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Crypto market and ‘Covid crash’: will central banks save us?

Crypto market crash: like the Covid crash of 2020?

In the last few hours, we seem to be reliving the COVID-19 crash of 2020. Could the market restart after central bank intervention, as it did four years ago?

Over the past few days, fear has reigned in the crypto market, which has collapsed along with the stock market. During yesterday’s day, Bitcoin lost more than 15% of its value in less than twenty-four hours, while the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 lost about 5% and 3%. 

The week of 9 March 2020, the markets were shaken by a similar event, albeit characterised by a more pronounced bearish movement. At that time, the collapse was caused by the outbreak of the pandemic and the adoption of lockdown measures by most of the world’s countries.

Look at the Bitcoin chart

Yesterday’s bearish movement, however, seems to have stemmed from a much broader spectrum of factors: the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the Japanese Central Bank’s cut in interest rates, and the consequent collapse of the Nikkei, the country’s main stock market index. Then, the crisis of US technology companies and the fear of an economic recession in the US were accentuated by the latest unemployment figures.

What are the similarities between these two market crashes? Not so much in terms of the causes and price movements that have already taken place as in terms of the possible responses of central banks and the associated price rebound.

Crypto market collapse: key figures

Yesterday’s crypto market crash was the most violent since 2022. The Crypto Total Market Cap, the total market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies, fell to $1.7 trillion at its most critical moment, registering a 15% drop. If we analyse the performance from the end of July onwards, the market capitalisation of the entire sector faced a 30% reduction due to the massive wave of liquidations.

The positions of many traders were forcibly closed, with a monetary counter-value of about $1.07 billion on centralised exchanges. The total value of those swept away on-chain, on DeFi protocols such as Aave or Curve, was around $350 million. Finally, the founding rates for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures turned negative. This means most investors have positioned themselves short and are betting on a further price collapse.

Exploits Bitcoin’s Bearish Movement

Some have dubbed yesterday, perhaps exaggerating, ‘Black Monday’, a profoundly negative day comparable to those of the pandemic era. Despite this, however, referring purely to the future scenario concerning the crypto market, it may not be the case to despair too much. There are several reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the future. For instance, the price performance of the most important cryptos in recent hours and the possible impact of an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FED), which is becoming increasingly likely.

Covid Crash: price movements

To analyse the current scenario, it may be useful to compare the current situation with the crypto market in 2020. At that juncture, in just a few days, the crypto market lost almost 50% of its total value. The crypto total market cap went from $228 billion to $118 billion, the price of Bitcoin went from $8,000 to almost $4,000, and Ethereum went from $270 to less than $100. Similarly, the performance of the stock market was also affected by the arrival of the pandemic. The S&P 500 lost about 35% of its value in less than a month, while the NASDAQ lost 30%. 

In the months immediately following, however, the market rebounded strongly, mainly due to the expansive monetary policies adopted by all the major central banks, which we will discuss in the next section. The price of Bitcoin, in the following 52 weeks, recorded +1,400%, or more than a x10. On the other hand, Ethereum rose by +1,500%, rising from $110 to $1,800, reaching its all-time high at $4,700 the following year. It was the same for the stock market, although the movements were much smaller in percentage terms. A year later, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ almost doubled their value (+89% and +90%). Could we see the same scenario in the coming months?

Buy BTC

In short, the ‘Covid Crash’ was a launching pad that allowed all assets to restart strongly after their respective corrections, but what was the petrol that allowed the engines of finance to restart?

The response of the central banks

As mentioned in the introduction, the most exciting part is not the price movements of the main assets but what happened afterward, i.e., the central banks’ response to the situation. This is because the main issues that caused these violent corrections seem similar.

On 12 March 2020, the Governing Council of the ECB (European Central Bank) implemented a package of monetary policy measures aimed at “supporting liquidity and financing conditions for households, businesses and banks and helping to preserve the smooth supply of credit to the real economy”. Then, on 18 March, the European Union announced a massive Quantitative Easing measure, i.e. an unconventional policy action to increase the supply of money in circulation, the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Plan (PEPP). The PEPP injected some EUR 1,850 billion into buying public and private bonds from March to December. Adding this figure to those of the other measures, such as the Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO) and the Asset Purchase Program, launched in September 2019 at the end of the Draghi era, brings the total to almost EUR 3 trillion mobilised by the ECB over three years.

On the other hand, the FED, to stimulate the economy and shelter itself from the risk of recession, immediately cut interest rates, a measure that the ECB could not implement given that European rates had already been zero since 2016. Then, the FED continued with Quantitative Easing policies. It is estimated that the FED injected more than $3 trillion into the economy in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic.

What can happen in the coming weeks?

Is the recent crypto and stock market crash a sign that what happened in 2020 could be repeated in the coming weeks? According to most economists, this is possible since the latest US employment data show that the economy is weakening and the risk of a recession is growing.

Leading macroeconomic experts expect an extraordinary meeting through which interest rates will be reduced, at least as far as the US ‘front’ is concerned. For example, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, stated in an interview with CNBC that the Fed is ready to intervene if the US economy deteriorates. The first sign of this came with the latest unemployment figure, which was worse than expected (4.3% instead of 4.1%). Even Elon Musk commented on this, calling the US Central Bank ‘foolish’ for not yet cutting interest rates, as the ECB has already done.

However, the differences from the pandemic period must be noticed too, especially about the size of the crypto world and its degree of adoption. In 2020, the sector’s total value was 10% of today’s, and the world’s most significant investment funds had yet to join this market. 

In conclusion, the current macroeconomic scenario is similar to that of 2020. Can the conflict in the Middle East, the ‘recessionary danger’ caused by more than two years of severely restrictive policies, rising unemployment, and the crisis of technology companies compose a sufficiently strong motive to push global economies to reignite?


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“Buy the dip”: the siren song or the Oracle of Delphi?

buy the dip

“Buy the dip” is a phrase often heard in the world of investment and trading, and it’s particularly popular among those active in the crypto market. Let’s take yesterday, Monday, 5 July, as an example: a sort of “Black Monday”. Anyone who didn’t feel queasy witnessing a BTC drop of over 18% must have heard the siren’s call. Dear Odysseus, shall we admit it? Buy the dip, Buy the dip, Buy the dip. This melody has echoed in the ears of those accustomed to the market’s slaps or who have nerves of steel.

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The last time we saw such a drop was two years ago. And in every crash, there are two faces: one of catastrophe and one of great opportunity. But, of course, not all dynamics can be under our control. Solid risk management is needed, as well as building diversified strategies over time to avoid being too exposed to the market. No one wants to be caught in a snowstorm in their underwear, even if we feel like superheroes (and no, don’t do it; it’s a mistake).

After all this preamble, the question is: what exactly is “Buy the dip”? Is it always worth following this “mantra“, or is it better sometimes to be more cautious? In this article, we will try to answer these questions, hoping to give you an extra sword and shield for the next battle. Our wish is that you may emerge victorious.

What does “Buy the Dip” mean?

The literal translation of “Buy the dip” is “buy the drop”. This trading practice involves purchasing an asset after its price has decreased, hoping this dip is temporary and the price will rise again soon. The idea is that the drop represents a buying opportunity at a discounted price, waiting for the market to rebound.

Advantages

  • Profit opportunities: Buying during a dip can be very profitable if the market rebounds and prices rise.
  • Average cost reduction: By adding positions during dips, an investor can lower the average purchase cost of an asset, improving the potential return.
  • Access to discounted prices: Buying assets during a dip offers the chance to acquire them at prices that could be considered discounted relative to their long-term value.

Limitations and Risks

Despite the potential advantages, Buy the Dip also presents significant risks:

  • No guarantee of rebound: An asset could continue to fall for various reasons, such as changes in economic fundamentals or company management. For example, a crypto that falls from $100 to $60 might seem a bargain, but if the project’s growth prospects are negative, it could drop even further.
  • Difficulty assessing intrinsic value: It’s often hard to tell if a dip is temporary or a sign of further declines. Buying just because the price has fallen isn’t always a good idea if the reasons for the drop aren’t understood. One must ask: Is the drop due to internal issues or external factors? Is it a temporary situation? Is the project resilient? How long will the price correction last?
  • Averaging down: If an investor already holds the asset and continues to buy during dips, they are adopting an “averaging down” strategy, which can be risky if the asset continues to lose value. This strategy, if not managed correctly, can lead to significant losses.

Risk management

When adopting Buy the Dip, we need a plan B—an escape route—something to avoid a fatal hemorrhage. What is it? Having a risk management plan. For example, setting a loss limit to avoid being trapped in a prolonged losing position. Some traders set an exit price to control losses. Suppose a crypto falls from $100 to $60, and the trader decides to sell if the price reaches $75 to limit losses.

Context

Buy the dip is often used in different contexts and can have varying probabilities of success depending on the situation.

  • During an uptrend: Some traders use this strategy when the market is generally rising. Imagine a crypto increasing in value but experiencing a slight drop at some point. Traders who believe in the strength of this uptrend see this dip as an opportunity to buy at a lower price, expecting the price to rise again soon. It’s like taking advantage of sales during a period of high demand.
  • Without a clear trend: Other traders use Buy the Dip even when there’s no evident uptrend. Here, the bet is that the asset’s current decline will increase. This can happen because they believe in the asset’s fundamentals or the project’s potential behind the crypto. It’s like buying a product at a flea market, hoping its value will increase over time, perhaps due to an improvement, a forthcoming novelty, or because the asset is currently undervalued.

“Buy the Dip” in the crypto market

Buy the Dip is a popular mantra in the crypto market, often promoted by influential traders and investors. However, it is important to remember that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and dips can be significant and prolonged. Nevertheless, this strategy has proven successful when buying the most solid assets in the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum. For this reason, every time these cryptocurrencies drop, the mantra “buy the f****** dip” (BTFD) echoes across social media platforms used by enthusiasts in the sector.

It’s no coincidence that from 4 July, as BTC fell below $60,000 for the second time in four months, posts, tweets, and quotes on “Buy the dip” mushroomed on Reddit, X, 4chan, and Bitcoin Talk.

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Examples of “Buy the Dip”

A well-known example is the 2007-08 financial crisis, where many investors bought shares in companies like Bear Stearns and New Century Mortgage, expecting a recovery that never came. Both companies left the business after losing a significant share of their value. In contrast, those who bought Apple shares after the 2020 crash saw a significant increase in value, making the strategy highly profitable.

The opposite: “Sell the Rally”

The opposite approach to “Buy the Dip” is “Sell the rally”, which involves selling an asset whose price has increased, anticipating an imminent dip. Again, the goal is to maximise profits, but it carries similar risks, such as the possibility of selling too early or too late.

To conclude

“Buy the dip” can be a winning strategy in volatile markets and during long-term uptrends. However, it requires good market knowledge and well-thought-out risk management. It is not a foolproof technique and should not be adopted without a critical assessment of the circumstances and one’s risk profile.

Homework: To avoid being overwhelmed by FOMO, it is useful to remember the opposite mantra. Try repeating: “Time in the market beats timing the market”. This can help you keep a cool head and make more rational decisions.

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Cryptocurrencies Under Pressure: Market Crash, Causes, and Prospects

bitcoin crash 2024

Bitcoin Crash: -18% in 24 hours – Here’s Why

The cryptocurrency market has been shaken by a significant drop in valuations, with Bitcoin and Ether recording impressive losses. This article will explore the reasons behind this sudden decline, the implications for investors, and the market prospects.

Let’s start by taking a closer look at the Bitcoin crash.

The Bitcoin Crash

On Monday, August 5, 2024, Bitcoin’s value dropped by over 18%, reaching around $51,100, a level it hadn’t touched in several months. Even more drastic was Ether’s fall, which lost 23%, bringing its value to around $2,200. This collapse has wiped out Ether’s entire annual performance.

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Behind the Bitcoin Crash: Panic in Traditional Markets

The drop in cryptocurrencies coincided with the dramatic collapse of Asian markets. The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates to the highest level in 16 years shook the markets. Panic began to spread at the end of the previous week, during the weekend of August 3 and 4, and peaked on the night between August 4 and 5. One indicator of this fear was a significant drop in the Nikkei index, one of Japan’s leading stock indices.

The Nikkei 225 closed with a loss of 12.4%, the worst session since “Black Monday” in 1987. The Topix followed the same fate, dropping by 12.23%.

Carry Trade and the Japanese Yen

One reason for this concern is related to an investment strategy called carry trade, which investors use to exploit low interest rates in Japan. Here’s how it works:

  1. Borrow at low cost: investors borrow money in Japan, where interest rates are meagre (almost zero).
  2. Convert and invest elsewhere: investors convert the borrowed money (in Japanese yen, JPY) into another currency, such as the US dollar (USD).
  3. Buy stocks: with these dollars, they buy stocks of technology companies in the US stock market, like those in the Nasdaq 100 (an index that includes large tech companies).

Effects of the Carry Trade

When many investors engage in this:

  • The yen depreciates: converting large amounts of yen into dollars causes the yen’s value to fall.
  • The Nasdaq rises: purchasing many American stocks causes their value to increase.

Current Problem

The Bank of Japan recently raised interest rates, increasing the yen’s value. When the yen’s value rises, investors who borrowed yen must repay more in other currencies, making carry trade less convenient. In recent days, many investors have abruptly stopped engaging in carry trade.

Result

  • Markets panic: By stopping the carry trade, investors sell the stocks they had bought (like those in the Nasdaq 100), causing their value to fall.
  • Nikkei Index drops: The sale of stocks and general uncertainty cause significant market drops, as seen in the Japanese Nikkei.

In summary, the market panic was caused by the end of an investment strategy (carry trade) that no longer works well due to changes in interest rates in Japan. This led to massive stock sales and significant market declines, affecting American stocks. Let’s now look at the impact in figures.

Impacts on US Markets

The first to suffer from the “panic-sell” were tech companies. Here’s how their valuations plummeted:

  • Apple: -6%
  • Meta: -10%
  • Microsoft: -12%
  • Amazon: -17%
  • Adobe: -18%
  • Nvidia: -20%
  • Broadcom: -23%
  • Tesla: -25%
  • Qualcomm: -30%
  • AMD: -37%

The Nasdaq dropped 3.4% last week, marking the worst three weeks since September 2022. Currently, futures indicate a further decline of the Nasdaq by 5%, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones down by 2.6% and 1.12%, respectively. The CBOE volatility index, often called the market fear gauge, rose by 58.7%, reaching its highest level since 2020.

Why Tech Companies?

We can outline three reasons:

  1. Warren Buffett, the famous American investor, has sold half his stake in Apple for $76 billion, causing a significant shake-up in the sector.
  2. Intel, one of the largest semiconductor companies, has announced a major personnel reduction, with the layoff of 15,000 employees.
  3. Many prominent American companies reported disappointing quarterly results, below analysts’ expectations. This caused a significant crash in the tech sector’s stock market. After mass layoffs post-pandemic, tech companies became very popular again due to the excitement for artificial intelligence (AI).

Problems with Artificial Intelligence (AI)

However, AI has not proven as reliable as hoped:

  • Profit doubts: experts and analysts from Goldman Sachs have raised doubts about AI’s ability to generate good profits compared to more traditional projects.
  • High costs: the enormous investments required to develop AI must yield the expected returns.

Market Effects

These issues have led to:

  • Stock sales: investors started selling tech company stocks.
  • Stock decline: even companies that met their targets saw a decrease in their stock value.
  • Disillusionment: there is growing disappointment among investors about AI’s promises.

The combination of disappointing financial results and concerns about AI’s profitability caused a wave of sales in the tech sector, increasing uncertainty in global financial markets.

In similar scenarios, fear has a chain reaction. It leads investors to get rid of higher-risk assets, like cryptocurrencies immediately. Let’s see the consequences of the last domino falling: the crypto market.

The Impact of the Crash In Figures

Total Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization (TCMC)

Since August 2, the cryptocurrency market capitalisation has collapsed by $510 billion in just three days. This collapse involved more investors than in the past, thanks to the approval of spot ETFs on Bitcoin and Ether, which attracted many institutional investors.

Market Crash and Leveraged Long Positions

The sudden crypto market crash wiped out over $600 million in leveraged long positions. According to TradingView data, on August 5, the BTC price dropped to around $49,000 before recovering to $52,900. ETH also experienced a significant drop, falling from $2,695 to $2,118 over the same period.

Impact on Ether Traders

In recent months, there has been a significant increase in open interest in Ether, with traders flocking to gain exposure to the asset ahead of the approval of Ether spot ETFs in the US. However, the sharp drop in cryptocurrencies hit hard, and traders seeking leveraged exposure to Ether, with over $256 million in long positions, liquidated.

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Expert Opinions

Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro, stated that cryptocurrencies are often an indicator of investor sentiment. When investors panic or seek to reduce leverage, cryptocurrencies are often the first asset to suffer the consequences. However, Gilbert shared an optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies in the coming months, suggesting that investors might see this situation as an opportunity.

The Economic Scenario

To comprehend this swift decline in the Bitcoin crash, it is crucial to broaden the perspective and examine the underlying beliefs rather than solely the reasons for the downfall. Let’s analyse the conducive environment that transformed uncertainty into widespread panic.

Are the United States Entering a Recession?

Recent economic indicators in the US and many analysts suggest the economy will enter a recession early next year. Recession fears negatively impact the markets, and market participants speculate on potential actions by the Federal Reserve.

Unemployment Data Is Not Positive

The monthly report from the US Department of Labor showed a growth of 114,000 jobs in July, well below the forecast of 185,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. These harmful economic data create a growing sense of alert about a weakening job market and the economy’s susceptibility to recession.

Fed Interest Rates

For a year, the US Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year peak of 5.25%-5.50%. Some analysts fear that this prolonged restrictive monetary policy could push the economy towards a recession. The Sahm Rule recession indicator, which exceeded the 0.50 threshold, has historically signalled the early stages of a recession in the US economy.

While significant data are expected before the September 18 meeting, an acceleration in employment trends in August could strengthen the case for a 50-basis-point cut. However, currently, consensus leans towards a 25-basis-point reduction.

Expert Opinions

Simon White, a Bloomberg rate strategist, notes that the market might be prematurely anticipating a recession that is unlikely to occur before next year at the earliest. He adds that while the Sahm Rule triggers heightened recession concerns, it is often delayed and does not capture many stock downturns, making it neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for a recession.

Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, expressed concerns, stating that the Fed is on the verge of turning a victory into a loss. According to him, the economic momentum has slowed to the point that a rate cut in September might be insufficient and that a more substantial reduction than the typical quarter-point cut might be necessary to prevent a recession.

Trump’s Support for Bitcoin

Considering Donald Trump’s clear stance on Bitcoin, the upcoming US presidential elections could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market. During the recent Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Trump compared Bitcoin to the steel industry a hundred years ago, arguing that blockchain has the potential to shape the future of the global economy.

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Democrats Gaining Ground

However, current polls show a recovery for Kamala Harris nationally and in three key electoral college states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Although the margins are skinny and fall within the statistical error, especially in Pennsylvania, some models give the Vice President slightly better odds than Trump for the final victory. Just a few days ago, this scenario seemed highly unlikely.

From Certainty to Prospect

As a result, the situation that had helped push Bitcoin’s value so high has changed. Trump’s re-election now appears much less inevitable than two weeks ago, making a possible shift in cryptocurrency use in the United States only a prospect. This uncertainty adds to financial and international market concerns, with the Middle East teetering due to rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Unfavourable polls for Trump created the perfect scenario for a Bitcoin crash.

Future Prospects

The recent cryptocurrency market crash, especially the Bitcoin crash, has highlighted their vulnerability to macroeconomic events and political decisions. However, it is essential to remember that fundamental factors, such as the approval of ETFs and Bitcoin’s halving, have yet to show their full long-term impact. These events could potentially lead to a recovery and significant growth in the future.

Despite risk signals, it is essential to note that analysts have rarely successfully predicted a recession with accuracy. Economic forecasts are inherently uncertain and often subject to sudden changes. Moreover, during bull markets, the cryptocurrency market tends to decouple from the stock market, potentially offering different opportunities to investors.

In conclusion, while the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a difficult phase, its long-term prospects remain interesting. Investors need to maintain a long-term view and consider the risks and opportunities this dynamic market offers.

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Crypto AI: Grayscale launches its ad-hoc fund

Grayscale has just announced its crypto AI fund. Find out what this innovative financial instrument consists of.

Grayscale has just announced its Decentralised AI Fund LLC. This brand-new investment fund will allow those who purchase it to gain exposure to the most important crypto protocols aiming to establish themselves in the artificial intelligence sector. 

What cryptos does this innovative fund consist of? What is Grayscale’s main goal, and what artificial intelligence problems could blockchain solve? Find out in this article.

Discover Crypto AI

Grayscale’s new crypto AI fund

Practically everyone knows Grayscale, mainly because it is the largest native crypto investment fund, the first to launch financial instruments on Ethereum and Bitcoin. For this reason, the news released in the past few hours is essential, given the ability of the team of this cutting-edge financial player to intercept new trends. 

The main problem with artificial intelligence, at least according to Grayscale, concerns the centralisation of the companies that control it. 

Few and far between are those who can offer products that can reach the masses, mainly due to the enormous amount of data they hold. As a solution to this problem, various decentralised AI protocols have emerged, aiming to make their processes even more innovative and intelligent. In particular, blockchain technology makes it possible to distribute the ownership and governance of AI services, thereby increasing transparency.

The cryptocurrencies that make up

For now, the information at our disposal tells us that The Grayscale Decentralised AI Fund will self-rebalance every quarter and will accommodate the following basket of cryptocurrencies:

Buy NEAR, RNDR and FIL

The team has yet to comment on possible future additions, but other cryptos will likely be added over time. Why did Grayscale choose these? Well, because they represent the three main categories of crypto AI around today:

  • Protocols that are building decentralised artificial intelligence services;
  • Projects that seek to solve the main problems encountered by AI platforms;
  • Infrastructure networks and resources required for technology development. For example, decentralised marketplaces for data storage, or those for exchanging GPU computing power and graphics rendering.


To conclude, we can quote the words of Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary, Head of Product & Research at Grayscale, who was mentioned in the press release through which the announcement was made. “The rise of these disruptive technologies has created exciting opportunities for investors, and we believe our crypto AI fund is a great way to invest in this emerging sector. Blockchain-based AI protocols embody the principles of decentralisation, accessibility and transparency and can potentially mitigate the fundamental risks emerging from the proliferation of this technology.”


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Crypto AI: the fusion of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies

Crypto AI: the fusion of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies

Artificial intelligence is also conquering the Web3. What is crypto AI, and what innovations will it introduce?

The fusion of blockchain technology and artificial intelligence is now much more than a trend, primarily since the launch of Chat GPT and other similar services, i.e. since its potential was understood. Less than two years later, many of us use these types of services daily, even if there is a feeling that the current scenario is only the tip of the iceberg. 

AI and cryptocurrencies will most likely become increasingly part of our lives. But can these two technologies work together, and, more importantly, why should they? 

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Artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies

Artificial intelligence has been the key technology of the past two years, and cryptocurrencies and blockchain achieved supremacy, at least in part, during the bull run 2021. The big difference in adoption between these two technologies concerns the user experience, as the currently available examples of AI models are easier to use than blockchain protocols and decentralised applications. However, huge strides have been made in this regard in recent years.

However, the two key technologies of this decade can collaborate, and the crypto AI protocols that have emerged in recent months offer valuable support for this thesis. The convergence of blockchain and artificial intelligence became mainstream when ChatGPT was released. OpenAI’s chatbot was designed to interact with users like in a normal chat conversation with which everyone is familiar. On the other hand, the final consecration came in recent months after the staggering performance of Nvidia’s stock, which was, albeit briefly, the world’s largest company.

Since then, many crypto AI projects have sprung up, while existing ones have attracted attention. Moreover, some key protocols have intercepted and exploited the situation by reorganising and modifying their vision in a manner consistent with the needs of this new market segment. For instance, Filecoin has ridden the hype wave on artificial intelligence by offering itself as a storage service provider for emerging AI companies. Or Near, which is harnessing its large roster of developers to create decentralised, self-modifying AI based on user behaviour.

In short, these technologies can coexist; indeed, it is likely that they will. According to Alexander Good, author and respected Key Opinion Leader (KOL), the capitalisation of crypto AI could reach $2 trillion in the next few years, while Grayscale, the world’s largest crypto investment fund, has just launched its exclusive financial product for this sub-sector.

Decentralised AI models: what problems do they solve?

We can start with a technical assumption to answer the question posed in the subtitle, but don’t worry, nothing too complex. Blockchain and AI models feed off the same power source: computing power. In the same way that miners use powerful machines made up of video cards (GPUs) connected in series, the same computing power is used to train artificial intelligence models to make them increasingly accurate and thus useful. In this sense, crypto AI projects such as Render (RNDR) or Bittensor (TAO) deal with tokenising computing power that can then be exchanged and used by network users. Thanks to this possibility, AI models can become more accessible and decentralised. The immense power of artificial intelligence is, today, concentrated in the hands of large and prosperous companies that own the supercomputers needed to ‘run’ them.

The decentralisation discourse also applies to data indexing, i.e., the process of organising and returning data to users that ‘Chat GPT-style’ chatbots and search engines constantly perform. For instance, a protocol such as The Graph takes on-chain data and organises it, making it readable to users, all decentralised. It also uses Semiotic AI to automate searches within its data containers.

Explore Crypto AI

Let us now take a look at the main three objectives of the crypto AI segment and the projects related to them:

  • Building decentralised artificial intelligence services and facilitating user access: In this respect, the main project to watch out for is the Bittensor (TAO) mentioned above, a centralised machine learning platform with more than 90,000 users. Through Bittensor, particularly its sub-networks, it is possible to generate texts, translations, and images that are very precise regarding the prompts you enter. In short, it is a fully decentralised GPT Chat with an internal economy that rewards users who secure it and those who use it.
  • Solving the main problems encountered by AI platforms, such as the authenticity of information and deep fakes (fictitious videos or photos in which the image of a public figure appears). In this sense, crypto AI projects can exploit the key features of blockchain technology, particularly its decentralised nature, transparency, and immutability, to protect users from these threats. 
  • Managing the infrastructure networks and resources required for technology development, particularly storage and GPU computing power. In this sense, the projects that stand out are Filecoin (FIL) and Render (RNDR). As already mentioned, the former allows users to store data through a centralised peer-to-peer cloud-based architecture. This is a perfect solution for emerging artificial intelligence companies.

Render, on the other hand, thanks to its decentralised marketplace for graphics rendering, allows anyone who wants to access the service, whether designers or artificial intelligence models, to do so without having to buy expensive equipment.

Crypto AI: our thematic Moneybox

Now that you know all the main applications of crypto AI and the problems they solve, you just have to discover our new ‘Artificial Intelligence’ Moneybox. We, like Grayscale, intend to enable our clients to gain exposure to this promising sector.

Our Crypto AI cocktail consists of three delicious ingredients: Render (RNDR), The Graph (GRT) and Near (NEAR).

Young Platform’s crypto Moneybox is a separate wallet from the one you normally use to store your cryptocurrencies. It is used to set aside your favourite cryptocurrencies for the long term, avoiding spending them on everyday or frequent transactions. Of course, you also have the option to ‘put your own spin on it’ by creating a Customised Moneybox and choosing up to five cryptos to include and the percentage to distribute on each.

If you want to learn about this functionality, you can consult the guide about Moneyboxes functionality. 


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Biden retires. What happens now?

Joe Biden retires. What happens now?

Biden has officially withdrawn from the US presidential election race. What happens now? What impact has the news had on the market?

This week started with a very important piece of news: Joe Biden, the current president of the United States, has announced that he will not run in the next US elections. According to him, he will “focus on finishing the current term as best he can.”

The diplomatic tones of the announcement are not enough to hide the truth. Joe Biden is retiring because of bad public appearances in recent years and strong pressure from the Democratic Party, which considers him no longer up to the electoral battle due to health problems. Read more in the article.

Biden resigns: Kamala Harris in his place?

“Biden launches Kamala Harris” headlined the New York Times after the news, also given the post on X (formerly Twitter) immediately following the withdrawal letter in which the president announced his full support for his deputy. The announcement came during the day yesterday, shortly after two o’clock in the afternoon, in American time (East Coast time).

It must be specified, however, that Biden did not resign as President of the United States, an action that would have made life much easier for Harris. Had it gone this way, the transition of the leading Dem in the US elections would have been much easier. The main problem with this is that Biden won the primaries and, therefore, there are delegates associated with his name who should have confirmed his nomination as the nominee at the Democratic convention in Chicago. As he did, Biden can only suggest, not dictate, that these vote for Kamala Harris. The fear of an ‘open’ convention, i.e., multiple candidates vying for the vote not of the voters but of the delegates indicated by the primaries in the past months, has been at the centre of much political analysis in recent weeks.

Predictably, after Biden’s announcement, the candidates’ odds of winning also changed. Before the announcement, the poll by Polymarket, the most popular decentralised prediction app, gave Trump a 71% win and Biden a 16% win. However, Donald Trump’s odds of winning have dropped to 64%, and Kamala Harris’s are at 30%.

Look at the graph of Bitcoin

The impact of the news on the markets

A short while ago, we witnessed the opening of the US stock market, which performed very well in the first few minutes of trading after Biden’s departure. The NASDAQ 100, the index that tracks the performance of the hundred most capitalised technology companies, recorded +1.56%, and the S&P 500, +1%. However, the impact of Biden’s withdrawal on Bitcoin was visible from the minutes immediately following the announcement. BTC returned above $68,000, if only for a few hours.

What will happen in the crypto world if Trump wins the November election? In recent months, the entrepreneur and former president has been increasingly pro-crypto. After several pro-BTC statements, the most important news concerns his presence at Bitcoin 2024, the world’s largest conference dedicated to the crypto world scheduled for 22-25 July in Nashville.

However, there is more; a Trump re-election could also cause an injection of liquidity in the ‘traditional’ markets, especially the stock market. His first term was already characterised by expansionary economic policies aimed at stimulating the economy, which could be applied again, given the recent slowdown in inflation. Will his very likely victory in the November 2024 elections signal the start of the most explosive bull run ever?


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Is Arbitrum the most widely used Ethereum Layer 2? Here is the complete ranking

Layer 2 Ethereum: most used

What are the most widely used Ethereum Layer 2s? Here’s who is winning the race to speed up and reduce transaction costs

What are the most widely used Ethereum Layer 2s? These protocols aim to provide faster and cheaper transactions than the main blockchain. The urgent scalability challenge for the ‘world computer’ is played out in transactions per second (tps) and Total Value Locked (TVL). The first metric measures how many transactions a protocol can handle per second, and the second is the total value of locked cryptocurrencies and, thus, the available liquidity. This value is used to assess a project’s spread. 

Ethereum’s main Layer 2s (excluding Polygon, a real blockchain) differ in the scalability technology used: zero-knowledge rollup, optimistic rollup, Validium, or Plasma. Each determines trade-offs between speed, security, and cost. For example, Arbitrum is considered the best solution for developers, Optimism is the most compatible with Ethereum, and zkSync is unbeatable in terms of security. 

Here is the ranking of the most used Ethereum Layer 2s!

Layer 2 Ethereum: Arbitrum in focus

Arbitrum is at the top of the list of the most used Ethereum Layer 2s, a protocol that uses optimistic rollups. You can find NFT marketplaces, play-to-earn games, and stablecoins in its vast ecosystem. It is also supported by the most important decentralised finance dapps, such as Uniswap, Aave, and Balancer.  

Regarding numbers, Arbitrum has an LTV of $16 billion, can theoretically process a maximum of 1,500 transactions per second, and the commission to send ETH costs $0.05 on average.

Several decentralised applications have sprung up on Arbitrum that have dominated the DeFi landscape since the bear market in 2022, notably GMX and Pendle. The ARB token was distributed via airdrop to users who interacted with the blockchain months before its release.

Scopri Young Platform

Optimism

And continuing to talk about the more popular Layer 2s, another scaling solution is Optimism, which, as its name implies, also exploits optimistic rollups. This protocol is known for being integrated with the mother blockchain, so much so that it is said, ‘if it works on Ethereum, it also works on Optimism but at a fraction of the cost’, and for having open source code available to programmers. Synthetix, one of the most popular trading platforms, is developed on it; the network also promised a series of airdrops for its most active users. 

Optimism’s LTV is $7 billion, it processes about 2,000 tips, and the average commission per transaction is $0.03. 

Base

The blockchain developed by Coinbase, one of the most popular centralised exchanges on the market and the only one listed, has exploded in recent months. The reason? Mainly meme coins. Yes, you got that right. Cryptos born ‘for fun’ have increased the popularity of this Layer 2 incredibly.

The total value locked up within Base is currently USD 5.4 billion; at the beginning of March, it was less than a third!

Blast

The fourth Ethereum Layer 2 for TVL today is Blast, a recently born project that has managed to attract more than USD 2.5 billion in liquidity quickly. This sudden popularity is attributable to the aggressive marketing campaign undertaken in recent months. Blast, in fact, announced an airdrop before the launch of its blockchain, thus attracting all users who wanted to receive that free distribution of tokens.

This Ethereum Layer 2 has not yet released its governance token, which will arrive soon. To increase your chances of receiving it, you can buy ETH on the Young Platform, withdraw funds on the Ethereum network, and use a bridge to reach the network.

Scopri Young Platform

Mantle

Returning to the subject of Ethereum layer 2 whose development is managed by the foundations of decentralised exchanges, we cannot fail to mention Mantle. The fifth scaling solution for Ethereum for TVL, which stands at around USD 1.2 billion, is developed by BitDAO, the autonomous and decentralised organisation launched by ByBit.

Starknet

A Layer 2 of the Starkware Industries ecosystem specialising in cryptography. Starknet runs on zero knowledge rollups and STARK Proof. Its LTV is $63 million, and commissions are $0.09.

zkSync Era

In seventh place in the most used and popular Ethereum Layer 2s ranking is zkSync Era. This protocol is based on zero-knowledge technology and aims to scale Ethereum while maintaining its decentralisation. It has over 500,000 active users and supports all projects on the core network without code changes. 

The TVL of zkSync Era is $521 million, and the fee for transferring ETH is $0.09. 

Manta

Manta is a multi-modular Layer 2 consisting of two networks utilising zero-knowledge rollup technology. Manta’s story began with Atlantic, a fast Layer 1 network built on Polkadot, and continued with Pacific, a highly scalable EVM-compatible Layer 2 network.

Manta Pacific’s LTV is currently $795 million, which is why it ranks eighth among the most used Ethereum Layer 2s.

Line

Linea is a Layer 2 blockchain developed by Consensys, the web3 company that developed the crypto wallet Metamask. This is also why this project has raised huge capital through several funding rounds, some USD 725 million.

Linea’s current LTV is $780 million.

dYdX

The ranking of the most widely used Ethereum Layer 2s continues with dYdX, which, unlike the previous projects, is a truly decentralised exchange with an LTV of 335 million. 

Metis Andromeda 

Metis Andromeda is another Layer 2 compatible Ethereum Virtual Machine, born from a fork of Optimism. This protocol is currently the cheapest, with transaction fees less than $0.01. Its Total Value Locked is 94.26 million.

Loopring 

In sixth place in the ranking of the most used Ethereum Layer 2s is Loopring, an emerging DeFi project based on zero-knowledge cryptography. It processes over 2,000 tps, has a blocked value of 101 million and costs around $0.02 per transaction. 

Immutable X

Known primarily as a decentralised gaming network, Immutable X exploits StarkEx’s Validum technology (zero knowledge) to make play-to-earn faster and cheaper. A total of USD 187 million has been blocked on this Layer 2. 

Polygon zkEVM

The ranking ends with Polygon zkEVM. Perhaps the project par excellence that has spread the ‘zero knowledge’ trend in crypto communities. It is also one of the most recent protocols launched last March 2023. Polygon zkEVM has a blocked value of 38.03 million. The fees for a transaction amount to $0.03. 

Looking at the ranking of the most popular and widely used Ethereum Layer 2s, it is clear that with these numbers, one can already speak of mass adoption. Scalability remains the real goal on which crypto projects are working relentlessly. Among the upcoming releases to watch is Scroll (currently under testnet), especially for possible airdrops.

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The 9 most expensive ultra rare pokémon cards in the world

Ultra rare pokémon cards: ranking and prices

What are the 9 most ultra-rare Pokémon cards? Discover the ranking and their staggering prices.

The world of ultra-rare Pokémon cards has captivated collectors and enthusiasts for decades, creating a thriving secondary market. Pokémon, an abbreviation of “pocket monsters,” is derived from the eponymous Japanese video game created by Satoshi Tajiri and Ken Sugimori. The game took the world by storm upon its release in 1996, and the Pokémon trading card game (TCG), launched the same year, quickly gained global popularity.

Today, Pokémon cards are used for gameplay and as coveted collectables. Each card features a specific Pokémon with unique abilities and health points, allowing players to engage in strategic battles. With over 9,000 cards released, some ultra-rare Pokémon cards have fetched exorbitant prices, placing them on par with classic collectables like coins and stamps.

Read on for the ranking of the nine most ultra-rare Pokémon cards in the world – you might just have a hidden gem tucked away somewhere in your home.

What makes Pokémon cards ultra rare and valuable?

Several factors contribute to the rarity of these Pokémon cards. Primarily, it’s their history. Due to their limited production, cards released during special events, exclusive tournaments, or anniversaries tend to be more valuable.

Condition is also crucial. Cards in mint condition, graded “gem mint”, or highly rated by grading services like PSA or Beckett, can command much higher prices than those showing wear and tear.

Like stamps, printing errors can turn an ordinary card into a valuable collectable. These “defects,” such as missing shadows, typos, or altered colours, can be subtle, making them particularly intriguing to avid collectors who know these ultra-rare Pokémon cards by heart.

Lastly, the value of the cards also depends on the Pokémon depicted. Iconic Pokémon like Charizard or Pikachu tend to have higher-valued cards simply because they are more sought after and beloved by fans.

In recent years, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have mirrored the scarcity and rarity of traditional collectables. From stamps and coins to trading cards, clothing, musical instruments, and finally, unique digital assets, the world of collecting continues to evolve. Are NFTs poised to become the new frontier in this domain?

Discover the world of digital assets

The ranking of the 9 most ultra-rare Pokémon cards in the world

9. Kangaskhan family event trophy

This card, released in 1998, celebrates family teamwork in TCG battles. Its symbolic importance and rarity give it a value of $150,000.

8. Umbreon gold star holo

This rare card, featuring a holographic Umbreon, was distributed in 2005 to Japanese Players Club members who had accumulated over 70,000 points. Due to its exclusivity and striking design, it is valued at around $180,000.

7. Ishihara GX promo card (autographed)

This unique card was issued in 2017 to commemorate the 60th birthday of Tsunekazu Ishihara, founder of the Pokémon franchise. Exclusively given to company staff and autographed by Ishihara, it has reached an astonishing value of $247,230, making it one of the most coveted cards by collectors.

6. Snap Pikachu

This rare card from 1999 was the prize in a contest associated with the Pokémon Snap game. Only one copy exists, and it is valued at approximately $270,000.

5. Trophy Pikachu N. 3 trainer bronze

This trophy card, given to the top three winners of the first Pokémon tournament in Japan in 1997, holds significant historical value. Auctioned for an impressive $300,000, it represents one of the first official competition prizes.

4. Trophy Pikachu N. 2 trainer silver

Released in 1998, this trophy card celebrates one of Japan’s early competitive Pokémon card events. Its value reflects its rarity and historical significance.

3. Blastoise Wizards of the Coast presentation galaxy star holo

Created in 1998 as a preview for Wizards of the Coast’s TCG line, this card is extremely rare, with only two known copies. Its scarcity and special status confer a value of $360,000.

2. Charizard Base Set Shadowless 1st edition

This rare Pokémon card from 1999 became famous due to a printing error, lacking the typical shadowing of its more common counterparts. This makes it one of the most desired cards among collectors, with a value reaching $420,000.

1. Pikachu-Holo Illustrator

Distributed to fewer than 20 illustrators as a prize in an art competition 1998, this card is the most valuable and rarest in the world. Due to its extreme rarity and historical significance, it is considered the holy grail of Pokémon cards, with the value of one, perhaps the last in mint condition, estimated at $6 million.

Now that you know which are the 9 most ultra-rare Pokémon cards in the world, it’s time to turn your house, garage, and attic upside down to see if you might have owned one!

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ECB Rates: Impact of the Cut on Markets and the Economy

ecb rates

The ECB Cuts Rates for the First Time Since 2019

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a rate cut on Thursday, 6 June, lowering the deposit rate from 4% to 3.75%, the benchmark rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, and the marginal lending rate from 4.75% to 4.50%. This hasn’t happened since 2019.

This decision was made despite inflation forecasts being revised upwards, indicating a slow and irregular path for rate reductions.

Future Interest Rate Decisions

Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, emphasized that future rate decisions will be made “meeting by meeting” and warned of a bumpy path ahead. She added: “Today’s rate cut reflects the confidence we have in the growth path, but to continue this process, we must wait for analyses to confirm that we are in economic recovery.”

Despite the rate cut, the ECB provided no precise guidance on future moves, stressing that inflationary pressures remain high. Updated forecasts show average inflation of 2.5% for 2024, 2.2% for 2025, and 1.9% for 2026.

Impact on the Labour Market and Economy

The ECB revised its growth forecasts for 2024 upwards, now estimated at 0.9% compared to the 0.6% predicted in March. However, prospects for 2025 were slightly reduced to 1.4%, while those for 2026 remain unchanged at 1.6%. This scenario indicates moderate economic growth in the coming years, with inflation likely to stay above the 2% target until 2025.

Lagarde indicated that wage growth, although still high, is expected to slow down during the year, helping to reduce inflationary pressures. However, rate cuts are likely to slow, with inflation remaining above the ECB’s target for most of 2025. This implies that the ECB will closely monitor various economic indicators to determine future monetary policy.

Consequences of the ECB Rate Cut

The ECB’s rate cut will have several consequences:

  • Reduction in credit costs: Households and businesses will benefit from lower interest rates on loans, thus promoting access to credit and stimulating consumption and investment.
  • Impact on savers: Lower interest rates may penalise savers, reducing returns on bank deposits and government bonds.
  • Stimulus to economic growth: Lower borrowing costs should encourage spending and investment, supporting economic growth. However, the effectiveness of this measure will also depend on global economic conditions and domestic demand.
  • Inflation and wages: The rate cut could influence inflation and wage dynamics. Although Lagarde has signalled that wage growth will slow, inflation may remain high in the short term, further complicating the ECB’s future decisions.

Market Reactions

Financial markets had anticipated the rate cut, pricing in a 25 basis point downward move. Following the rate cut announcement, eurozone government bond yields rose significantly. In particular, the 10-year German bond yield increased by nearly 8 basis points to 2.573%, while the 2-year bond yield rose by just under 6 basis points to 3.033%. Yields on Italian and Spanish 10-year government bonds also rose by 9 and 7 basis points, respectively, to 3.893% and 3.299%.

International Comparison

Despite starting to raise rates later than other central banks, the ECB is now leading with the June cut. The US Federal Reserve, for instance, is still grappling with higher inflation. Other countries like Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland have already started to reduce interest rates in the current cycle.

The ECB has clarified that future moves will depend on economic data and that there is no predetermined path for further rate cuts. With inflation still above target and moderate economic growth, the future of European monetary policy remains uncertain, requiring constant attention and careful assessment of all variables at play.

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FED: Interest Rate Predictions for the June 2024 Meeting

FED

What is the FED’s stance on cutting interest rates? Here are analysts’ predictions.

The Federal Reserve (FED) is the central bank of the United States and plays a crucial role in the global financial system. Economists, analysts, and investors worldwide closely monitor every decision it makes, especially regarding interest rates.

But what can we expect from the upcoming FED meeting scheduled for 11-12 June 2024? Analysts predict that the FED will keep interest rates unchanged, but some signals could anticipate future cuts by the end of the year.

What is the FED, and why is it important?

The Federal Reserve, or FED, is the institution that serves as the central bank of the United States. Its role is to stabilise the economy through the management of money and interest rates. Its main functions are controlling inflation, regulating the banking system, and promoting economic stability. The interest rates set by the FED influence the cost of money, i.e., how much it costs to borrow or how much you earn by saving.

The current interest rate situation

FED interest rates have been steady between 5.25% and 5.5% since July 2023. After a year of stability, the FED decided not to increase rates further despite mixed signals on inflation. According to FED Governor Christopher Waller, some inflation reports in the early months of 2024 temporarily cooled expectations of a rate cut. Still, recent consumer price index (CPI) data suggest that inflation is not accelerating.

Analysts’ predictions for the FED June meeting

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the June meeting is just 0.1%. The forecasting site Kalshi also indicates a 99% probability that rates will remain unchanged. However, analysts predict the FED might signal potential rate cuts later in 2024. During the meeting, the “Summary of Economic Projections” will be updated, where monetary policymakers will outline their forecasts for the end of the year.

Impacts on everyday life

The FED’s decisions on interest rates have a direct impact on people’s daily lives. Higher interest rates mean more expensive loans for homes, cars, and businesses and higher returns for savers. Conversely, lower rates make loans cheaper but reduce earnings on savings. For example, 30-year mortgage rates reached an annual high of 7.79% in 2023, then fell to 7.03% by the end of May 2024.

When might a rate cut occur?

According to bond markets, the first rate cut could happen in September 2024, with a 50% probability. A second cut might follow in December. However, these predictions are subject to rapid changes in response to economic data. For example, there is still a 15% probability that there will be no cuts in 2024.

The June FED meeting is highly anticipated, but it is unlikely to bring immediate changes in interest rates. All eyes are on the updated economic projections and the statements from FED Chairman Jerome Powell. The possibility of rate cuts during 2024 will depend on the strength of the labour market and progress in controlling inflation.

The FED’s decisions will continue to have a significant impact on the global economy and the daily lives of millions of people. Monitoring these decisions helps us better understand economic dynamics and make more informed financial decisions.