Biden has officially withdrawn from the US presidential election race. What happens now? What impact has the news had on the market?
This week started with a very important piece of news: Joe Biden, the current president of the United States, has announced that he will not run in the next US elections. According to him, he will “focus on finishing the current term as best he can.”
The diplomatic tones of the announcement are not enough to hide the truth. Joe Biden is retiring because of bad public appearances in recent years and strong pressure from the Democratic Party, which considers him no longer up to the electoral battle due to health problems. Read more in the article.
Biden resigns: Kamala Harris in his place?
“Biden launches Kamala Harris” headlined the New York Times after the news, also given the post on X (formerly Twitter) immediately following the withdrawal letter in which the president announced his full support for his deputy. The announcement came during the day yesterday, shortly after two o’clock in the afternoon, in American time (East Coast time).
It must be specified, however, that Biden did not resign as President of the United States, an action that would have made life much easier for Harris. Had it gone this way, the transition of the leading Dem in the US elections would have been much easier. The main problem with this is that Biden won the primaries and, therefore, there are delegates associated with his name who should have confirmed his nomination as the nominee at the Democratic convention in Chicago. As he did, Biden can only suggest, not dictate, that these vote for Kamala Harris. The fear of an ‘open’ convention, i.e., multiple candidates vying for the vote not of the voters but of the delegates indicated by the primaries in the past months, has been at the centre of much political analysis in recent weeks.
Predictably, after Biden’s announcement, the candidates’ odds of winning also changed. Before the announcement, the poll by Polymarket, the most popular decentralised prediction app, gave Trump a 71% win and Biden a 16% win. However, Donald Trump’s odds of winning have dropped to 64%, and Kamala Harris’s are at 30%.
Look at the graph of Bitcoin
The impact of the news on the markets
A short while ago, we witnessed the opening of the US stock market, which performed very well in the first few minutes of trading after Biden’s departure. The NASDAQ 100, the index that tracks the performance of the hundred most capitalised technology companies, recorded +1.56%, and the S&P 500, +1%. However, the impact of Biden’s withdrawal on Bitcoin was visible from the minutes immediately following the announcement. BTC returned above $68,000, if only for a few hours.
What will happen in the crypto world if Trump wins the November election? In recent months, the entrepreneur and former president has been increasingly pro-crypto. After several pro-BTC statements, the most important news concerns his presence at Bitcoin 2024, the world’s largest conference dedicated to the crypto world scheduled for 22-25 July in Nashville.
However, there is more; a Trump re-election could also cause an injection of liquidity in the ‘traditional’ markets, especially the stock market. His first term was already characterised by expansionary economic policies aimed at stimulating the economy, which could be applied again, given the recent slowdown in inflation. Will his very likely victory in the November 2024 elections signal the start of the most explosive bull run ever?
