into the details. Verkle Trees will enable network nodes to store less data than currently. The outcome? A lighter, faster, and more scalable network. 

This is a new and more efficient way of organising data compared to the current method. This change will ultimately make Ethereum more efficient and cost-effective to use in the long run.

5. Peer DAS for Layer 2

Ethereum relies on Layer 2 solutions, such as Arbitrum (ARB) and Optimism (OP), to enhance network scalability. With the recent Ethereum updates, Peer Data Availability Sampling has been introduced. This technology helps reduce costs and improve transaction speeds on these Layer 2 solutions by allowing rapid verification of transaction data without downloading it. It is a practical measure to keep fees low, even during periods of high on-chain activity.

A double update in two stages

Pectra will be released in two phases. The first phase, which will feature the more visible new enhancements, such as account abstraction and updates for validators, is scheduled to be released in less than a month, with the official date set for May 7, 2025. The second phase will focus on more technical improvements, including the EVM Object Format (EOF) and Peer DAS, which are intended to enhance Layer 2 solutions and smart contracts., This phase is expected to arrive in 2026. What is the impact on ETH price? Hard to say…

Ethereum is currently facing some challenges. After reaching multiple all-time highs, it has lost over 60% of its value and appears stuck in a continuous downward trend. For this reason, we are not confident that the Pectra update will significantly impact its price.

However, this update could pave the way for broader adoption and may positively affect Ethereum’s fundamentals, which is the most crucial aspect. With features such as the ability to pay gas fees using any token, more efficient writing and deployment of smart contracts, and flexible staking management, it’s clear that these enhancements make Ethereum more attractive to both developers and end users.In summary, Pectra is not just another upgrade; it represents a critical step toward creating a more scalable, affordable and accessible Ethereum network. This update is a quiet but significant stride toward overcoming the blockchain trilemma of scalability, security, and decentralisation, ultimately preparing the network for mass adoption.

Why is the bull market struggling?

Will quantitative easing kick-start the explosive bull market?

According to the most optimistic investors, the recent bearish movement will kick off the altcoin season. According to the most pessimistic the bull market is over. What is the truth? Does it all come down to quantitative easing?

The season of quantitative easing still appears distant, while the prices of significant assets—ranging from cryptocurrencies to equities—have dropped significantly in recent days. What is lacking in this bull market, which seems quite different from previous ones? While nothing has been lost, the global landscape regarding monetary policies, particularly those of the United States, appears far from a turning point.

In this article, we will explore quantitative easing and discuss why igniting the next alt season might be necessary.

Quantitative easing: what is it?

Understanding quantitative easing is crucial for navigating the current market landscape. Simply put, it is “the central banks‘ secret weapon” for stimulating the economy. This contrasts with quantitative tightening, which involves raising interest rates and decreasing the money supply.

Quantitative easing involves significantly lowering interest rates, making it easier for individuals and businesses to borrow money. It also includes the purchase of government bonds and other financial assets. It acts like an “all you can eat” buffet for central banks. This influx of cheap liquidity, which comes from the money that investors choose not to invest in bonds due to their very low yields, then flows into assets that are considered riskier, particularly stocks and cryptocurrencies.

For the past fifteen years, quantitative easing has been the solution for every crisis, from the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It has also fueled recent bull markets. However, the current situation is different. Despite declining inflation between 2021 and 2023, interest rates remain above the 2% target, at 3% in January 2025. This limits the potential for aggressive monetary policy easing. Additionally, this comes on the heels of Trump’s recent announcements about new tariffs, which have been confirmed for Canada and Mexico. According to the Federal Reserve, cutting rates too quickly could lead to excessive speculation in the financial markets and an overheated economy.

The growth of Bitcoin’s market capitalisation

Despite the absence of quantitative easing monetary policies, the market has experienced explosive growth in the final months 2024. Since November 2022, Bitcoin’s price has surged by 448%, and its market capitalisation has risen from USD 300 billion to USD 1,760 billion, peaking at USD 2,150 billion.

This impressive growth is partly due to the approval of spot ETFs. These financial instruments have attracted approximately $38 billion to Bitcoin and currently hold $101 billion worth of BTC, representing 5.79% of the circulating supply. Bitcoin had never before seen a market capitalisation increase of $1.7 trillion at its peak in January 2025. A look at past cycles reveals the following performance:

  • 2015-2017: +11,082% over 1,068 days, with a $326 billion increase in market capitalisation.
  • 2018-2021: +2,021% over 1,060 days, with a $1.21 trillion increase in market capitalisation.

Overall, this market cycle appears strongly positive when analysing Bitcoin’s performance and the milestones achieved over the past three years.

For example, Bitcoin (BTC) has become a central topic in global financial discussions, significantly influencing debates in the United States, including during the presidential elections. Notably, Senator Cynthia Lummis and former President Donald Trump have both advocated for creating a strategic reserve of BTC for the U.S. Treasury.

Some considerations on the market cycle we are currently experiencing

Let’s set aside quantitative easing, which we’ve already noted is a missing element in this market cycle, and instead focus on how this cycle differs from previous ones. The key question for many crypto enthusiasts is: Will there be an altseason, and will it follow the recent market crash?

It is difficult to determine ‘where we are in the cycle’.

On one hand, we can confidently say that we have not yet experienced a true altcoin season. On the contrary, we have gone through one or more meme coin seasons, the most recent coinciding with the launch of TRUMP, a meme coin introduced directly by the former U.S. president in January.

On the other hand, the price of Bitcoin has increased significantly, rising by 60% from the previous cycle’s all-time high. Additionally, it has been over 12 months since Bitcoin first broke its all-time high in January 2024, making this cycle even more unusual.

Despite this, some industry experts believe the outcome is still uncertain. The new retail investors who have entered the market—partly due to the launch of TRUMP—could return if an altcoin season finally takes place.

Has the meme coin casino replaced the altseasons?

This point is closely related to the previous one. The launch of numerous new meme coins, along with the strong performance of associated platforms such as pump.fun, acts as a funnel that attracts and drains liquidity from the crypto market.

As a result, many investors have shifted their focus to the meme coin sector, while others are giving up on altcoins. Additionally, the high expectations surrounding Donald Trump’s election have somewhat diminished. The president has notent has commented in a while on crypto, particularly since the launch of his meme coin.

An axiom that has always applied in previous crypto market cycles—likely triggered by quantitative tightening and liquidity injections—states that the price of Bitcoin rises first, then Ethereum’s price follows. Finally, liquidity flows into smaller altcoins. However, today, the situation seems to have changed. Only time will tell if this marks a paradigm shift or a delay.

Major market players are continuing to accumulate.

Let’s conclude this article with some positive news. Despite the lack of quantitative easing, which has historically catalyzed bull markets, the current cycle demonstrates remarkable resilience. Bitcoin, fueled by institutional ETFs and unprecedented political recognition, has defied historical patterns by growing in a more restrictive monetary environment. However, the absence of a traditional ‘alt season’ and the dominance of meme coins prompt questions about the future of cryptocurrency: Are we witnessing a paradigm shift or merely a temporary pause?

The answer may be found in patience. Institutional investors continue to accumulate assets, indicating that long-term confidence remains strong. While the current macroeconomic climate—characterised by high interest rates and geopolitical tensions—may dampen enthusiasm, it also creates opportunities for strategic accumulation, potentially setting the stage for a future surge. The actual ‘trigger’ for market movement may not be the return of quantitative easing but rather the market’s adaptation to new rules, where innovation, regulation, and mass adoption craft a different narrative. As the history of past cycles teaches us, one certainty remains: markets always surprise us, often just when expectations are low.

Zealy: the ‘secret’ key for The Box competition

The Box: earn extra gems with Zealy

Are you seeking an edge in Young Platform’s competition, The Box? Take advantage of the social interaction campaign on Zealy to maximise your Gems!

Young Platform has launched The Box to celebrate a significant milestone in our journey: integrating a current account into a single app, merging the worlds of traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralised finance (DeFi).

You may already know that you can win amazing prizes such as MacBooks, iPhones, and the exclusive glow-in-the-dark Young Card through The Box. But did you also know you can earn some of the Gems needed to climb the leaderboard by participating in Zealy?

What is Zealy?

Zealy is a leading community engagement platform utilised by top Web3 projects to connect with users and reward them for contributing to growth, primarily on social networks. By linking your Discord and X (formerly Twitter) accounts to Zealy, you can earn points by completing simple missions, such as:

  • Following Young Platform on X or Instagram.
  • Liking and commenting on posts.
  • Reading educational articles and taking quizzes.
  • Inviting friends to the Discord server.
  • Creating content that promotes the Young Platform ecosystem.
  • Participating in thematic challenges.

The process is simple: complete a task, earn points, and convert them into Gems on the Young Platform app (Crew Quests Category). This will allow you to ascend the leaderboard of The Box!

Why is Zealy fundamental to The Box?

Firstly, while some missions in the app require financial actions, such as buying cryptocurrency, Zealy allows you to earn Gems in a free, affordable, and accessible way.

Additionally, suppose you are familiar with the rules of The Box. In that case, you know that you unlock additional Tickets each time you accumulate a certain number of Gems (including those earned through Zealy). The more Tickets you have, the higher your chances of winning in the final draw, where your ranking does not affect your outcome!

Join the Campaign

Signing up for Zealy is easy!

Joining Zealy is very simple; here are the six steps to take.

  1. Visit this link to register with your email, using the same one as your Discord account if you have one.
The Box: earn extra gems with Zealy
  1. Please confirm your account using the code sent to your email, and then select a username.
The Box: earn extra gems with Zealy
The Box: earn extra gems with Zealy
  1. Please navigate to ‘Account Settings’ in the top right corner, and connect your Discord and X accounts.
The Box: earn extra gems with Zealy
The Box: earn extra gems with Zealy
  1. Complete Tasks: You earn points for each like, piece of content created, or quiz completed. Points for automatic tasks are credited to you immediately, while tasks requiring approval from an admin will take longer. Please check back frequently, as new challenges are added regularly!
The Box: earn extra gems with Zealy
  1. Convert Zealy Points into Gems in the Crew Quests section of Young Platform, and rise the leaderboard!

Don’t you have Discord or X yet?

Discord is the heart of the Young Platform community. Our server’s most active users discuss cryptocurrency, finance, and macroeconomics, share strategies, and assist each other.

Join Discord

X (formerly Twitter) is the go-to social platform for Web3. If you consider yourself a crypto investor, you must have an account.

Join X

What are you waiting for? Time is of the essence—Gems await!

The Box lets you have fun, learn, and win amazing prizes. With Zealy, even a simple like or an invitation to a friend can help you achieve victory.

Take action now:

  • Join the Zealy Campaign,
  • Accumulate Gems, unlock Tickets, and win prizes!

P.S. Don’t forget to complete the new Young Platform account verification to receive your rewards. Without it, even the most precious Gems will remain in the chest!

The Box: how do Quests work?

The Box: How Quests Work

Discover how to complete Missions, collect Gems, and climb the leaderboard to win exclusive prizes!

Managing your finances and building a balanced crypto portfolio doesn’t have to be tedious or complicated. In fact, we believe that learning how to manage your money can be both engaging and enjoyable. At Young Platform, we focus on games, quests, and challenges to innovatively introduce people to the world of crypto and personal finance. Of course, exciting prizes are part of the experience!

This philosophy led to the creation of The Box, a competition that signifies Young Platform’s transition from a simple crypto exchange to the first crypto-native payment account. Central to this evolution is the Quests, designed to reward users through an engaging gaming experience. These quests align perfectly with our mission: learn by playing.

What exactly are Quests, and why do they hold such significance? Let’s explore this together!

Quests: The Heart of The Box

Quests are challenges that each user can complete to accumulate Gems, and they are not all the same:

  • Some are completed only once, such as the first deposit or activating a feature in the app.
  • Others are repeatable, allowing you to continuously earn new Gems, e.g. by performing recurring operations.

How Gem Redemption Works

After completing a Quest, you must redeem it manually to obtain the corresponding Gems. If you forget to redeem a repeatable Quest, it will only be counted once, even if you complete it several times. 

Note: This rule does not apply to ‘Invite a Friend’ Quests, where each invitation is considered a separate Quest.

What are gems for

The Gems you obtain serve two purposes:

  1. Climbing the Gem Leaderboard, which rewards the most active users with guaranteed prizes.
  2. Unlock Tickets, which allow you to participate in the random prize draw.

Important: there is a limit to the number of Tickets you can obtain through Quests, but Gems do not have a limit and can be accumulated to improve your Leaderboard.

Join The Box now

The Quests categories 

The Quests in The Box are divided into four broad categories: Bazaar, Loyalty, Toolbox and Crew.

  • Bazaar: This section features Quests, which is aimed at helping you develop a substantial and diversified cryptocurrency portfolio. Here, you can complete challenges to reduce risk, create a long-term savings plan, understand the role of the Young token within the ecosystem, and explore various methods for depositing on the Young Platform. Additionally, you can experiment with different types of buy and sell orders directly on the platform.
  • Loyalty: In this category, you will find quests related to Young Platform’s loyalty programs. If you choose to become a HODLER of the Young token, you will gain access to exclusive clubs that offer various benefits. These include discounts on trading quests, additional strategies that can be activated on Smart Trade, increased staking options, discounted tax reports, free market reports, and VIP support. Furthermore, you will also receive benefits from external services such as WeRoad, HelloFresh, NordVPN, Builtdifferent, Tickets, and many more.
  • Toolbox: Here are some tasks related to account security and customising your Young Platform experience. For example, you can add widgets to your homepage to monitor your portfolio in real-time. This category also includes all quests dedicated to staking, which allows you to earn annual rewards on funds locked on the blockchain.
  • Crew: This category focuses more on the community aspect. Along with inviting friends and family to use Young Platform, you can continue playing on Zealy. The Box expands through games on Zealy, an entertainment platform where you can earn XP points for extra gems. You can earn XP points by interacting with our social content and sharing Young Platform updates!

Gem Leaderboard: How does it work?

The Gem Leaderboard is the system that identifies the top 5 winners of the main prizes in The Box, along with the 200 deserving Young Card winners. Each user has a dedicated section within the Young Platform app where they can check the following:

  • Number of Gems accumulated: This increases with each Quest redeemed and is used to climb the Leaderboards and unlock Tickets.
  • Number of unlocked Tickets: This indicates how many tickets you have obtained, which can be used to enter the random prize draw.
  • Leaderboard position: This is updated in real-time based on the accumulated Gems. The final Leaderboard will be made official after the new identity verification process.
  • Available Quests: This includes the number of Gems that can be earned and the history of challenges already completed.

Only users who complete the new Identity Verification Process (KYC), necessary for enabling the payment account, will be eligible to receive rewards from the Leaderboard and lottery rewards..

What prizes can you win with the Gem Leaderboard?

Prizes for the top 5 finishers:

  1. MacBook Pro 
  2. iPhone 16 Pro 
  3. iPhone 16 
  4. AirPods Max 
  5. Amazon Voucher (€250.00)

Prize for the first 200 finishers:

  • Young Card is associated with the Young Platform payment account.

Quests, Gems and Tickets: A Dual Reward System

The Box offers two ways to win:

  1. Gem Leaderboard → Rewards the 200 most active users.
  2. Ticket drawing → Randomly rewarding those who have accumulated tickets, regardless of the Leaderboard.

If you don’t make it to the top of the leaderboard, you still have the chance to win thanks to the Tickets you get by completing Quests.

You just have to get started: log in to the app, complete the Quests, collect Gems and climb the leaderboard to win prizes from The Box!

Join The Box now

The Box: how do tickets work?

The Box: How Tickets Work

Exciting news: there will be a final lottery for everyone! Let’s look at what tickets are and how they function.

The Box marks a significant development within the Young Platform ecosystem and introduces an exciting new feature: the final lottery. This lottery offers a splash of luck and randomness, making it ideal for those new to cryptocurrencies or those who have yet to climb the ranks.

Tickets represent the final opportunity in a critical game: the more tickets you hold, the greater your chances of a favourable outcome. But how exactly do they work? Let’s explore together.

What are Tickets, and why are they important for The Box?

Tickets are your entry pass to participate in the final draw of The Box. The more tickets you have, the greater your chances of being selected and winning a prize.

Each ticket has a unique code; if your code is drawn, you will win the corresponding prize! 

The Box was designed with a dual reward system that balances effort and luck:

1. The Leaderboard and Gems rewards the most active users who complete quests and accumulate Gems. The top 200 users on the leaderboard win guaranteed prizes.

2. The Draw and the Tickets: This mechanism uses randomness to give everyone a chance to win, regardless of their ranking.

Thanks to this system, even those with limited resources can have the opportunity to take home a prize!

How are tickets obtained?

You can accumulate a maximum of 26 tickets through two methods:

  • Accumulating Gems: Every time you reach a certain threshold, you automatically unlock a Ticket.
  • By completing special Quests, some dedicated quests allow you to obtain Tickets directly without accumulating Gems first.

The Ticket Prizes

Participating in the final draw means a chance to win fantastic prizes. Here’s what you can win by simply accumulating tickets and letting luck take its course:

  • 3 MacBook Air
  • 5 iPhone 16
  • 5 AirPods Max
  • 5 PlayStation 5 Pro
  • 40 flight vouchers from €150
  • 120 Amazon vouchers for € 50
  • 300 Young Cards

Join The Box now

How does the extraction work?

After the competition concludes, all tickets will be entered into a random prize draw. Each ticket has a unique code submitted to an automated draw system in the presence of a notary. If the code associated with one of your tickets is drawn, you will win the corresponding prize!

The draw begins with the most valuable prizes and continues until all prizes are awarded. Naturally, by purchasing more tickets—each of which has an equal chance of being drawn—you increase your chances of winning additional prizes. Therefore, the more tickets you hold, the better your odds of winning and the more prizes you can receive.

To receive any prizes won in the draw, you must complete the new identity verification process (KYC) on the Young Platform app. Only verified users will be eligible to receive the awarded prizes.

Where do you see your Tickets?

In the Box section of the Young Platform app, you will find: 

  • the number of Gems accumulated
  • the number of unlocked tickets 
  • your ranking
  • quests available and completed. 

Log in to the app to visit the Competition section!

The Box: Win the glow-in-the-dark Young Card and exclusive prizes!

Join The Box competition and win great prizes

Join The Box: complete quests, collect gems and earn tickets for the final lottery. Discover your financial future with the Young Card and enjoy many unmissable prizes.

Managing your money doesn’t have to be tedious or complicated. Young Platform aims to make finance accessible and engaging, turning every experience into an enjoyable game. What better way to learn than through a competition with prizes?

Introducing The Box, a competition celebrating Young Platform’s transformation from a crypto exchange to the first crypto-native payment account. This significant change brings new features, exciting opportunities, and, most importantly, new prizes!

At the core of The Box are the Quests, a series of Quests that enable you to accumulate Gems to climb the leaderboard, along with Tickets for a chance to win in the final prize draw. The highlight of the competition is the Young Card, a glow-in-the-dark debit card that stands out and offers a 3.6%* cashback on every purchase.

Test your skills, challenge your luck, and try to win great prizes, such as a MacBook Pro, iPhone 16 Pro, PlayStation 5 Pro, and more!

Visit the official website of The Box.

What is The Box?

The Box is a prize competition by Young Platform, running from March 18 to May 31, 2025. There are two ways to win:

  1. Gem Leaderboard: Complete quests to accumulate Gems and rise in the Leaderboards for a chance to win exclusive prizes. 
  2. Ticket Extraction: Collect Tickets, which serve as entries for the final lottery. This allows you to win prizes even if you’re not among the top finishers.

How do you win?

Leaderboard in Gems

The more Gems you earn by completing Quests, the higher you rank. Participants with the most Gems receive the most prestigious prizes.

Prizes for the top 5 finishers:

  • 1st place: MacBook Pro
  • 2nd place: iPhone 16 Pro
  • 3rd place: iPhone 16
  • 4th place: AirPods Max
  • 5th place: Amazon voucher worth € 250.00

Prize for the first 200 finishers:

  • Carta Young is the phosphorescent debit card from Young Platform.

Ticket Extraction

After the Leaderboard prizes are awarded, a random draw is held among all participants who have earned at least one ticket. Even those not at the top of the Leaderboard list can win!

Prizes to be won in the Ticket draw:

  • 3 MacBook Air
  • 5 iPhone 16
  • 5 AirPods Max
  • 5 PlayStation 5 Pro
  • 40 flight vouchers from €150
  • 120 Amazon vouchers for €50
  • 300 Young Cards

The more tickets you have, the more chances you have to win!

How to participate in The Box?

Complete Quests and Accumulate Gems

Quests are the heart of The Box: complete them to earn Gems and climb the leaderboard. Quests can be:

  • One can only be completed once.
  • Repeatable, which you can complete several times to earn new Gems.

Important: once you have completed a Quest, you must redeem it manually to obtain the Gems.

Find out more about how Quests work.

Find out more: Get extra gems with Zealy 

Getting a Ticket for the Final Draw

Tickets allow you to participate in the final prize lottery. Each Ticket has a unique code; if your code is drawn, you win the corresponding prize!

You can obtain tickets in two ways:

  • Accumulate Gems → By reaching certain thresholds, you automatically unlock Tickets.
  • Complete Special Quests → Some Quests reward you directly with Tickets.

Each user can collect up to 26 tickets in total.

Find out more: How Tickets Work.

Activate your account to receive a prize. 

To receive the awards you have won, you must complete the new identity verification (KYC) required to enable your Young Platform account in a Young Platform account.
If you do not complete the verification, prizes cannot be awarded!

Who can participate?

The Box competition is open to all users over 18 years of age who reside in Italy, San Marino, or Vatican City and have a verified account on the latest version of the Young Platform app. Your account must not have suffered any temporary or permanent suspensions.

Why participate in The Box?

  • Have fun with Quests and competitions.
  • Try your luck with the final draw
  • Win exclusive prizes, including the glow-in-the-dark Young Card

Download the Young Platform app, register for the competition and enter!

*Cashback varies depending on whether you belong to a Club and your Club level. The higher your Club level, the higher the percentage of cashback you receive with your card, up to 3.6% for Platinum Club members.

Young Platform Pro: what’s new in the update and the benefits for users

young platform pro v4

Young Platform Pro is undergoing a significant update that brings new features and improvements for a smoother and more efficient trading experience. Key updates include a redesigned interface, advanced order management, and a new API version that enhances speed and operational efficiency.

Let’s look at what’s changing and how users can benefit.

A More Intuitive and Functional Interface

New Homepage and Pairs Page

This update features a redesigned homepage and an enhanced Pairs page, offering more comprehensive market insights for faster and easier access to essential trading information.

Improved Desktop Adaptability

The desktop interface has been optimised for a smoother experience, providing better screen size and resolution adaptability.

Enhanced Order Book Data and Order Clarity

Several improvements have been made to refine how market data is displayed:

  • Enhanced order book data visualisation
  • More precise positioning of limit orders
  • Improved pair selector with more details and new categories for different coins

These updates make it easier to access market data, enhancing user decision-making.

Upgraded TradingView Chart

The TradingView chart now allows users to:

  • Hide open limit orders
  • View historical trade positions

This enables traders to customise their views and focus on the most relevant information.

More Detailed Order Management

Users can now see individual trade executions within orders, providing a more precise and detailed overview of their transactions.

Faster Shortcuts Between Wallet, Orders, and Trading Area

Navigation between wallets, orders, and the trading area has been streamlined with improved shortcuts, reducing the time needed to switch between sections.

Easier “Dust” Management

Users can now efficiently manage dust (small crypto balances) by converting it into Young (YNG) tokens, simplifying wallet maintenance.

API Update: Improved Performance and Speed

For advanced traders and developers, the new version of the Young Platform Pro API brings essential improvements.

New Features in API v4

  • Updated transaction models
    The new API efficiently handles all transaction types, offering greater flexibility and accuracy. 
  • 30% Reduced Latency for Trading Operations
    Placing and cancelling orders now come with at least 30% lower latency, ensuring faster and more efficient trading.
  • WebSockets Support
    WebSockets enable real-time updates for market data and orders, providing a more dynamic and responsive experience.

Impact on Services

  • Markets → Faster market data updates
  • Trading → Quicker order execution
  • Transactions → Improved transaction management models

Transition Timeline

From May 31, 2025:→ API Key creation for version 3 (v3) will no longer be available
From June 6, 2025:→ API v3 will be discontinued – migrating to v4 is required to avoid service interruptions

Get Ready for the Change

The Young Platform Pro update significantly improves the platform, making it faster, more intuitive, and highly functional.

For API users, transitioning to v4 is essential to ensure seamless operations and take advantage of the latest optimisations.

Useful Resources

REST API DocumentationPostman Docs

Examples & WebSocketsGitHub Repository
With these updates, Young Platform Pro solidifies its position as an innovative platform that provides advanced tools to improve trading efficiency and performance.

Discover Young Platform PRO

Mario Draghi: seven factors endangering the future of the European Union

Mario Draghi returned to his report on European competitiveness. Today, five months after its publication, it is incredibly late. Here are seven reasons.

Mario Draghi returned to his report on European competitiveness. On Tuesday, 18 February, speaking at the European Parliament, he reiterated the urgent reforms proposed in the document published five months ago. Indeed, with the new geopolitical and economic context, the critical issues highlighted are even more pressing.

For Draghi, the future of the European Union depends on its ability to act as a single economic entity, reduce internal fragmentation, and face global challenges with greater cohesion. However, the path will be complex and involve all key economic aspects: research, industry, trade and finance.

Here are the seven main factors that are endangering Europe’s future from an economic point of view.

1. Europe is practically absent in the fight for artificial intelligence

The first point Draghi raised concerns Artificial Intelligence (AI). The former ECB president pointed out that progress in this area has been impressive: AI algorithms have reached accuracy levels close to 90 per cent in scientific benchmarks, and the costs of training models have been drastically reduced.

Despite this, Europe is almost absent from global competition. Eight of the ten leading companies in the sector are from the US, and the other two are from China. Without targeted investments and a clear industrial strategy, Europe risks falling behind in one of the most strategic sectors for the economy’s future.

2. Energy prices are unsustainable

Energy prices in Europe remain two to three times higher than in the US, creating a substantial competitive disadvantage for European companies.

During the energy crisis in 2022, the price of electricity in Germany increased more than tenfold compared to normal levels. Although the situation has improved, the European industry’s dependency on external suppliers and the slow energy transition remainsignificantr problems.

3. Trade war against the US is imminent

Draghi identified US trade policy as a real threat to the European economy. Should Donald Trump return to the White House, new tariffs on European products are almost inevitable, putting the continent’s exports at risk.

Moreover, trade restrictions against China are already causing Chinese products to invade European markets, directly affecting local industries.

4. Europe is its own greatest enemy

Mario Draghi then spoke of stagnation, the European economy growing much more slowly than in other regions. One main reason is the absence of a truly integrated single market. According to the International Monetary Fund, internal barriers within the European Union amount to 45% tariffs for the manufacturing sector and 110% for services.

Start-ups and innovative companies often prefer to move to the US rather than grow in Europe due to the red tape and lack of access to capital. Draghi emphasised that the EU must simplify its regulations and promote a plan to harmonise national laws to enable companies to compete globally.

A significant example is GDPR, the European Data Protection Regulation, which, according to some estimates, has increased data management costs for European companies by 20%.

5. Capital markets suffer

Europeans, and mainly Italians, are among the world’s biggest savers. However, these savings are not invested in innovation but mainly in bank accounts, allowing credit institutions to generate profits without contributing to the technology sector’s growth.

Every year, around USD 300 billion remains in the coffers of lending institutions while start-ups struggle to raise capital to expand. Draghi believes that creating a more efficient capital market favouring innovative companies’ financing is necessary.

7. The legislative process is too slow

Draghi pointed out the European Union’s average time to adopt new regulations is 20 months. Such a delay is incompatible with the pace of technological innovation and economic change.

“If it takes us 20 months to legislate, we are already out of date before implementation,” said the former ECB president. This problem is particularly evident in the digital sectors, where the US and China can adapt their regulations quickly to foster the growth of emerging industries.

8. The decisive turning point

Finally, Draghi pointed out that the European Union continues to act as a coalition of states rather than as a single economic and political entity. An obvious example is the defence sector, where systems are not interoperable, and no common standards exist.

The lack of coordination between member states limits Europe’s ability to protect its interests and support the growth of local companies. “If we want to defend our borders, make our companies prosper and secure a future for European citizens, we have to start acting as one nation,” Draghi said.

Mario Draghi’s competitiveness report highlighted more current challenges than ever. If Europe wants to maintain a leading role in the global economy, it must tackle these problems head-on.

The alternative is clear: continue to lose ground to the US and China, with negative consequences for businesses, workers and the continent’s future.