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Where to invest today? Have strategies changed?

Where to Invest Today? Have Strategies Changed?

The current portfolio must take into consideration that the world has changed, and with it, the investment strategies too. How to move?

Investing today means conceiving and building an investment portfolio as a tool that can withstand external shocks without capitulating: in two words, it should be diversified. Until a few years ago, there were precise, shared guidelines used as a reference in the financial planning process. Today, the situation has changed. What to do?

Why should investment strategies be rethought?

The world has completely changed in the last 5 years. Since at least 2020, we have been witnessing a series of events that are overturning the established order to which we were accustomed.

Everything we took for granted and considered immutable regarding military interventions, geopolitical alliances and economic agreements is evolving towards a new arrangement. To put it briefly, we might have reached the end of the line for the phase of absolute globalisation, which began with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The basics: where does it all start?

We could place the starting point of this apparent change process in the period between 2018 and 2022. Over the past five years, three historical events contributed to changes in past balances: the trade war between the United States and China, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The trade war between the United States and China

In March 2018, in fact, the American administration led by Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on about $50 billion in goods imported from China, following a report by Robert Lighthizer, US Trade Representative, that denounced certain unfair trade practices by the People’s Republic. The latter, naturally, responded and imposed tariffs on 128 strategic American products.

This initiated a trade war that revealed the criticalities of a super-connected system, perhaps too dependent on Chinese manufacturing: the deterioration of relations coincided with the supply chain crisis. Furthermore, the clash of tones between the two leading world powers, which embodied – and still embody – two opposing economic and political systems, contributed to the re-emergence of polarisation dynamics typical of past eras, especially the Cold War period. Chancelleries around the world returned to asking themselves an old question: which side to take? United States or China?

The Covid-19 pandemic

We arrive at 2020: in February, it is an epidemic, in Jun, it is a pandemic. COVID-19 blocks the world. Leaving iconography aside, the prolonged lockdown exacerbated supply chain problems that had emerged over the previous two years, besides immobilising national production: as Statista reports, the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 3.4% or, in dollars, by 2 trillion. Obviously, financial markets also took the hit: the Dow Jones (DJI) – the most important index in the world – lost about 35% from mid-February to mid-March. In the same period, Bitcoin fell from $9,970 to $5,300, a 46.6% decline.

As we know, both GDP and markets recovered from the blow with a sensational rebound: from that moment to today, the DJI has gained 144%, the S&P500 187% and Bitcoin 2,100% (a percentage that rises to 3,130% if we consider the ATH at $126,000).

Info on the first vaccines began to circulate, collective panic reduced, and confidence returned to acceptable levels. But above all, governments around the world flooded their respective economies with an infinite amount of liquidity and fiscal stimuli.

Taking into consideration only the three leading economic powers, the United States ratified the CARES Act for 2.2 trillion dollars, China approved a plan for 3.6 trillion yuan (about 500 billion dollars) and the European Union put in place a series of interventions – the most important being the PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) and NextGenerationEU – for a total of almost 2 trillion dollars. To this, one must add the various economic policy measures aimed at reducing the cost of money, such as low interest rates, quantitative easing, and so on.

Today, in the US alone, the M2 Money Stock, i.e., the total quantity of dollars in circulation in the real economy, has reached 22 trillion, up from 15.4 trillion in February 2020. At this point, a serious problem began to spread through the corridors of central banks worldwide. A problem to which we devote a lot of time: inflation. But the “best was yet to come”.

The Russo-Ukrainian War

February 2022: Putin’s Russia invades Ukraine; it is the perfect storm. Passing over the humanitarian issue, which, whilst central and very grave, is not the target of our article, the Russo-Ukrainian War is considered the decisive catalyst: its outbreak coincides with the conclusion of that period of apparent peace and free movement of goods made possible by American-style globalisation.

Russia and Ukraine were vital nodes in global trade before the war. Suffice it to say that, together, the two countries accounted for about 30% of global exports of low-cost wheat and cereals, while Russia was one of the leading European suppliers of gas and held a prime position in the worldwide supply of fertilisers, necessary for agriculture.

With the war, all this ceases to exist. The conversion of the Russian and Ukrainian economies to war economies creates significant structural difficulties in both countries, as they no longer produce at pre-conflict levels and fail to meet demand. Furthermore, supply chains are now politicised: before, one bought where it was convenient; now, one tries to buy from allies, even at higher prices (sanctioning enemies). Finally, the damage and strategic blockades of logistics infrastructure – such as the Ukrainian Black Sea ports– constitute a permanent impediment to resource access.

The current state of affairs

Some of the pillars that made the creation of an interconnected and efficient global economy possible have definitively collapsed, such as the constant availability of low-cost raw materials, international transport at negligible costs and logistics security, i.e., the certainty of receiving goods without interruptions or delays. In a few words, it is the end of the JIT (Just-In-Time) model.

The paradigm has changed. Priority is security of supply, not efficiency, also by virtue of the politicisation of supply chains mentioned earlier. The most recent example is China’s decision to limit access to rare earths on a discretionary basis, to which Trump responded by imposing 100% tariffs. The emergency “subsided” in a few days, but these tensions led to liquidations worth billions of dollars.

Inflation becomes a persistent problem insofar as it is systemic, also because it is imported, i.e., upstream: if before the baker sold bread at five. He paid bills at two and flour at 1, keeping another 1 for himself. Now he pays bills at three because he can no longer avail himself of low-cost Russian gas, flour at two, and is forced to raise the final price to earn 1.

In Italy, for example, from 2004 to 2021, prices grew at a slow and steady pace: as Pagella Politica reports, over 17 years, the increase was 28%, with an annual average of 1.5%. Only in 2022, however, the general price index rose by 11%, then fell to 8% in 2023 and returned to 2% in 2024. Put another way, to use the words of the research authors, “little less than half of the increase accumulated in twenty years was therefore concentrated in just three years”.

Now that we have a clear picture of the transformations underway and their causes, it is time to answer the central question.

Investing today: what is necessary to consider?

In the current world, the primary variable to consider when building a portfolio, as we have seen, is high inflation, now a constituent element of our economic system.

In the past, in the world of investments, one “rule” in particular influenced the art of diversification for a very long time: the famous 60/40 portfolio. In two words, this established that the perfect portfolio should be composed of 60% equities and 40% bonds.

The reason is simple: the negative correlation between the two asset classes. This is because, in the “old world”, during periods of economic growth, shares performed better than bonds and, conversely, in moments of recession, bonds compensated for the losses of shares. In this historical moment, however, the 60/40 portfolio is no longer valid.

Shares and bonds are increasingly correlated, and the latter are reportedly gradually losing their status as havens – safe havens to preserve capital – in favour of other assets.

Inflation, in fact, constitutes a big problem for bonds, for at least two reasons: firstly, investors holding them receive fixed interests, or coupons, in return, which are proving unsuitable for protecting capital from the loss of purchasing power; secondly, with such entrenched inflation, central banks are forced to keep rates high causing, ultimately, a descent in the value of bonds.

To give an example, let’s take TLT, an ETF that allows investors to expose themselves to US government bonds with maturities exceeding 20 years: from its launch in 2002 until 2020, TLT performed exceptionally well, growing slowly but steadily, scoring approximately +100%, with the ATH precisely in the first week of March 2020. From that moment, however, a sensational decline began: from April 2020 to today, this ETF has lost more than 40%. If you had invested in TLT at day zero in 2002, you would have earned a scant 10% today.

Where to invest money today?

Naturally, before starting this section, it is necessary to remember that what you will read here is not investment recommendations or financial advice, but only considerations stemming from reading expert opinions.

That said, an interesting analysis comes from within the walls of Goldman Sachs, more precisely from the section dedicated to market analysis, Goldman Sachs Research. In the study, consistent with what has been written so far, one reads that a strategy of “passive acceptance”, such as investment in global indices (World Portfolio), might no longer be so functional. On the contrary, the so-called Strategic Tilting might be more suitable, literally “Strategic Inclination”, i.e., the almost active management of one’s portfolio to safeguard oneself from current vulnerabilities – inflation primarily.

Doing Strategic Tilting, therefore, means diversifying but in a conscious way. A simple metaphor that helps us understand the concept comes from the culinary field.

Imagine wanting to prepare your favourite cake, the one grandmother taught you as a child when you came home from school. Well, grandmother’s recipe, with the quantities and cooking times, worked perfectly with grandmother’s home oven. Your oven, however, heats up more.

It is a variable you must consider; otherwise, the cake will turn out very different and perhaps burnt. Therefore, you weigh the ingredients so that the problem with your oven is minimised: of the 500 grams of flour, you remove 50 grams and replace them with another 50 grams of starch to soften.

Now, your grandmother’s classic recipe is the global index, which worked perfectly with the old oven (the “old world”). The new oven, however, is more powerful – the macroeconomic context is different, and inflation is structural. For this reason, you changed the ingredients or, in financial terms, you actively managed – but not too much – your allocations, so that the cake (the investment) can perform at its best. This is Strategic Tilting.

The analysis, in this regard, identifies five macro-areas to mitigate risks.

  1. Protection against inflation: the 60/40 portfolio, as we have seen, struggles to preserve capital amid the inexorable erosion of inflation. For this reason, experts from the Research section explain, it is necessary to rebalance it by increasing exposure to tangible assets – real estate, raw materials and natural resources – and gold. In this regard, the Chief Information Officer of Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, believes that the noble metal should weigh at least 20%.
  2. Protection from the end of United States dominance: new powers challenge US leadership daily, with China in the lead. For this reason, non-US shares deserve greater attention when planning a medium- to long-term strategy.
  3. Protection from the weak dollar (Pt. 1): the cause and at the same time the consequence of the second point. If the United States lost leadership, the dollar would cease to be the centre of world finance. The argument also holds in reverse: if dedollarisation gained strength, the USA would cede command. In light of this, emerging markets, which have historically been negatively correlated with the dollar, could represent a lifeline.
  4. Protection from the weak dollar (Pt 2): To protect oneself from this phenomenon, it also makes sense to reduce exposure in USD and start looking towards other shores, such as the euro or the Swiss franc.
  5. Protection against volatility: US Tech shares, which carry significant weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, are highly volatile. For example, NVIDIA’s quarterly reports moved the stock by 8% in one day – from +5% to -3% in one session. In this sense, low-volatility shares can attenuate shocks: utilities (companies that provide public utility services) and healthcare (public health).

Have strategies changed?

To answer the opening question: yes, strategies have changed. New investment paradigms, to be in step with the times, should incorporate parameters that can no longer be ignored. Many schools of thought propose different approaches. The common denominator, however, is one: the 60/40 portfolio, the maximum expression of a world now passed, might no longer be the cure for all ills.

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The United States, China, and crypto liquidations: what happened?

The US, China and crypto liquidations: what happened?

Weekend of terror: fears of a new trade war between the US and China led to more than £19 billion liquidated in the crypto market alone. Analysis

The weekend of 10, 11 and 12 October was particularly difficult: the United States threatened tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese imports, set to take effect on 1 November. Naturally, such news caused panic among investors worldwide, and major financial markets, both traditional and non-traditional, suffered heavy losses. In particular, the crypto world witnessed its largest-ever liquidation: £19.16 billion. What caused this shock? Here is the analysis

The trade war between the United States and China 

The trade war between the United States and China, as we know, has been ongoing for years: the world’s two most powerful trading economies have been clashing over this issue, alternating between hostile statements and reasoned ‘truces’. However, in recent months, the negotiations have taken on a harsh tone, to say the least. 

In particular, since that fateful 2 April, also known as Liberation Day, the two sides have intensified their confrontation, with extremely high reciprocal tariffs – up to 145% – and truces with deadlines repeatedly postponed. Recently, however, the situation seemed to be returning to normal, with the United States and China apparently indicating they wanted to continue negotiations in a more collaborative spirit. But in the second week of October, Beijing reignited tensions.   

The trigger

On Thursday 10 October, the People’s Republic announced its intention to impose restrictions on the export of rare earths, over which it has a virtual global monopoly: according to the CSIS (Centre for Strategic and International Studies), China controls 60% of the production and 90% of the processing of these minerals, which are extremely strategic as they are fundamental to the technology (artificial intelligence in particular), energy and defence sectors. 

To be more precise, the breaking point can be attributed to the Beijing government’s decision to grant licences for certain types of chips on a ‘case-by-case’ basis. What does this mean? To understand this, we need to take a brief step back and clarify the dynamics of exporting rare earth materials. 

As we wrote a few lines ago, these goods are valuable because they are irreplaceable components in the manufacture of chips and semiconductors, elements that are fundamental to a nation’s technological and energy development. They are, therefore, goods subject to restrictions, as they are closely linked to national security: by depriving itself of them, China would effectively allow its rivals, led by the United States, to gain a competitive advantage in these sectors. 

With these restrictions, which in theory should come into force on 1 December, the Celestial Empire intends to transform a natural resource into a geopolitical tool. In this way, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) will be able to decide, on a case-by-case basis, whether to issue export licences based on several discretionary factors, including: who is the company or entity receiving the materials? For what purpose? Does the export pose a potential risk to Chinese national security? And so on.

The US reaction: the straw that broke the camel’s back   

Upon hearing the news, Donald Trump wasted no time, immediately publishing a long, fiery post on Truth in which he essentially stated that he did not like this behaviour. The text ends with a not-so-veiled threat of equally harsh retaliation by the United States. And so it was.  

The following day, Friday 10 October, the US President wrote on his Truth social media account that ‘the United States of America will impose a 100% tariff on imports from China, in addition to the tariffs already in place’ and that ‘from 1 November, we will impose export controls on all critical software, without exception‘.

For the sake of completeness, we would like to point out that, at the time of writing, Trump has shown a willingness to reconcile with Chinese Supreme Leader Xi Jinping. The latter, writes the POTUS, “was just going through a difficult time,” adding, “don’t worry about China, everything will be fine” because “the United States wants to help China, not harm it.”

Now that we have a clear understanding of the initial context, it is time to look at the figures and graphs to get an idea of what may have happened: how did we get from tariffs to £19.16 billion in liquidated damages? Let’s take a look together. 

How did the markets react?

To answer this question, we will first analyse the specific performance of the traditional market and the main crypto assets during the “flash crash”. Then, in the concluding part of the article, we will assess the practical repercussions of the event and the recovery of various crypto assets today, Monday, 13 October.

Traditional market reaction (S&P 500)

The influence of friction between the United States and China on the traditional market was marginal, largely due to timing.

In fact, the market only picked up on the initial announcement: China’s notification of restrictions on rare earth exports, interpreted as a potential resumption of trade hostilities with the US. This statement generated an immediate negative reaction, resulting in a drop of just under 3% from previous prices.

As luck would have it (or perhaps not), the traditional market closed its doors just moments before Trump announced a 100% tariff increase on China. This effectively eliminated the second, and more violent, bearish leg, which, as we will see in the section on cryptocurrencies, hit digital assets hard.

Cryptocurrency market reaction (BTC)

The growing optimism at the beginning of October, combined with the closure of the traditional market, which focused attention and liquidity on digital assets, created the ideal conditions for a violent correction. The excess of leveraged positions opened in recent days was the trigger for one of the most significant flash crashes in the history of the crypto market.

The extent of this correction was measured in terms of liquidations. On Friday alone, as we anticipated, the number of positions liquidated was estimated at around $19 billion.

As for Bitcoin (BTC), the collapse occurred in two distinct phases, following the geopolitical escalation:

  1. First Impact (China): When China announced restrictions on rare-earth exports, BTC initially lost around 5%, temporarily falling to £116,000.
  2. Second Impact (Trump): At the height of the clash, Bitcoin fell a further 11% after Trump announced 100% tariffs, hitting a low of £103,084.

This crash resulted in a Bitcoin loss of more than 15%, driven mainly by massive liquidations on exchanges such as Hyperliquid and Binance.

Cryptocurrency market reaction (ETH)

Moving on to Ethereum (ETH), we observe that, as often happens during times of extreme volatility, its dynamics followed those of Bitcoin, but with a slightly higher leverage in percentage terms.

For ETH, too, the crash developed in two distinct bearish phases, which recorded respectively:

  1. First impact (China): A drop of about 7%, bringing ETH to interact with support at 4000
  2. Second impact (Trump): The further escalation of the conflict caused a decisive break of the support level at £4,000, triggering a further 15% decline that pushed the price down to a low of £3,439.

With an overall loss of more than 21%, Ethereum showed greater sensitivity during the flash crash, reflecting its higher intrinsic volatility compared to Bitcoin.

The market rebound (V-shape recovery) 

Despite the colossal number of liquidations and negative performance recorded on Friday, the market showed a rapid and vigorous recovery just minutes after the wave of liquidations ended, confirming a classic “V-shaped rebound”.

  • Bitcoin (BTC): After hitting a low of £103,084, BTC traded at around £115,019 in the following hours, making a recovery of more than 11% in a matter of hours.
  • Ethereum (ETH): After losing more than 21% in the flash crash, ETH returned to trading above the psychological threshold of £4,000. More specifically, the price reached £4,157, marking a recovery of about 20% from Friday’s lows.

These rapid and significant recoveries confirm that, although the cryptocurrency market is undergoing increasing institutionalisation, its nature as a market free of certain regulations and characterised by a very high level of leverage still makes it extremely vulnerable to large movements and potential market manipulation.

To conclude, a reflection: as demonstrated by the exceptional rebound over the past few hours, such shocks do not seem to alter the solid long-term fundamentals of this sector, which continues to show remarkable structural resilience.This is particularly true for Bitcoin. To understand why, just compare this event with the last notable shock, the Covid Crash: on 12 March 2020, Bitcoin fell by 40% in a single day.

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Japan: Why Should We Care

Japan: Why Should We Care

Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has resigned. Sanae Takaichi has been nominated in his place. The issue deserves a focus. Why?

Japan, at this moment, deserves a deeper look. Here we will deal with a new figure in Japanese politics, Sanae Takaichi, a possible future Prime Minister, especially due to her ideas on economic policy. Let us not forget, in fact, that Japan is the fourth-largest economy in the world, with significant weight globally.

Japan: Let’s Quickly Give Some Context

In early September, Japan experienced a delicate moment regarding national politics: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), resigned.

The LDP members chose Sanae Takaichi in his place, who could be the first woman in Japan to hold the role of Prime Minister. First, however, the LDP must find one or more partners with whom to form the coalition that will govern the country. This is because Komeito, literally the “Clean Government Party”, which for more than twenty years was a government ally with the LDP, declared it wanted to break the agreement. All this will make Takaichi’s nomination as Prime Minister slightly more complex.

Let us now see, in more detail, who Sanae Takaichi is and why these political dynamics should interest us.

Who is Sanae Takaichi?

The daughter of an office worker and a policewoman, Sanae Takaichi was born in Nara Prefecture in 1961. Before entering politics, Takaichi was a heavy metal drummer, an expert diver, and a television presenter.

She developed an interest in politics around the 1980s and entered the political game in 1992, when she tried to run for parliament as an independent. The attempt failed, but she did not give up: four years later she ran again with the LDP and was elected. From that moment she is considered one of the most conservative figures of the Liberal Democratic Party.

Moving on to her positions on economic policy, Takaichi is an absolute fan of Margaret Thatcher. Her goal, as she herself has declared, is to become the Iron Lady – the nickname given to Thatcher when she governed – of Japan. Furthermore, she was a protégé of former Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe, a very influential figure in her formation.

This last point is very important: Shinzo Abe, in fact, was the author and strong supporter of an economic policy based on a strong injection of money through fiscal stimuli and increased public spending. The aim was to revitalise the Japanese economy, at that moment in a deep crisis caused also by the shock of the 2008 financial crisis.

Specifically, Abenomics – a portmanteau of Abe and Economics – was founded on three arrows: expansive monetary policy to increase inflation (Japan was in a state of chronic deflation) and depreciate the Japanese Yen, favouring national exports; negative interest rates to incentivise money circulation in the economy; and structural reforms to increase Japan’s competitiveness. Sanae Takaichi has promised to relaunch her vision of Abenomics.

Let us therefore come to the central core of the article.

With Sanae Takaichi, Japan Could Join the Fiscal Stimulus Club

The Japanese Iron Lady seems to have clear ideas: “I have never denied the need for fiscal consolidation, which is naturally important. But the most important thing is growth. I will make Japan a vigorous land of the Rising Sun again”. In other words, economic growth comes before balancing public accounts.

Sanae Takaichi, indeed, has promised huge public funding for government-led initiatives in sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and batteries. She then declared she wants to increase defence spending and announced new tax credits – i.e., fiscal bonuses – to increase workers’ net income, deductions for domestic services, and other tax breaks for companies offering internal childcare services. Finally, her programme envisages strong public investments in infrastructure.

Financial markets, naturally, like all this very much: fiscal stimuli and expansive policy are manna from heaven for businesses, which can access credit more easily, invest, innovate and, ultimately, increase profits, with more than positive consequences for share values. And the effects have already been felt.

Market Reactions: The “Takaichi Trade”

The Nikkei, the main Japanese stock index, proved particularly sensitive to developments regarding Takaichi’s nomination as Prime Minister. Retracing the sequence of events, it is patently obvious how the Japan 225 – another name for the Nikkei – strongly desires the Iron Lady governing the Land of the Rising Sun.

For example, Sanae Takaichi was chosen by the LDP as heir to the resigning Prime Minister Ishiba on the weekend of October 4th and 5th, with stock exchanges closed. On Monday the 6th, the Nikkei gained more than 5.5% in a single session – reaching up to 8% if we also count Friday the 3rd, when rumours were already starting to circulate. The “Takaichi trade”, in this sense, led the main Japanese index to touch new highs.

Equally but conversely, when Komeito broke away from the coalition, undermining Takaichi’s nomination, the market reacted very negatively: on October 10th, the Nikkei lost more than 5.6% on the stock exchange.

Since Komeito’s renunciation, Sanae Takaichi has moved to look for other parties that could support the government alliance, obtaining good results. As favourable news came out, the Nikkei reacted consistently: +5.4% in the week between Monday the 13th and Friday the 17th of October.

Finally, on Monday, October 20th, the leader of the right-wing party Nippon Ishin – the Innovation Party – announced that he will make official the agreement to support Takaichi’s choice as Prime Minister. Once again, the Japanese index shows its appreciation: +2% in one session and an updated All Time High.

What is the Moral of the Story?

So, even the fourth economy in the world could start spending, and heavily. With the new leader, Japan could switch to a regime of great public spending, large deficits, and expansive monetary policy, enormously increasing public debt. The goal: to ensure that economic growth exceeds debt growth.

We are in a historical moment where the top three world economies, with the fourth trailing, have launched fiscal stimulus policies founded on a massive increase in public debt.

The moral, therefore, is singular and very simple: if the main thought is “spend”, the method to realise it is printing money. The necessary consequence is the devaluation of money – or, in other words, inflation. In similar scenarios, the main protection instruments, the so-called debasement hedges, have historically represented a valid exit route for capital preservation.

And when one speaks of debasement hedges, the mind immediately runs towards two assets: gold and Bitcoin. All this is even more valid if we rethink the very recent statements of Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, released during an interview with the broadcaster CBS: “Markets teach you that you must always question your convictions. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have a role, just like gold: they represent an alternative”.

What awaits us in the near future? If you don’t know how to answer, don’t worry, nobody knows. However, to not miss updates, you could subscribe to our Telegram channel and Young Platform, given that we deal often and very willingly with these themes.The information reported above is for exclusively informative and divulgative purposes. It does not in any way constitute financial advice, investment solicitation, or personalised recommendation pursuant to current legislation. Before making any investment decision or asset allocation, it is advisable to contact a qualified consultant.

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Gold plummets: worst crash since 2013

Gold crashes: worst crash since 2013

Is gold reversing course? 21 October marks the worst decline in recent years and surprises investors. What happened and why?

On Tuesday, 21 October, the price of gold fell to levels not seen in about 12 years. The event left investors around the world speechless: added to the extent of the loss was the shock caused by the fact that the value of the precious metal had been rising steadily for months. So? It’s time to analyse the facts. 

The price of gold plummets: what happened?

In just over 24 hours, gold recorded its worst performance since 2013, losing almost 8.3% to reach $4,000, before rebounding and settling at a compound of writshock– in the range between $4,050 and $4,150. 

An incredible figure that testifies to the magnitude of the event is related to the loss, in terms of market cap, of the most noble of metals: this -8.3% corresponds, give or take a million, to approximately $2.2 trillion or, to put it another way, the entire market capitalisation of Bitcoin. 

The collapse of gold has also affected companies linked to the mining sector – some may notice interesting similarities. The two largest mining companies in the world, Newmont Corporation and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, have in fact recorded sharp declines: from the opening of the stock markets on Tuesday 21st to the time of writing, the two companies are losing more than 10%.

Gold is not the only precious metal in trouble: silver is currently down 8.6%, while platinum, which is actually doing a little better, is down 7.2%.

The causes

If the price of gold is plummeting, as many analysts claim, the causes are mainly technical. In a nutshell, the sell-off could be a necessary consequence of the rally that, since January 2025, has seen the yellow metal gain more than 50%: quite simply, if an asset grows for a long time, it is likely that sooner or later someone will decide to take profits. 

To this argument, which certainly carries weight given the rise in gold prices, two variables of a more political and economic nature could be added. 

The first is related to the relationship between the United States and China, which appears to be easing: after the clashes on 10 and 12 October, which eventually triggered the worst sell-off in the history of cryptocurrencies, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet in Seoul on 31 October. The conditional tense is a must because The Donald has repeatedly shown that he changes his mind at the drop of a minute. 

Here is an example. On Tuesday 21st, the POTUS confirmed his intention to reach an agreement with the supreme leader: “I have a very good relationship with President Xi. I expect to be able to reach a good agreement with him,” but then added that the meeting “may not happen, things can happen, for example someone might say ‘I don’t want to meet, it’s too unpleasant. But in reality, it’s not unpleasant. It’s just business.” Pure unpredictability. 

The second, on the other hand, could be understood in part as a consequence of the first: the strengthening of the US dollar. The DXY, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of the six most important foreign currencies, has gained 1.3% since mid-September. 

Is this a reversal of the trend or a temporary retracement?

Has the upward trend in gold come to an end, or are we witnessing a mere temporary halt? This is the question of questions, to which, of course, no one can answer.

What we can say, however, is that a change of course could be excellent news for Bitcoin. An interesting precedent can be found in 2020: when gold reached its market peak in August at £2,080, Bitcoin hit bottom at £12,250 – what times. 

From that moment on, gold moved sideways for about three years before beginning an upward trend that saw it double in value, while Bitcoin embarked on the epic bull run of 2020-2021: from £10,000 in September 2020 to £65,000 in April 2021. A veritable rotation of capital in favour of the King of Crypto. 

Citigroup assigns a strong ‘Buy’ rating to Strategy

In the event of a trend reversal, will the gold-BTC pattern repeat itself in 2025? Again, there is no way of knowing. However, banking investment giant Citigroup has officially started following Strategy (MSTR), Michael Saylor’s company that holds 640,418 BTC: its first recommendation to investors was ‘Buy’, forecasting a target price for the stock of £485. 

The interesting thing is that Strategy’s share price – at the time of writing – is around £280: if Citi sets a target price of £485, it means that it expects the stock to grow by around 70%. Citi analyst Peter Christiansen, who is monitoring MSTR, said that such a price increase “is with its base case forecast over the next 12 months, set at £181,000, a potential upside of 65% from current levels“.

Gold and itcoin, neck and neck?

We’ll have to wait and see what happens in the coming weeks. The data tells us that, over the last three years, more and more financial institutions – central banks in particular – have started to stockpile physical gold, partly to protect themselves from the devaluation of the dollar, accentuated by the Trump administration’s management.

On the other hand, we are witnessing an almost daily increase in showbero entities, both public and private, that are deciding to include Bitcoin in their treasuries and that, generally, no longer see the asset as an alternative, but as a choice.  

Finally, as always, we remind you that the information contained in this article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal or tax advice, nor is it a solicitation or offer to the public of investment instruments or services, pursuant to Legislative Decree 58/1998 (TUF). Investing in crypto-assets involves a high risk of loss – even total loss – of the capital invested. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Users are invited to make their own informed assessments before making any financial and/or investment decisions.

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Fed: Who wants to be the new president?

Fed: Who wants to be the new president?

The Fed changes face: in May, Chairman Jerome Powell will end his second term, and Donald Trump will have to choose his successor. Who will it be?

After eight years, the Fed, the US central bank, will be led by a new chair: Jerome Powell, who currently holds the top job, will have to make way for a new figure. It will be up to the US President to choose his successor. Let’s take a look at the most likely candidates.  

The Fed prepares for a new Chairman.n

In May 2026, the Fed will undergo a significant structural change: the current Chairman, Jerome Powell, will step down after eight years and be replaced. The person who will head the US central bank will be chosen directly by Donald Trump: after the nomination, however, the Fed Chairman candidate will also have to be approved by the US Senate. 

As we shall see, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has released a list of five names, at least three of whom are potentially very close to being nominated. The only spoiler we can give is that Jerome Powell is not on Bessent’s list. Why? For at least two reasons. 

No chance for Jerome Powell: dura lex, sed lex

The first is legal in nature: although the law in force in the US – the Federal Reserve Act – does not set a term limit for the Fed Chair, Powell will leave the central bank due to a rather curious coincidence of events. 

Jerome Powell took office as Governor in May 2012 to complete Frederic Mishkin’s unexpired term – much like the very Trumpian Stephen Miran, who was appointed Governor last July following the resignation of Governor Adriana Kugler.

Two years later, in June 2014, Powell was officially appointed Governor for a full 14-year term, expiring on 31 January 2028. In 2018, Donald Trump, during his first term, promoted Powell to the role of Chair (i.e., President) of the Federal Reserve. Four years later, at the legal end of his term, he was confirmed by Joe Biden, who was President of the United States at the time. This brings us to the present day: in 2026, it will be four years since Biden’s confirmation and, as a result, the word ‘End’ will appear. 

But then, if the law does not set a maximum term limit for the Fed Chair, why can’t Jerome Powell be re-elected to that role? Because the Federal Reserve Act has a fundamental rule: the Fed Chair must also be a member of the Board of Governors, i.e. the central bank’s governors. 

This rule cannot be applied in Powell’s case: even if he were re-elected to the top position at the Fed until 2030, his status as Governor would lapse in 2028, as he would have reached 14 years of service since 2014. At that point, he would automatically be removed from the Chair role.  

The Trump administration’s dislike of Powell is well known

Even if this rule did not exist, the situation would not change: the chances of Powell being included in Bessent’s list would be close to zero. And here we come to the second reason, which is more ‘relational’ in nature: Trump and company do not like the current Chair, to put it mildly. 

As we have reported on several occasions, the President of the United States has often used harsh tones towards Jerome Powell, especially during the summer FOMC meetings, when the much-coveted rate cut was slow in coming. Because of this ‘slowness’, Donald Trump began to nickname him Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell and threatened to fire him on several occasions. 

With Powell now out of the running, let’s take a look at the names chosen by the US Treasury Secretary.

The most likely candidates

On Sunday, 26 October, while travelling on Air Force One to Tokyo, Scott Bessent told reporters that he had narrowed down the number of candidates to five following the first round of interviews, which is expected to be followed by a second round. 

The list includes Trump adviser Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. Let’s take a look at them one by one.

Kevin Hassett

He is a loyal supporter of Donald Trump: he served alongside the US President during his first term as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors and still holds a position in the administration as Director of the National Economic Council. In addition, between the two terms, he worked for the investment fund of Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law. 

Given this background, it would be reasonable to assume that Hassett could be Trump’s first choice, as he is a politician who places great importance on loyalty. However, there are a couple of strategic considerations. 

Firstly, the markets’ reaction to his appointment could be particularly harmful, as a Fed led by Hassett would be perceived as firmly subordinate to the will of the POTUS (President of the United States). 

Secondly, if the Federal Reserve were to make decisions that Trump did not like, with equally unwelcome macroeconomic consequences, the latter would find it much more difficult to blame one of his loyalists: the rhetoric he is using against Powell would have less effect. 

Kevin Warsh

A former Fed governor, he was a member of the Board of Governors during the 2008 financial crisis, before resigning in 2011 following the US central bank’s shift towards quantitative easing (QE) – i.e. a more expansionary monetary policy. He has been an executive director and vice president at Morgan Stanley and is currently a visiting fellow at Stanford University.

His impressive CV rightly makes him a potential successor to Powell. Added to this are his connections with the American conservative establishment: like Hassett, he also worked for the White House as an economic adviser to George W. Bush (also known as Bush Jr.), who later appointed him Governor of the Fed. Furthermore, the family of his wife, billionaire Jane Lauder, granddaughter of Estée Lauder, founder of the cosmetics company of the same name, with a market cap of £32 billion, is on excellent terms with the Trump family. 

However, here too, there are a couple of strategic considerations, starting with his views on monetary policy. Warsh is considered a ‘hawk‘ because, according to reports, he is fixated on controlling inflation, which was the main reason for his resignation as Governor in 2011. A Fed led by Warsh would therefore be more inclined to implement a more restrictive, or at least less expansionary, economic policy. 

In short, a very different attitude from that of the POTUS, who has been imploring Powell to cut rates for months. 

Christopher Waller 

Currently serving as Governor of the Fed, appointed by Trump in 2020, Waller has spent his life between university classrooms and the corridors of the US central bank. 

He has taught as a professor at various universities in the United States – Indiana, Washington and Kentucky – and in Germany – Bonn University. In 2009, he joined the Fed’s St. Louis office as Vice President and Research Director, where he helped create FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), a massive free database of economic and financial data managed by the Fed. 

Waller is a crypto-enthusiast and views the cryptocurrency sector in a positive light: on 21 October, at the Fed in Washington, he chaired the Payments Innovations Conference, a meeting which, in his own words, aimed to “bring together ideas on how to improve the security and efficiency of payments, listening to those who are shaping the future of payment systems“. The conference was attended by, among others, Sergey Nazarov, Co-Founder & CEO of Chainlink; Heath Tarbert, President of Circle; and Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest. 

There is one problem with all this: Christopher Waller’s long experience within the Federal Reserve circles. The future Chair chosen by Donald Trump will also have to be a new figure, capable of reforming the Fed’s structure and making it less decisive in terms of economic management. Waller, on the contrary, may have internalised the very dynamics that Trump intends to dismantle, thus making him unsuitable for the role. 

Michelle Bowman

Michelle ‘Miki’ Bowman is the first of the two outsiders, i.e., those with a background different from the three candidates just examined. However, like Waller, Bowman is also a sitting governor appointed by Trump in 2018. Trump himself promoted her to Vice Chair of the Fed in January 2025, a role that places her just one step below Jerome Powell.

Why is she an outsider? Because, while Hassett, Warsh and Waller have a purely economic or high-finance background, Bowman has a degree in Advertising and Journalism and a master’s degree in Law. 

Before moving on to the last candidate, a note about Michelle Bowman: she is known for being someone who fights tenaciously to advance her agenda and achieve her goals, despite political pressure. For example, she has repeatedly expressed dissent towards many of the Biden administration’s measures. In September 2024, hers was the first dissenting vote by a Fed governor after two decades of unanimous voting on monetary policy. She is a strong-willed woman who would undoubtedly appeal to The Donald.  

Rick Rieder

Rieder is an outsider not so much because of his academic background, but because he is not a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors. He is, in fact, a senior manager at BlackRock with a deep understanding of the bond market, which is his speciality. 

Rieder is therefore not entirely unfamiliar with the workings of the central bank and the political subplots in Washington. Still, he is very familiar with high finance and the bureaucracy that surrounds it. In this sense, he could be considered the antithesis of Waller. 

Finally, Rieder is known for his gruelling work schedule: he is said to get out of bed every day at 3:30 a.m. to get a few hours’ head start on his competitors.     

What are the odds for each of the candidates?

Well, we have examined Jerome Powell’s potential successors; now it’s time to take a look at the bookmakers, namely Polymarket. 

At the time of writing, the odds for each name are: 

  • Kevin Warsh: 15%
  • Kevin Hassett: 15%
  • Chris Waller: 14%
  • Scott Bessent: 5%
  • Rick Rieder: not even listed
  • No announcement before December: 53%

Why is Scott Bessent even on the list? Because Donald Trump, on his trip to Tokyo at the end of October, told reporters that he was considering him as Fed Chair, but that Bessent himself would refuse because ‘he likes working at the Treasury‘. A few minutes later, he backtracked, saying, ‘We’re not actually considering him. ‘ 

So, who will win the race for Fed chair? Or, to quote the article’s headline: who wants to be the new chair?

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Fed rates: Will the next FOMC meeting scare the markets?

Fed rates: Is the next FOMC meeting scaring the markets?

Rates, Fed undecided on next moves: the outcome of the December FOMC meeting is less predictable than those in September and October. What do analysts predict? 

Fed rates have a significant impact on financial markets: investors, aware of the importance of interest rates, try to anticipate the decisions of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to position themselves in the best possible way. Compared to the last two meetings, where the outcomes were practically a foregone conclusion, the December meeting presents numerous unknowns: what is the most likely outcome?  

What happened at the last FOMC meeting?

On 28-29 October, the Fed met at its headquarters in Washington to discuss the macroeconomic situation and decide what to do about interest rates: the Council, with ten votes in favour out of twelve, opted for a 25 basis point cut, lowering rates by 0.25% to a range between 3.75% and 4%. 

The outcome, as we anticipated, was widely expected and already discounted by the markets, which had been growing for weeks – except for the halt on 10 October, when Trump announced 100% tariffs on China.

But it was the press conference following the meeting that was the real key moment. Here, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in listing the reasons behind the cut, made a very significant statement: “A further cut in benchmark interest rates at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, quite the contrary.” Markets in chaos.

Since Powell uttered those words until now – that is, at the time of writing – the major stock indices have entered a phase of severe difficulty, but then they rebounded and are now flat.

The crypto market has also taken a hit, of course, with Bitcoin down 16.8 percentage points since 29 October and Ethereum down almost 20,6. Overall, since that fateful day, the total market cap has fallen by £600 billion, from £3.7 trillion to £3.11 trillion.

Fed, shutdown and block on the publication of macroeconomic data 

During that press conference, Powell responded to questions from journalists about the shutdown’s impact on federal activities. In particular, curiosity focused on the stance the Fed might take at the next FOMC meeting, in a context of almost total absence of data crucial for analysing the macroeconomic scenario.  

Powell himself had already mentioned the difficulties of the moment, stating that “although some important data has been delayed due to the shutdown, the public and private sector data that remains available suggests that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our September meeting“. 

On this issue, however, the most interesting response came from the Fed Chairman to Howard Schneider of the well-known Reuters news agency. The journalist rightly asked him whether the lack of key information, such as inflation or employment, could have led members of the US central bank to “make monetary policy based on anecdotes”, i.e. qualitative data – such as personal opinions – rather than economic models based on quantitative data. 

Powell initially stated that ‘this is a temporary situation’ and that ‘we will do our job‘. He then went on to say, ‘If you ask me whether it will affect the December meeting, I’m not saying it will, but yes, you can imagine… what do you do when you’re driving in fog? You slow down.

In short, the latest FOMC press conference presented us with a Jerome Powell who appeared even more cautious than the classic “we’ll wait and see” approach that characterised the first six months of 2025. A determined Jerome Powell, who wants to see his task through to the end, even though he will leave the top job in May 2026 to make way for the new Fed Chair.

Fed rates: what do analysts and prediction markets forecast?

Here too, the question is entirely open. The most authoritative voices are divided into two camps: a 25-basis-point cut versus no change (rates unchanged). There is, of course, no mention of a 50 basis point cut. 

The first faction, in favour of a quarter-point cut, is leveraging the weakness of the labour market, particularly the slowdown in hiring: in a Reuters poll of 105 economists, 84 bet on a quarter-point cut, while the remaining 21 chose the No Change option. 

In particular, Abigail Watt, an economist at UBS, justified her vote to Reuters by stating that ‘the general feeling is that the labour market still appears relatively weak, and this is one of the key reasons why we believe the FOMC will cut in December‘. Watt goes on to say that she would change her opinion if data were released that ‘contradicted this sense of weakness‘. 

The second faction, those in favour of unchanged rates, instead takes as its main argument Powell’s words quoted above: “the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our September meeting“. 

For example, Susan Collins, head of the Boston Fed, is of this opinion and believes that a third consecutive cut could fuel inflation at a time when the impact of Trump’s tariffs remains unclear. Specifically, she told CNBC that “it will probably be appropriate to keep interest rates at their current level for some time to balance the risks to inflation and employment in this environment of high uncertainty“. 

Interest rates, according to the FedWatch Tool and Polymarket

FedWatch is a financial tool provided by the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) that calculates the implied probabilities of future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Why ‘implied’? Because it deduces probabilities from the market prices of 30-day Federal Funds futures rather than from explicit opinions. 

In simple terms, FedWatch reports market expectations by looking at investors’ portfolios. If it says ‘80% probability of a cut’, it means that 80% of the money invested in the market today is betting on a cut. Currently, according to this tool, a 25 basis point cut is 89,6% likely, while No Change is 10,4%.

According to the most famous prediction market of the moment, Polymarket, the result is a 25 basis point cut at 97%, No Change at 3%, a 50 basis point cut at 1% and a 25 basis point increase at around 1% – if you are interested in knowing how it works, we have written an Academy article dedicated to Polymarket. 

What will the Federal Reserve do? 

As we have explained so far, the Fed will have to take a large number of variables into account before its Chairman leaves the room, approaches the microphone and utters the familiar ‘Good afternoon‘.

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The Reveal: Win a Rolex, Duke 125 and more!

Young Platform is launching The Reveal, a prize contest open to all of Europe, with over 200 incredible rewards up for grabs. 

The Reveal is the most generous initiative in the history of the exchange — and yes, you can win even if you come in last.

From December 9 to March 10, 2026, jump in, climb the leaderboard, or trust your luck — either way, you could walk away with amazing prizes.

Key Points

  • Quests
    Challenges to complete the test that test your consistency and make it fun. Each quest completed helps you move up the leaderboard.
  • Gems
    Completing quests earns you gems, the contest’s point system. The more you collect, the closer you get to top prizes.
  • Tickets
    Earn tickets by reaching certain gem thresholds.
  • Lottery
    Tickets give you access to prize draws: even if you’re not in the top rankings, you still have a chance to win. Luck plays fair.
  • Want a head start?
    Join a Club and buy YNG to get bonus gems and speed up your progress.

Get ready to complete quests, earn gems and collect tickets. Trust us, it’s worth it: the prizes are truly incredible. But enough talk, let’s get down to business!

How does The Reveal work?

Whether you’re a veteran or a newcomer, our advice is always never to skip the rules: imagine missing out on the chance to win a Rolex because you didn’t know that gems had to be redeemed – yes, it happened.  

The Reveal is a competition comprising two simultaneous, independent contests: the Championship and the Tournaments.

  • The Championship runs from 9 December to 10 March. Final positions and corresponding prizes will be determined by the overall ranking, which must be active and valid throughout the entire competition period.
  • Tournaments: these “mini-championships” run within the main competition, providing more participants with an opportunity to win prizes. Each Tournament lasts two weeks and offers different prizes than those in the Championship. A total of six Tournaments are scheduled, taking place between 9 December and 10 March.

Important Note: Unlike the Championship, there is no ranking for Tournaments. A random draw at the conclusion of The Reveal will choose the winners. Details on the draw process will be provided soon.

Now that we understand the structure of The Reveal, it’s time to answer the questions you’re bound to be asking yourself: how do you climb the Championship rankings? How can I win the Tournaments? The answer is simple: by redeeming and collecting Gems.

Gems are the key to the competition: the more you accumulate, the more chances you have of winning. 

How do you accumulate Gems? By completing quests. 

Quests are in-app activities that allow you to earn Gems. They can be classified as daily, weekly, or permanent. Daily quests last for 24 hours, weekly quests last for seven days, and permanent quests do not expire and remain active for the duration of the competition. Some quests are cyclical, returning periodically to the app, while others are one-time events.

Please note that since timed quests (daily and weekly) have expiration limits, it is essential to manually redeem your Gems upon completing a quest. If you do not redeem them before the quest expires, you risk losing those Gems forever, as any unredeemed Gems will disappear along with the quest.

Stay vigilant: regularly check the app, complete the quests, and tap “Claim” immediately.

You will need Gems to climb the overall Championship rankings and to earn tickets. These tickets can be used to participate in draws for the prizes offered in the six Tournaments.

The tickets: in search of the lucky tickets

At the end of the competition, we will conduct a random draw to select the winners from the six tournaments. This draw will take place in the presence of a notary to ensure transparency. Each ticket will have a unique code that we will use to identify the winners.

The data is precise: the more tickets you collect, the greater your chances of being drawn.

To promote decentralisation, we have made the ticket acquisition process accessible to everyone. However, the cost of obtaining tickets will increase based on the number of Gems you have. What does this mean?

The new mechanism for collecting tickets

We created a tiered system structured as follows:

  • Tier 1 – 0 to 500 Gems accumulated: 1 Ticket for every 30 Gems 
  • Tier 2 – 501 to 1,500 Gems accumulated: 1 Ticket for every 100 Gems
  • Tier 3 – 1,501 to 3,000 Gems accumulated: 1 Ticket for every 200 Gems
  • Tier 4 – 3001 or more accumulated Gems: 1 Ticket for every 300 Gems

With this mechanism, you only need to complete a 30 Gem quest to enter Tier 1, receive a Ticket, and be eligible for that Tournament’s prizes.

Additionally, at the end of each Tournament (which occurs every two weeks), the counter and Gems are reset. For example, if you finished the first Tournament in Tier 2 with 80 Gems out of the 100 needed to unlock a Ticket, you will start the second Tournament again from Tier 1 with zero Gems.

We can now proceed to the prizes. 

The Reveal: the Revelation deserves incredible rewards

As mentioned earlier, The Reveal is divided into two competitions that run simultaneously but offer different prizes: the Championship and the Tournaments. 

Let’s take a look at the Championship prizes, awarded according to the overall ranking:

  • 1st Place: Rolex Submariner No Date (Value ~£10,000)
  • 2nd Place: KTM 125 Duke 2025 Motorcycle
  • 3rd Place: MacBook Pro 14″
  • 4th Place: 2 F1 Monza 2026 Tickets (Tribune 5 Pool)
  • 5th Place: iPhone 17 Pro
  • 6th Place: MacBook Air 13″
  • 7th Place: iPhone 17
  • 8th Place: Apple Watch Ultra 3
  • 9th Place: Google Pixel 10
  • 10th place: 1 ticket to F1 Monza 2026  (Tribune 5 Pool)
  • 11th place: Garmin Venu 4 (41 mm)
  • 12th place: £500 Amazon voucher
  • 13th place: Volagratis voucher worth £500
  • 14th place: Samsung Smart TV 50″ Crystal UHD 4K
  • 15th place: Sony WH-1000XM5 headphones (noise cancelling)
  • 16th place: Volagratis voucher worth £300
  • 17th place: £250 Amazon voucher
  • 18th place: £200 Volagratis voucher
  • 19th place: £150 Amazon voucher
  • 20th place: £100 Volagratis voucher

Not bad, right? There are six tournaments, each lasting two weeks. 

Each tournament offers different prizes, which we will reveal gradually. Starting with the first tournament, if you collect at least one ticket between December 9 and December 23, you will be entered into a draw for a chance to win two diamond tennis bracelets. 

That’s all for now. The reveal has begun—good luck, and may fortune be on your side!

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Club Essential is here: access to YNG benefits for every budget

Club Essential Coming Soon: Essential Benefits at 120 YNG

Club Essential is now available! This new 120 YNG tier is our solution: here’s why we created it and what it means for you.

If you’ve been following Young Platform for a while, you’ll have noticed that the YNG token has appreciated significantly throughout 2025, making entry into our Clubs more expensive as a result. It’s an excellent signal for the ecosystem, but it’s also a challenge.

Earlier this year, we introduced dynamic rebalancing (a mechanism that updates Club costs every month) precisely to prevent benefits from becoming completely inaccessible.

However, despite this balancing mechanism, the strong and constant interest in YNG has led to a significant increase in the Euro value required to access the Clubs since the beginning of the year.

This is fantastic news for the ecosystem’s health, but it also highlights a challenge. With the amount of YNG required to lock for Club Bronze occasionally exceeding €1,000, we realised we were missing an accessible entry point for everyone. That’s why, as of today, Club Essential is officially live.

What is Club Essential?

It’s the new gateway to our ecosystem. It’s the essential package for anyone wanting to start benefiting from the Young Platform universe with a smaller commitment.

The cost? Only 120 YNG.

This new tier is our answer for those asking for a way to get serious without having to wait until they reach the Club Bronze threshold.

The Essential benefits

What do you get by locking 120 YNG? A set of fundamental benefits designed for daily platform use:

  • 5% discount on trading fees.
  • +1% additional APY on staking.
  • 2 Smart Trades available.
  • The monthly Market Report.
  • The full version of the Quarterly Report on Young (YNG).

As for benefits in collaboration with our brand partners, they are currently in development; we are working to define specific partnerships dedicated to this new entry-level.

A sarting point, not the destination

Think of Club Essential as your first step into our world. It’s the perfect way to “test drive” the benefits with minimal commitment and understand how it works.

New features released in the future will follow the same logic: benefits will always be scaled according to the Club level. Essential guarantees basic access, but higher Clubs will always offer greater benefits.

Once you’ve tested the benefits, the natural next step will be to continue your journey and upgrade to the “OG” Clubs (Bronze, Silver, Gold, and Platinum). These tiers remain, of course, much more attractive to serious users, offering exponentially higher discounts, APY bonuses, and cashback.

How does the entry cost work?

Wondering if the 120 YNG cost will change? Yes. Remember that the YNG cost for all Clubs (including Essential) is updated on the first Tuesday of every month. Through the dynamic rebalancing mechanism, we aim to keep the Euro value of the subscription as stable as possible. If the YNG price goes up, you’ll need fewer YNG to join; if it goes down, you’ll need more. A reminder: just like with all Clubs, the 120 YNG are not spent but simply locked on the platform.

Are you ready to turn your YNG into tangible benefits?

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Introducing the new YNG/ETH Pool: more liquidity and benefits for traders

New YNG/ETH Pool on Uniswap: More Liquidity and Benefits

Discover the new YNG/ETH pool on Uniswap: more liquidity, better trades, and tax flexibility for traders. One of the pillars of the Young (YNG) economic model

At Young Platform, our mission has always been to build a robust, transparent, and accessible financial ecosystem. Our YNG token is not just a symbol, but a value driver for our community.

Today, we are announcing a significant evolution in this direction: we have created and supplied liquidity to new pools for the YNG/ETH pair on Uniswap. This initiative, which we began outlining in our last quarterly report, represents the completion of a fundamental strategic step for our YNG token, strengthening its presence and liquidity in the decentralized landscape. It is part of our broader commitment to enhancing YNG’s economic mechanism, a sustainable model that links the token’s growth to the platform’s success.

Why open new YNG/ETH pools on Uniswap?

The creation and addition of liquidity on Uniswap for the YNG/ETH pair are not mere technical integrations, but strategic moves that bring concrete benefits to our community and the token itself. Our goal is to strengthen YNG’s position in the decentralized landscape, continuing on a path we have already set. Greater liquidity offers numerous direct benefits for YNG holders and traders:

  • Greater on-chain accessibility and flexibility: A DEX like Uniswap is a pillar of the decentralized market. By increasing our presence here, we make YNG more easily tradable and accessible to a global audience.
  • Larger trades with lower slippage: With increased liquidity, the market depth for YNG/ETH improves significantly. This means traders can execute larger trades with minimal price impact (reduced slippage), a crucial advantage for both small investors and those looking to trade larger volumes.
  • Operational advantages and tax flexibility with crypto-to-crypto trades: For many users, the ability to trade directly crypto-to-crypto (YNG with ETH and vice versa) on a DEX can offer greater flexibility in managing their portfolio. As the first pair that allows YNG to be traded against another cryptocurrency (ETH) and not against stablecoins or fiat currency, it introduces an advantage from a tax management perspective: it allows for investing and divesting in the token (by swapping it with ETH) without necessarily generating a taxable event, unlike exchanging for fiat currency or stablecoins.

The Numbers Behind the Operation

This quarter, we had already taken a fundamental strategic step by starting with an initial contribution of 38 ETH. Today, we have significantly expanded our commitment: for these new liquidity pools, we have invested 92.86 ETH, for a total equivalent value of €300,000, calculated at an average cost basis of €3,230.65 per ETH.

Such a substantial investment demonstrates our deep confidence in YNG’s potential and the value we place on a highly liquid market. As proof of this liquidity share, our wallet now holds the LP (Liquidity Provider) tokens received in return, which grant us the right to a share of the fees generated by each trade. As is typical for liquidity pools, the amount of YNG and ETH locked in these addresses is constantly fluctuating based on trading activity.

The Role of Liquidity in YNG’s Economic Mechanism

Adding liquidity on DEXs is an integral part of our strategy to support the YNG token. It not only improves the trading experience but also plays a fundamental role in strengthening our economic model. As explained in our whitepaper, the YNG economic mechanism, which will become fully operational with the launch of the payment account, includes a “Buyback and Add Liquidity” logic. The fees generated by these new liquidity pools on Uniswap—which are expected to be particularly significant thanks to the large monetary value deposited within them—will directly fuel this economic model. Specifically, they will be used to buy back YNG from the market and will then be re-added to the pools or used for ecosystem growth, constantly increasing liquidity and linking the token’s value to the platform’s growth. The new Uniswap pools will therefore be a fundamental channel for implementing this mechanism, ensuring stability and depth for the token.

This is a concrete step forward for Young Platform and our community. We continue to build, step by step, a financial future where Euro and crypto coexist in a single, efficient, and advantageous ecosystem.

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Token YNG: Q3 2025 Report

Token Young (YNG): updates and news Q3 2025

 What happened? What are the next steps?

The third quarter of 2025 marked an unprecedented growth chapter for the Young Platform ecosystem, solidifying the strategic breakthrough initiated with the listing of the YNG token on Uniswap. What was still a starting point in Q2 has now become a powerful accelerator, propelling our token toward new horizons of value and visibility.

This report analyses the results of an exciting period—characterised by strong market validation and intense work on multiple fronts: from consolidating our presence in DeFi, to enhancing community‑engagement initiatives such as The Unbox, to making important regulatory progress in the lead‑up to MiCA, and participating in key industry events.

As with earlier editions (except the special Q2 2025 issue celebrating the Uniswap launch), the report is offered in two versions:

  • A public version, providing a clear overview of the milestones reached, events, and new developments of the quarter.
  • An exclusive, in‑depth version, reserved for Club members, with detailed analyses of market data, strategy, tokenomics and a sneak peek at our roadmap.

Are you ready to dive into the details of a pivotal phase in our future?

2025 to date: the market validates our vision

The July listing on Uniswap was not just a technical milestone—it marked the beginning of a new era for YNG. Entering the decentralised market triggered an extraordinary reaction, resulting in the most significant price performance in our history.

Listing on Uniswap and price action: beyond expectations

The enthusiasm generated by the listing translated into exceptional price action. From the announcement in early July, YNG’s price surged by over 300%, moving from approximately €0.20 to a new all‑time high of €0.95.

This result is not accidental, but the first tangible confirmation that our long‑term strategy is paying off. The decision to pursue organic and sustainable growth has so far proven successful. We protected the community and enabled the real value of our ecosystem to emerge healthily.

Despite this milestone, we believe that YNG’s potential remains largely untapped. A market capitalisation below €30 million still does not fully reflect the value of a domestic-market-leading company with clear ambitions for European expansion.

Ecosystem adoption is a lengthy process, grounded in daily work and user trust. Each day we strive to maximise the value we offer in return for that trust—and the results of this quarter tell us we are on the right path.

The Unbox

In Q3, we completed The Unbox, our most ambitious prize contest ever, which served as a strategic bridge to the launch of our payment account and debit card. Building on the success of the first edition, we raised the stakes in both prize value and game mechanics—and the results surpassed every expectation.

The impact on engagement was extraordinary: platform activity rose sharply, registering participation peaks comparable to the most euphoric market periods.
A key role in this success was played by the Boost Holder mechanism, which rewards those holding YNG in their wallets. By offering weekly bonus gems based on token holdings, we created a virtuous cycle that tied contest participation directly to token utility—catalysing community interest and strengthening YNG demand.

Q3 posted a highly significant economic performance, driven by effective marketing campaigns and the “The Unbox” and “The Box” contests. These results demonstrate YNG’s concrete ability to create value for the ecosystem. Specifically:

  • Trading volume on the YNG/EUR pair exceeded €17 million, with an additional €2.7 million on decentralised pools.
  • This marks an increase of approximately 8,000% compared to the total trading volume of €250,000 in Q3 2024.

Roadmap: the Young Platform Account and Card are almost here

The Unbox contest was the event that led us to launch the account. With this in mind, we are excited to announce that the next big step in our evolution is imminent: the Young Platform payment account and debit card are about to become a reality.

At this stage, the feature is in its “Family and Friends” phase — a final testing period during which our team and a group of selected users are already using it daily. This phase will end in November, after which the gradual public rollout will begin, with priority access granted to Club members and to the winners of the 2025 prize contests (The Box and The Unbox).

This project fully reflects our philosophy, which places customer satisfaction and protection at the forefront. We chose a different path from the more speculative approaches seen in our industry. Recent events—liquidations totalling $19 billion—demonstrate the risks of a system based on extreme leverage.
Our goal is not to offer tools that promise rapid riches, but to guide users toward mindful, sustainable investment. We believe investing should be a “near‑zero effort” activity, integrated into everyday life. The account and card are instruments through which we turn that vision into reality.

MiCA: our path toward full compliance

Q3 was also pivotal from a regulatory standpoint, with significant advances in our alignment with the new European crypto‑asset regulatory framework (MiCA). We reaffirm our full commitment to operate in full compliance—this regulation represents a fundamental step toward transparency and investor protection across Europe.

Although we had long since initiated all the necessary activities to comply, with the goal of submitting the final application by the deadline of June 31st, 2025, an extension of the previous term made it impossible for us to meet that date.

In any case, we are ready to obtain authorization from the Supervisory Authority by the new deadline: December 30th, 2025. Thanks to a transitional regime under Italian law, we are authorised to continue providing our services without interruption, ensuring an orderly transition into the new system. For our users, this means there will be no immediate impact—you can continue using the platform just as you always have, without any action required on your part. Functionality, services and contract terms will remain unchanged during this period.

Our legal and compliance team is already working to ensure every aspect of our operations meets the highest standards demanded by MiCA. We will maintain an open and transparent dialogue and commit to regular updates on our progress. This path is not just a regulatory obligation—it’s a reaffirmation of our responsibility to build a crypto ecosystem that is ever more secure and trustworthy.

Strategic events and the future of Young Group

Last but not least, Q3 saw the official launch of Young Group—a strategic evolution celebrated at an exclusive event on 19 September in the prestigious Palazzo Mezzanotte (home of Borsa Italiana). On this occasion, we unveiled our transition from an exchange to a financial Super App: an integrated ecosystem that will offer trading on decentralised exchanges (DEX), collateralised loans, a debit card and payment account, and the integration of perpetual futures, stocks, and ETFs. A pillar of this strategy is Fleap S.p.A., a platform authorised by CONSOB for real‑asset tokenisation, positioning us at the centre of the European digital finance arena. Our co‑CEO, Andrea Ferrero, emphasised how this evolution represents the next step in our mission. After making Bitcoin safe and accessible five years ago, our current objective is to integrate the entire on‑chain economy into our app.

Our presence has not stopped there. We were key participants in Italian Tech Week—Italy’s premier tech event—where we organised the “Crypto Night” and presented our vision to more than 1,500 innovators and tech‑enthusiasts. We have also taken our strategy global: in late October, our Chairman, Nicolas Bertrand, will bring the Young Group model to the stage at Blockchain Life 2025 in Dubai—one of the world’s leading crypto events. His philosophy, at the heart of our strategy, is clear: success in fintech comes not just from technology, but from a perfect balance of regulation, accessibility and trust. While others obsess over hash‑rate optimisation, our obsession is optimising “trust‑flow”—that stream of trust which allows millions of people to approach this world safely, translating the complexity of blockchain into a human experience.

The third quarter of 2025 has demonstrated the strength of our vision and the exponential capacity of our ecosystem. Market validation, the launch of Young Group and a more concrete product roadmap are outcomes of a strategic journey built on solid foundations and a strong community.

But what you have read so far is only the visible part of this acceleration.

We have chosen to reserve the most strategic analyses and sensitive data exclusively for our Club members—they are the true protagonists of our ecosystem and deserve an unprecedented level of transparency regarding the decisions that will shape its future.