Author: Filippo Iachello

What is a Bull Market and Altseason?

Navigating a crypto bull market and altseason can be both exhilarating and challenging for investors. Historically, these cycles have presented significant opportunities, but managing these favourable moments isn’t easy. This guide offers practical strategies to help you approach the bull market and altseason, helping you avoid common pitfalls driven by emotions such as greed and unchecked optimism.

Before diving in, note that while we reference historical data, past events may not replicate exactly in future cycles.

When do Bull Markets and altseasons begin?

Determining when a bull market or an altseason begins takes a lot of work. Typically, each cycle starts with Bitcoin’s price moving upwards, sparking widespread predictions. However, understanding the timing of a market cycle is often more valuable than chasing arbitrary price targets.

Key indicators to monitor include Bitcoin dominance, which reflects BTC’s market weight relative to other cryptos, and the ETH/BTC ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s performance to Ethereum. Another essential metric is the time elapsed since the last Bitcoin halving event, which often correlates with shifts in market phases.

The crypto market cycle and the role of Bitcoin halving

The crypto market cycle is closely tied to Bitcoin’s halving events, which occur approximately every four years. Halving halves the mining rewards, effectively reducing BTC’s supply growth. Each halving has historically set off a new cycle, usually lasting about 1,000 days. Peaks generally occur a year after the previous all-time high (ATH).

Bitcoin’s market cycles usually follow this structure:

• Bull Market: A prolonged upward trend, with BTC leading initially.
• Altseason: Often a sub-phase within a bull market where alternative cryptocurrencies, or “altcoins,” outperform Bitcoin.

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Key phases of a Bull Market

Everyone now knows that we are in a bull market. The price of BTC has just surpassed $90,000 and seems poised to continue rising. However, let’s take a look—drawing on historical data—at the main phases of past bullish cycles.

Phase 1: Bitcoin takes the lead

At the beginning of a bull market, Bitcoin typically absorbs the majority of new liquidity entering the market. Other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, often need help keeping up with Bitcoin’s explosive gains.

Phase 2: Ethereum gains momentum

Once Bitcoin’s price stabilises or reaches a local peak, liquidity matures into Ethereum. This marks the beginning of Ethereum’s outperformance relative to Bitcoin, often accompanied by gains in promising altcoins.

Phase 3: altseason begins

As Ethereum gains traction, confidence in higher-cap altcoins rises, igniting altseason. In recent cycles, altcoins with lower market capitalisations have experienced significant price increases during this period, driven by a renewed interest in diversifying beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

During the last bull market, the undisputed standouts were Solana (SOL), which rose by +1,200% from May to November 2021, and Avalanche (AVAX), which increased by +1,500% from June to December 2021.

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Phase 4: altseason peaks

The end of altseason often coincides with high-risk, explosive price movements in smaller, less established cryptocurrencies. This period is high in FOMO (fear of missing out) and requires caution. Once prices start to decline, it may signal the end of the bull market, and holding riskier assets can lead to substantial losses.

Why Ethereum often lags behind Bitcoin early in the cycle

Ethereum’s initial lag behind Bitcoin has become even more pronounced in recent cycles. This disparity is largely due to Bitcoin’s status as the most established and “safer” asset within the crypto space. During the early stages of a bull market, investors typically favour Bitcoin over altcoins, including Ethereum. This preference has been amplified with the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs by major investment funds, enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as a lower-risk investment.

A concept called “capital rotation” explains this pattern: initially, liquidity flows into Bitcoin, and as Bitcoin stabilises, investors begin to allocate funds to Ethereum and, later, other altcoins. For this reason, tracking Bitcoin dominance and the ETH/BTC ratio is crucial, as they often provide early signals of altseason onset.

Historical Timeline of Market Cycles

Examining the timing of previous cycles is helpful for effectively managing a bull market and all seasons. While exact patterns don’t repeat, they can offer valuable insights into potential timelines.

2017 Bull Market

• Halving Date: 11 July 2016, BTC price at $650.
• First ATH Post-Halving: 225 days later, on 21 February 2017, at $1,115.
• Peak ATH: 297 days after halving, on 15 December 2017, at $19,000.
• Overall Return: Approximately +2,800% from ATH to ATH.

2020 Bull Market

• Halving Date: 11 May 2020, BTC price at $9,000.
• First ATH Post-Halving: 216 days later, on 13 December 2020, at $19,200.
• Peak ATH: 330 days post-halving, on 8 November 2021, at $69,000.
• Overall Return: +259% from ATH to ATH.

2024 Bull Market

• Halving Date: 22 April 2024, BTC price around $65,000.
• First ATH Post-Halving: 195 days later, on 5 November 2024, BTC reached $80,000.
• Speculative Projection: Bitcoin might reach the peak ATH for this cycle around September 2025 if history repeats.

Ethereum’s Timeline

Ethereum, launched in 2015, has less historical data, but in the previous bull market, it exceeded its ATH from January 2018 to January 2021. If the pattern holds, Ethereum could reach a new ATH soon.

Conclusion 

A disciplined approach to timing and strategy can be a significant advantage during bull markets and altseasons. Remember that while the crypto market tends to follow cyclical patterns, these cycles don’t guarantee identical outcomes. Tracking market indicators like Bitcoin dominance and the ETH/BTC ratio can be instrumental in spotting the onset of altseason. However, as the end of the cycle nears, it’s essential to reassess exposure to high-risk assets to avoid potential losses when the market reverses.

Stay mindful of these cycles, adapt strategies accordingly, and remember to balance optimism with caution.

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Donald Trump is the new president of the United States

Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election and returned to the White House. His decisive victory reflects a clear shift in American priorities, with voters drawn to his tough stance on immigration, expansive economic policies, and a more isolationist foreign policy. Trump will officially take office in January 2025, ready to lead with a strengthened Republican majority in Congress. Here’s a closer look at his win and what his administration could mean for America’s future.

How did Donald Trump win the presidency?

The U.S. electoral system is indirect, meaning American citizens do not elect the president directly. Instead, each state appoints a set of “electors” based on population. With 538 total electors nationwide, a candidate needs a majority—at least 270—to win.

In the U.S., most states operate under a “winner-takes-all” rule, meaning that the candidate who receives the majority of votes in a state claims all its electors (with Maine and Nebraska as exceptions). Key swing states—including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—played a critical role in Trump’s victory. Traditionally unpredictable, these states were ultimately decisive in the election outcome.

The role of swing states in Trump’s victory

Until election night, polling showed a close race, with neither candidate emerging as a clear frontrunner. However, in the early morning, Trump claimed enough swing states to clinch victory. With its 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania was particularly important, where Trump won by a slim 2% margin. He also secured North Carolina with 51% and Georgia with 50.7%.

Currently, as votes are still being counted in a few remaining states, Trump has a solid lead with 266 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’s 219. He is also leading in other key states, meaning a Trump presidency is almost certain.

Key policies in Donald Trump’s agenda: immigration, economy, and foreign affairs

Now that Trump is set to lead, his platform promises significant changes. Americans voted for a shift in direction, so what does Trump’s agenda entail? His policies have been designed to appeal to a conservative base and are likely to have a broad impact given the Republican majority in Congress. This means he will have substantial freedom to enact his plans, both economically and socially.

Immigration: tighter policies and enforcement

Trump has pledged to take strong action on immigration, a top concern for 61% of Americans. His rhetoric on the campaign trail has been strict, portraying immigrants as a source of crime and economic burden. Trump’s vice president, J.D. Vance, has even suggested that the administration could pursue one of the largest deportation plans in recent history. This policy could lead to a major crackdown on immigration, though Trump will need to consider constitutional protections.

Economy: protectionist policies and crypto-friendly initiatives

On the economic front, Trump has promised protectionist policies, including tariffs aimed at reducing dependence on foreign goods, particularly from China. His approach could lead to what some experts call a “trade war,” potentially impacting international markets and raising prices domestically, which could further strain inflation rates.

Trump’s stance on cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, has drawn attention. His administration has hinted at using U.S.-held Bitcoin reserves to bolster the national economy and supporting BTC mining in the U.S. The initial market reaction has been positive, with Bitcoin surging to an all-time high of $75,000 following the election news. Some states, like Florida, have already supported Bitcoin, proposing to include it in public pension funds. Other areas, like Michigan and Wisconsin, have begun to invest in Bitcoin ETFs.

Foreign policy: a shift toward isolationism

Regarding international relations, Trump’s foreign policy is expected to take an isolationist approach. He has indicated that he may scale back economic support to Ukraine, potentially destabilising U.S. relations with NATO allies. During Biden’s presidency, the U.S. gave Ukraine approximately $174 billion in aid. Trump’s stance could mean a significant shift, reducing American involvement in global conflicts and focusing on domestic priorities instead.

Trump’s administration has also signalled support for Israel in the Middle East but may reduce the scope of U.S. involvement. His approach could reshape U.S. alliances, especially in Europe, where many countries rely on U.S. support for strategic stability.

What’s next for Trump’s America?

As Donald Trump prepares to re-enter the White House, America is set for substantial changes. His policies on immigration, the economy, and foreign relations reflect a bold vision aimed at strengthening U.S. interests and security, albeit with potential challenges in terms of international diplomacy and market stability.

Stay updated on the latest in U.S. politics and policy changes with Young Platform, where expert insights keep you informed about key developments in America and beyond.

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The FED meeting on 7 November: the US central bank cut rates by 25 basis points. Discover the impact on markets and future rate expectations

The Federal Reserve met on 7 November 2024 to decide on interest rates. Since the FOMC did not meet in October, what happened after the 50 basis point cut in September? Could the combination of Donald Trump’s victory and the reduction in the cost of money further boost the price of Bitcoin?

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Economic indicators are influencing Fed decisions.

Before analysing what happened at the 7 November 2024 FED meeting, it is good to list the economic indicators that the US central bank assesses before deciding on interest rates.

One of the main objectives of the Fed’s monetary policy is to contain inflation. When prices rise excessively, the central bank raises interest rates to curb and stabilise demand. From August to October, the consumer price index (CPI), the main indicator used to estimate inflation, fell 50 basis points to an annual rate of 2.4 %, down from 2.9 %. 

This slowdown in inflation was made possible by the restrictive monetary policies implemented by most Western countries in the past two years. Since, today, the situation seems to be under control, central banks are proceeding with progressive interest rate cuts in order to stimulate the economy after having previously cooled it down.

Employment and, thus, the health of the labour market also plays an important role in the Fed’s decisions. In recent months, the unemployment rate has been stable at around 4.2%, but if it had risen, it would have been necessary to intervene with a tighter plan of interest rate cuts. However, since this did not happen, the Fed could, and probably will, proceed gradually.

Finally, when the Fed decides on interest rates, it also considers Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Excessively fast economic growth may fuel inflation, while weak growth may suggest the need for economic stimulus, such as rate cuts. In October, economic growth in the US slowed, and the Fed responded with a 25 basis point rate cut.

Has the election of Donald Trump affected rates?

The election of Donald Trump did not affect the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, whose decision was in line with expectations on interest rates. Some experts thought that the FED might leave rates unchanged given the new US president’s willingness to apply tariffs on goods from abroad, particularly from China, which might raise inflation again in the future.

However, the majority still expected a 25 basis point cut, which, in fact, happened. Polymarket, the crypto world’s leading prediction market, effectively summarised the consensus view, which, as with the presidential election, guessed correctly.

Gregory Daco, Chief Economist of Ernest Young, one of the world’s leading consulting firms, was also of this view, stating on Wednesday: “Declining inflation and wage and productivity growth should favour a gradual recalibration of the Fed’s monetary policy with a 25 basis point rate cut after the election.”

November 2024 FED meeting: the impact on the market

It is very difficult to estimate the possible impact of the rate cut at the Fed’s meeting on 7 November 2024, mainly because it comes after the two most important days of the year. Wednesday saw the conclusion of the US elections, in which Donald Trump emerged as the winner, who will return to Capitol Hill after the Democratic interlude of the last four years.

Had Kamala Harris won, the situation would probably have been different. Still, the Republicans in power from January onwards will be the ones who have also won a majority in Congress. What has happened and all the promises associated with a new Trump mandate have caused the price of major assets, especially Bitcoin and Tesla shares, to explode upwards. Less than twenty minutes after the opening of the markets, spot ETFs on Bitcoin recorded $1 billion in volume, while on the day of 7 November, the absolute record of capital inflows was $1.38 billion.

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However, the last word has yet to be said. Regarding the crypto world, what happened this week seems to have rekindled the bull market, which was abruptly interrupted in April after the all-time highs (ATH) were reached—historical highs which, again, have been updated in recent hours. Analysing the stock market, one can see that the main indices, above all, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, have been recording bullish price movements at a very sustained pace for quite some time.

In short, the million-dollar question related to the FED meeting on 7 November is one: will the interest rate cut make the markets rise further, especially Bitcoin? Or will the major assets slow down after the bull run of the last few days?

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How is the stock market faring, and what can we expect in Q4 2024? An analysis based on BlackRock’s quarterly report

BlackRock’s latest quarterly report on the stock market opens with a thought-provoking quote from Tony DeSpirito, the Global Chief Investment Officer: “The economy is not the stock market. And that’s good news.” This line suggests that the stock market may not necessarily follow suit even if the real economy slows down. Here, we break down BlackRock’s outlook for the stock market over the final quarter of 2024.

Stock Market: General Observations

The fourth quarter of 2024 promises to be a dynamic period for both the stock market and cryptocurrencies. BlackRock analysts predict that risk assets may experience heightened volatility, driven primarily by the upcoming U.S. elections and central banks’ potential rate cuts, especially by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Overall, BlackRock’s experts anticipate that rate cuts could bolster the stock market and create fresh investment opportunities.

However, the third quarter of 2024 was also marked by significant volatility, largely due to concerns over economic deceleration and recession risks. The Fed’s seemingly delayed response to these issues has added to market uncertainties. Despite these challenges, BlackRock’s report underscores that the fundamentals of the stock market have remained strong.

Two Sides of Volatility

The report delves into the topic of volatility, a critical factor in understanding the stock market’s outlook for the months ahead. BlackRock’s analysts remind us that while investor sentiment can move markets in the short term, fundamentals ultimately prevail over time. Investors should therefore stay focused on long-term value creation, even if the coming months bring sharp price swings.

Tony DeSpirito elaborates on the benefits of volatility with four key insights:

1. Volatility can be advantageous: Market corrections allow investors to increase their exposure to high-quality assets, particularly when these price drops stem from sentiment-driven events that don’t alter the asset’s underlying fundamentals. By taking advantage of dips, investors may strengthen their portfolios.
2. Volatility is normal: The stock market has always relied on its ups and downs to recover from major downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis. BlackRock expects a similar scenario in the coming months, with peaks in volatility likely due to the Fed’s decisions.
3. Market corrections are common: Over the past 35 years, the S&P 500 has experienced 20 corrections of over 10%, yet it has delivered an average annual return of +14%. The takeaway is clear: investing with a long-term perspective can help investors ride out market fluctuations effectively.
4. Higher volatility can yield better returns: BlackRock’s data show that periods of increased volatility often lead to superior returns when the Volatility Index (VIX) remains below 12 points and six-month returns for the S&P 500 average around 5%. However, when the VIX hits 29 or higher, these returns jump to 16%. In short, volatility can drive short-term returns.

U.S. Elections and Their Impact on the Stock Market

The November U.S. elections are another major event that could influence the stock market this quarter. BlackRock has analysed how previous elections have affected stock performance, concluding that while election results often cause immediate price swings, the longer-term effects tend to be muted. Since 1996, only two out of seven elections have triggered post-election volatility lasting more than eleven months.

BlackRock’s message is clear: even during times of political uncertainty, investors should maintain a long-term view. History shows that the market has overcome many challenges since 1974, from presidential resignations to stagflation, the 1987 crash, the dot-com bubble, the 2008 crisis, and COVID-19. Patience, it seems, remains an invaluable virtue in the world of investing.

The Impact of Fed Rate Cuts

BlackRock’s report also explores the potential impact of Fed rate cuts on the stock market. The analysis confirms that stock markets tend to perform well when rates are reduced, especially if these cuts do not coincide with a recession. Historically, large-cap stocks have typically outperformed smaller-cap stocks for up to three years following the first rate cut.

When broken down by sector, the report shows that healthcare and consumer goods stocks tend to experience above-average growth in the year following an initial rate cut. This insight could benefit investors seeking defensive exposure in an uncertain environment.

And What About the Crypto Market?

In recent months, BlackRock and its CEO, Larry Fink, have shown a growing interest in cryptocurrency. BlackRock’s latest report highlights Bitcoin’s unique potential as a portfolio diversifier. Unlike traditional stock market assets, Bitcoin is largely uncorrelated with equities, which can provide additional resilience to a portfolio. Bitcoin’s rallies tend to be more explosive, offering investors a high-growth asset option with its own distinctive cycle.

Thanks to its secure, immutable blockchain technology, Bitcoin is viewed as a reliable store of value. Its Proof of Work system ensures that thousands of nodes and miners verify each transaction, providing unmatched security. This immutability and transparency set Bitcoin apart, cementing its position as a unique alternative asset for long-term investors.

Conclusion

The fourth quarter of 2024 presents both challenges and opportunities for the stock market. Investors can expect volatility to continue with the upcoming U.S. elections, potential rate cuts by the Fed, and ongoing global economic shifts. However, BlackRock’s analysis suggests that a long-term perspective and focus on fundamentals can help investors make the most of these market conditions.

Download the Young Platform app for more insights on the stock market and how to navigate Q4. Stay informed with our weekly updates and make smart choices for your portfolio in the dynamic investing world.

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Bitcoin’s price surges on Chinese economic stimulus measures and strong ETF inflows. What’s next for Bitcoin this October?

Bitcoin has recently shown a surprising upturn, closing September with an impressive 8% increase. This performance defies the usual trend, as September is typically a weak month for the cryptocurrency. The drivers behind this growth are strong ETF inflows and significant liquidity injections from China, which have sparked optimism across global markets.

China Injects Capital and Cuts Repo Rates

Last Wednesday, China’s central bank announced a reduction in its interbank lending rates (repo rate) from 1.95% to 1.85%, complemented by a $10 billion liquidity injection and a 50-basis-point cut in the required reserve ratio (RRR) for banks. This move appears to be part of a larger economic stimulus package aimed at revitalising the economy with an anticipated ¥1 trillion (around $150 billion) in increased credit availability for banks.

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This intervention seeks to counteract key economic challenges, including deflation driven by low consumer demand, a struggling real estate market, and high public debt. The effects have been immediate, with Asian stock indices like Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Shanghai’s SSE surging 14% and 20%, respectively, since Thursday. This positive momentum also boosted the U.S. and crypto markets, although Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have since eased, with BTC down by about 3% today.

China’s liquidity boost not only lifted Asian financial markets but also generated optimism among global investors. The repo rate cut and other measures are expected to increase the global money supply, with many analysts speculating that a portion of this liquidity may flow into riskier assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies, in the coming weeks.

Impact on Investor Sentiment and Bitcoin’s Price

Bitcoin’s recent price surge is also tied to rising inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, further strengthening investor confidence. Last Friday, ETF inflows reached nearly $500 million, a level not seen since July. This significant capital flow into Bitcoin funds suggests renewed market optimism after prolonged stagnation.

Ethereum has also shown promising signs, with ETF inflows totalling $150 million over the past four trading days. This uptick comes after two challenging months for Ethereum ETFs, hinting at a potential shift in sentiment for the broader crypto market.

Will October Bring Renewed Momentum?

Despite minor pullbacks over the past 24 hours, optimism persists across markets. As we enter October, a historically bullish month for Bitcoin (often dubbed “Uptober”), will this mark the beginning of a sustained uptrend after over six months of sideways movement?Download the Young Platform app to stay updated on Bitcoin’s market dynamics and the global economic factors influencing cryptocurrency prices. Follow our weekly updates to stay ahead in the world of crypto investing.

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