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USA Inflation: Today’s CPI Data

US CPI Data Today: Inflation Results & Market Impact

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has just been released: what it means for the markets

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been released, the data used to estimate inflation in the United States of America. The fate of the markets hinges on US inflation and, therefore, on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published on March 11. In this article, we will find out what the CPI is, why it is important, and analyze the latest available data.

CPI meaning

Technically, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is a fundamental economic indicator that measures how much the prices of everyday goods and services have changed. In other words, the CPI tells us how much it costs to live today compared to the past.

The CPI is calculated by collecting price data on a representative “basket” of goods and services that consumers typically purchase. This basket includes a variety of products, such as food, clothing, housing, transportation, education, healthcare, and other common goods and services. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects prices every month in 75 urban areas and compares them with those of the previous period.

Why is it important?

The CPI is used to measure inflation, meaning how much the cost of living increases. If the CPI goes up, it means prices are rising and that, on average, one has to spend more to live like they did before.

Bitcoin and CPI: how are they connected?

The Consumer Price Index is one of the main indicators that the members of the Federal Reserve take into consideration when they have to make choices regarding monetary policy: generally, when inflation drops, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is more comfortable cutting rates, and vice versa.

Currently, however, analysts believe that the Fed Chairman and the Board of Governors presiding over the FOMC are inclined to keep rates steady for the upcoming meetings as well, in order to assess the impact of the cuts made during 2025.

In any case, the CPI remains a fundamental tool for understanding the inflation trend and trying to predict the behavior of the American central bank: if you’re interested in the topic, you can find all the dates for 2026 in our article on the Fed’s meeting schedule.

The last time it happened

The latest CPI for February came in lower than forecasts and the previous month’s CPI: the data, consistent with what was written above, did not influence the Fed’s choices, which, as we anticipated, left rates at December levels.

So, how did today’s CPI turn out?

February 2026 CPI: data analysis

On March 11, 2026, the BLS published the report on price changes for US consumers. According to the report, the monthly CPI (MoM) increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, as did the year-over-year CPI (YoY), growing by 2.4% but unchanged compared to February’s measurements. This data is quite positive, as year-over-year inflation seems stable and remains close to the FED’s target of 2%. But April’s CPI will definitely be higher: with the war involving the United States, Israel, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, energy prices have skyrocketed and will impact the cost of living. From

What do these numbers mean?

The fact that the CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year means that inflation seems to have entered a stabilization phase: the readings are practically identical to those of the previous month. In February, in fact, the BLS report showed a 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY increase.

What will the Fed decide regarding interest rates at the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC? On the FedWatch Tool, the premier instrument for these kinds of forecasts, the odds of a 25 basis point cut are still close to zero, specifically at 0.8% – with No Change at 99.2%.

Here is how the CPI is tracking in 2026:

March 2026: 2.4% (forecast 2.4%)
February 2026: 2.4% (forecast 2.5%)
January 2026: 2.6% (forecast 2.7%)

2025 Data:

December 2025: 2.7% (forecast 3.1%)
October 2025: 3% (forecast 3.1%)
September 2025: 2.9% (forecast 2.9%)
August 2025: 2.7% (forecast 2.7%)
July 2025: 2.7% (forecast 2.7%)
June 2025: 2.4% (forecast 2.5%)
May 2025: 2.3% (forecast 2.4%)
April 2025: 2.4% (forecast 2.5%)
March 2025: 2.8% (forecast 2.9%)
February 2025: 3% (forecast 2.9%)
January 2025: 2.9% (forecast 2.9%)

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What is the Poorest Country in the World? Ranking of the Poorest Countries in 2024

The Poorest Countries in the World: Updated Ranking

Discover the ranking of the poorest countries in the world for 2024 based on GDP per capita. Explore the challenges and conditions these nations face.

One of the most common metrics used to examine the poorest countries in the world is GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita. This figure represents the average economic output per person in a given country and is a crucial indicator of financial health. 

A low GDP per capita often correlates with challenging living conditions characterised by fragile economies, high unemployment rates, and inadequate infrastructure. Moreover, these nations frequently grapple with internal conflicts and political instability, further hindering their development.

However, GDP per capita alone does not fully capture the economic well-being of a country’s citizens, as it overlooks disparities in the cost of living. GDP,  combined with issues such as low education levels, endemic diseases, and limited access to healthcare, these factors create environments where economic development is nearly impossible, leading to harsh living conditions. Below, we delve into the poorest countries in the world as of 2024 and the primary issues they face.

You might be interested in The Richest Countries in the World

The poorest countries in the world: 2024 ranking

Per stimare quali sono i paesi più poveri del mondo di solito ci si basa sui dati forniti dal Fondo Monetario Internazionale (FMI).

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The following ranking of the poorest countries is based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In many of these countries, access to essential financial services is minimal, with many citizens turning to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a new way to manage their money, often as their only viable option.

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1. Sudan del Sud

GDP per Capita: ~$450

South Sudan, the world’s poorest country, gained independence in 2011 but has been plagued by civil conflicts that have hindered economic and social development. Despite its vast oil reserves, South Sudan suffers from the “resource curse,” where wealth in natural resources leads to corruption, division, and conflict instead of prosperity.

2. Burundi

GDP per Capita: ~$900

Unlike South Sudan, Burundi lacks significant natural resources. The civil war that ended in 2005 left the country in dire straits, with most of its population dependent on subsistence agriculture. Less than 5% of the population has access to electricity, and inflation (an average of 14%, but it touched 30% in 2023) remains a significant issue, contributing to the erosion of living standards.

3. Central African Republic (CAR)

GDP per Capita: ~$500

The CAR is rich in natural resources like gold, oil, uranium, and diamonds, yet its people remain among the poorest globally. Since its first democratic election in 2016, the country has seen some growth, driven by timber, agriculture, and the diamond trade. However, much of the nation remains under the control of armed groups, hindering development. Growth in recent years has shown a moderate recovery, driven by the lumber industry, recovery in the agricultural sector, and partial recovery in the diamond trade.

4. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) 

GDP per Capita: ~$1,500

Since gaining independence from Belgium in 1960, the DRC has experienced political instability and violence. Despite its vast mineral wealth and potential to become one of Africa’s wealthiest countries, about 65% of the population lives on less than $2.15 a day. The country has a population of 100 million, with the average per capita income hovering around $1,500 annually. However, according to the World Bank, the DRC has the resources and potential to become one of Africa’s richest countries and a growth engine for the entire continent. It is currently the world’s largest producer of cobalt and the leading copper exporter in Africa, two essential elements for the electric vehicle market.

5. Mozambique

GDP per Capita: ~$1,200

While rich in resources and strategically located, Mozambique continues to face poverty due to political instability and adverse climatic conditions. Despite these challenges, the IMF projects strong economic growth driven by the energy sector. To make matters worse, the gas-rich northern part of the country has been hit by attacks by Islamic insurgent groups since 2017. Despite this, according to the IMF, the economy remains booming: it is projected to grow by 5% in 2024 and 2025, with prospects for double-digit growth in the second half of the 2020s.

6. Niger

GDP per Capita: ~$500

Niger is heavily threatened by desertification, with 80% of its territory covered by the Sahara Desert. The rapid population growth outpaces agricultural production, worsening food insecurity. Additionally, ongoing conflicts with Boko Haram exacerbate the nation’s instability.

In 2021, with the election of the new president Mohamed Bazoum, a former teacher and interior minister, Niger experienced its first democratic transition of power and seemed poised for significant change. However, in the summer of 2023, Bazoum was captured by some members of his presidential guard, and since then, a military junta has ruled the country.

7. Malawi

GDP per Capita: ~$600

Malawi is seventh on the list of the poorest countries in the world. Its economy, heavily dependent on agriculture, is vulnerable to climate change and food insecurity. The government faces a severe economic crisis marked by fuel shortages, rising food prices, and currency devaluation.

8. Liberia

GDP per Capita: ~$600

Liberia, Africa’s oldest republic, has been among the world’s poorest nations for years. However, Joseph Boakai’s election in 2023 offers some hope for economic recovery, with growth projected to reach 5.3% in 2024.

9. Madagascar

GDP per Capita: ~$450

Since gaining independence from France in 1960, Madagascar has experienced political instability, contested elections, and slow economic growth. Despite high poverty rates and an inflation rate of nearly 8%, the current government under Andry Rajoelina, reelected in 2023, continues to struggle with widespread poverty.

How limited mobility hinders economic growth in Africa’s poorest countries

Limited mobility has a profound impact on economic growth, particularly for African countries that already struggle with poverty. According to research by Prof. Mehari Taddele Maru, African nations top the list of Schengen visa rejections, with around 30% of African applicants being denied compared to just 10% worldwide. 

This stark disparity highlights how restricted access to international travel further marginalizes the poorest countries, making it harder for individuals to seek better opportunities, engage in global trade, or even gain exposure to new skills and ideas. 

The high rejection rates are particularly pronounced in the poorest African countries, creating a vicious cycle where limited mobility exacerbates economic stagnation. With the ability to move freely, these nations can overcome significant barriers to growth, as their citizens can participate in the global economy, seek education abroad, or build international business connections.

You might be interested in The Most Powerful Passport: 2024 Global Rankings.

Conclusion

The ranking of the poorest countries in the world highlights the severe economic challenges many nations face. However, despite these difficulties, there is potential for future growth in these countries, with natural and human resources that, if properly harnessed, could significantly improve living conditions. Stay tuned for more insights if you’re interested in learning more about these countries’ global economic challenges and development efforts.

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ECB Rates: Impact of the Cut on Markets and the Economy

ecb rates

The ECB Cuts Rates for the First Time Since 2019

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a rate cut on Thursday, 6 June, lowering the deposit rate from 4% to 3.75%, the benchmark rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, and the marginal lending rate from 4.75% to 4.50%. This hasn’t happened since 2019.

This decision was made despite inflation forecasts being revised upwards, indicating a slow and irregular path for rate reductions.

Future Interest Rate Decisions

Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, emphasized that future rate decisions will be made “meeting by meeting” and warned of a bumpy path ahead. She added: “Today’s rate cut reflects the confidence we have in the growth path, but to continue this process, we must wait for analyses to confirm that we are in economic recovery.”

Despite the rate cut, the ECB provided no precise guidance on future moves, stressing that inflationary pressures remain high. Updated forecasts show average inflation of 2.5% for 2024, 2.2% for 2025, and 1.9% for 2026.

Impact on the Labour Market and Economy

The ECB revised its growth forecasts for 2024 upwards, now estimated at 0.9% compared to the 0.6% predicted in March. However, prospects for 2025 were slightly reduced to 1.4%, while those for 2026 remain unchanged at 1.6%. This scenario indicates moderate economic growth in the coming years, with inflation likely to stay above the 2% target until 2025.

Lagarde indicated that wage growth, although still high, is expected to slow down during the year, helping to reduce inflationary pressures. However, rate cuts are likely to slow, with inflation remaining above the ECB’s target for most of 2025. This implies that the ECB will closely monitor various economic indicators to determine future monetary policy.

Consequences of the ECB Rate Cut

The ECB’s rate cut will have several consequences:

  • Reduction in credit costs: Households and businesses will benefit from lower interest rates on loans, thus promoting access to credit and stimulating consumption and investment.
  • Impact on savers: Lower interest rates may penalise savers, reducing returns on bank deposits and government bonds.
  • Stimulus to economic growth: Lower borrowing costs should encourage spending and investment, supporting economic growth. However, the effectiveness of this measure will also depend on global economic conditions and domestic demand.
  • Inflation and wages: The rate cut could influence inflation and wage dynamics. Although Lagarde has signalled that wage growth will slow, inflation may remain high in the short term, further complicating the ECB’s future decisions.

Market Reactions

Financial markets had anticipated the rate cut, pricing in a 25 basis point downward move. Following the rate cut announcement, eurozone government bond yields rose significantly. In particular, the 10-year German bond yield increased by nearly 8 basis points to 2.573%, while the 2-year bond yield rose by just under 6 basis points to 3.033%. Yields on Italian and Spanish 10-year government bonds also rose by 9 and 7 basis points, respectively, to 3.893% and 3.299%.

International Comparison

Despite starting to raise rates later than other central banks, the ECB is now leading with the June cut. The US Federal Reserve, for instance, is still grappling with higher inflation. Other countries like Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland have already started to reduce interest rates in the current cycle.

The ECB has clarified that future moves will depend on economic data and that there is no predetermined path for further rate cuts. With inflation still above target and moderate economic growth, the future of European monetary policy remains uncertain, requiring constant attention and careful assessment of all variables at play.

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FED: Interest Rate Predictions for the June 2024 Meeting

FED

What is the FED’s stance on cutting interest rates? Here are analysts’ predictions.

The Federal Reserve (FED) is the central bank of the United States and plays a crucial role in the global financial system. Economists, analysts, and investors worldwide closely monitor every decision it makes, especially regarding interest rates.

But what can we expect from the upcoming FED meeting scheduled for 11-12 June 2024? Analysts predict that the FED will keep interest rates unchanged, but some signals could anticipate future cuts by the end of the year.

What is the FED, and why is it important?

The Federal Reserve, or FED, is the institution that serves as the central bank of the United States. Its role is to stabilise the economy through the management of money and interest rates. Its main functions are controlling inflation, regulating the banking system, and promoting economic stability. The interest rates set by the FED influence the cost of money, i.e., how much it costs to borrow or how much you earn by saving.

The current interest rate situation

FED interest rates have been steady between 5.25% and 5.5% since July 2023. After a year of stability, the FED decided not to increase rates further despite mixed signals on inflation. According to FED Governor Christopher Waller, some inflation reports in the early months of 2024 temporarily cooled expectations of a rate cut. Still, recent consumer price index (CPI) data suggest that inflation is not accelerating.

Analysts’ predictions for the FED June meeting

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the June meeting is just 0.1%. The forecasting site Kalshi also indicates a 99% probability that rates will remain unchanged. However, analysts predict the FED might signal potential rate cuts later in 2024. During the meeting, the “Summary of Economic Projections” will be updated, where monetary policymakers will outline their forecasts for the end of the year.

Impacts on everyday life

The FED’s decisions on interest rates have a direct impact on people’s daily lives. Higher interest rates mean more expensive loans for homes, cars, and businesses and higher returns for savers. Conversely, lower rates make loans cheaper but reduce earnings on savings. For example, 30-year mortgage rates reached an annual high of 7.79% in 2023, then fell to 7.03% by the end of May 2024.

When might a rate cut occur?

According to bond markets, the first rate cut could happen in September 2024, with a 50% probability. A second cut might follow in December. However, these predictions are subject to rapid changes in response to economic data. For example, there is still a 15% probability that there will be no cuts in 2024.

The June FED meeting is highly anticipated, but it is unlikely to bring immediate changes in interest rates. All eyes are on the updated economic projections and the statements from FED Chairman Jerome Powell. The possibility of rate cuts during 2024 will depend on the strength of the labour market and progress in controlling inflation.

The FED’s decisions will continue to have a significant impact on the global economy and the daily lives of millions of people. Monitoring these decisions helps us better understand economic dynamics and make more informed financial decisions.

The price forecasts in this article are based on sources believed to be reliable, but do not guarantee the market’s future performance. They do not constitute a recommendation or financial advice. Investing in crypto-assets involves risks, including the potential loss – even total – of the invested capital. Users are required to conduct independent evaluations before making economic and/or investment decisions and to consult their own specialised financial advisor.