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US FOMC: no rate cut in April. How did the market react?

April and May 2024 FED meeting: forecasts, news and decisions

The FED and its president, Jerome Powell, have decided that interest rates will remain unchanged. When will we see the first cut?

The situation on interest rates has changed dramatically compared to last month. Chairman Jerome Powell announced the Federal Reserve’s (FED) decision of 1 May 2024, which ruled out a rate hike in the coming months. 

This statement denotes a change of course on the part of the US central bank, as its president had announced his intention to make at least three rate cuts during 2024 in past meetings.

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The Fed’s decision

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on 1 May ended like the four previous ones, i.e. with nothing. The Federal Reserve decided not to change interest rates, which remain fixed in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. What weighed on the decision, which was taken by a unanimous vote of all meeting participants, was mainly inflation. According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, published on 10 April 2024, inflation in the US stands at 3.5%, still well above the 2% target.

In short, the current scenario is very different from the one assumed at the beginning of 2024. At that time, experts predicted six or seven downward adjustments in interest rates, in the grip of the wave of optimism that had swept through the investment sector. In March, then, after revising expectations, Powell announced his intention to make at least three cuts during 2024 starting in June.

The labour market also falters

In April, the US labour market was also less buoyant than in previous months. According to the report released in early May, the unemployment rate rose and new jobs were fewer than analysts had expected.

The ‘Nonfarm Payrolls‘ figure, i.e. payrolls excluding the agricultural sector, returned +175,000 instead of the +240,000 expected, while the unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. These figures are particularly harmful compared to those of March (around 300,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate at 3.8%), reflecting the market’s optimism.

The reaction of the markets

Although, in theory, the postponement of the interest rate cut should not be exactly positive news for the markets, the major US indices reacted well to the FOMC decision.

On the same day, the S&P 500, the index tracking the performance of the five hundred most capitalised American companies, lost about 1.5%, only to recover in the following days. It is currently in the 5,185 area, thanks to a bullish movement that started the day after the meeting of about +3.5%. The NASDAQ and the Dow Jones also performed well over the past week. They rose by 4.7% and 3% respectively. 

In recent months, the performance of the US stock market seems increasingly decoupled from the country’s monetary policy. The leading indices are close to all-time highs and do not suffer from the periodic postponement of interest rate cuts.

What will the Federal Reserve decide in the coming months? The central bank’s main objectives remain the same as in March: to control inflation and promote employment, although the situation has worsened compared to two months ago. Will inflation go back down, and will this allow the US central bank to proceed with the first, long-awaited interest rate cut? Or will the FOMC and Jerome Powell change their minds again, and the cost of money remains unchanged throughout 2024? 

If we were to see the first scenario, interest in the crypto sector could also grow as government bond yields decrease. You can prepare for this possible scenario by buying Bitcoin on our app!

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The Halving of Bitcoin 2024 has just happened. Why set up a recurring purchase now

Bitcoin's halving has happened: what to do?

Bitcoin’s halving was successful. What to do? Historical data predicts rises in the months following the event, so why set up a recurring buy now?

What should we do now that Bitcoin’s halving has happened? After the rewards for miners have halved, many wonder what will happen to cryptocurrency’s price.

Historically, this event has established a market cycle that seems to repeat itself at similar intervals. Where do we stand now? Could the recent cryptocurrency retracement be an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a lower price?

Halving Bitcoin, what to do: analysis of the BTC price in 2024

For the price of Bitcoin, 2024 has been an interesting year. At the beginning of the year, BTC was in the $40,000 price range, while today, it orbits around $56,000 after the crypto recorded a new all-time high at $73,000 in March. Just comparing historical data might be the right way to get an idea of its future price targets.

In the days following the 2020 halving, which occurred on 11 May of that year, Bitcoin’s price was in the $8,000 zone. In January 2021, it broke to its current all-time high at $20,000, while less than 12 months after the event, it recorded a new one at $64,000.

The main difference from that market cycle concerns the new all-time high. Bitcoin recorded a new all-time high about a month before the important event.

If you have been with us in the crypto market for a few years, you may remember that BTC rose in a similar move during the bear market of 2018-2019. At that time, the rise was 100%, but then it quickly subsided. Due to the market shake-up over the last few weeks, we are again below the ATH, but given Bitcoin’s performance during 2024, we might reach it again soon!

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How long until the next upturn? 

Looking at Bitcoin’s past bear market performance, we can see that after the bottom, the crypto took some time to recover. Indeed, it has been “water under the bridge” since November 2022, the month in which Bitcoin hit the low point at $15,000. Should it move as it has in the past, that area of the chart will never be reached again.

Still referring to past movements, buying Bitcoin regularly over the next few months could bring great satisfaction. Indeed, one could put the crypto aside at bargain prices, waiting for the explosion that usually occurs a few months after halving.

Of course, one cannot look at the past to predict the future, but knowing historical data is indispensable for making decisions.

What to do? Focus on recurring purchase

What could stimulate the price rise? In the past, Bitcoin’s halving has jump-started crypto. In fact, the halving of rewards has always been the starting point of a new bullish cycle. 

Contrary to what one might think, these price movements and the consequent reaching of new all-time highs never occur suddenly. Above all, the initial phases are usually very slow and gradual and become more explosive after new highs are reached. 

It must also be said that the experts’ forecasts for BTC at the end of 2024 are decidedly optimistic: according to Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick, the price of Bitcoin, after halving, will easily touch $100,000. For TechDev, the outlook is at $160,000.

Setting up a recurring purchase in pre-halving Bitcoin only takes a few minutes. Go to the Piggy Bank section of the Young Platform app, choose the amount and frequency you want and start saving your cryptos by taking advantage of the bear market!

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*The information in this article is for educational purposes and is not an incentive to invest. It is based on historical and objective Bitcoin market data, and the charts do not represent future predictions. The performance of any cryptocurrency portfolio is always subject to market conditions and volatility.

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Halving Bitcoin: the complete list

Historical Halving Bitcoin: complete list and dates

Bitcoin halving: here’s the history and dates to keep in mind. When did they occur, and what happened to Bitcoin issues?

There have been three halvings of Bitcoin in history so far, and the dates of each have always been closely monitored. This mechanism, internal to the system, regulates the gradual decrease in rewards given to miners who validate blocks. It reduces crypto in circulation and thus maintains scarcity, and it is one of the most anticipated moments for the entire crypto market.

In this article, we will look at the history of Bitcoin’s halving by specifying the dates on which these halvings occurred and try to understand their effect on the price. So far, during the halving market cycles, Bitcoin’s price growth has been more than exponential.

You will find a complete guide to the upcoming 2024 Bitcoin halving at the following link.

Halving of 2012

The first Bitcoin halving in history took place on 28 November 2012. This event marked a crucial turning point for the crypto world, as this mechanism was activated for the first time. 

In the months that immediately followed, the price of BTC was not positively affected by the event. However, from the beginning of 2013 onwards, the value of the crypto began to rise steadily, reaching a high of over $1,100 in April. This figure, which seems derisory to this day, was impossible to predict at the time and was reached from the $8 level, thanks to a bullish movement of 12,000%.

  • Date: 28/11/2012
  • Block number: 210,000
  • Rewards per block: 25 BTC
  • Price: $12
  • Price one year later: $964

Halving of 2016

The second halving in Bitcoin’s history took place on 9 July 2016. Because of BTC’s incredible performance in the months following the first halving, many expected the price to rise, which indeed came in May of that year. A few days before, the rewards for miners halved. However, the value plummeted from $750 to $450. In the following months, digital gold literally exploded to the upside, its value orbiting around the $20,000 mark a year and a half later.

  • Date: 09/07/2016
  • Block number: 420,000
  • Rewards per block: 12.5 BTC
  • Price: $663
  • Price one year later: $2550

The halving of 2020

The pandemic’s start strongly influenced Bitcoin’s price action at the third halving in history (May 2020). After the disastrous performance in 2018, Bitcoin’s price returned strongly in early 2019. However, the arrival of Covid-19 also strongly influenced digital gold, which lost more than 60% of its value from January to April.

After touching the low point on 20 April 2020, it resumed strongly, using the following month’s halving as a ‘launching pad’. The bullish market cycle of the third halving in history culminated in the current ATH at $69,000.

  • Date: 11/05/2020
  • Block number: 630,000
  • Rewards per block: 6.25 BTC
  • Price: $8,740
  • Price one year later: $58,000

Want to prepare for the next halving coming? Consider accumulating some Satoshi through recurring buying. That way, you won’t suffer too much from market volatility.

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Halving 2024: Where can Bitcoin go from here?

  • Date: 20/04/2024
  • Block number: 840,000
  • Rewards per block: 3,125 BTC
  • Price: $64,500
  • Price one year later: N/A

Now that the halving of 2024 is behind us, one might wonder whether this event will make history in the crypto sector as it has in the past. It has to be said that Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency sector are very different from when its predecessors took place. By now, BTC has become a recognised asset even by institutional investors, especially after the approval of spot ETFs issued by large US funds.

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Therefore, it can be useful to compare it with other assets to try and predict how it will behave. For instance, there are those who see BTC as the digital store of value par excellence and, therefore, believe that its price can grow tremendously. Today, the market capitalisation of gold (the most important physical store of value) is twelve times larger than that of BTC. 

Some instead think that crypto will become the native currency of the Internet. According to the scenario, there is still a lot of room for expansion of this market; the adoption of Bitcoin is still very limited compared to that of the network.

In short, from a historical perspective, the halving of Bitcoin has always positively influenced prices. Of course, one cannot say that the bullish phases of the past were caused solely by these events, but they certainly contributed to a positive narrative.


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Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 after the halving?

Bitcoin's price after halving

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in March. Will it reach $100,000 after the April halving?

What happened in March had never happened in history. The price of Bitcoin had never reached a new all-time high before the halving, scheduled for 19 April (the date may still change).

Since the first target (a new all-time high) has already been reached, it is necessary to identify the next one. In this sense, the most sensible one seems to be the $100,000 mark, a key price zone since the last bullish cycle. According to the Stock-to-Flow model, it was the ‘final’ target for Bitcoin’s price. 

Will BTC reach $100,000 after the next halving? We try to answer this question by analysing the halving mechanism, what happened during past cycles and the macroeconomic situation.

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Halving as a ‘marketing move’

In the past, every halving has had an impact on the price. Not only does the event lead to a reduction in BTC issuance, but it halves it. Certainly, the decrease in Bitcoin’s inflation, which currently stands at around 1.7% and will fall to 0.85% after halving, impacts the asset’s value, especially in the long term. However, the effect this event has on the price of BTC is also different.

Specifically, it can be understood as an arguably unintentional ‘marketing strategy’ of Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. This is because Nakamoto designed Bitcoin’s blockchain so that the halving happens suddenly, catalysing attention and stimulating debate around the cryptocurrency. 

In fact, the decrease in BTC issuance does not occur gradually, as is the tokenomics of many other cryptocurrencies, but every 210,000 blocks, i.e. about four years. 

In this way, halving becomes, by necessity, a major event that every industry enthusiast eagerly awaits. But that is not all. Due to its periodic and regular nature, this mechanism not only punctuates the cyclical price movements of BTC but also attracts the attention of the mass media and individuals hitherto opposed to this technology.

Faced with this scenario, the days leading up to halving represent a potentially strategic moment for those considering buying but cannot decide on the best time. 

Buying Bitcoin now could allow you to position yourself before the combined effect of reduced issuance and increased interest drives possible price appreciation. While the exact outcome of the halving remains uncertain, history suggests that the event could be followed by an upward phase, making these last few days an opportunity for those wishing to buy BTC to consider it carefully.

C

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The possible imminent interest rate cut

The upcoming halving of Bitcoin comes at a particularly relevant time in history from a macroeconomic point of view. Mainly because interest rates are expected to be cut by the major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (FED) and the European Central Bank (ECB), presumably starting in June. 

This scenario could act as a catalyst for assets considered more volatile or risky, such as equities and, in particular, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In an environment where high-interest rates offer attractive returns, investors, and significantly institutional investors, tend to prefer safer investments such as government bonds or government securities. 

However, as interest rates and, consequently, the yields offered by these instruments fall, capital shifts towards riskier but potentially more profitable assets.  

This context of falling interest rates opens the door to increased interest from institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin.

In addition, the recent introduction of Spot ETFs on Bitcoin has proven to significantly impact the price of BTC, further underlining the importance of institutional investment in the sector. These instruments offer a more accessible and regulated means for these actors to access the cryptocurrency market, acting as a bridge between the traditional financial and cryptocurrency worlds.

Consequently, this scenario sets the stage for a potential bullish rally for BTC. Investors attentive to these macroeconomic and market dynamics might find an additional motivation to consider Bitcoin as an integral part of their portfolio in this context.

Bitcoin’s price after halving in history

Finally, to estimate the impact of halving on the price of Bitcoin it may be useful to look back. How has halving affected the price of BTC in past bull markets? To oversimplify the question and provide a straightforward answer, halving has always had a positive impact.

In the months following the first halving in history, which took place on 28 November 2012, the price of Bitcoin rose from a price of $12 to a high of around $1,000. 

The following year (2016) also positively affected Bitcoin’s price action; the value of BTC reached the historic $20,000 level from the $650 level. 

The last halving in 2020, although it generated a lower price increase than previous halvings—740% compared to 2,900% in 2016 and 8,300% in 2012—allowed Bitcoin to reach an all-time high of $64,000. On 11 May 2020, the day Bitcoin’s issuance halved, the price of BTC was $8,000.

What will happen in the coming months? Will the halving, cutting of interest rates, adoption of spot ETFs, and thus the entry of institutional investors contribute to Bitcoin’s price increase?

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Public debt: which are the seven most indebted countries in the world?

public dept ranking countries

Which countries have the highest public debt? Find out the ranking and where your country ranks.

Public debt is one parameter that describes a country’s economic situation. We hear it mentioned everywhere, often in relation to another measure, GDP, which indicates the total productive assets of a state.

Since we are in a capitalist system, the entire global economy is based on debt. It is a kind of sap, indispensable to achieving the main objective imposed by the economic system in which we live: growth. In 2008, however, a technology was born that has the potential to revolutionise the global monetary system. We are talking about Bitcoin; you can read more about it below.

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However, let us return to the central theme of this article: Which are the most indebted states in the world, and thus, which is the ranking of the countries with the highest public debt? 

Public debt: a problem to be tackled

The ranking of countries by public debt has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, not so much by the order of the states in the ranking but by the amount of money they owe their creditors. In 2028, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global debt/GDP ratio will reach 100%. 

This indicator, usually used to analyse an individual state’s economic situation, measures the amount of debt in relation to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), i.e., the total productive assets of a state, over a year.

If the low ratio, GDP is sufficient to repay the annual debt. If, on the other hand, the ratio represents a large gap between debt and GDP, it will mean that production is not enough to repay the debts, and more will have to be demanded, increasing the ratio even further.

The situation is even more serious if we consider the quantitative tightening policies that all major Western governments have implemented since 2022 to combat inflation. Rising interest rates contribute to increasing government debt costs. In other words, the world is sitting on a mountain of debt; global public debt exceeded the worrying $300 trillion mark in March 2024. 

In short, the situation is becoming increasingly critical. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve (the central bank of the United States), recently said that America ‘has embarked on an unsustainable path’ and is ‘borrowing money from future generations’. Could Bitcoin be the protagonist of the next monetary revolution?

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Despite the above and a total public debt of about 34 trillion dollars, the US does not lead the ranking of countries with the highest public debt. Read on for the ranking!

The ranking of the most indebted countries

The ranking of the countries with the highest public debt is compiled using the debt-to-GDP ratio. The nominal value of this measure taken ‘alone’ does not provide information on the real incidence of a state’s debts.

  1. Japan (264%)

Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio. The cause of this debt is the housing bubble that burst in the 1990s.

  1. Venezuela (241%)

Venezuela’s devastating economic, political, and social crisis, which erupted during the second half of the last decade, is still not over, and its third-place ranking in the ranking of countries with the highest public debt testifies to this. According to estimates, some 8 million people have recently left the country due to its very serious conditions.

  1. Sudan (186%)

Third in the ranking of countries in terms of public debt is Sudan, which has been severely affected by an economic crisis caused by internal conflicts. This has resulted in policies of international isolation negatively influenced by corruption.

  1. Greece (173%)

Greece’s avoided default in 2009 is now a distant memory; the country has certainly improved in recent years. In the second quarter of 2023, it was the second fastest-growing country in Europe.

  1. Singapore (168%)

Singapore is an incredibly advanced city-state, especially economically, and boasts one of the highest per capita incomes in the world. Despite having a high public debt, rating agencies continue to rate it with top marks.

  1. Eritrea (164%)

Eritrea is a dictatorship headed by unelected President Isaias Afewerki. In the African state, the authoritarian government has implemented laws that severely restrict civil and political rights. In addition, it imposes long-term compulsory military and civil service, which forces many citizens to flee.

  1. Lebanon (151%)

Lebanon’s economic crisis has been going on for four years. From 2019 onwards, the country’s public debt has grown enormously, reaching 282% of GDP in 2022. In addition, the Lebanese lira is undergoing a major devaluation, currently taking almost 90,000 to reach the value of one US dollar.

  1. Italy (142%)

Our country ranks fifth among the most indebted countries. Italy’s public debt reached a new all-time high in February 2023 and, after falling slightly in August, has been rising again since September.

  1. USA (129%)

The United States is ninth in the ranking of the most indebted countries. Like Italy, it has pursued quantitative tightening policies to combat inflation. One of the weak points of this type of measure concerns debt. As interest rates rise, so do the states’ liabilities.
Now that you know the ranking of the most indebted countries, you can delve deeper by reading our dedicated Academy article. This starts with a simple definition and then deals with the history of Italy’s public debt.

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Falling inflation in France and Italy: early rate cut?

ECB meeting forecast April 2024 after inflation drop

ECB meeting April 2024: interest rates unchanged

The recent drop in inflation rates in France and Italy has ignited a lively debate about possible moves by the European Central Bank (ECB), with much attention focused on the At the last ECB meeting in April 2024, the Governing Council decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged.

This decision came despite the recent drop in inflation rates in France and Italy. In fact, the picture in March sparked a lively debate on possible moves by the European Central Bank, pointing to the possibility of an early rate cut. This discussion comes against a backdrop of Europe actively trying to balance economic growth with controlling inflation, a topic of considerable interest to investors, policy-makers, and consumers.

The European panorama

The eurozone witnessed a significant reduction in inflation in 20 nations, which fell to 2.4% in March. This result exceeded analysts’ expectations, who had forecast a stable inflation rate of 2.6%  

This is consistent with the inflation trend, which has shown a steady decline since its peak of 10.6% in October 2022, driven by pandemic disruptions and geopolitical tensions, particularly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

A further decline is therefore encouraging and marks a moment of optimism, which the ECB meeting in April 2024 confirmed. 

Indeed, the Council pointed out that most measures of core inflation are showing signs of easing, with wage growth moderating gradually and companies beginning to absorb some of the increase in labour costs into their profits.

The demand-pulling effects of previous interest rate hikes, together with tight financing conditions, are helping to moderate inflation. Nevertheless, domestic price pressures remain strong, particularly in the service sector, keeping service price inflation at high levels.

Falling inflation in France

In France, inflation slowed to its lowest level since July 2021, with consumer price growth slowing to 2.3% in March from 3.2% in February, according to the national statistics agency. This was well below economists’ forecasts, which expected a figure of 2.8%, signalling a general slowdown in price increases. In particular:

  • services inflation dropped to 3%
  • that of energy at 3.4% 
  • and a significant decrease in food inflation to 1.7 per cent, with fresh food prices falling by 3.9 per cent year-on-year.

Month-on-month inflation data further confirmed the trend, slowing from 0.9% to 0.3%, indicating a considerable easing of inflationary pressures in the eurozone’s second-largest economy.

Falling inflation in Italy

Italy also reported a lower-than-expected inflation rate for March, with consumer prices rising by 1.3% year-on-year, against forecasts of 1.5%. This moderation was attributed to the end of seasonal clothing sales and price increases in transport services, along with a slowdown in falling energy costs.

ECB rate cut decisions

The interest rates on the main refinancing instruments, the marginal lending facility and deposits will remain fixed at 4.50 %, 4.75 % and 4.00 % respectively. 

Furthermore, according to statements given at the press conference following the meeting, the Council believes that inflation levels in the coming months will still fluctuate around current levels. The decline in inflation will not be linear and will therefore have to be assessed on a case-by-case basis. In all likelihood, the target level of 2% will only be reached next year. 

François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in June, provided inflation continues to fall faster than expected and the economy remains stagnant. He emphasised the importance of not overburdening economic activity by maintaining a tight monetary policy for a prolonged period.

Speaking at a financial event in Barcelona, Pablo Hernández de Cos outlined a scenario where June could see the start of interest rate cuts by the ECB. As Governor of the Bank of Spain, De Cos’ outlook carries significant weight, highlighting a cautious but optimistic approach to the Eurozone economy.

Wage growth and inflation

Despite encouraging signs of cooling inflation, ECB monetary policymakers remain

Despite encouraging signs of cooling inflation, the ECB’s monetary policymakers remain cautious, particularly as wage growth gradually moderates. Companies are starting to absorb some of the increase in labour costs with their profit margins. 

With service sector inflation down only slightly to an annual pace of 3.9% in February, the central bank is taking a measured approach, probably waiting until June to reassess wage pressures and their potential to bring inflation closer to the target.

Market expectations and ECB position

Analysts believe that the biggest complication could come if the US Federal Reserve delays its policy easing to keep up the fight against inflation. For this reason, they believe the ECB will not cut rates before its big sister. 

To the supporters of this interpretation, ECB President Christine Lagarde replies: ‘We are data-dependent, not Fed-dependent’. She adds, ‘We do not speculate what other central banks might do. (…) Different factors drive inflation in the US and the Eurozone. (…) It cannot be assumed that Eurozone inflation will mirror US inflation.”

After the ECB decision, money markets were pricing about a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in June, compared to about an 80% chance earlier on Thursday.

Experts such as Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, suggest that the March inflation data, combined with upcoming information on wage growth and ECB staff forecasts for GDP and inflation, are tilting the narrative towards a first rate cut in June. Kamil Kovar of Moody’s Analytics interprets the latest data as a significant step towards defeating inflation, advocating up to five rate cuts this year.

Perspectives

The ECB’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and to continue with a measured monetary policy reflects a careful assessment of current economic conditions and the inflation outlook. By committing to a flexible and data-driven approach, the ECB underlines its determination to ensure lasting price stability by balancing the needs for economic growth with its responsibility to keep inflation under control. The ECB’s future moves.will be awaited with great interest, as Europe navigates through complex economic challenges, seeking to ensure a sustainable recovery and long-term stability.


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Deciphering the ECB: Interest Rates, Inflation and What it Means for You

Deciphering the ECB: Interest Rates, Inflation and What it Means for You

On 11 April 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to make a decision that could affect the economy across Europe. Recent data showing a surprising drop in inflation rates in France and Italy are growing speculation about a potential interest rate cut. This article explains the basics of the ECB’s role, inflation dynamics, and the possible impacts of upcoming policy decisions.

The European Central Bank explained

The ECB guards monetary stability for the Eurozone countries, ensuring that the euro remains a stable and reliable currency. Its main tool for achieving this goal is manipulating interest rates, a lever that directly influences economic activity across the continent.

The importance of ECB decisions

The ECB’s decisions have repercussions for the entire economy, from the expansion of companies that borrow to invest in their businesses to interest rates on personal savings accounts or mortgages. 

The adjustment of interest rates can, in fact, stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper or, on the contrary, cool an overheated economy. In other words, the health of the economy, reflected in employment rates, business growth, and consumption, is directly influenced by ECB policies.

ECB impact on markets 

The ECB’s decisions affect not only the traditional economy but also the investment world, including cryptocurrencies. 

When the ECB changes interest rates, it affects how people invest their money. If interest rates are low, it costs less to borrow money, which may make investing in stocks or real estate more attractive. On the other hand, if rates rise, keeping one’s savings in bonds with lower risk rates may become cheaper.

Although cryptocurrencies belong to a market that is considered more volatile, they are not insulated from the effects of these policies. The ECB’s decisions may influence investors’ risk appetite: in times of low rates, some may seek higher returns in cryptocurrencies, while in times of higher rates, they may prefer investment options considered safer.

The element that most influence interest rate decisions is inflation. 

The role of inflation and its effects

Inflation measures how much more expensive goods and services have become in a given period. A certain level of inflation is normal and even desired in a healthy economy, as it indicates growth. However, too high or too low inflation can signal trouble, affecting everything from your grocery bill to your savings.

High inflation means your money is not worth as much as before, affecting how households plan their budgets and the future. To manage inflation, central banks such as the ECB adjust interest rates. Lowering rates can encourage spending and investment by making borrowing cheaper while raising rates can help cool a sluggish economy.

How to monitor ECB decisions 

To monitor these dynamics, you can use Young Platform. As an app and on the web, Young Platform offers free membership and publishes updates that allow you to monitor the impact of economic news on cryptocurrency prices in real-time. Additionally, on the Young Platform website, all content, news, and in-depth articles are free, providing a valuable resource for staying informed.

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Another useful strategy is to mark the dates of upcoming ECB meetings on your calendar or follow live press conferences. This allows you to be among the first to understand the ECB’s decisions and how they might affect the market, including cryptocurrency.

The current economic scene

Recently, there was a positive surprise for the Eurozone economy, including in countries such as Italy, France, and Germany. Inflation, i.e., as we have seen, how fast the prices of goods and services such as food, clothes and petrol rise, fell more than everyone expected in March 2024, to 2.4%. Experts thought it would remain at 2.6 per cent. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile components such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, also decreased from 3.1 per cent to 2.9 per cent. This might seem like a small change, but it has great significance.

  • France: inflation slowed down significantly, with declines in the prices of services, energy and food.
  • Italy reported lower-than-expected inflation rates, following a similar trend to France.
  • Germany has the largest economy of all the Eurozone countries and saw prices increase by only 2.2%, the slowest pace in three years. 

When inflation falls, it means that price increases slow down. For people, this might mean that the money they earn ‘lasts longer’ and that they notice fewer price increases when they shop daily. Inflation cooling in more than two major Eurozone economies has led to more speculation about the ECB’s next step.

What would an ECB rate cut signify?

Interest rates influence how much it costs to borrow money. When they are low, people and companies can borrow more easily to buy a house or invest in new projects.

Thus, if the ECB decided to lower short-term interest rates, it could make loans and mortgages cheaper, stimulating economic growth. However, for savers, this could mean lower returns on savings accounts.

Some numbers to watch out for 

Despite the good news, not all sectors are slowing down similarly. Inflation in services, such as restaurants and transport, remained more or less the same, showing that wages can still push up prices in some areas. The ECB needs to consider this carefully, as such an increase could result in a postponement of the interest rate cut.

The labour market 

While discussing inflation and interest rates, we have to consider another important factor for this picture: the labour market. In February 2024, the number of people out of work in the euro area was 6.5 per cent, slightly lower than last year. This means that, despite everything, people are finding jobs, which is a good sign for the economy. However, the forecast for March given by Istat is not the best, with a provisional 7.5% unemployment rate.

The difficult task of the ECB 

Not all Eurozone countries experience the same situations and have the same economic climate. This difference between countries is crucial for the ECB when considering interest rates. It has to ensure that whatever decisions it makes work not only for countries with inflation problems but also for those doing well. The ECB has the complicated task of keeping everything in balance without causing problems in any area.

Conclusion 

All of this affects us closely, from falling inflation to stable unemployment rates and differences between countries. It affects how much the things we buy cost, how easily companies can grow and, ultimately, how many people can find work. While we wait to see what the ECB decides, we can be sure its actions will directly impact our personaleconomy, investments, and jobs.

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ECB meeting: results of the March 2024 conference

ECB September 2024 meeting: interest rate forecasts

This article explores the outcome of the ECB’s March 2024 meeting, scheduled for 7 March 2024, by analysing decisions on interest rates, asset purchase programmes and adjustments in operational frameworks. As the eurozone faces inflationary changes and economic growth trajectories, understanding the ECB’s strategic responses is crucial for financial professionals, investors and policy analysts.

ECB Monetary Policy Decisions  

In a move closely watched by markets and policymakers, the ECB Governing Council kept key interest rates unchanged, reflecting a nuanced approach to the fragile eurozone economic recovery and falling inflation. 

The decision to keep the rates for the primary refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00%, respectively, underlines the ECB’s cautious optimism and commitment to price stability.

This decision is based on a complex economic environment characterised by declining inflation but persistent domestic price pressures, particularly wage growth. 

The latest staff projections indicate a downward revision of inflation rates for the coming years, with an average expectation of 2.3% in 2024. These provide a glimpse of the ECB’s challenges. The figures and softened growth forecasts underline the delicate balance the ECB aims to strike between supporting economic growth and keeping inflation within its target.

APP and PEPP

A significant part of the adjustments to the ECB’s monetary policy instruments concerns the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). The decision to let the APP portfolio decline aligns with a gradual normalisation strategy, moving away from pandemic-era monetary support measures. The gradual reduction of the PEPP portfolio, scheduled to decline by EUR 7.5 billion per month in the second half of 2024, indicates the ECB’s intention to withdraw cautiously from expansionary monetary stimulus, reflecting a response to the improving, albeit still precarious, economic landscape.

The ECB’s approach to refinancing operations was also reviewed. This analysis underlines the ECB’s efforts to refine its monetary instruments better to align them with current and projected economic conditions, ensuring that liquidity provisions to banks are consistent with broader policy objectives.

These programme adjustments are not merely technical changes but signal a deeper transition in the ECB’s policy paradigm. The ECB navigates towards normalisation by carefully scaling back asset purchases and recalibrating refinancing operations while remaining nimble enough to respond to new economic shocks or developments.

Economic Outlook 

The March 2024 meeting also highlighted the ECB’s long-term strategic planning, mainly through changes to its operational framework for implementing monetary policy. 

The sluggish growth forecast in 2024 suggests a euro area grappling with internal and external pressures, from high government debt ratios to global trade uncertainties. However, the anticipated rebound in consumption and investment from 2025 to 2026 reflects confidence in the region’s underlying economic resilience and the expected easing of inflationary pressures.

This section of the ECB report emphasises the role of supportive fiscal and structural policies alongside monetary strategies. The ECB’s call for rapid implementation of the Next Generation EU programme and greater integration in banking and capital markets emphasises the multifaceted approach needed to address current economic challenges and strengthen long-term growth.

Conclusion 

The March 2024 ECB meeting encapsulates a critical moment in the eurozone monetary policy landscape. By maintaining interest rates, refining asset purchase programmes, and refinancing operations, the ECB carefully balances its immediate responses to current economic conditions with its long-term strategic objectives. 

As inflation rates adjust and economic projections evolve, ECB policies will be crucial in shaping the euro area’s path to recovery and stability.

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Euro-dollar exchange rate, experts’ forecasts for 2024

Euro-dollar exchange rate forecasts

Experts’ forecasts for the euro-dollar 2024 exchange rate: which currency will be stronger? 

What are the forecasts for the EUR/USD exchange rate in 2024? As always, experts in the currency market and beyond closely monitor the EUR/USD exchange rate. Every movement of the quotation is constantly analysed, as is the continuous strengthening and weakening of one currency against another. For this reason, and because of their interest in the pair, experts make their forecasts on the EUR/USD exchange rate every year. 

Euro-dollar exchange rate: forecast 2024

Before analysing the forecasts on the euro-dollar exchange rate, it is necessary to make a few theoretical clarifications. EUR/USD is the abbreviation for the euro-dollar exchange rate, i.e. the rate that indicates how many dollars are needed to buy one euro. In this currency pair, the euro is the ‘base currency’, and the dollar is the ‘quoted currency’. If, for example, the rate is 1.5, it means that $1.5 corresponds to 1 euro.

Forex investors study the euro-dollar exchange rate, generally used to calculate a currency’s strength. This metric is influenced by central bank monetary policies, such as interest rate rises, and macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation or the bond yield spread between the US and Germany. Specifically, when a central bank raises interest rates, money in circulation decreases, increasing its value.

What do the major investment banks’ forecasts on the euro-dollar exchange rate for 2024 tell us? In general, is the euro expected to continue gaining ground against the dollar, or will we see the opposite scenario?

If you are also interested in digital currencies, Young Platform allows you to check the Euro Bitcoin exchange rate and the rates of the best cryptos on the market. 

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Morgan Stanley’s forecasts

According to Morgan Stanley analysts, unlike in 2023, USD will regain lost ground against EUR in 2024.

Their forecast on the euro-dollar exchange rate sees the pair reaching 1 in the coming months. Therefore, the euro’s descent that began at the end of November 2023 will not stop. 

Bank of America and ING

On the other hand, Bank of America (BoA) expects a still relatively strong euro in 2024. The exchange rate estimate is 1.10 and 1.15 in 2024. Several elements could alter these assumptions, but the main one is related to interest rates. BoA analysts think that the Fed’s rate cut, which will take place, again according to them, from June 2024 onwards, will undermine the strength of the dollar. The lower the rates, the more liquidity there should be in the markets, which would favour investments in riskier assets and a drop in demand for the US currency.   

JPMorgan

JPMorgan’s euro-dollar exchange rate forecast from October begins with the realization that the dollar could return strong in 2024 after the crash of 2022/2023.  

The main cause is the war in the Middle East and the possible increase in energy prices. JP Morgan’s forecast for 2024 has a precise price target: 1.00 in the first months of the year. This would translate into a 7% increase in the dollar’s value. 

ABN AMRO Bank

ABN AMRO Bank economists, on the other hand, raised their forecasts for the euro-dollar exchange rate. The bank expects the Federal Reserve and the ECB to start lowering interest rates with the arrival of the New Year. This hypothetical situation would not favour either currency. The exchange rate is expected to settle at 1.05 at the beginning of the year and reach a high of 1.10 in the final quarter. 

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Who are the richest men in the world?

ranking richest men in the world in 2023

Who are the richest men in the world in 2023? Has Elon Musk retained his supremacy, or has another billionaire undermined him? 

What is the ranking of the richest men in the world in 2023? This ranking is calculated according to net worth, which is the difference between the total value of the goods or assets owned, e.g., cash, investments, real estate, and companies, and the amount of liabilities, especially debts and mortgages.

Forbes compiles the best-known ranking of the world’s richest men annually. The one compiled by the US magazine is one of many. However, there is also the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, which returns the value of the possessions of the world’s wealthiest billionaires in real-time and, for this reason, may change in the coming months.

Although these two rankings show slightly different values in terms of assets, they present virtually the same ranking of the world’s richest men, except for the first position. Discover the 2023 ranking in this article. 

10. Steve Ballmer

In tenth place in the ranking of the world’s richest men is the former CEO of Microsoft, Steve Ballmer. Ballmer was one of the tech company’s first employees; he joined the company founded by Bill Gates in 1980. 

Over the years, he held several key roles within Microsoft, including president from 1998 to 2000. After leaving the company in 2014, he owned the Los Angeles Clippers National Basketball Association (NBA) team. His wealth is approximately $80.7 billion.

9. Mukesh Ambani

Mukesh Ambani is the chairman of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), one of India’s largest companies. RIL manufactures petroleum and petrochemical products, fibres and materials for the textile industry. Its assets are USD 83.4 billion.

8. Carlos Slim Helu

Carlos Slim Helu, a Mexican entrepreneur and philanthropist, is ranked eighth among the 10 richest men in the world. Slim Helu is the president of Grupo Carso, an aggregation of companies operating in the telecommunications, construction, and energy sectors. He owns assets worth USD 93 billion.

7. Micheal Bloomberg

Michael Bloomberg is an American entrepreneur, politician, philanthropist, and activist. He founded Bloomberg LP and was the mayor of New York City for three consecutive terms, from 2002 to 2013. He was also a candidate in the Democratic Party primaries for the US presidential election in 2020. His wealth is approximately $94.5 billion.

6. Bill Gates

The sixth in the ranking of the world’s richest men needs no introduction. The founder of Microsoft has led this ranking for several years, continuously from 1995 to 2009 and in 2014 and 2015. His wealth since 2009 has grown every year. According to Forbes, it is around 104 billion dollars, while according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, it is 114 billion.

5. Warren Buffett

Also in fifth position in the ranking of the world’s richest men is a well-known figure who has been the leader in this ranking twice. Warren Buffet is considered by many to be the best investor ever. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, is the sixth largest company on the planet, with a market capitalisation of $713 billion. The total value of Buffet’s assets is $106 billion according to Forbes and $112 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

4. Larry Ellison

Larry Ellison is a co-founder and former CEO of Oracle, one of the world’s largest software companies. According to Forbes, his wealth is approximately USD 107 billion.

3. Jeff Bezos

The bottom step of the podium of the ranking of the world’s richest men is occupied by the founder and former CEO of Amazon, Jeff Bezos. He left the world’s fifth-largest company in 2021 to devote himself to philanthropy and other projects, such as his charitable fund, to combat climate change and promote environmental sustainability. Bezos has been the richest man in the world on four occasions: in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, and his wealth in 2023 is $14 billion.

2. Elon Musk

Silver medal for South African tycoon Elon Musk. Who has recently knocked off the top step of the podium? The new chairman of Twitter, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, and co-founder of Open AI, the company is developing Chat GPT. 

He was the richest man in the world in 2021 and 2022 and is now vying for the top spot with the owner of the LVMH group. Elon Musk’s wealth of around $188 billion is undergoing significant fluctuations mainly due to the controversial deal to buy Twitter.

1. Bernard Arnault

So, who is the wealthiest individual on the planet? Forbes’ rankings of the world’s richest men and the Bloomberg Billionaires Index agree the answer is: Bernard Arnault. 

The Frenchman is chairman and CEO of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, the world’s largest conglomerate of luxury goods companies, which includes Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, Fendi, Moët & Chandon and Dom Pèrignon. Bernard Arnault’s assets are approximately $218 billion.

And in Italy?

Who is the richest man in Italy? In our country, the ranking has remained unchanged from last year. In first place is still Giovanni Ferrero, president and CEO of the group owned by the Piedmontese company, who also occupies the 27th position in the ranking of the richest men in the world. In second and third place are Luxottica’s Leonardo Del Vecchio and fashion designer Giorgio Armani.