Tag: Update

ECB meeting April 2024: interest rates unchanged

The recent drop in inflation rates in France and Italy has ignited a lively debate about possible moves by the European Central Bank (ECB), with much attention focused on the At the last ECB meeting in April 2024, the Governing Council decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged.

This decision came despite the recent drop in inflation rates in France and Italy. In fact, the picture in March sparked a lively debate on possible moves by the European Central Bank, pointing to the possibility of an early rate cut. This discussion comes against a backdrop of Europe actively trying to balance economic growth with controlling inflation, a topic of considerable interest to investors, policy-makers, and consumers.

The European panorama

The eurozone witnessed a significant reduction in inflation in 20 nations, which fell to 2.4% in March. This result exceeded analysts’ expectations, who had forecast a stable inflation rate of 2.6%  

This is consistent with the inflation trend, which has shown a steady decline since its peak of 10.6% in October 2022, driven by pandemic disruptions and geopolitical tensions, particularly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

A further decline is therefore encouraging and marks a moment of optimism, which the ECB meeting in April 2024 confirmed. 

Indeed, the Council pointed out that most measures of core inflation are showing signs of easing, with wage growth moderating gradually and companies beginning to absorb some of the increase in labour costs into their profits.

The demand-pulling effects of previous interest rate hikes, together with tight financing conditions, are helping to moderate inflation. Nevertheless, domestic price pressures remain strong, particularly in the service sector, keeping service price inflation at high levels.

Falling inflation in France

In France, inflation slowed to its lowest level since July 2021, with consumer price growth slowing to 2.3% in March from 3.2% in February, according to the national statistics agency. This was well below economists’ forecasts, which expected a figure of 2.8%, signalling a general slowdown in price increases. In particular:

• services inflation dropped to 3%
• that of energy at 3.4% 
• and a significant decrease in food inflation to 1.7 per cent, with fresh food prices falling by 3.9 per cent year-on-year.

Month-on-month inflation data further confirmed the trend, slowing from 0.9% to 0.3%, indicating a considerable easing of inflationary pressures in the eurozone’s second-largest economy.

Falling inflation in Italy

Italy also reported a lower-than-expected inflation rate for March, with consumer prices rising by 1.3% year-on-year, against forecasts of 1.5%. This moderation was attributed to the end of seasonal clothing sales and price increases in transport services, along with a slowdown in falling energy costs.

ECB rate cut decisions

The interest rates on the main refinancing instruments, the marginal lending facility and deposits will remain fixed at 4.50 %, 4.75 % and 4.00 % respectively. 

Furthermore, according to statements given at the press conference following the meeting, the Council believes that inflation levels in the coming months will still fluctuate around current levels. The decline in inflation will not be linear and will therefore have to be assessed on a case-by-case basis. In all likelihood, the target level of 2% will only be reached next year. 

François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in June, provided inflation continues to fall faster than expected and the economy remains stagnant. He emphasised the importance of not overburdening economic activity by maintaining a tight monetary policy for a prolonged period.

Speaking at a financial event in Barcelona, Pablo Hernández de Cos outlined a scenario where June could see the start of interest rate cuts by the ECB. As Governor of the Bank of Spain, De Cos’ outlook carries significant weight, highlighting a cautious but optimistic approach to the Eurozone economy.

Wage growth and inflation

Despite encouraging signs of cooling inflation, ECB monetary policymakers remain

Despite encouraging signs of cooling inflation, the ECB’s monetary policymakers remain cautious, particularly as wage growth gradually moderates. Companies are starting to absorb some of the increase in labour costs with their profit margins. 

With service sector inflation down only slightly to an annual pace of 3.9% in February, the central bank is taking a measured approach, probably waiting until June to reassess wage pressures and their potential to bring inflation closer to the target.

Market expectations and ECB position

Analysts believe that the biggest complication could come if the US Federal Reserve delays its policy easing to keep up the fight against inflation. For this reason, they believe the ECB will not cut rates before its big sister. 

To the supporters of this interpretation, ECB President Christine Lagarde replies: ‘We are data-dependent, not Fed-dependent’. She adds, ‘We do not speculate what other central banks might do. (…) Different factors drive inflation in the US and the Eurozone. (…) It cannot be assumed that Eurozone inflation will mirror US inflation.”

After the ECB decision, money markets were pricing about a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in June, compared to about an 80% chance earlier on Thursday.

Experts such as Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, suggest that the March inflation data, combined with upcoming information on wage growth and ECB staff forecasts for GDP and inflation, are tilting the narrative towards a first rate cut in June. Kamil Kovar of Moody’s Analytics interprets the latest data as a significant step towards defeating inflation, advocating up to five rate cuts this year.

Perspectives

The ECB’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and to continue with a measured monetary policy reflects a careful assessment of current economic conditions and the inflation outlook. By committing to a flexible and data-driven approach, the ECB underlines its determination to ensure lasting price stability by balancing the needs for economic growth with its responsibility to keep inflation under control. The ECB’s future moves.will be awaited with great interest, as Europe navigates through complex economic challenges, seeking to ensure a sustainable recovery and long-term stability.

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Experts’ forecasts for the euro-dollar 2024 exchange rate: which currency will be stronger? 

What are the forecasts for the EUR/USD exchange rate in 2024? As always, experts in the currency market and beyond closely monitor the EUR/USD exchange rate. Every movement of the quotation is constantly analysed, as is the continuous strengthening and weakening of one currency against another. For this reason, and because of their interest in the pair, experts make their forecasts on the EUR/USD exchange rate every year. 

Euro-dollar exchange rate: forecast 2024

Before analysing the forecasts on the euro-dollar exchange rate, it is necessary to make a few theoretical clarifications. EUR/USD is the abbreviation for the euro-dollar exchange rate, i.e. the rate that indicates how many dollars are needed to buy one euro. In this currency pair, the euro is the ‘base currency’, and the dollar is the ‘quoted currency’. If, for example, the rate is 1.5, it means that $1.5 corresponds to 1 euro.

Forex investors study the euro-dollar exchange rate, generally used to calculate a currency’s strength. This metric is influenced by central bank monetary policies, such as interest rate rises, and macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation or the bond yield spread between the US and Germany. Specifically, when a central bank raises interest rates, money in circulation decreases, increasing its value.

What do the major investment banks’ forecasts on the euro-dollar exchange rate for 2024 tell us? In general, is the euro expected to continue gaining ground against the dollar, or will we see the opposite scenario?

If you are also interested in digital currencies, Young Platform allows you to check the Euro Bitcoin exchange rate and the rates of the best cryptos on the market. 

Morgan Stanley’s forecasts

According to Morgan Stanley analysts, unlike in 2023, USD will regain lost ground against EUR in 2024.

Their forecast on the euro-dollar exchange rate sees the pair reaching 1 in the coming months. Therefore, the euro’s descent that began at the end of November 2023 will not stop. 

Bank of America and ING

On the other hand, Bank of America (BoA) expects a still relatively strong euro in 2024. The exchange rate estimate is 1.10 and 1.15 in 2024. Several elements could alter these assumptions, but the main one is related to interest rates. BoA analysts think that the Fed’s rate cut, which will take place, again according to them, from June 2024 onwards, will undermine the strength of the dollar. The lower the rates, the more liquidity there should be in the markets, which would favour investments in riskier assets and a drop in demand for the US currency.   

JPMorgan

JPMorgan’s euro-dollar exchange rate forecast from October begins with the realization that the dollar could return strong in 2024 after the crash of 2022/2023.  

The main cause is the war in the Middle East and the possible increase in energy prices. JP Morgan’s forecast for 2024 has a precise price target: 1.00 in the first months of the year. This would translate into a 7% increase in the dollar’s value. 

ABN AMRO Bank

ABN AMRO Bank economists, on the other hand, raised their forecasts for the euro-dollar exchange rate. The bank expects the Federal Reserve and the ECB to start lowering interest rates with the arrival of the New Year. This hypothetical situation would not favour either currency. The exchange rate is expected to settle at 1.05 at the beginning of the year and reach a high of 1.10 in the final quarter. 

Who are the richest men in the world in 2023? Has Elon Musk retained his supremacy, or has another billionaire undermined him? 

What is the ranking of the richest men in the world in 2023? This ranking is calculated according to net worth, which is the difference between the total value of the goods or assets owned, e.g., cash, investments, real estate, and companies, and the amount of liabilities, especially debts and mortgages.

Forbes compiles the best-known ranking of the world’s richest men annually. The one compiled by the US magazine is one of many. However, there is also the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, which returns the value of the possessions of the world’s wealthiest billionaires in real-time and, for this reason, may change in the coming months.

Although these two rankings show slightly different values in terms of assets, they present virtually the same ranking of the world’s richest men, except for the first position. Discover the 2023 ranking in this article. 

10. Steve Ballmer

In tenth place in the ranking of the world’s richest men is the former CEO of Microsoft, Steve Ballmer. Ballmer was one of the tech company’s first employees; he joined the company founded by Bill Gates in 1980. 

Over the years, he held several key roles within Microsoft, including president from 1998 to 2000. After leaving the company in 2014, he owned the Los Angeles Clippers National Basketball Association (NBA) team. His wealth is approximately $80.7 billion.

9. Mukesh Ambani

Mukesh Ambani is the chairman of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), one of India’s largest companies. RIL manufactures petroleum and petrochemical products, fibres and materials for the textile industry. Its assets are USD 83.4 billion.

8. Carlos Slim Helu

Carlos Slim Helu, a Mexican entrepreneur and philanthropist, is ranked eighth among the 10 richest men in the world. Slim Helu is the president of Grupo Carso, an aggregation of companies operating in the telecommunications, construction, and energy sectors. He owns assets worth USD 93 billion.

7. Micheal Bloomberg

Michael Bloomberg is an American entrepreneur, politician, philanthropist, and activist. He founded Bloomberg LP and was the mayor of New York City for three consecutive terms, from 2002 to 2013. He was also a candidate in the Democratic Party primaries for the US presidential election in 2020. His wealth is approximately $94.5 billion.

6. Bill Gates

The sixth in the ranking of the world’s richest men needs no introduction. The founder of Microsoft has led this ranking for several years, continuously from 1995 to 2009 and in 2014 and 2015. His wealth since 2009 has grown every year. According to Forbes, it is around 104 billion dollars, while according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, it is 114 billion.

5. Warren Buffett

Also in fifth position in the ranking of the world’s richest men is a well-known figure who has been the leader in this ranking twice. Warren Buffet is considered by many to be the best investor ever. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, is the sixth largest company on the planet, with a market capitalisation of $713 billion. The total value of Buffet’s assets is $106 billion according to Forbes and $112 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

4. Larry Ellison

Larry Ellison is a co-founder and former CEO of Oracle, one of the world’s largest software companies. According to Forbes, his wealth is approximately USD 107 billion.

3. Jeff Bezos

The bottom step of the podium of the ranking of the world’s richest men is occupied by the founder and former CEO of Amazon, Jeff Bezos. He left the world’s fifth-largest company in 2021 to devote himself to philanthropy and other projects, such as his charitable fund, to combat climate change and promote environmental sustainability. Bezos has been the richest man in the world on four occasions: in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, and his wealth in 2023 is $14 billion.

2. Elon Musk

Silver medal for South African tycoon Elon Musk. Who has recently knocked off the top step of the podium? The new chairman of Twitter, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, and co-founder of Open AI, the company is developing Chat GPT. 

He was the richest man in the world in 2021 and 2022 and is now vying for the top spot with the owner of the LVMH group. Elon Musk’s wealth of around $188 billion is undergoing significant fluctuations mainly due to the controversial deal to buy Twitter.

1. Bernard Arnault

So, who is the wealthiest individual on the planet? Forbes’ rankings of the world’s richest men and the Bloomberg Billionaires Index agree the answer is: Bernard Arnault. 

The Frenchman is chairman and CEO of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, the world’s largest conglomerate of luxury goods companies, which includes Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, Fendi, Moët & Chandon and Dom Pèrignon. Bernard Arnault’s assets are approximately $218 billion.

And in Italy?

Who is the richest man in Italy? In our country, the ranking has remained unchanged from last year. In first place is still Giovanni Ferrero, president and CEO of the group owned by the Piedmontese company, who also occupies the 27th position in the ranking of the richest men in the world. In second and third place are Luxottica’s Leonardo Del Vecchio and fashion designer Giorgio Armani.

Find out which cents are rare. Many of them have a value you might not expect! Here are all the curiosities you need to know

Rare cents represent a topic of considerable interest for numismatic enthusiasts and the merely curious. 

Very often, it happens that you rummage through the drawers of old houses or even old clothes and come across some rare coins (here is a complete list of the most exceptional ones) that lead you to wonder not only if their value is higher than that of classic specimens, but also how to recognise them. 

Rare Cents: Introduction to Cuts

As we all know, 2002 was the year in which Italian and European citizens witnessed a revolution: national currencies were replaced by the euro. Euro coins are now available in different denominations: 

• 2 euros (€2.00)
• 1 euro (€1.00)
• 50 cents (€0.50)
• 20 cents (€0.20)
• 10 cents (€0.10)
• 5 cents (€0.05)
• 2 cents (€0.02)
• 1 cent (€0.01)

We will focus our attention on the smaller denominations in this article. In circulation, different types of rare cents have a higher or lower value depending on the case.

50 cents rare 

Among the most sought-after small denominations of the single currency throughout Europe are certainly the rare 50 centimes. The value of which fluctuates depending on the individual specimens, which, by the way, are numerous, so in this article, we will focus only on the best known. 

Among them, how can we not mention the 50 cents of 2007? Most of the 50-cent coins in circulation today date back to 2002. The 50 cents of 2007, on the other hand, are scarce to find, although 4,994,490 examples were minted (data from moneterare.net). The reason for this difficulty in finding the coin despite its high mintage is still unclear, but what is clear is certainly its value: from €2 to €10 if in Brilliant Uncirculated condition (without signs of circulation).

Then there are the 50 Cent Rare Malta, especially those of 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2021. Their value here, too, could be higher, between EUR 1.5 and 2.5 in BU. 

With the exclusion of the 2002-2003 vintages, the 50 Cent Rare Monaco are also considered attractive by numismatic experts, and their value starts to rise from EUR 10 to EUR 50. 

For the 50 Centesimi Rari Vaticano, divided into 6 series, one can go as high as €55, while those of Portugal 2007 are around €50.

20 centimes rare

Generally speaking, 20-centimes are rare if they obviously have peculiarities, such as minting errors or metal surpluses. In such cases, their value ranges from 3.25 to 55 euros. On the other hand, the few specimens stolen before the withdrawal of the 20-cent coin with the 1999 minting year issued in 2002 have no value. 

10 cents rare

Among the most exciting coins are those of 2008 Malta, worth EUR 1 in Brilliant Uncirculated, or even those minted in 2002, whose manufacturing errors led to quotations from EUR 236 to EUR 288.

5 cents rare

In the case of the 5, additional clarifications and distinctions have to be made based on the individual specimen. All quotations below are in Brilliant Uncirculated: 

• 5 cents of 2002 from Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Spain: 1€
• 5 cents 2008 of Malta with Mnajdra temple engraving: 1€
• 5 Centesimi 2003 of San Marino: 10€
• 5 cents 2002 of the Vatican Mint: 40€

1 cent rare

The rarest 1 cent in existence today is the one that resulted from a mistake: the coin in question has the engraving only on the reverse side and lacks the year of minting. Its value? About 550€ in BU. 

Other specimens, however, have much lower quotations. The 2004 rare 1 cent from Greece, Luxembourg and the Netherlands is worth €1, while that of San Marino 2003 is around €10. The 1999 coin of the Netherlands is worth around €1.20, while the Maltese coin with the image of the temple of Mnajdra is worth €2.

Not to be forgotten is the rare 1-cent Mole Antonelliana, on which the image of the 2-cent coin was minted by mistake. Its value is around 2,500€/3000€. 

Rare Cents and Bitcoin

Obviously, there are many more rare cents in circulation than those described in this article. What is clear, however, is that rarity is a fascinating aspect not only for experts in the field. The rarer a good or asset is, the more its value tends to increase. A concept that can also be found in the cryptocurrency sector is that bitcoins, for instance, are considered rare because their protocol provides a maximum supply limited to 21 million coins. 

This limit is designed to create a form of inherent rarity in the system. Unlike traditional currencies, which can be printed in unlimited quantities, the amount of Bitcoins in circulation is limited, affecting their perception as a rare and valuable resource. This is why many choose to buy when the price of BTC is lower (as in the current market phase), to get the crypto by paying less than those who will instead wait for the market to rise. Rare pennies and Bitcoin, in short, have more in common than one might imagine!

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What are rare coins? Are they worth a fortune? Here’s what they are and where to sell euros, lira and precious foreign coins

Rare coins are a very lucrative area of collecting. Numismatic enthusiasts are always on the lookout for the most valuable specimens. But also, for those out of the loop, it is interesting to find out which coins are the rarest; maybe a treasure is hiding in some abandoned drawer! Here are the rarest 2 and 1 euro, lira and foreign coins and where to sell them. 

Rare Coins: How to understand which ones have value

How do we know which coins are rare? In the case of euros, a coin can become rare, and therefore collectable, due to several factors: 

1. Minting errors: the best-known case is the Italian 1-cent coin of 2002 that was printed with the wrong monument on the reverse. Instead of Castel Del Monte, this coin was minted with the Mole Antonelliana (depicted on the 2 cents instead). This error, discovered too late when the coins had already been issued, makes the coin extremely rare. Its value ranges from EUR 2,500 upwards. 

2. Mode of issue: some rare coins are such because the mode of distribution has made them difficult to trace. This is the case with Finland’s 2 euro commemorative coins (2004). These coins were not bundled together but scattered in the normal 2-euro ‘rolls’, like the Chocolate Factory’s golden tickets. 

3. The issuing state: the country that distributes the coins can also make them rare, affecting quantity and availability. Tiny Eurozone states, such as Andorra, issue them in limited numbers. Some coins are rare because they are the first issued by a country that chooses to adopt a single currency, as was the case with Slovenia in 2007. 

4. Commemorative coins: in the case of euros, rare commemorative coins can only be 2-euro coins (this is specified by the ECB, which, among other things, approves the maximum volume of commemorative pieces that each State can issue each year). These are more easily found in circulation and become rare only in some instances we will see later.  

To understand which coins are rare, the criterion of rarity applies, i.e., the fewer specimens there are, the more valuable they are. This principle applies especially to rare antique coins that are no longer produced. It must also be specified that coins become more valuable if their state of preservation is close to the original one (‘Brilliant Uncirculated’). 

Rare 2 euro coins

Let’s see which are the rarest 2-euro coins in circulation. This category mainly includes commemorative coins. Here are the most valuable ones: 

• Finland 2004

This rare coin has a value of about 50 Euros; as anticipated, it is valuable because it is challenging to find. It depicts shoots growing upwards from a pillar, the first representing the new countries that joined the European Union, while the pillar is the institution itself. 

• Principality of Monaco 2007

These are the rare 2 Euros of Grace Kelly, issued on the 25th anniversary of her death. This coin is precious because only 2,000 were minted. It has a value of around €2,000. 

• Vatican City 2005

Rare 2-euro coins include the one issued in 2005 to celebrate World Youth Day in Cologne: This counts 100,000 examples, and its value is around €300. 

• San Marino 2004

This rare 2-euro coin has 110,000 units worth between 100 and 300 euros. It depicts Bartolomeo Borghesi, an Italian historian. 

• France 2019

Ranging in value from EUR 40 to EUR 100, there are rare 2-euro coins from France featuring characters from René Goscinny’s Asterix and Obelix comics. 

• Slovenia 2007

Slovenia has issued 400,000 rare 2-euro coins to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Treaties of Rome that led to the birth of the European Union. These are worth around €50. All Eurozone states minted this coin with the same image (an open book and the inscription ‘Europe’), only the inscription is in the various national languages.

Rare 2-euro non-commemorative coins, i.e. those issued routinely by Central Banks, include those of Greece 2011 (15,000), Greece 2007 (20,000), Greece 2004 (30,000), Cyprus 2013 (90,000), Cyprus 2015 (100,000).

Rare 1 euro coins

If you are looking for rare 1 euro coins, you have to consider that there are no celebratory specimens as in the case of the 2 euro. Rarity consists only of the limited edition and the year of issue. Let’s look at some examples. 

• Andorra 2018: circulation 20,000 
• Austria 2012: print run 60,000 
• Belgium 2013: circulation 25,500
• Cyprus 2013: circulation 100,000
• Estonia 2016: circulation 20,000
• Finland 2018: print run 50,000
• France 2015: circulation 35,500
• Germany 2018: circulation 42,625
• Greece 2017: circulation 16,200
• Ireland 2016: circulation 89,000
• Latvia 2018: circulation 7,000
• Lithuania 2018: print run 5,000
• Luxembourg 2018: circulation 63,000
• Malta 2014: circulation 25,000
• Principality of Monaco 2011: circulation 7,000
• Holland 2017: circulation 47,017
• Portugal 2012: circulation 44,000
• Republic of San Marino 2016: circulation 30,400
• Slovakia 2018: circulation 17,300
• Slovenia 2018: circulation 8,750
• Vatican City 2005: print run 60,000

Rare coins: lire

Some rare coins are now out of use, like our old lire. Before rummaging through grandma’s drawers, here’s a list of those worth a fortune! 

• 10 lire of 1947: depicting an olive branch and a winged horse, they can be worth up to 4,000 euros if in good condition.
• 2 Lira 1947: this coin was minted on the occasion of the signing of the peace treaty with the victorious states of the Second World War on 10 February 1947. It depicts an ear of wheat and a farmer worth about EUR 1,800. 
• 1 lira of 1947: This rare coin depicts an orange branch and a woman with a crown of spikes. It is one of the rarest pieces, with a value of over 1,500 euros. 
• 50 lire of 1958: depicting the god Vulcan working with metal and the inscription ‘Repvbblica italiana’, it was minted in 800,000 examples. It is worth up to 2,000 euros. 

Generally speaking, the most valuable lire are those minted between the 1940s and 1950s; to be sure of their value, it is necessary to rely on expert advice. 

The world’s rarest coins 

Even among foreigners, there are rare coins worth staggering sums: 

• Flowing Hair Silver Dollar: this is a 1794 dollar that has reached a valuation of $10 million. It is valuable because it was the first coin the US federal government issued in the first mint in Philadelphia. 
• Double Eagle: another dollar with an incredible history. In 1933, President Roosevelt ordered the destruction of the gold series of that year, which had 445,000 units. Ten units, however, were not disposed of by the Secret Service over the years, but managed to track down all of them. The last one was owned by King Farouk of Egypt and was auctioned for $7.6 million. 
• Brasher Doubloon: this coin was privately minted in 1787 by goldsmith Ephraim Brasher. It was purchased in 2011 for $7.4 million.
• Edward III: There are only an estimated three copies of this ancient coin worldwide; one sold for $6.8 million. It was a gold coin used between 1343 and 1344. 
• Gold Dinar: an ancient gold coin issued by an Arab caliph of the Umayyad dynasty around 700. The Gold Dinar is made of 4.75 grams of gold and was sold in 2011 for $6 million. 
• Liberty Head Nickel: a 1913 US 5-cent coin minted ‘clandestinely’. There are only five examples globally, three of which are privately owned. In 2018, one was sold for $4.5 million. 
• Queen Elizabeth II: A gold pound sold at auction for $4 million, depicting Queen Elizabeth II Queen from 1953 to 2022. 
• Queller’s dollar is an 1835 silver dollar from the Queller’s collection, sold in 2008 for $3.7 million. 

Rare Coins: Where to Sell?

After this overview, the question arises: Where do you buy or sell rare coins? If you are an expert and are familiar with the ones you have in your hands, getting by might be the best solution, which is why it is helpful to frequent flea markets or specialised online marketplaces. Copies can also be found on eBay, where you should beware of scams. If, on the other hand, you are wondering where to sell rare coins as a beginner, the best choice is to rely on professionals such as numismatic shops or auction houses, which are also online (such as Catawiki).

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