The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been released, the data used to estimate inflation in the United States of America
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been released, the data used to estimate inflation in the United States of America. The fate of the markets hinges on US inflation and, therefore, on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published on May 12. In this article, we will find out what the CPI is, why it is important, and analyze the latest available data.
CPI meaning
Technically, the CPI (Consumer Price Index), or Consumer Price Index, is a fundamental economic indicator that measures how much the prices of everyday goods and services have changed. In other words, the CPI tells us how much it costs to live today compared to the past.
The CPI is calculated by collecting price data on a representative “basket” of goods and services that consumers typically purchase. This basket includes a variety of products, such as food, clothing, housing, transportation, education, healthcare, and other common goods and services. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects prices every month in 75 urban areas and compares them with those of the previous period.
Why is it important?
The CPI is used to measure inflation, meaning how much the cost of living increases. If the CPI goes up, it means prices are rising and that, on average, one has to spend more to live like they did before.
Bitcoin and CPI: how are they connected?
The Consumer Price Index is one of the main indicators that the members of the Federal Reserve take into consideration when they have to make choices regarding monetary policy: generally, when inflation drops, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is more comfortable cutting rates, and vice versa.
Currently, however, analysts believe that the Fed Chairman and the Board of Governors presiding over the FOMC are inclined to keep rates steady for the upcoming meetings as well, in order to assess the impact of the cuts made during 2025.
Bitcoin generally reacts positively to rate cuts: when money is cheaper, investors are more inclined to shift liquidity toward more volatile assets in search of higher returns. In this hypothetical scenario, equities and crypto are among the top choices.
In any case, the CPI remains a fundamental tool for understanding the inflation trend and trying to predict the behavior of the American central bank: if you’re interested in the topic, you can find all the dates for 2026 in our article on the Fed’s meeting schedule.
The last time it happened
The latest CPI for April came in higher than forecasts and the previous month’s CPI: the data, consistent with what was written above, did not influence the Fed’s choices, which, as we anticipated, left rates at December levels.
So, how did today’s CPI turn out?
CPI May 2026: data analysis
On May 12, 2026, the BLS published the report on price changes for US consumers. According to the report, the monthly CPI (MoM) increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, while the year-over-year CPI (YoY) grew by 3.8% compared to April’s measurements. This data, there is no point in wrapping it in a euphemism, is negative, as year-over-year inflation does not seem to stop and is moving further and further away from the Fed’s target of 2%.
Will the CPI for June be higher? It is highly probable: even if the war involving the United States, Israel, and the Islamic Republic of Iran were to end, the effects of a prolonged increase in the price of Brent will be felt for a long time.
Interest rate cut on the horizon? Forget about it
What will the Fed decide regarding interest rates at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC? On the FedWatch Tool, the premier instrument for these kinds of forecasts, the odds of a 25-basis-point cut are now down to zero. The No Change is set at 99.9%, with a remaining 0.1% linked to a rate hike.
Historical data of the YoY CPI in 2026
Here is how the CPI is tracking in 2026:
May 2026: +3.8% (forecast 3.7%)
April 2026: +3.3% (forecast 3.3%)
March 2026: 2.4% (forecast 2.4%)
February 2026: 2.4% (forecast 2.5%)
January 2026: 2.6% (forecast 2.7%)
2025 Data:
December 2025: 2.7% (forecast 3.1%)
October 2025: 3% (forecast 3.1%)
September 2025: 2.9% (forecast 2.9%)
August 2025: 2.7% (forecast 2.7%)
July 2025: 2.7% (forecast 2.7%)
June 2025: 2.4% (forecast 2.5%)
May 2025: 2.3% (forecast 2.4%)
April 2025: 2.4% (forecast 2.5%)
March 2025: 2.8% (forecast 2.9%)
February 2025: 3% (forecast 2.9%)
January 2025: 2.9% (forecast 2.9%)
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