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The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions: what to expect

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September Fed meeting will be crucial for the markets: here’s the outlook for investors.

The Federal Reserve is preparing to discuss interest rates again at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 17 and 18 September. Currently, federal funds rates are between 5.25% and 5.50% after a series of hikes to curb inflation. However, experts and markets expect a 25 basis point cut, bringing rates between 5.00% and 5.25%. But what factors are driving this expected decision?

Economic indicators influencing Fed decisions

Decisions on interest rates are always complex: the Federal Reserve has to consider several economic indicators to assess whether it is the right time to raise, lower or maintain rates. Some of the key indicators the Fed looks at include:

  • Inflation (CPI and Core CPI): Inflation is one of the main targets of the Fed’s monetary policy. When prices rise too fast, the Fed tends to raise rates to curb demand and stabilise prices. In August, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2%, with an annual rate expected at 2.6%, down from 2.9% in July. This drop in inflation brings the economy closer to the Fed’s targets, facilitating the possibility of a rate cut.
  • Labour market: Employment also plays an important role in the Fed’s decisions. There is less pressure to cut rates when the labour market is strong, with low unemployment levels. However, recent reports show a cooling of the labour market. The US added only 142,000 new jobs in August, a number below economists’ expectations, signalling a slowdown.
  • Economic growth: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is another indicator. If the economy is growing too fast, there could be a risk of inflation, while weak growth could suggest the need for economic stimulus, such as rate cuts. Currently, US economic growth is slowing, making Fed intervention to avoid a recession more likely.

Who is affected by changes in interest rates?

The Fed’s interest rate decisions directly impact many sectors of the economy, and consumers, investors and businesses can feel the effects. Here are some examples:

  • Mortgages and loans: one of the first tangible effects of changes in interest rates concerns mortgages. If the Fed cuts rates, those with variable-rate mortgages might see a decrease in their monthly payments, while new home buyers might get loans with more favourable terms. However, many mortgage rates already reflect market expectations of a Fed rate cut, so a 25 basis point cut may make little difference in short-term mortgages.
  • Investment and financial markets: when the Fed cuts rates, financing costs for companies decrease, making it cheaper to invest and borrow. However, the stock market may react in a mixed way: while rate cuts stimulate some companies, other sectors, such as technology, maybe more cautious. Recently, the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, due to concerns about the economy and the slowdown of the artificial intelligence boom.
  • Savings: an essential aspect for savers concerns Certificates of Deposit (CDs), which offer favourable interest rates. CD yields could also fall if the Fed cuts rates, so the time could be right to lock in advantageous rates before they fall further.

The current economic environment and the upcoming rate cut

The overall picture shows declining inflation and a cooling but still strong labour market. With inflation approaching the 2% target, the Federal Reserve can cut rates without risking an uncontrolled inflation increase. At the same time, slower economic growth and concerns about a possible recession further push for an easing of monetary policy.

The long-term effects of interest rate cuts

Although interest rate cuts immediately affect mortgages, loans and financial markets, the long-term impacts may be more complex. When interest rates are lower, credit becomes more accessible, stimulating consumption and investment. This can boost economic growth in the short term, but if rates stay low for too long, there are some risks to consider:

  • Future inflation risk: if the Fed cuts rates too much or keeps them too low for a prolonged period, the economy could overheat, leading to a new inflation cycle. Even if inflation is under control today, a prolonged stimulus period could fuel renewed price growth, especially if the economy recovers quickly.
  • Debt growth: Low interest rates make debt cheaper for consumers and businesses, possibly encouraging higher debt levels. However, excessive debt may become unsustainable in future crises or a sudden rise in interest rates.
  • Impact on savers: In the long run, low rates penalise savers, who see diminishing returns on their low-risk investments, such as savings accounts and certificates of deposit. This can be a problem for pensioners or those living on savings income. Conversely, this becomes a more favourable scenario for risk-averse investors, prompting them to seek riskier investments for higher returns.
  • Higher bills for public debt: another long-term consequence of low rates is the potential increase in public debt. If the government goes into debt more easily to finance projects, it may accumulate debt that will be difficult to manage, especially if rates rise again.

It was a decisive moment for the economy and politics

The economic issue is one of the most vibrant among American voters, and the debate over the future of interest rates plays a crucial role in the political debate in the presidential election. As the November elections approach, the Federal Reserve’s choices will inevitably become one of the central points of confrontation between the candidates.

Tonight, Tuesday, 10 September, there will be a decisive debate between Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris, hosted by ABC News. This meeting, which represents the first ‘vis à vis’ between the two candidates, will be decisive in defining their positions on economic issues, one of the hottest topics of the election campaign. Voters will be particularly attentive to how the candidates intend to address the issue of economic growth, jobs and inflation, especially in a context where many Americans face higher debt costs and an uncertain job market.

Donald Trump, on the strength of a platform that has focused on tax cuts and deregulation in the past, might push for an aggressive rate cut to stimulate the economy further. On the other hand, Kamala Harris might emphasise the importance of prudent monetary policy management to avoid the economy’s overheating and uncontrolled debt growth.

Tonight’s debate will be crucial in understanding which economic view may prevail. The Fed’s decisions on interest rates are a key element in the future of US economic policy.

How should investors move in the context of a rate cut?

When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, investors must adopt different strategies to adapt to the new economic conditions. In general, lower interest rates mean that the cost of money falls, making it cheaper for companies to borrow and invest but reducing returns on safe investments such as savings accounts and certificates of deposit. Here are some strategies investors can consider:

  • Diversifying the portfolio: With falling interest rates, safe investments such as bonds and savings accounts tend to offer lower returns. This may push investors to seek higher returns in riskier assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, or mutual funds. In particular, sectors such as technology or renewable energy could benefit from a low-rate environment, as companies can more easily invest in growth projects.
  • Consider long-term investments: even if rates are low, there may be opportunities to lock in profitable returns over the long term. This can protect capital from yield erosion over time.
  • Evaluate stocks of companies that benefit from low rates: sectors such as real estate and utilities, which typically require large amounts of financing, may benefit from lower rates as the cost of debt decreases. Investors might consider buying shares in these sectors, which could have sustained growth in the new economic environment.
  • Monitor inflation: Although low rates stimulate the economy, investors should be alert to possible signs of future inflation. More conservative investments, such as bonds and fixed-rate government securities, could lose value if inflation picks up. Therefore, investors should keep an eye on future Fed policies to see if there will be a return to higher rates in the medium term.

In summary, a rate-cutting environment offers opportunities but also risks. Investors must be agile and ready to review their strategies, balancing risks and returns in a constantly changing economic landscape. To explore new opportunities, sign up for free on Young Platform.

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The Most Powerful Passport: 2024 Global Rankings

most powerful passport 2024

What does it mean to have the most powerful passport in the world?

In 2024, the title of “most powerful passport” is more than just a badge of honour—it’s a gateway to unparalleled freedom and opportunities. But what exactly makes a passport powerful? In this deep dive, we’ll explore the concept of passport power, the global rankings for 2024, and what it means for citizens who hold these prestigious documents.

What is a “powerful” passport?

Imagine travelling freely, crossing borders without hassle, and exploring new cultures without facing bureaucratic obstacles. This is the privilege of having the “most powerful passport in the world.” A powerful passport allows entry into many countries without a visa or with a visa on arrival, granting its holders tremendous freedom of movement.

Advantages and Privileges

Holding a powerful passport comes with several key benefits:

  • Freedom of movement: Travel to numerous countries without needing a visa.
  • Economic opportunities: Easier access to global markets and the ability to relocate for work.
  • Quality of life: The ability to choose from various destinations for living, studying, or working, enhancing overall quality of life.

How the ranking of the most powerful passports changes

The ranking of the most powerful passports in the world is constantly evolving. Changes can be driven by various factors, including:

  • Geopolitics: Tensions or agreements between countries can influence the number of visa-free destinations.
  • International Agreements: New treaties or partnerships can alter entry conditions for citizens of certain nations.
  • Global Crises: Events like the COVID-19 pandemic have significantly impacted global travel possibilities.

Measuring the most powerful passport in the world

Each year, several organisations publish rankings of the most powerful passports based on the freedom of travel they offer. Among the most influential is the Henley Passport Index, which evaluates passports based on the number of countries their holders can visit without a visa.

This ranking compares 199 passports against 227 possible destinations. A passport’s “score” depends on the number of visa-free countries it grants access to, with data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The most powerful passports in the world: 2024 rankings

  1. The new number one: Singapore

In 2024, Singapore has claimed the top spot, surpassing other countries that usually compete for the number one position. Singaporean citizens can now travel to 195 countries visa-free, setting a new record. This achievement cements Singapore’s position as a global leader, thanks to its strong diplomatic relations and economic stability.

As we will explore further, the freedom of movement for individuals is closely linked to capital mobility and, consequently, to a country’s wealth. It is no surprise, then, that Singapore is one of the world’s most “crypto-friendly” countries. Singapore has been striving to establish a regulatory balance for cryptocurrencies and attract the industry within its borders for some time. If you’re interested in following the crypto market, you might want to consider using this:

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  1. Second Place: Europe and Japan

While Singapore has taken the lead, many European and Asian countries share second place, with visa-free access to 192 destinations. France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Spain are among these countries, highlighting the importance of stability and diplomatic relations in securing travel freedom.

  1. Third Place: a European and Asia dominance

In third place, we find an unprecedented group of seven countries, each with access to 191 visa-free destinations. These include Austria, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, South Korea, and Sweden, emphasising the continued dominance of Europe and Asia in the global passport rankings.

  1. United Kingdom and United States: former powers in decline

The United Kingdom clings to 4th place, sharing the rank with Belgium, Denmark, New Zealand, Norway, and Switzerland, scoring 190 destinations. Although slightly lower than previous years, it remains a significant position. The United States continues to slide in the rankings, landing in 8th place with access to 186 countries visa-free. Both the UK and the US, which held the top spot in 2014, have seen a decline in their passport power over the past decade, reflecting a gradual loss of political and diplomatic influence.

The world’s weakest passports

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Afghanistan remains at the bottom of the list, ranking 199th as the weakest passport in the world. Over the past six months, the Afghan passport has lost access to another destination, leaving its citizens visa-free entry to only 26 countries—the lowest score ever recorded in the index’s history.

The biggest climbers and fallers in the rankings

United Arab Emirates: A Remarkable Ascent

One of the biggest success stories in 2024 is the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has entered the Top 10 for the first time. The UAE has added 152 destinations since 2006, achieving a score of 185. This leap from 62nd to 9th place results from a targeted government strategy to make the UAE a global hub for business, tourism, and investment.

China and Ukraine: rapid climbers

China and Ukraine have made significant strides in the rankings over the past decade. Since 2014, China has climbed 24 positions, from 83rd to 59th, and Ukraine has moved from 53rd to 30th. Both countries allow their citizens visa-free travel to 148 countries. This improvement reflects the political and economic changes in these countries.

The most significant loser: Venezuela

Venezuela has seen the most significant drop, falling 17 positions from 25th to 42nd place over the past decade. This decline is due to severe economic and political crises, which have forced over seven million Venezuelans to leave. Yemen, Nigeria, and Syria have also seen significant losses, dropping 15, 13, and 13 positions, respectively, due to conflicts and instability that limit their citizens’ mobility.

The Impact of Travel Freedom on Economic Prosperity

In 2024, freedom to travel has become a crucial indicator of economic prosperity. According to the Henley Global Mobility Report, the ability to travel visa-free or to relocate businesses to favourable cities has become a key factor in wealth and international legacy. Passport rankings also connect with the rankings of the world’s richest and poorest countries.

Fastest-growing cities for millionaires

Among the fastest-growing cities for millionaires, Shenzhen and Hangzhou in China have seen impressive growth, with 140% and 125% increases, respectively. Other rapidly growing cities include Bengaluru in India, Austin and Scottsdale in the United States, Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, and Sharjah in the UAE, demonstrating how global mobility and visa-free access have become essential tools for expanding wealth. Also, look at the ranking of the richest men in the world.

Conclusion

In 2024, holding the most powerful passport in the world is synonymous with freedom, opportunity, and prestige. It’s not just a travel document—it’s a symbol of global openness. As the ranking of the most powerful passports continues to evolve, reflecting global dynamics, one thing is certain: having a powerful passport means having the world at your fingertips.

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“Buy the dip”: the siren song or the Oracle of Delphi?

buy the dip

“Buy the dip” is a phrase often heard in the world of investment and trading, and it’s particularly popular among those active in the crypto market. Let’s take yesterday, Monday, 5 July, as an example: a sort of “Black Monday”. Anyone who didn’t feel queasy witnessing a BTC drop of over 18% must have heard the siren’s call. Dear Odysseus, shall we admit it? Buy the dip, Buy the dip, Buy the dip. This melody has echoed in the ears of those accustomed to the market’s slaps or who have nerves of steel.

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The last time we saw such a drop was two years ago. And in every crash, there are two faces: one of catastrophe and one of great opportunity. But, of course, not all dynamics can be under our control. Solid risk management is needed, as well as building diversified strategies over time to avoid being too exposed to the market. No one wants to be caught in a snowstorm in their underwear, even if we feel like superheroes (and no, don’t do it; it’s a mistake).

After all this preamble, the question is: what exactly is “Buy the dip”? Is it always worth following this “mantra“, or is it better sometimes to be more cautious? In this article, we will try to answer these questions, hoping to give you an extra sword and shield for the next battle. Our wish is that you may emerge victorious.

What does “Buy the Dip” mean?

The literal translation of “Buy the dip” is “buy the drop”. This trading practice involves purchasing an asset after its price has decreased, hoping this dip is temporary and the price will rise again soon. The idea is that the drop represents a buying opportunity at a discounted price, waiting for the market to rebound.

Advantages

  • Profit opportunities: Buying during a dip can be very profitable if the market rebounds and prices rise.
  • Average cost reduction: By adding positions during dips, an investor can lower the average purchase cost of an asset, improving the potential return.
  • Access to discounted prices: Buying assets during a dip offers the chance to acquire them at prices that could be considered discounted relative to their long-term value.

Limitations and Risks

Despite the potential advantages, Buy the Dip also presents significant risks:

  • No guarantee of rebound: An asset could continue to fall for various reasons, such as changes in economic fundamentals or company management. For example, a crypto that falls from $100 to $60 might seem a bargain, but if the project’s growth prospects are negative, it could drop even further.
  • Difficulty assessing intrinsic value: It’s often hard to tell if a dip is temporary or a sign of further declines. Buying just because the price has fallen isn’t always a good idea if the reasons for the drop aren’t understood. One must ask: Is the drop due to internal issues or external factors? Is it a temporary situation? Is the project resilient? How long will the price correction last?
  • Averaging down: If an investor already holds the asset and continues to buy during dips, they are adopting an “averaging down” strategy, which can be risky if the asset continues to lose value. This strategy, if not managed correctly, can lead to significant losses.

Risk management

When adopting Buy the Dip, we need a plan B—an escape route—something to avoid a fatal hemorrhage. What is it? Having a risk management plan. For example, setting a loss limit to avoid being trapped in a prolonged losing position. Some traders set an exit price to control losses. Suppose a crypto falls from $100 to $60, and the trader decides to sell if the price reaches $75 to limit losses.

Context

Buy the dip is often used in different contexts and can have varying probabilities of success depending on the situation.

  • During an uptrend: Some traders use this strategy when the market is generally rising. Imagine a crypto increasing in value but experiencing a slight drop at some point. Traders who believe in the strength of this uptrend see this dip as an opportunity to buy at a lower price, expecting the price to rise again soon. It’s like taking advantage of sales during a period of high demand.
  • Without a clear trend: Other traders use Buy the Dip even when there’s no evident uptrend. Here, the bet is that the asset’s current decline will increase. This can happen because they believe in the asset’s fundamentals or the project’s potential behind the crypto. It’s like buying a product at a flea market, hoping its value will increase over time, perhaps due to an improvement, a forthcoming novelty, or because the asset is currently undervalued.

“Buy the Dip” in the crypto market

Buy the Dip is a popular mantra in the crypto market, often promoted by influential traders and investors. However, it is important to remember that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and dips can be significant and prolonged. Nevertheless, this strategy has proven successful when buying the most solid assets in the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum. For this reason, every time these cryptocurrencies drop, the mantra “buy the f****** dip” (BTFD) echoes across social media platforms used by enthusiasts in the sector.

It’s no coincidence that from 4 July, as BTC fell below $60,000 for the second time in four months, posts, tweets, and quotes on “Buy the dip” mushroomed on Reddit, X, 4chan, and Bitcoin Talk.

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Examples of “Buy the Dip”

A well-known example is the 2007-08 financial crisis, where many investors bought shares in companies like Bear Stearns and New Century Mortgage, expecting a recovery that never came. Both companies left the business after losing a significant share of their value. In contrast, those who bought Apple shares after the 2020 crash saw a significant increase in value, making the strategy highly profitable.

The opposite: “Sell the Rally”

The opposite approach to “Buy the Dip” is “Sell the rally”, which involves selling an asset whose price has increased, anticipating an imminent dip. Again, the goal is to maximise profits, but it carries similar risks, such as the possibility of selling too early or too late.

To conclude

“Buy the dip” can be a winning strategy in volatile markets and during long-term uptrends. However, it requires good market knowledge and well-thought-out risk management. It is not a foolproof technique and should not be adopted without a critical assessment of the circumstances and one’s risk profile.

Homework: To avoid being overwhelmed by FOMO, it is useful to remember the opposite mantra. Try repeating: “Time in the market beats timing the market”. This can help you keep a cool head and make more rational decisions.

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Cryptocurrencies Under Pressure: Market Crash, Causes, and Prospects

bitcoin crash 2024

Bitcoin Crash: -18% in 24 hours – Here’s Why

The cryptocurrency market has been shaken by a significant drop in valuations, with Bitcoin and Ether recording impressive losses. This article will explore the reasons behind this sudden decline, the implications for investors, and the market prospects.

Let’s start by taking a closer look at the Bitcoin crash.

The Bitcoin Crash

On Monday, August 5, 2024, Bitcoin’s value dropped by over 18%, reaching around $51,100, a level it hadn’t touched in several months. Even more drastic was Ether’s fall, which lost 23%, bringing its value to around $2,200. This collapse has wiped out Ether’s entire annual performance.

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Behind the Bitcoin Crash: Panic in Traditional Markets

The drop in cryptocurrencies coincided with the dramatic collapse of Asian markets. The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates to the highest level in 16 years shook the markets. Panic began to spread at the end of the previous week, during the weekend of August 3 and 4, and peaked on the night between August 4 and 5. One indicator of this fear was a significant drop in the Nikkei index, one of Japan’s leading stock indices.

The Nikkei 225 closed with a loss of 12.4%, the worst session since “Black Monday” in 1987. The Topix followed the same fate, dropping by 12.23%.

Carry Trade and the Japanese Yen

One reason for this concern is related to an investment strategy called carry trade, which investors use to exploit low interest rates in Japan. Here’s how it works:

  1. Borrow at low cost: investors borrow money in Japan, where interest rates are meagre (almost zero).
  2. Convert and invest elsewhere: investors convert the borrowed money (in Japanese yen, JPY) into another currency, such as the US dollar (USD).
  3. Buy stocks: with these dollars, they buy stocks of technology companies in the US stock market, like those in the Nasdaq 100 (an index that includes large tech companies).

Effects of the Carry Trade

When many investors engage in this:

  • The yen depreciates: converting large amounts of yen into dollars causes the yen’s value to fall.
  • The Nasdaq rises: purchasing many American stocks causes their value to increase.

Current Problem

The Bank of Japan recently raised interest rates, increasing the yen’s value. When the yen’s value rises, investors who borrowed yen must repay more in other currencies, making carry trade less convenient. In recent days, many investors have abruptly stopped engaging in carry trade.

Result

  • Markets panic: By stopping the carry trade, investors sell the stocks they had bought (like those in the Nasdaq 100), causing their value to fall.
  • Nikkei Index drops: The sale of stocks and general uncertainty cause significant market drops, as seen in the Japanese Nikkei.

In summary, the market panic was caused by the end of an investment strategy (carry trade) that no longer works well due to changes in interest rates in Japan. This led to massive stock sales and significant market declines, affecting American stocks. Let’s now look at the impact in figures.

Impacts on US Markets

The first to suffer from the “panic-sell” were tech companies. Here’s how their valuations plummeted:

  • Apple: -6%
  • Meta: -10%
  • Microsoft: -12%
  • Amazon: -17%
  • Adobe: -18%
  • Nvidia: -20%
  • Broadcom: -23%
  • Tesla: -25%
  • Qualcomm: -30%
  • AMD: -37%

The Nasdaq dropped 3.4% last week, marking the worst three weeks since September 2022. Currently, futures indicate a further decline of the Nasdaq by 5%, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones down by 2.6% and 1.12%, respectively. The CBOE volatility index, often called the market fear gauge, rose by 58.7%, reaching its highest level since 2020.

Why Tech Companies?

We can outline three reasons:

  1. Warren Buffett, the famous American investor, has sold half his stake in Apple for $76 billion, causing a significant shake-up in the sector.
  2. Intel, one of the largest semiconductor companies, has announced a major personnel reduction, with the layoff of 15,000 employees.
  3. Many prominent American companies reported disappointing quarterly results, below analysts’ expectations. This caused a significant crash in the tech sector’s stock market. After mass layoffs post-pandemic, tech companies became very popular again due to the excitement for artificial intelligence (AI).

Problems with Artificial Intelligence (AI)

However, AI has not proven as reliable as hoped:

  • Profit doubts: experts and analysts from Goldman Sachs have raised doubts about AI’s ability to generate good profits compared to more traditional projects.
  • High costs: the enormous investments required to develop AI must yield the expected returns.

Market Effects

These issues have led to:

  • Stock sales: investors started selling tech company stocks.
  • Stock decline: even companies that met their targets saw a decrease in their stock value.
  • Disillusionment: there is growing disappointment among investors about AI’s promises.

The combination of disappointing financial results and concerns about AI’s profitability caused a wave of sales in the tech sector, increasing uncertainty in global financial markets.

In similar scenarios, fear has a chain reaction. It leads investors to get rid of higher-risk assets, like cryptocurrencies immediately. Let’s see the consequences of the last domino falling: the crypto market.

The Impact of the Crash In Figures

Total Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization (TCMC)

Since August 2, the cryptocurrency market capitalisation has collapsed by $510 billion in just three days. This collapse involved more investors than in the past, thanks to the approval of spot ETFs on Bitcoin and Ether, which attracted many institutional investors.

Market Crash and Leveraged Long Positions

The sudden crypto market crash wiped out over $600 million in leveraged long positions. According to TradingView data, on August 5, the BTC price dropped to around $49,000 before recovering to $52,900. ETH also experienced a significant drop, falling from $2,695 to $2,118 over the same period.

Impact on Ether Traders

In recent months, there has been a significant increase in open interest in Ether, with traders flocking to gain exposure to the asset ahead of the approval of Ether spot ETFs in the US. However, the sharp drop in cryptocurrencies hit hard, and traders seeking leveraged exposure to Ether, with over $256 million in long positions, liquidated.

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Expert Opinions

Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro, stated that cryptocurrencies are often an indicator of investor sentiment. When investors panic or seek to reduce leverage, cryptocurrencies are often the first asset to suffer the consequences. However, Gilbert shared an optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies in the coming months, suggesting that investors might see this situation as an opportunity.

The Economic Scenario

To comprehend this swift decline in the Bitcoin crash, it is crucial to broaden the perspective and examine the underlying beliefs rather than solely the reasons for the downfall. Let’s analyse the conducive environment that transformed uncertainty into widespread panic.

Are the United States Entering a Recession?

Recent economic indicators in the US and many analysts suggest the economy will enter a recession early next year. Recession fears negatively impact the markets, and market participants speculate on potential actions by the Federal Reserve.

Unemployment Data Is Not Positive

The monthly report from the US Department of Labor showed a growth of 114,000 jobs in July, well below the forecast of 185,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. These harmful economic data create a growing sense of alert about a weakening job market and the economy’s susceptibility to recession.

Fed Interest Rates

For a year, the US Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year peak of 5.25%-5.50%. Some analysts fear that this prolonged restrictive monetary policy could push the economy towards a recession. The Sahm Rule recession indicator, which exceeded the 0.50 threshold, has historically signalled the early stages of a recession in the US economy.

While significant data are expected before the September 18 meeting, an acceleration in employment trends in August could strengthen the case for a 50-basis-point cut. However, currently, consensus leans towards a 25-basis-point reduction.

Expert Opinions

Simon White, a Bloomberg rate strategist, notes that the market might be prematurely anticipating a recession that is unlikely to occur before next year at the earliest. He adds that while the Sahm Rule triggers heightened recession concerns, it is often delayed and does not capture many stock downturns, making it neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for a recession.

Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, expressed concerns, stating that the Fed is on the verge of turning a victory into a loss. According to him, the economic momentum has slowed to the point that a rate cut in September might be insufficient and that a more substantial reduction than the typical quarter-point cut might be necessary to prevent a recession.

Trump’s Support for Bitcoin

Considering Donald Trump’s clear stance on Bitcoin, the upcoming US presidential elections could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market. During the recent Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Trump compared Bitcoin to the steel industry a hundred years ago, arguing that blockchain has the potential to shape the future of the global economy.

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Democrats Gaining Ground

However, current polls show a recovery for Kamala Harris nationally and in three key electoral college states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Although the margins are skinny and fall within the statistical error, especially in Pennsylvania, some models give the Vice President slightly better odds than Trump for the final victory. Just a few days ago, this scenario seemed highly unlikely.

From Certainty to Prospect

As a result, the situation that had helped push Bitcoin’s value so high has changed. Trump’s re-election now appears much less inevitable than two weeks ago, making a possible shift in cryptocurrency use in the United States only a prospect. This uncertainty adds to financial and international market concerns, with the Middle East teetering due to rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Unfavourable polls for Trump created the perfect scenario for a Bitcoin crash.

Future Prospects

The recent cryptocurrency market crash, especially the Bitcoin crash, has highlighted their vulnerability to macroeconomic events and political decisions. However, it is essential to remember that fundamental factors, such as the approval of ETFs and Bitcoin’s halving, have yet to show their full long-term impact. These events could potentially lead to a recovery and significant growth in the future.

Despite risk signals, it is essential to note that analysts have rarely successfully predicted a recession with accuracy. Economic forecasts are inherently uncertain and often subject to sudden changes. Moreover, during bull markets, the cryptocurrency market tends to decouple from the stock market, potentially offering different opportunities to investors.

In conclusion, while the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a difficult phase, its long-term prospects remain interesting. Investors need to maintain a long-term view and consider the risks and opportunities this dynamic market offers.

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Crypto AI: Grayscale launches its ad-hoc fund

Grayscale has just announced its crypto AI fund. Find out what this innovative financial instrument consists of.

Grayscale has just announced its Decentralised AI Fund LLC. This brand-new investment fund will allow those who purchase it to gain exposure to the most important crypto protocols aiming to establish themselves in the artificial intelligence sector. 

What cryptos does this innovative fund consist of? What is Grayscale’s main goal, and what artificial intelligence problems could blockchain solve? Find out in this article.

Discover Crypto AI

Grayscale’s new crypto AI fund

Practically everyone knows Grayscale, mainly because it is the largest native crypto investment fund, the first to launch financial instruments on Ethereum and Bitcoin. For this reason, the news released in the past few hours is essential, given the ability of the team of this cutting-edge financial player to intercept new trends. 

The main problem with artificial intelligence, at least according to Grayscale, concerns the centralisation of the companies that control it. 

Few and far between are those who can offer products that can reach the masses, mainly due to the enormous amount of data they hold. As a solution to this problem, various decentralised AI protocols have emerged, aiming to make their processes even more innovative and intelligent. In particular, blockchain technology makes it possible to distribute the ownership and governance of AI services, thereby increasing transparency.

The cryptocurrencies that make up

For now, the information at our disposal tells us that The Grayscale Decentralised AI Fund will self-rebalance every quarter and will accommodate the following basket of cryptocurrencies:

Buy NEAR, RNDR and FIL

The team has yet to comment on possible future additions, but other cryptos will likely be added over time. Why did Grayscale choose these? Well, because they represent the three main categories of crypto AI around today:

  • Protocols that are building decentralised artificial intelligence services;
  • Projects that seek to solve the main problems encountered by AI platforms;
  • Infrastructure networks and resources required for technology development. For example, decentralised marketplaces for data storage, or those for exchanging GPU computing power and graphics rendering.


To conclude, we can quote the words of Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary, Head of Product & Research at Grayscale, who was mentioned in the press release through which the announcement was made. “The rise of these disruptive technologies has created exciting opportunities for investors, and we believe our crypto AI fund is a great way to invest in this emerging sector. Blockchain-based AI protocols embody the principles of decentralisation, accessibility and transparency and can potentially mitigate the fundamental risks emerging from the proliferation of this technology.”


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New Smart Trades strategies with Crypto-USDC pair and free USDT to USDC conversion

crypto-usdc pair

Young Platform updates the Smart Trades functionality to ensure a trading environment that is compliant with MiCA regulations. 

The company has decided to modify the pairs in the Smart Trades functionality, migrating from the crypto-USDT pair to the crypto-USDC pair.

With this update, we aim to inform our users about the strategic decisions taken by Young Platform following the entry into force of European Regulation No. 2023/1114 of 31 May 2023 concerning Markets in Crypto-assets (MiCA), effective from 30 June 2024.

These decisions reflect the need to comply with the Italian government’s recent approval of the Legislative Decree of 25 June 2024. This decree aims to align the national regulatory framework with the provisions of the MiCA Regulation and ensure coordination with existing regulations in Italy, particularly the Consolidated Banking Act (TUB) and the Consolidated Finance Act (TUF).

8 July 2024: new Smart Trades strategies with Crypto-USDC pair

Starting on 8 July 2024, Young Platform will implement a significant change in the Smart Trades strategies offered to users, utilising the crypto-USDC pair. Therefore, from 8 July to 15 July, adding new funds to strategies already active or created during this timeframe will not be possible.

This strategic decision is to comply with the MiCA Regulation, which promotes security and transparency in the cryptocurrency sector.

USDC’s adoption as the reference stablecoin in the new Smart Trades strategies is motivated by its growing adoption and complete adherence to the regulatory requirements of the MiCA Regulation. USDC is widely recognised for its stability and regulatory compliance, making it an ideal choice for users seeking safety and reliability in their trading operations.

Young Platform has always placed great emphasis on compliance and protecting the interests of its users. This new implementation represents a further step forward in ensuring a secure, transparent, and compliant trading environment. Our platform continues to evolve to meet the needs of a constantly changing market, offering innovative and regulatory-compliant solutions.

15 July 2024: conversion of USDT to USDC in active Smart Trades

Starting from 15 July 2024, Young Platform will convert all USDT to USDC in Smart Trades strategies activated before 8 July 2024 for free. The user will not incur any fees for this conversion. 

This initiative is part of our ongoing commitment to ensuring compliance with regulations and providing an efficient and advantageous service for users. The free conversion eliminates additional costs for the user, facilitating the transition to a compliant and consolidated stablecoin like USDC.

USDT, PAX Gold, and DAI will not be delisted

Young Platform does not plan to delist USDT, PAX Gold, and DAI until further notice. We are actively collaborating with the foundations of these stablecoins to support their compliance with the MiCA Regulation. By the end of July, we will provide updates on the availability of these currencies on our platform.

Moreover, we will closely monitor any regulatory updates or communications from the stablecoin issuers and promptly inform users of relevant news.

Conclusion

Young Platform remains firmly committed to ensuring a safe, compliant, and advantageous trading environment for all users. The new Smart Trades strategies with the crypto-USDC pair and the free conversion of USDT to USDC are concrete steps towards regulatory compliance and protecting users’ interests. We thank everyone for their understanding and cooperation during this transition phase.

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Communication to Young Platform Users Regarding MiCA Regulation

usdc compliant micar

Communication to Young Platform Users Regarding MiCA Regulation and USD Coin

Following our communication on June 29, we want to update you on the compliance of stablecoins on Young Platform concerning the MiCA Regulation.

USDC Stablecoin Compliance

We are pleased to inform you that the USDC stablecoin is now fully compliant with the MiCA Regulation. The USDC and EURC White Papers, available here, provide further details.

As of 1 July 2024, USDC will be issued as an EMT (Electronic Money Token) under Article 3 of the MiCA Regulation. USDC will remain available on the Young Platform without interruptions or modifications.

Official Website: Take a look at the Circle and USDC websites.

For information and support, visit the Circle website or open a ticket.

For all information requests and subpoenas from law enforcement, send an email to [email protected].

Updates on Other Stablecoins

Regarding the other token (USDT, PAX Gold, and DAI), we await official communications from their respective issuers about their compliance with MiCA. In the meantime, Young Platform has taken the following measures to ensure compliance with the new European regulation:

  • Continuous monitoring of official communications from the issuers.
  • Timely updates to users regarding any news on the compliance of the stablecoins.

We will keep you informed with a new communication shortly about the next steps regarding these stablecoins.

Thank you for your attention, and please stay tuned for further updates.

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Communication to Young Platform Users regarding MiCA Regulation

We are approaching a pivotal stage in the world of cryptocurrencies: the entry into force of European Regulation No. 2023/1114 of 31 May 2023 concerning Crypto-Asset Markets (MiCA). In particular, the first block of the relevant European legislation will come into force on 30 June, which will significantly impact stablecoins and the broader digital asset market across the European Economic Area (EEA). Specifically, under the MiCA Regulation, authorised stablecoins must meet stricter reserve requirements, governance, and transparency requirements. Furthermore, on 25 June 2024, the Italian government approved the Legislative Decree to align the national regulatory framework with the MiCA Regulation, aiming to ensure coordination with existing sector provisions in Italy (particularly with the TUB and TUF).

What changes for Users?

With the entry into force of the MiCA Regulation, Young Platform is working to ensure that all cryptocurrencies offered on our platform comply with the MiCA Regulation, implementing a series of measures to protect Users and create an even safer and regulated environment.

  • Stablecoin: The MiCA Regulation introduces new rules for Stablecoins, which must meet specific requirements to be offered to the public. For reasons better explained below, Young Platform is already working to comply with this new regulation. Still, no changes are planned to the offering of Stablecoins on our platform. We will continue monitoring regulatory developments and guidance from competent authorities and promptly inform Users of any updates.
  • Greater transparency (Articles 27, 29, and 40 MiCA): We will provide more detailed information on the cryptocurrencies offered, including associated risks and specific characteristics of each token. In particular, we will focus on Asset Reference Tokens (ART) and Electronic Money Tokens (EMT), for which MiCA establishes specific requirements (Articles 16 and 48 MiCA):
    • a) ART Tokens: According to Article 3(6) of MiCA, these are “a type of crypto-asset that is not an electronic money token and aims to maintain a stable value by referencing another value or right or a combination of the two, including one or more official currencies.” The MiCA Regulation requires platforms like Young Platform to obtain written consent from the issuer of the ART token before offering it to the public (Article 16 MiCA) and to comply with specific transparency and communication obligations (Articles 27, 29, and 40 MiCA).
    • b) EMT Tokens: According to Article 3(7) of MiCA, these are “a type of crypto-asset that aims to maintain a stable value by reference to the value of an official currency.” The MiCA Regulation establishes stricter requirements for EMT token issuers, which must be authorised as credit institutions or electronic money institutions (Article 48 MiCA) and must also publish a White Paper containing detailed project information (Article 51 MiCA). Platforms offering EMT tokens must also comply with specific rules on communication and marketing (Article 53 MiCA).
  • Clear communications (Articles 29 and 53 MiCA): Our communications will be even more transparent and informative, in line with MiCA requirements on marketing and advertising. We will provide all the necessary information to make informed decisions. In particular, regarding EMT tokens, our marketing communications will comply with MiCA’s specific provisions for this type of token.
  • Dedicated support: Our Customer Support Team is available to answer any questions or concerns you may have regarding MiCA and its implications.

What changes for Spot Trading services, purchasing Stablecoins with Fiat Currency, and Smart Trades?

Although the MiCA Regulation has introduced specific requirements, particularly for Asset-Referenced Tokens (ART) and Electronic Money Tokens (EMT), it does not provide a definitive and exhaustive list of which cryptocurrencies fall into these two categories.

This means that issuers themselves have not openly declared with certainty whether their Tokens should be considered EMT or not. Consequently, Young Platform is in the position of having to independently interpret the regulation and is awaiting definitive clarification from the relevant authorities.

To date, Young is doing its best to contact all Token issuers that may fall into the aforementioned categories, asking them whether they are working to comply with the new obligations for ART and EMT issuers. Due to the absence, as mentioned, of a precise classification of these types of Tokens and considering the various possible interpretations of the regulation, Young Platform has not made any changes to its Spot Trading service for Users or, for the same reasons, to the service of purchasing Stablecoins with Fiat Currency or the Smart Trades service. It should be noted that in the first week of July, we will send Users a new update regarding the classification of EMTs and ARTs, to provide the latest data on issuers who have decided to regularise their Tokens and to specify how these issuers intend to operate. Furthermore, the same communication will further clarify how Young Platform intends to manage Tokens not authorised under the MiCA Regulation.

Certainly, the Company will continue to monitor regulatory developments and guidance from competent authorities constantly, and we will promptly inform Users of any updates and/or changes to the service.

Finally, we invite you to consult the official MiCA summary prepared by public authorities, available at this link.

If you have any questions or doubts, please do not hesitate to contact our customer service. We are here to help you navigate this new regulatory landscape and make the most of the opportunities offered by the MiCA Regulation.

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Profit and Loss: how to monitor your crypto portfolio performance on Young Platform

profit and loss young platform

Managing performance with the new P&L calculation method

Young Platform has updated its P&L (Profit & Loss) feature to offer a clearer and more detailed view of your crypto portfolio’s performance. As of June 2025, the system employs a new calculation method, which features interactive charts, detailed statistics, and revised data handling.

This is not a brand-new feature, but rather an optimisation of how existing data is analysed. It allows users to easily track:

  • Overall portfolio performance
  • Gains or losses on each individual cryptocurrency
  • Current value across the various wallets (Main, Savings, Staking, Smart Trade)
  • Realised and unrealised performance over time

To view your updated data, simply go to the “Profit and Loss” section within the app or web platform.

P&L method and tax reporting

The new calculation method is now also used to generate the tax report available on the platform. This integration ensures that the data shown in the P&L section is fully aligned with what is needed for income tax reporting.

Main user benefits include:

  • Consistency between operational analysis and tax data
  • Realised gains calculated in accordance with current regulations
  • Easy-to-export tax report, readable by your accountant

This synergy between performance tracking and regulatory compliance streamlines crypto asset management from both financial and legal perspectives.

How the P&L calculation works

Young Platform distinguishes between realised and unrealised gains and losses.

Realised Profit (or Loss)

This refers to the actual gain or loss made from completed operations: sales, withdrawals, or conversions into euros or stablecoins.

Learn more about stablecoins and taxation: Crypto-assets: from MiCAR to the Italian tax system

Calculation:
 Sale/withdrawal/conversion price – average purchase price
Fees are included and counted as a loss.

Note:
 Conversions between cryptocurrencies (e.g., BTC > ETH) do not count as realised gains, but transfer their value as unrealised capital gains.
Conversions to stablecoins (e.g., BTC > USDC), however, do count as realised gains, just like conversions into euros.

Example:

  • Purchase: 0.5 BTC at €15,000 (€30,000/BTC)
  • Sale: 0.5 BTC at €17,500 (€35,000/BTC)
  • Realised profit: €2,500

Unrealised Profit (or Loss)

This is an estimate of the value change of cryptocurrencies still held in your portfolio.

Calculation:
 Current value – average purchase price

Note:
 Applies only to crypto assets that have not yet been sold, withdrawn, or converted into euros/stablecoins.
Conversions between cryptocurrencies retain the gain as an unrealised capital gain.

Example:

  • Purchase: 0.5 BTC at €15,000
  • Current value: €17,500
  • Unrealised profit: €2,500

Average purchase price: definition and usage

The average purchase price represents the unit cost of a cryptocurrency over time.

Key features:

  • Updated only when buying
  • Unaffected by sales, withdrawals, or conversions
  • Used to calculate both realised and unrealised profits
  • When transferring assets between internal wallets (e.g. from Savings to Staking), the average purchase price follows the asset

How to read the data in the Analytics section

The Analytics section has been enhanced to provide a clear and detailed overview of your portfolio’s structure and performance. It includes:

Total performance

Total performance shows the overall gains and losses in your portfolio, expressed both as a percentage and in euros. It takes into account all value fluctuations, including realised and unrealised gains and losses.
Figures are updated every hour and shown net of any fees.

This metric provides an immediate and accurate snapshot of your portfolio’s growth or decline, making it a crucial reference for evaluating overall performance.

Breakdown by functionality

This section displays how your capital is distributed across the various investment strategies available on Young Platform: Main Wallet, Savings, Staking, and Smart Trade.
For each, it shows the total unrealised gain, allowing you to quickly identify which strategy is delivering the best results.

Volume analysis

This tool lets you monitor your activity in detail: deposits, withdrawals, and orders (buy, sell, or swap). You can select a specific time frame and filter by transaction type, generating a detailed chart of your operations.
This enables complete control over your activities and supports more strategic decision-making.

Crypto distribution

Displayed via a pie chart, this section shows the percentage breakdown of your crypto holdings by asset.
Each segment represents a specific cryptocurrency, helping you visually assess the weight of each asset and decide whether to rebalance your portfolio.

Transactions

Here, you’ll find a detailed list of all your transactions, including type and volume.
This view is also useful if you’re considering upgrading your verification level or joining a Club plan that offers reduced fees based on your trading volume.

Balance distribution

This chart shows how your capital is allocated across different investment strategies on the platform.
Each segment represents a strategy and highlights its proportion of your total balance.
It’s a valuable tool for evaluating diversification, exposure, and the impact of each strategy on your overall returns.

Asset type allocation

This provides a clear overview of how your portfolio is split between euros, cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins.
It helps you assess your exposure to volatility and balance between stable and high-risk assets, supporting more informed planning and risk management.

Further reading:

The updated P&L method on Young Platform marks a significant step forward in managing crypto investments with clarity and accountability. It enhances real-time performance tracking while integrating seamlessly with fiscal reporting, simplifying your annual tax process.Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just getting started, you now have a powerful tool to monitor, evaluate and document your crypto activity in a clear, structured, and compliant way.

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ECB Rates: Impact of the Cut on Markets and the Economy

ecb rates

The ECB Cuts Rates for the First Time Since 2019

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a rate cut on Thursday, 6 June, lowering the deposit rate from 4% to 3.75%, the benchmark rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, and the marginal lending rate from 4.75% to 4.50%. This hasn’t happened since 2019.

This decision was made despite inflation forecasts being revised upwards, indicating a slow and irregular path for rate reductions.

Future Interest Rate Decisions

Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, emphasized that future rate decisions will be made “meeting by meeting” and warned of a bumpy path ahead. She added: “Today’s rate cut reflects the confidence we have in the growth path, but to continue this process, we must wait for analyses to confirm that we are in economic recovery.”

Despite the rate cut, the ECB provided no precise guidance on future moves, stressing that inflationary pressures remain high. Updated forecasts show average inflation of 2.5% for 2024, 2.2% for 2025, and 1.9% for 2026.

Impact on the Labour Market and Economy

The ECB revised its growth forecasts for 2024 upwards, now estimated at 0.9% compared to the 0.6% predicted in March. However, prospects for 2025 were slightly reduced to 1.4%, while those for 2026 remain unchanged at 1.6%. This scenario indicates moderate economic growth in the coming years, with inflation likely to stay above the 2% target until 2025.

Lagarde indicated that wage growth, although still high, is expected to slow down during the year, helping to reduce inflationary pressures. However, rate cuts are likely to slow, with inflation remaining above the ECB’s target for most of 2025. This implies that the ECB will closely monitor various economic indicators to determine future monetary policy.

Consequences of the ECB Rate Cut

The ECB’s rate cut will have several consequences:

  • Reduction in credit costs: Households and businesses will benefit from lower interest rates on loans, thus promoting access to credit and stimulating consumption and investment.
  • Impact on savers: Lower interest rates may penalise savers, reducing returns on bank deposits and government bonds.
  • Stimulus to economic growth: Lower borrowing costs should encourage spending and investment, supporting economic growth. However, the effectiveness of this measure will also depend on global economic conditions and domestic demand.
  • Inflation and wages: The rate cut could influence inflation and wage dynamics. Although Lagarde has signalled that wage growth will slow, inflation may remain high in the short term, further complicating the ECB’s future decisions.

Market Reactions

Financial markets had anticipated the rate cut, pricing in a 25 basis point downward move. Following the rate cut announcement, eurozone government bond yields rose significantly. In particular, the 10-year German bond yield increased by nearly 8 basis points to 2.573%, while the 2-year bond yield rose by just under 6 basis points to 3.033%. Yields on Italian and Spanish 10-year government bonds also rose by 9 and 7 basis points, respectively, to 3.893% and 3.299%.

International Comparison

Despite starting to raise rates later than other central banks, the ECB is now leading with the June cut. The US Federal Reserve, for instance, is still grappling with higher inflation. Other countries like Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland have already started to reduce interest rates in the current cycle.

The ECB has clarified that future moves will depend on economic data and that there is no predetermined path for further rate cuts. With inflation still above target and moderate economic growth, the future of European monetary policy remains uncertain, requiring constant attention and careful assessment of all variables at play.