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ECB Rates: Impact of the Cut on Markets and the Economy

ecb rates

The ECB Cuts Rates for the First Time Since 2019

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a rate cut on Thursday, 6 June, lowering the deposit rate from 4% to 3.75%, the benchmark rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, and the marginal lending rate from 4.75% to 4.50%. This hasn’t happened since 2019.

This decision was made despite inflation forecasts being revised upwards, indicating a slow and irregular path for rate reductions.

Future Interest Rate Decisions

Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, emphasized that future rate decisions will be made “meeting by meeting” and warned of a bumpy path ahead. She added: “Today’s rate cut reflects the confidence we have in the growth path, but to continue this process, we must wait for analyses to confirm that we are in economic recovery.”

Despite the rate cut, the ECB provided no precise guidance on future moves, stressing that inflationary pressures remain high. Updated forecasts show average inflation of 2.5% for 2024, 2.2% for 2025, and 1.9% for 2026.

Impact on the Labour Market and Economy

The ECB revised its growth forecasts for 2024 upwards, now estimated at 0.9% compared to the 0.6% predicted in March. However, prospects for 2025 were slightly reduced to 1.4%, while those for 2026 remain unchanged at 1.6%. This scenario indicates moderate economic growth in the coming years, with inflation likely to stay above the 2% target until 2025.

Lagarde indicated that wage growth, although still high, is expected to slow down during the year, helping to reduce inflationary pressures. However, rate cuts are likely to slow, with inflation remaining above the ECB’s target for most of 2025. This implies that the ECB will closely monitor various economic indicators to determine future monetary policy.

Consequences of the ECB Rate Cut

The ECB’s rate cut will have several consequences:

  • Reduction in credit costs: Households and businesses will benefit from lower interest rates on loans, thus promoting access to credit and stimulating consumption and investment.
  • Impact on savers: Lower interest rates may penalise savers, reducing returns on bank deposits and government bonds.
  • Stimulus to economic growth: Lower borrowing costs should encourage spending and investment, supporting economic growth. However, the effectiveness of this measure will also depend on global economic conditions and domestic demand.
  • Inflation and wages: The rate cut could influence inflation and wage dynamics. Although Lagarde has signalled that wage growth will slow, inflation may remain high in the short term, further complicating the ECB’s future decisions.

Market Reactions

Financial markets had anticipated the rate cut, pricing in a 25 basis point downward move. Following the rate cut announcement, eurozone government bond yields rose significantly. In particular, the 10-year German bond yield increased by nearly 8 basis points to 2.573%, while the 2-year bond yield rose by just under 6 basis points to 3.033%. Yields on Italian and Spanish 10-year government bonds also rose by 9 and 7 basis points, respectively, to 3.893% and 3.299%.

International Comparison

Despite starting to raise rates later than other central banks, the ECB is now leading with the June cut. The US Federal Reserve, for instance, is still grappling with higher inflation. Other countries like Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland have already started to reduce interest rates in the current cycle.

The ECB has clarified that future moves will depend on economic data and that there is no predetermined path for further rate cuts. With inflation still above target and moderate economic growth, the future of European monetary policy remains uncertain, requiring constant attention and careful assessment of all variables at play.

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FED: Interest Rate Predictions for the June 2024 Meeting

FED

What is the FED’s stance on cutting interest rates? Here are analysts’ predictions.

The Federal Reserve (FED) is the central bank of the United States and plays a crucial role in the global financial system. Economists, analysts, and investors worldwide closely monitor every decision it makes, especially regarding interest rates.

But what can we expect from the upcoming FED meeting scheduled for 11-12 June 2024? Analysts predict that the FED will keep interest rates unchanged, but some signals could anticipate future cuts by the end of the year.

What is the FED, and why is it important?

The Federal Reserve, or FED, is the institution that serves as the central bank of the United States. Its role is to stabilise the economy through the management of money and interest rates. Its main functions are controlling inflation, regulating the banking system, and promoting economic stability. The interest rates set by the FED influence the cost of money, i.e., how much it costs to borrow or how much you earn by saving.

The current interest rate situation

FED interest rates have been steady between 5.25% and 5.5% since July 2023. After a year of stability, the FED decided not to increase rates further despite mixed signals on inflation. According to FED Governor Christopher Waller, some inflation reports in the early months of 2024 temporarily cooled expectations of a rate cut. Still, recent consumer price index (CPI) data suggest that inflation is not accelerating.

Analysts’ predictions for the FED June meeting

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the June meeting is just 0.1%. The forecasting site Kalshi also indicates a 99% probability that rates will remain unchanged. However, analysts predict the FED might signal potential rate cuts later in 2024. During the meeting, the “Summary of Economic Projections” will be updated, where monetary policymakers will outline their forecasts for the end of the year.

Impacts on everyday life

The FED’s decisions on interest rates have a direct impact on people’s daily lives. Higher interest rates mean more expensive loans for homes, cars, and businesses and higher returns for savers. Conversely, lower rates make loans cheaper but reduce earnings on savings. For example, 30-year mortgage rates reached an annual high of 7.79% in 2023, then fell to 7.03% by the end of May 2024.

When might a rate cut occur?

According to bond markets, the first rate cut could happen in September 2024, with a 50% probability. A second cut might follow in December. However, these predictions are subject to rapid changes in response to economic data. For example, there is still a 15% probability that there will be no cuts in 2024.

The June FED meeting is highly anticipated, but it is unlikely to bring immediate changes in interest rates. All eyes are on the updated economic projections and the statements from FED Chairman Jerome Powell. The possibility of rate cuts during 2024 will depend on the strength of the labour market and progress in controlling inflation.

The FED’s decisions will continue to have a significant impact on the global economy and the daily lives of millions of people. Monitoring these decisions helps us better understand economic dynamics and make more informed financial decisions.

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Public debt: which are the seven most indebted countries in the world?

public dept ranking countries

Which countries have the highest public debt? Find out the ranking and where your country ranks.

Public debt is one parameter that describes a country’s economic situation. We hear it mentioned everywhere, often in relation to another measure, GDP, which indicates the total productive assets of a state.

Since we are in a capitalist system, the entire global economy is based on debt. It is a kind of sap, indispensable to achieving the main objective imposed by the economic system in which we live: growth. In 2008, however, a technology was born that has the potential to revolutionise the global monetary system. We are talking about Bitcoin; you can read more about it below.

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However, let us return to the central theme of this article: Which are the most indebted states in the world, and thus, which is the ranking of the countries with the highest public debt? 

Public debt: a problem to be tackled

The ranking of countries by public debt has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, not so much by the order of the states in the ranking but by the amount of money they owe their creditors. In 2028, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global debt/GDP ratio will reach 100%. 

This indicator, usually used to analyse an individual state’s economic situation, measures the amount of debt in relation to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), i.e., the total productive assets of a state, over a year.

If the low ratio, GDP is sufficient to repay the annual debt. If, on the other hand, the ratio represents a large gap between debt and GDP, it will mean that production is not enough to repay the debts, and more will have to be demanded, increasing the ratio even further.

The situation is even more serious if we consider the quantitative tightening policies that all major Western governments have implemented since 2022 to combat inflation. Rising interest rates contribute to increasing government debt costs. In other words, the world is sitting on a mountain of debt; global public debt exceeded the worrying $300 trillion mark in March 2024. 

In short, the situation is becoming increasingly critical. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve (the central bank of the United States), recently said that America ‘has embarked on an unsustainable path’ and is ‘borrowing money from future generations’. Could Bitcoin be the protagonist of the next monetary revolution?

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Despite the above and a total public debt of about 34 trillion dollars, the US does not lead the ranking of countries with the highest public debt. Read on for the ranking!

The ranking of the most indebted countries

The ranking of the countries with the highest public debt is compiled using the debt-to-GDP ratio. The nominal value of this measure taken ‘alone’ does not provide information on the real incidence of a state’s debts.

  1. Japan (264%)

Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio. The cause of this debt is the housing bubble that burst in the 1990s.

  1. Venezuela (241%)

Venezuela’s devastating economic, political, and social crisis, which erupted during the second half of the last decade, is still not over, and its third-place ranking in the ranking of countries with the highest public debt testifies to this. According to estimates, some 8 million people have recently left the country due to its very serious conditions.

  1. Sudan (186%)

Third in the ranking of countries in terms of public debt is Sudan, which has been severely affected by an economic crisis caused by internal conflicts. This has resulted in policies of international isolation negatively influenced by corruption.

  1. Greece (173%)

Greece’s avoided default in 2009 is now a distant memory; the country has certainly improved in recent years. In the second quarter of 2023, it was the second fastest-growing country in Europe.

  1. Singapore (168%)

Singapore is an incredibly advanced city-state, especially economically, and boasts one of the highest per capita incomes in the world. Despite having a high public debt, rating agencies continue to rate it with top marks.

  1. Eritrea (164%)

Eritrea is a dictatorship headed by unelected President Isaias Afewerki. In the African state, the authoritarian government has implemented laws that severely restrict civil and political rights. In addition, it imposes long-term compulsory military and civil service, which forces many citizens to flee.

  1. Lebanon (151%)

Lebanon’s economic crisis has been going on for four years. From 2019 onwards, the country’s public debt has grown enormously, reaching 282% of GDP in 2022. In addition, the Lebanese lira is undergoing a major devaluation, currently taking almost 90,000 to reach the value of one US dollar.

  1. Italy (142%)

Our country ranks fifth among the most indebted countries. Italy’s public debt reached a new all-time high in February 2023 and, after falling slightly in August, has been rising again since September.

  1. USA (129%)

The United States is ninth in the ranking of the most indebted countries. Like Italy, it has pursued quantitative tightening policies to combat inflation. One of the weak points of this type of measure concerns debt. As interest rates rise, so do the states’ liabilities.
Now that you know the ranking of the most indebted countries, you can delve deeper by reading our dedicated Academy article. This starts with a simple definition and then deals with the history of Italy’s public debt.

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Falling inflation in France and Italy: early rate cut?

ECB meeting forecast April 2024 after inflation drop

ECB meeting April 2024: interest rates unchanged

The recent drop in inflation rates in France and Italy has ignited a lively debate about possible moves by the European Central Bank (ECB), with much attention focused on the At the last ECB meeting in April 2024, the Governing Council decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged.

This decision came despite the recent drop in inflation rates in France and Italy. In fact, the picture in March sparked a lively debate on possible moves by the European Central Bank, pointing to the possibility of an early rate cut. This discussion comes against a backdrop of Europe actively trying to balance economic growth with controlling inflation, a topic of considerable interest to investors, policy-makers, and consumers.

The European panorama

The eurozone witnessed a significant reduction in inflation in 20 nations, which fell to 2.4% in March. This result exceeded analysts’ expectations, who had forecast a stable inflation rate of 2.6%  

This is consistent with the inflation trend, which has shown a steady decline since its peak of 10.6% in October 2022, driven by pandemic disruptions and geopolitical tensions, particularly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

A further decline is therefore encouraging and marks a moment of optimism, which the ECB meeting in April 2024 confirmed. 

Indeed, the Council pointed out that most measures of core inflation are showing signs of easing, with wage growth moderating gradually and companies beginning to absorb some of the increase in labour costs into their profits.

The demand-pulling effects of previous interest rate hikes, together with tight financing conditions, are helping to moderate inflation. Nevertheless, domestic price pressures remain strong, particularly in the service sector, keeping service price inflation at high levels.

Falling inflation in France

In France, inflation slowed to its lowest level since July 2021, with consumer price growth slowing to 2.3% in March from 3.2% in February, according to the national statistics agency. This was well below economists’ forecasts, which expected a figure of 2.8%, signalling a general slowdown in price increases. In particular:

  • services inflation dropped to 3%
  • that of energy at 3.4% 
  • and a significant decrease in food inflation to 1.7 per cent, with fresh food prices falling by 3.9 per cent year-on-year.

Month-on-month inflation data further confirmed the trend, slowing from 0.9% to 0.3%, indicating a considerable easing of inflationary pressures in the eurozone’s second-largest economy.

Falling inflation in Italy

Italy also reported a lower-than-expected inflation rate for March, with consumer prices rising by 1.3% year-on-year, against forecasts of 1.5%. This moderation was attributed to the end of seasonal clothing sales and price increases in transport services, along with a slowdown in falling energy costs.

ECB rate cut decisions

The interest rates on the main refinancing instruments, the marginal lending facility and deposits will remain fixed at 4.50 %, 4.75 % and 4.00 % respectively. 

Furthermore, according to statements given at the press conference following the meeting, the Council believes that inflation levels in the coming months will still fluctuate around current levels. The decline in inflation will not be linear and will therefore have to be assessed on a case-by-case basis. In all likelihood, the target level of 2% will only be reached next year. 

François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in June, provided inflation continues to fall faster than expected and the economy remains stagnant. He emphasised the importance of not overburdening economic activity by maintaining a tight monetary policy for a prolonged period.

Speaking at a financial event in Barcelona, Pablo Hernández de Cos outlined a scenario where June could see the start of interest rate cuts by the ECB. As Governor of the Bank of Spain, De Cos’ outlook carries significant weight, highlighting a cautious but optimistic approach to the Eurozone economy.

Wage growth and inflation

Despite encouraging signs of cooling inflation, ECB monetary policymakers remain

Despite encouraging signs of cooling inflation, the ECB’s monetary policymakers remain cautious, particularly as wage growth gradually moderates. Companies are starting to absorb some of the increase in labour costs with their profit margins. 

With service sector inflation down only slightly to an annual pace of 3.9% in February, the central bank is taking a measured approach, probably waiting until June to reassess wage pressures and their potential to bring inflation closer to the target.

Market expectations and ECB position

Analysts believe that the biggest complication could come if the US Federal Reserve delays its policy easing to keep up the fight against inflation. For this reason, they believe the ECB will not cut rates before its big sister. 

To the supporters of this interpretation, ECB President Christine Lagarde replies: ‘We are data-dependent, not Fed-dependent’. She adds, ‘We do not speculate what other central banks might do. (…) Different factors drive inflation in the US and the Eurozone. (…) It cannot be assumed that Eurozone inflation will mirror US inflation.”

After the ECB decision, money markets were pricing about a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in June, compared to about an 80% chance earlier on Thursday.

Experts such as Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, suggest that the March inflation data, combined with upcoming information on wage growth and ECB staff forecasts for GDP and inflation, are tilting the narrative towards a first rate cut in June. Kamil Kovar of Moody’s Analytics interprets the latest data as a significant step towards defeating inflation, advocating up to five rate cuts this year.

Perspectives

The ECB’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and to continue with a measured monetary policy reflects a careful assessment of current economic conditions and the inflation outlook. By committing to a flexible and data-driven approach, the ECB underlines its determination to ensure lasting price stability by balancing the needs for economic growth with its responsibility to keep inflation under control. The ECB’s future moves.will be awaited with great interest, as Europe navigates through complex economic challenges, seeking to ensure a sustainable recovery and long-term stability.


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Deciphering the ECB: Interest Rates, Inflation and What it Means for You

Deciphering the ECB: Interest Rates, Inflation and What it Means for You

On 11 April 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to make a decision that could affect the economy across Europe. Recent data showing a surprising drop in inflation rates in France and Italy are growing speculation about a potential interest rate cut. This article explains the basics of the ECB’s role, inflation dynamics, and the possible impacts of upcoming policy decisions.

The European Central Bank explained

The ECB guards monetary stability for the Eurozone countries, ensuring that the euro remains a stable and reliable currency. Its main tool for achieving this goal is manipulating interest rates, a lever that directly influences economic activity across the continent.

The importance of ECB decisions

The ECB’s decisions have repercussions for the entire economy, from the expansion of companies that borrow to invest in their businesses to interest rates on personal savings accounts or mortgages. 

The adjustment of interest rates can, in fact, stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper or, on the contrary, cool an overheated economy. In other words, the health of the economy, reflected in employment rates, business growth, and consumption, is directly influenced by ECB policies.

ECB impact on markets 

The ECB’s decisions affect not only the traditional economy but also the investment world, including cryptocurrencies. 

When the ECB changes interest rates, it affects how people invest their money. If interest rates are low, it costs less to borrow money, which may make investing in stocks or real estate more attractive. On the other hand, if rates rise, keeping one’s savings in bonds with lower risk rates may become cheaper.

Although cryptocurrencies belong to a market that is considered more volatile, they are not insulated from the effects of these policies. The ECB’s decisions may influence investors’ risk appetite: in times of low rates, some may seek higher returns in cryptocurrencies, while in times of higher rates, they may prefer investment options considered safer.

The element that most influence interest rate decisions is inflation. 

The role of inflation and its effects

Inflation measures how much more expensive goods and services have become in a given period. A certain level of inflation is normal and even desired in a healthy economy, as it indicates growth. However, too high or too low inflation can signal trouble, affecting everything from your grocery bill to your savings.

High inflation means your money is not worth as much as before, affecting how households plan their budgets and the future. To manage inflation, central banks such as the ECB adjust interest rates. Lowering rates can encourage spending and investment by making borrowing cheaper while raising rates can help cool a sluggish economy.

How to monitor ECB decisions 

To monitor these dynamics, you can use Young Platform. As an app and on the web, Young Platform offers free membership and publishes updates that allow you to monitor the impact of economic news on cryptocurrency prices in real-time. Additionally, on the Young Platform website, all content, news, and in-depth articles are free, providing a valuable resource for staying informed.

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Another useful strategy is to mark the dates of upcoming ECB meetings on your calendar or follow live press conferences. This allows you to be among the first to understand the ECB’s decisions and how they might affect the market, including cryptocurrency.

The current economic scene

Recently, there was a positive surprise for the Eurozone economy, including in countries such as Italy, France, and Germany. Inflation, i.e., as we have seen, how fast the prices of goods and services such as food, clothes and petrol rise, fell more than everyone expected in March 2024, to 2.4%. Experts thought it would remain at 2.6 per cent. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile components such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, also decreased from 3.1 per cent to 2.9 per cent. This might seem like a small change, but it has great significance.

  • France: inflation slowed down significantly, with declines in the prices of services, energy and food.
  • Italy reported lower-than-expected inflation rates, following a similar trend to France.
  • Germany has the largest economy of all the Eurozone countries and saw prices increase by only 2.2%, the slowest pace in three years. 

When inflation falls, it means that price increases slow down. For people, this might mean that the money they earn ‘lasts longer’ and that they notice fewer price increases when they shop daily. Inflation cooling in more than two major Eurozone economies has led to more speculation about the ECB’s next step.

What would an ECB rate cut signify?

Interest rates influence how much it costs to borrow money. When they are low, people and companies can borrow more easily to buy a house or invest in new projects.

Thus, if the ECB decided to lower short-term interest rates, it could make loans and mortgages cheaper, stimulating economic growth. However, for savers, this could mean lower returns on savings accounts.

Some numbers to watch out for 

Despite the good news, not all sectors are slowing down similarly. Inflation in services, such as restaurants and transport, remained more or less the same, showing that wages can still push up prices in some areas. The ECB needs to consider this carefully, as such an increase could result in a postponement of the interest rate cut.

The labour market 

While discussing inflation and interest rates, we have to consider another important factor for this picture: the labour market. In February 2024, the number of people out of work in the euro area was 6.5 per cent, slightly lower than last year. This means that, despite everything, people are finding jobs, which is a good sign for the economy. However, the forecast for March given by Istat is not the best, with a provisional 7.5% unemployment rate.

The difficult task of the ECB 

Not all Eurozone countries experience the same situations and have the same economic climate. This difference between countries is crucial for the ECB when considering interest rates. It has to ensure that whatever decisions it makes work not only for countries with inflation problems but also for those doing well. The ECB has the complicated task of keeping everything in balance without causing problems in any area.

Conclusion 

All of this affects us closely, from falling inflation to stable unemployment rates and differences between countries. It affects how much the things we buy cost, how easily companies can grow and, ultimately, how many people can find work. While we wait to see what the ECB decides, we can be sure its actions will directly impact our personaleconomy, investments, and jobs.

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ECB meeting: results of the March 2024 conference

ECB September 2024 meeting: interest rate forecasts

This article explores the outcome of the ECB’s March 2024 meeting, scheduled for 7 March 2024, by analysing decisions on interest rates, asset purchase programmes and adjustments in operational frameworks. As the eurozone faces inflationary changes and economic growth trajectories, understanding the ECB’s strategic responses is crucial for financial professionals, investors and policy analysts.

ECB Monetary Policy Decisions  

In a move closely watched by markets and policymakers, the ECB Governing Council kept key interest rates unchanged, reflecting a nuanced approach to the fragile eurozone economic recovery and falling inflation. 

The decision to keep the rates for the primary refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00%, respectively, underlines the ECB’s cautious optimism and commitment to price stability.

This decision is based on a complex economic environment characterised by declining inflation but persistent domestic price pressures, particularly wage growth. 

The latest staff projections indicate a downward revision of inflation rates for the coming years, with an average expectation of 2.3% in 2024. These provide a glimpse of the ECB’s challenges. The figures and softened growth forecasts underline the delicate balance the ECB aims to strike between supporting economic growth and keeping inflation within its target.

APP and PEPP

A significant part of the adjustments to the ECB’s monetary policy instruments concerns the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). The decision to let the APP portfolio decline aligns with a gradual normalisation strategy, moving away from pandemic-era monetary support measures. The gradual reduction of the PEPP portfolio, scheduled to decline by EUR 7.5 billion per month in the second half of 2024, indicates the ECB’s intention to withdraw cautiously from expansionary monetary stimulus, reflecting a response to the improving, albeit still precarious, economic landscape.

The ECB’s approach to refinancing operations was also reviewed. This analysis underlines the ECB’s efforts to refine its monetary instruments better to align them with current and projected economic conditions, ensuring that liquidity provisions to banks are consistent with broader policy objectives.

These programme adjustments are not merely technical changes but signal a deeper transition in the ECB’s policy paradigm. The ECB navigates towards normalisation by carefully scaling back asset purchases and recalibrating refinancing operations while remaining nimble enough to respond to new economic shocks or developments.

Economic Outlook 

The March 2024 meeting also highlighted the ECB’s long-term strategic planning, mainly through changes to its operational framework for implementing monetary policy. 

The sluggish growth forecast in 2024 suggests a euro area grappling with internal and external pressures, from high government debt ratios to global trade uncertainties. However, the anticipated rebound in consumption and investment from 2025 to 2026 reflects confidence in the region’s underlying economic resilience and the expected easing of inflationary pressures.

This section of the ECB report emphasises the role of supportive fiscal and structural policies alongside monetary strategies. The ECB’s call for rapid implementation of the Next Generation EU programme and greater integration in banking and capital markets emphasises the multifaceted approach needed to address current economic challenges and strengthen long-term growth.

Conclusion 

The March 2024 ECB meeting encapsulates a critical moment in the eurozone monetary policy landscape. By maintaining interest rates, refining asset purchase programmes, and refinancing operations, the ECB carefully balances its immediate responses to current economic conditions with its long-term strategic objectives. 

As inflation rates adjust and economic projections evolve, ECB policies will be crucial in shaping the euro area’s path to recovery and stability.

You are currently on the Young Platform blog. Keep yourself updated with macroeconomic events directly on the app and observe their real-time impact on cryptocurrency prices.

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Euro-dollar exchange rate, experts’ forecasts for 2024

Euro-dollar exchange rate forecasts

Experts’ forecasts for the euro-dollar 2024 exchange rate: which currency will be stronger? 

What are the forecasts for the EUR/USD exchange rate in 2024? As always, experts in the currency market and beyond closely monitor the EUR/USD exchange rate. Every movement of the quotation is constantly analysed, as is the continuous strengthening and weakening of one currency against another. For this reason, and because of their interest in the pair, experts make their forecasts on the EUR/USD exchange rate every year. 

Euro-dollar exchange rate: forecast 2024

Before analysing the forecasts on the euro-dollar exchange rate, it is necessary to make a few theoretical clarifications. EUR/USD is the abbreviation for the euro-dollar exchange rate, i.e. the rate that indicates how many dollars are needed to buy one euro. In this currency pair, the euro is the ‘base currency’, and the dollar is the ‘quoted currency’. If, for example, the rate is 1.5, it means that $1.5 corresponds to 1 euro.

Forex investors study the euro-dollar exchange rate, generally used to calculate a currency’s strength. This metric is influenced by central bank monetary policies, such as interest rate rises, and macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation or the bond yield spread between the US and Germany. Specifically, when a central bank raises interest rates, money in circulation decreases, increasing its value.

What do the major investment banks’ forecasts on the euro-dollar exchange rate for 2024 tell us? In general, is the euro expected to continue gaining ground against the dollar, or will we see the opposite scenario?

If you are also interested in digital currencies, Young Platform allows you to check the Euro Bitcoin exchange rate and the rates of the best cryptos on the market. 

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Morgan Stanley’s forecasts

According to Morgan Stanley analysts, unlike in 2023, USD will regain lost ground against EUR in 2024.

Their forecast on the euro-dollar exchange rate sees the pair reaching 1 in the coming months. Therefore, the euro’s descent that began at the end of November 2023 will not stop. 

Bank of America and ING

On the other hand, Bank of America (BoA) expects a still relatively strong euro in 2024. The exchange rate estimate is 1.10 and 1.15 in 2024. Several elements could alter these assumptions, but the main one is related to interest rates. BoA analysts think that the Fed’s rate cut, which will take place, again according to them, from June 2024 onwards, will undermine the strength of the dollar. The lower the rates, the more liquidity there should be in the markets, which would favour investments in riskier assets and a drop in demand for the US currency.   

JPMorgan

JPMorgan’s euro-dollar exchange rate forecast from October begins with the realization that the dollar could return strong in 2024 after the crash of 2022/2023.  

The main cause is the war in the Middle East and the possible increase in energy prices. JP Morgan’s forecast for 2024 has a precise price target: 1.00 in the first months of the year. This would translate into a 7% increase in the dollar’s value. 

ABN AMRO Bank

ABN AMRO Bank economists, on the other hand, raised their forecasts for the euro-dollar exchange rate. The bank expects the Federal Reserve and the ECB to start lowering interest rates with the arrival of the New Year. This hypothetical situation would not favour either currency. The exchange rate is expected to settle at 1.05 at the beginning of the year and reach a high of 1.10 in the final quarter. 

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Who are the richest men in the world?

ranking richest men in the world in 2023

Who are the richest men in the world in 2023? Has Elon Musk retained his supremacy, or has another billionaire undermined him? 

What is the ranking of the richest men in the world in 2023? This ranking is calculated according to net worth, which is the difference between the total value of the goods or assets owned, e.g., cash, investments, real estate, and companies, and the amount of liabilities, especially debts and mortgages.

Forbes compiles the best-known ranking of the world’s richest men annually. The one compiled by the US magazine is one of many. However, there is also the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, which returns the value of the possessions of the world’s wealthiest billionaires in real-time and, for this reason, may change in the coming months.

Although these two rankings show slightly different values in terms of assets, they present virtually the same ranking of the world’s richest men, except for the first position. Discover the 2023 ranking in this article. 

10. Steve Ballmer

In tenth place in the ranking of the world’s richest men is the former CEO of Microsoft, Steve Ballmer. Ballmer was one of the tech company’s first employees; he joined the company founded by Bill Gates in 1980. 

Over the years, he held several key roles within Microsoft, including president from 1998 to 2000. After leaving the company in 2014, he owned the Los Angeles Clippers National Basketball Association (NBA) team. His wealth is approximately $80.7 billion.

9. Mukesh Ambani

Mukesh Ambani is the chairman of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), one of India’s largest companies. RIL manufactures petroleum and petrochemical products, fibres and materials for the textile industry. Its assets are USD 83.4 billion.

8. Carlos Slim Helu

Carlos Slim Helu, a Mexican entrepreneur and philanthropist, is ranked eighth among the 10 richest men in the world. Slim Helu is the president of Grupo Carso, an aggregation of companies operating in the telecommunications, construction, and energy sectors. He owns assets worth USD 93 billion.

7. Micheal Bloomberg

Michael Bloomberg is an American entrepreneur, politician, philanthropist, and activist. He founded Bloomberg LP and was the mayor of New York City for three consecutive terms, from 2002 to 2013. He was also a candidate in the Democratic Party primaries for the US presidential election in 2020. His wealth is approximately $94.5 billion.

6. Bill Gates

The sixth in the ranking of the world’s richest men needs no introduction. The founder of Microsoft has led this ranking for several years, continuously from 1995 to 2009 and in 2014 and 2015. His wealth since 2009 has grown every year. According to Forbes, it is around 104 billion dollars, while according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, it is 114 billion.

5. Warren Buffett

Also in fifth position in the ranking of the world’s richest men is a well-known figure who has been the leader in this ranking twice. Warren Buffet is considered by many to be the best investor ever. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, is the sixth largest company on the planet, with a market capitalisation of $713 billion. The total value of Buffet’s assets is $106 billion according to Forbes and $112 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

4. Larry Ellison

Larry Ellison is a co-founder and former CEO of Oracle, one of the world’s largest software companies. According to Forbes, his wealth is approximately USD 107 billion.

3. Jeff Bezos

The bottom step of the podium of the ranking of the world’s richest men is occupied by the founder and former CEO of Amazon, Jeff Bezos. He left the world’s fifth-largest company in 2021 to devote himself to philanthropy and other projects, such as his charitable fund, to combat climate change and promote environmental sustainability. Bezos has been the richest man in the world on four occasions: in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, and his wealth in 2023 is $14 billion.

2. Elon Musk

Silver medal for South African tycoon Elon Musk. Who has recently knocked off the top step of the podium? The new chairman of Twitter, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, and co-founder of Open AI, the company is developing Chat GPT. 

He was the richest man in the world in 2021 and 2022 and is now vying for the top spot with the owner of the LVMH group. Elon Musk’s wealth of around $188 billion is undergoing significant fluctuations mainly due to the controversial deal to buy Twitter.

1. Bernard Arnault

So, who is the wealthiest individual on the planet? Forbes’ rankings of the world’s richest men and the Bloomberg Billionaires Index agree the answer is: Bernard Arnault. 

The Frenchman is chairman and CEO of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, the world’s largest conglomerate of luxury goods companies, which includes Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, Fendi, Moët & Chandon and Dom Pèrignon. Bernard Arnault’s assets are approximately $218 billion.

And in Italy?

Who is the richest man in Italy? In our country, the ranking has remained unchanged from last year. In first place is still Giovanni Ferrero, president and CEO of the group owned by the Piedmontese company, who also occupies the 27th position in the ranking of the richest men in the world. In second and third place are Luxottica’s Leonardo Del Vecchio and fashion designer Giorgio Armani.

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When is the next ECB meeting? The complete 2024 calendar to monitor

ECB meeting calendar

The 2024 calendar of must-see meetings

When will the next ECB meeting take place? The central bank’s calendar is constantly monitored not only by investors or market experts. Even ordinary Eurozone citizens follow the central bank’s meetings with interest and apprehension, as its decisions can affect households’ portfolios.

Therefore, every ECB meeting is eagerly awaited and preceded by countless predictions about Christine Lagarde’s and the Governing Council’s moves, whose words are constantly scrutinised. Here, then, is the 2024 calendar (and beyond) of meetings to monitor and attend all of the appointments with the Frankfurt institution.

You might also be interested in Deciphering the ECB: Interest Rates, Inflation and What it Means for You.

Next ECB monetary policy meeting: calendar 2024

The ECB’s annual calendar has several appointments. It generally meets twice a month, but monetary policy decisions are discussed only every six weeks. These are the most eagerly awaited meetings because they can influence the financial and other markets. The ECB calendar is, therefore, divided into two parts: the upcoming monetary policy meetings and the non-monetary policy meetings. 

The first category of appointments, which always falls on a Thursday, is followed by the press conference of the institution’s president, Christine Lagarde, who presents what has been decided to the public and journalists.  

What is discussed during each ECB monetary policy meeting? The main topics are generally Eurozone growth and GDP, quantitative tightening, inflation trends, and interest rates. 

Interest rate decisions are significant because they directly impact people’s savings and purchasing power. Rising interest rates, for example, have various consequences, including rising mortgage costs. On the other hand, raising or lowering interest rates is essential for the ECB to fulfil its primary task of keeping prices stable. 

The initial question arises: when is the next ECB meeting? Here is the 2024 calendar of monetary policy meetings:

Except for the October meeting in Ljubljana, every ECB meeting in 2024 will be held in Frankfurt and chaired by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, the institution’s main decision-making body. This consists of President Christine Lagarde, Vice-President Luis de Guindos, four members appointed from among the leading Eurozone countries who hold office for eight years, and the governors of the national central banks.  

After each meeting, investors monitor the markets to gauge the reactions to the European Central Bank’s decisions. Some of these also impact the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, the upcoming ECB meetings, like those of the Fed (Fed calendar 2024), should be watched. On Young Platform, the leading cryptocurrency exchange, you can monitor cryptocurrency prices simultaneously as reports on each ECB meeting. 

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Next ECB non-monetary policy meeting: calendar 2024

The ECB meeting calendar also includes meetings not dealing with monetary policy issues. On these occasions, the other tasks and responsibilities of the European Central Bank, such as banking supervision for the Eurozone, are fulfilled. Here are all the dates of the upcoming meetings: 

  • 21 February 2024
  • 8 May 2024
  • 22 May 2024
  • 19 June 2024
  • 1 July 2024
  • 25 September 2024
  • 13 November 2024
  • 27 November 2024

The General Council also convenes another type of ECB meetings, which have advisory and coordination functions: 

  • 21 March 2024
  • 20 June 2024
  • 26 September 2024
  • 28 November 2024

ECB meeting calendar 2023

To review past meetings and conferences, this is the calendar of every ECB monetary policy meeting held in 2023. Except for the October meeting in Athens, every ECB meeting in 2023 was held in Frankfurt. 

  • 2 February 2023
  • 16 March 2023
  • 4 May 2023
  • 15 June 2023
  • 27 July 2023
  • 14 September 2023
  • 26 October 2023 
  • 14 December 2023

So, the next ECB meeting in 20243 will soon occur, and all eyes are on the possible cut in interest rates. But this year’s calendar of meetings is complete, and there will be plenty of opportunities to discuss the Eurozone economy. 

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The 2024 Fed schedule: when is the next FOMC meeting?

fed meeting schedule

The complete 2024 Fed meeting schedule with all upcoming dates

The Federal Reserve System (Fed) meeting schedule, i.e., the central bank of the United States, has eight annual conferences. These meetings are the equivalent of the meetings of our ECB (here, it is calendar 2024), where monetary policy decisions are made. They are widely followed events because they can influence the course of the financial markets and, in recent times, have become real turning points for the future of the global economy.

Fed meetings: what is decided and by whom 

Before discovering the 2024 Fed meetings calendar, let us see how these appointments work. 

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is the Fed’s operating body and mouthpiece and chairs the meetings. This is comprised of 12 members, including US central bankers and the Fed Chairman. 

The FOMC assesses the financial conditions and monetary policy actions needed to achieve US economic objectives. The interest rate decision was the most decisive factor in this high-inflation period. 

At each Fed meeting on the calendar, a summary of economic projections and the Dot Plot, a chart showing each Fed member’s anonymous forecast of the Fed funds rate position for the past year, the future and the long term, are presented. These appointments are highlighted in the calendar with an asterisk. 

Here is an example of a Dot Plot chart published at the December 2022 Fed meeting. 

Fed meetings scheduled for 2024 

These FOMC meetings are held eight times a year, last two days, followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell. Here is the Fed calendar of all meetings for 2024.

Fed meetings scheduled for 2023

The Fed in 2023 met on these dates: 

  • 31 January – 1 February 2023
  • 21-22 March 2023 *
  • 2-3 May 2023
  • 13-14 June 2023 *
  • 25-26 July 2023
  • 19-20 September 2023 *
  • 31 November-1 December 2023
  • 12-13 December 2023 *

Fed meetings scheduled for 2022

The Fed in 2022 met on these dates: 

  • *25-26 January 2022
  • 15-16 March 2022*.
  • 3-4 May 2022
  • 14-15 June 2022*.
  • 26-27 July 2022
  • 20-21 September 2022*
  • 1-2 November
  • 13-14 December 2022*

Financial players and analysts await the Fed meetings with great interest. The Institute’s decisions play a major role in US monetary policy, but not only that. On several occasions, we have also seen an impact on other markets, such as the cryptocurrency market. That is why keeping an eye on the Fed’s calendar of upcoming meetings can be helpful.

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